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ARST

Arkansas State 27 at Texas State 45

TXST
2014 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2014 · Bobcat Stadium (TX)
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Win probability · TXST
modelTXST aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTXST scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:36 · Will Johnson punt for 66 yds , Rocky Hayes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior−12.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Time remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:31: C.J. Best 70 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Will Johnson Kick) — TXST win probability +9.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:00: Robert Lowe 9 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick) — TXST win probability +16.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:19: Booker Mays 26 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Logan Spry Kick) — ARST win probability +13.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:06: Robert Lowe 24 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick) — TXST win probability +10.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:29: Johnston White 1 Yd Run (Logan Spry Kick) — ARST win probability +8.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 8ARST made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 11:58ARST 4th & 6 at TXST 21, tied
    Close callWent for it · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:36TXST 4th & 4 at TXST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:28ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:04TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:32ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:56TXST 4th & 10 at ARST 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.9%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:54ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:42ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:23TXST 4th & 3 at ARST 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:48TXST 4th & 15 at TXST 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:04ARST 4th & 3 at TXST 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%−0.7
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:46ARST 4th & 2 at TXST 2, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.8%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−10.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:35ARST 4th & 8 at TXST 33, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    28.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:06TXST 4th & 5 at ARST 8, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−6.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:03ARST 4th & 9 at TXST 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−1.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−8.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:07ARST 4th & 9 at ARST 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:15TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 37, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:54ARST 4th & 8 at TXST 30, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:24ARST 4th & 8 at TXST 16, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TXST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 0:28TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:06ARST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:18TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:31TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:00TXST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:19ARST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:06TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:29ARST Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:43TXST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:5764% → 63%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.2%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 14:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
36.3%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
36.5%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
36.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 7 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
36.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+31
36.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 31 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
36.6%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
36.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-1
36.8%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 26Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+5
37.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+5
37.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 5 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3338% → 38%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
37.5%
Terrence Franks run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
37.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
37.5%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+3
37.5%
Will Johnson punt for 44 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2762% → 61%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
37.6%
Johnston White run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-7
37.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 36 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+4
38.0%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 9:41
3RD & 14
OWN 30
0
38.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
38.7%
Stephen Hogan punt for 54 yds, downed at the TexSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3738% → 38%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
38.4%
C.J. Best run for 3 yds to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-2
38.4%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 17Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+5
38.3%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 5 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 4
OWN 22
-2
38.3%
Will Johnson punt for 66 yds , Rocky Hayes returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:5761% → 60%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
38.8%
Michael Gordon run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
38.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 5 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-5
38.7%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-5
39.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Alan Wright) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 6:08
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+10
39.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 10 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+37
39.9%
Stephen Hogan punt for 37 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1840% → 40%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
39.8%
Tyler Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
39.7%
Terrence Franks run for 5 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+3
39.7%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
39.8%
Will Johnson punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2260% → 59%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
40.1%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+7
40.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
40.5%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
40.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 1:5942% → 49%
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.8%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Lawrence WhiteSimilar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
41.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 1
50
+6
42.9%
Tyler Jones run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
43.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 34 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
44.0%
Robert Lowe run for no gain to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
44.3%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
48.8%
Demun Mercer 2 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Jason Dann Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.5%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted David Mims return for no gain to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:1649% → 50%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
48.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 2 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+25
49.2%
C.J. Best run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Money Hunter) to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
49.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 2 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q2 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+19
50.2%
Tyler Jones run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
50.7%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-1
51.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
50.9%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
50.0%
Jason Dann 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:3850% → 60%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
49.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 21 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
48.7%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
48.2%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
40.4%
Blake Mack 47 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Logan Spry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:1646% → 54%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
46.1%
Terrence Franks run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
46.3%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 40 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexStSimilar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+12
46.1%
C.J. Best run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
47.3%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+26
54.0%
Robert Lowe 26 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0849% → 46%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
51.0%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-7
51.4%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Karee Berry for a loss of 7 yards to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
53.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-2
54.1%
Stephen Hogan punt for 58 yds , Brandon McDowell returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 2:1153% → 65%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
53.1%
Robert Lowe run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+2
53.6%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 18 Tyler Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
54.8%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-2
55.4%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 20Similar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+10
54.7%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
56.2%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+70
65.2%
C.J. Best 70 Yd pass from Tyler Jones (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4436% → 34%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
64.4%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, False Start (Alan Wright) to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+7
64.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
65.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:48
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
65.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q2 5:42
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
65.9%
Stephen Hogan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:2867% → 85%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
66.8%
Tyler Jones sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 5:09
2ND & 12
OPP 34
+33
67.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 18 yds to the TEXSTATE 48 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Money Hunter) to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
68.5%
C.J. Best run for 19 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
69.0%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
85.4%
Robert Lowe 9 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 1:2720% → 33%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
81.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 9 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
80.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
81.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+8
81.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 8 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+26
67.5%
Booker Mays 26 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Logan Spry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:4571% → 73%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
71.1%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+10
71.2%
Robert Lowe run for 10 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
72.2%
Robert Lowe run for 12 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
73.2%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+4
73.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 4 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
73.1%
Will Johnson punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
72.8%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0373% → 72%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
73.0%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 17Similar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 18
OWN 17
+3
73.0%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
73.4%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
72.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 13:48
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
71.9%
Will Johnson punt for 55 yds, downed at the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21FG
13 plays · 73 yds · 3:5227% → 31%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 13:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
71.4%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
72.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 13 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
71.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Blake Mack for 12 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
71.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
70.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
70.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+5
72.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+9
73.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 9 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
71.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
73.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q3 9:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+18
69.4%
Logan Spry 18 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
72.5%
Robert Lowe run for 14 yds to the TexSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3733% → 28%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
67.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
67.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
69.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q3 8:35
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-5
71.8%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Jeff Banks for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 5:2175% → 86%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
74.9%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
75.7%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
74.9%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
76.4%
Tyler Jones run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
76.7%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
77.1%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+4
76.6%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for no gain to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
78.5%
Tyler Jones run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
79.1%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+3
79.4%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-3
79.0%
Tyler Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
85.8%
Will Johnson 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 2:4617% → 20%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
83.3%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Will Trevillion) to the ArkSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
82.4%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
50
+9
82.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
82.3%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40Similar
Q3 1:38
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
82.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+14
83.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 24 yds to the TexSt 13 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Dijon Paschal) to the TexSt 23Similar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 6
OPP 23
0
81.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+10
82.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 10 yds to the TexSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
82.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 1 yd to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
82.6%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the TexSt 12Similar
Q3 0:07
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
85.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q3 0:03
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+28
79.8%
Logan Spry 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 26TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 1:4384% → 96%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
83.5%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+19
83.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 19 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
84.5%
Franks, Terrence rush for 3 yards to the TEXSTATE49, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding (Romero, Felix) 10 yards to the TEXSTATE36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+8
84.1%
Tyler Jones run for 8 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+14
84.7%
Robert Lowe run for 14 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+18
85.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 18 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
96.1%
Robert Lowe 24 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:486% → 4%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
94.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
94.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
95.6%
Stephen Hogan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Craig Mager at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4296% → 97%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.3%
Tyler Jones run for no gain to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
96.3%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+3
96.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Will Johnson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 29TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:374% → 12%
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
96.2%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+9
96.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
96.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 6 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+15
96.4%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Paschal, Dijon, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (Mims, David) 15 yards to the TEXSTATE45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARKST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
96.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 25 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
95.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 5 yds to the TexSt 15Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
96.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+11
96.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 11 yds to the TexSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
96.3%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q4 5:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
Johnston White 1 Yd Run (Logan Spry Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 30TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:2093% → 99%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
92.5%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+11
93.3%
Robert Lowe run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
94.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-2
94.1%
C.J. Best run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 13
50
+50
98.7%
Robert Lowe 50 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 31DOWNS
17 plays · 59 yds · 3:002% → 2%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 9 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
98.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 10 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
98.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-8
98.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 7 yds to the TEXSTATE 49 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Blake Mack) to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 18
OWN 36
0
98.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 18
OWN 36
+20
98.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 20 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
98.1%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+3
97.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
97.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
97.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 2 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
98.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Booker MaysSimilar
Q4 0:54
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+12
98.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 12 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
97.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
98.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
98.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q4 0:24
4TH & 8
OPP 16
0
98.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:00
Robert Lowe 9 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)
+16.3
TD · Q2 2:19
Booker Mays 26 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Logan Spry Kick)
-13.8
TD · Q4 13:06
Robert Lowe 24 Yd Run (Will Johnson Kick)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com