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TXST

Texas State 54 at Georgia State 31

GAST
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-0.8GAST 0.3%Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted for aTD David Mims return for 60 yds for aTD (Will Johnson KICK)AWAY 54 - HOME 31 · Q4 0:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:40 · Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted for a TD David Mims return for 60 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Home team on offense−51.6Pregame prior−0.3Score differential−29.5Garbage-time factor−20.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−8.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:23: Tyler Jones run for 13 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +3.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:13: Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 9 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +9.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:08: Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 14 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +4.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:35: Tyler Jones run for 15 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK) — TXST win probability +4.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:22: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 75 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +3.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 1 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 9:50GAST 4th & 3 at TXST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:14TXST 4th & 4 at GAST 4, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:14GAST 4th & 13 at GAST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:56TXST 4th & 3 at GAST 11, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.8%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:23GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:19TXST 4th & 5 at GAST 19, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:18TXST 4th & 14 at GAST 14, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:40TXST 4th & 6 at GAST 47, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:39TXST 4th & 8 at GAST 29, up 16
    Close callWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q2 10:23TXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:13TXST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:08TXST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:35TXST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:22GAST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:23GAST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:12TXST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:40GAST Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:24GAST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:40TXST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 5:1023% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
23.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 7 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
23.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 9 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+3
23.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
23.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 8 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+10
23.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
23.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 7 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+16
23.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 16 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
23.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the TexSt 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
23.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 3 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
23.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
26.3%
Wil Lutz 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 2FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:3674% → 73%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
26.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
25.9%
Robert Lowe run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
25.9%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
25.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
50
+5
25.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brice Gunter for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+18
25.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 18 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
25.6%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+8
25.6%
C.J. Best run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
25.6%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
25.6%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 4Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
25.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brice GunterSimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
27.4%
Will Johnson 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
28.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Emiere Scaife for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-15
27.8%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Harden, Donovan for 14 yards to the GSU45 (Mager,Craig), PENALTY GSU personal foul 15 yards to the GSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+6
27.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 6 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
27.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 2:5871% → 72%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
28.7%
Tyler Jones run for 17 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
27.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
27.9%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
27.7%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
27.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ryan Carden for 17 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
27.6%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+5
27.6%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+1
28.2%
Tyler Jones run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
27.7%
Will Johnson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
28.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
27.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Marcus Caffey for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
28.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 32 yds , Craig Mager returns for 7 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 6TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 3:2472% → 77%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
27.7%
Robert Lowe run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
27.4%
Robert Lowe run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-3
27.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+12
27.8%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
27.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 12 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
26.8%
Robert Lowe run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
26.8%
Tyler Jones run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 13Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
23.4%
Tyler Jones run for 13 yds for a TD, (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.5%
Gerald Howse run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
23.7%
Glenn Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
23.5%
Nick Arbuckle run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
23.4%
Wil Lutz punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 8TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 4:0876% → 86%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
24.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 11 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
23.8%
C.J. Best run for 1 yd to the TexSt 36Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
23.7%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 3 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+11
23.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
50
+6
23.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+7
23.0%
Tyler Jones run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
23.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 7 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+20
22.9%
C.J. Best run for 20 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
22.9%
Robert Lowe run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
13.6%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 9 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9INT
12 plays · 38 yds · 1:3217% → 17%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.8%
Marcus Caffey run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
17.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 4 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
17.4%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Michael Odiari for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 11
OWN 36
-5
16.0%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+12
15.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Marcus Caffey for 12 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+9
16.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
17.2%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+5
17.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
17.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 2 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+21
17.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Craig Mager return for 21 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 0:2489% → 93%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
11.4%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Ben Ijah for 19 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
10.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 21 yds to the GeoSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
6.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 14 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
9.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:2592% → 96%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+33
8.4%
Robert Lowe run for 33 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+18
8.0%
Robert Lowe run for 18 yds to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
7.7%
Terrence Franks run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+3
7.7%
Tyler Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
7.7%
Terrence Franks run for no gain to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
3.7%
Tyler Jones run for 15 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
7.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 75 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 14FG
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:0394% → 96%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
6.4%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+34
6.5%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 34 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.1%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Ben IjahSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
6.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Bradley Miller for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+11
6.2%
Terrence Franks run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
5.9%
Tyler Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+5
5.9%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 5 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
6.1%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-4
6.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+36
3.6%
Will Johnson 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
3.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
3.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
3.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert (Mager,Craig), PENALTY TXST pass interference 8 yards to the GSU39, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
3.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Marcus CaffeySimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
3.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+10
3.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 10 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.1%
Lynquez Blair pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
4.0%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the GeoSt 49 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, forced by Michael Odiari, recovered by TexSt Michael OdiariSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:4898% → 99%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
2.1%
Lowe,Robert rush for 1 yard to the GSU48 (Allen, Antreal), PENALTY TXST holding 10 yards to the TXST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+13
2.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
2.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for no gain to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+13
2.2%
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 13 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
2.1%
Robert Lowe run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+2
1.8%
Robert Lowe run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
2.1%
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 12 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-4
2.1%
Robert Lowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
0
1.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Bradley MillerSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
1.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to C.J. Best, broken up by Tarris BatisteSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
1.2%
Will Johnson 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:552% → 3%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.5%
Robert Davis run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
1.5%
Marcus Caffey run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
1.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+14
1.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 14 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
1.7%
Donovan Harden run for 13 yds to the TexSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
1.8%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 29
0
0.9%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the TexSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+11
0.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the TexSt 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+12
0.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 12 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
3.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 6 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:1198% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
1.7%
Robert Lowe run for 5 yds to the TexSt 36Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
1.6%
Robert Lowe run for 15 yds to the GEORGIAST 49 TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (-11 Yards) to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+60
0.4%
Terrence Franks run for 60 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:320% → 2%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
0.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
0.4%
Gerald Howse run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
0.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
0.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Keith Rucker for 5 yds to the TexSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
0.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 5 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+39
2.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Glenn Smith for 39 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
1.0%
Terrence Franks run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
1.0%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
1.0%
Tyler Jones pass complete to David Lewis for 3 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
1.1%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
1.1%
Will Johnson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 4:002% → 4%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
1.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+9
1.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
1.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
1.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd Boyd, broken up by Craig MagerSimilar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+34
1.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 34 yds to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
1.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
1.9%
Gerald Howse run for 6 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+8
1.9%
Nick Arbuckle run for 8 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
2.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Glenn SmithSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+10
2.0%
Gerald Howse run for 10 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 6 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 15 yds · 1:4598% → 99%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
1.9%
Tim Gay run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+11
1.8%
Terrence Franks run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
1.8%
Terrence Franks run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+1
1.6%
Terrence Franks run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 7
OPP 28
-1
1.7%
Terrence Franks run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 8
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Tyler Jones pass incomplete to Terrence FranksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23INT TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:551% → 0%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
1.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Dontavis Crocker for 11 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
1.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
1.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 13 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
1.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
1.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+60
0.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted for a TD David Mims return for 60 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.3%
Duvall Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
0.3%
Duvall Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
0.3%
Duvall Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:13
Tyler Jones pass complete to Robert Lowe for 9 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 0:08
Tyler Jones pass complete to C.J. Best for 14 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q3 12:35
Tyler Jones run for 15 yds for a TD (Will Johnson KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com