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NMSU

New Mexico State 35 at Arkansas State 68

ARST
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:49 · Steven Witkowski punt for 45 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 26 yds to the ArkSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Pregame prior+41.6Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:08: Larry Rose III run for 80 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:14: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 75 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +4.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:41: Michael Gordon run for 8 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK) — ARST win probability +5.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:03: Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK) — ARST win probability +3.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:03: Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 4 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK) — NMSU win probability +5.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 1 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:49NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:55NMSU 4th & 3 at ARST 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    8.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:52NMSU 4th & 7 at NMSU 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:29ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 49, up 6
    Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:18NMSU 4th & 9 at ARST 45, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.6%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:43ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:58NMSU 4th & 16 at ARST 33, down 6
    Close callPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−1.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:20NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:03NMSU 4th & 3 at ARST 4, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:06NMSU 4th & 5 at NMSU 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:36NMSU 4th & 5 at ARST 5, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:19ARST 4th & 3 at ARST 32, up 26
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 9 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:54ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:41NMSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:08NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:25ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:14NMSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:18ARST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:41ARST Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:03ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:03NMSU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 1:19ARST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 13:43ARST Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:24ARST Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:21NMSU Touchdown, down 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:52ARST Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0693% → 92%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
92.6%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
92.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 3 yds to the ArkSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
92.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
92.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+20
92.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 20 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
92.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 45 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
92.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
92.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 2 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+4
92.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 4 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 36
+26
92.3%
Steven Witkowski punt for 45 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 26 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3INT
10 plays · 10 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
92.1%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 2
OPP 47
0
92.2%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
92.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
92.2%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-5
92.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 20
50
+3
92.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 3 yds to the NMxSt 47Similar
Q1 10:46
2ND & 17
OPP 47
+17
92.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 17 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
92.2%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete, PENALTY ASU HL (Clark, Jemar) 10 yards to the NMSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 20
OPP 40
-5
92.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 45Similar
Q1 10:46
1ST & 25
OPP 45
+16
92.1%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Jaden Wright return for 16 yds to the NMxSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 5:149% → 12%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 14 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
91.3%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-9
91.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 1 yd to the ArkSt 38 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, HL (Gregory Hogan) to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+8
91.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for 8 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+6
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+8
91.5%
Larry Rose III run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
91.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Xavier WoodsonSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+2
91.2%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+10
91.4%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joseph Matthews for 10 yds to the ArkSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
91.2%
Larry Rose III run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 9Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+1
91.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
88.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
89.2%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
89.2%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
89.3%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 2:41
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+24
89.1%
Fredi Knighten pass intercepted Clint Barnard return for 14 yds to the ARKST 44 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the ArkSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1313% → 13%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
87.3%
Tyler Rogers run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q1 1:13
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
87.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:13
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+8
87.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
86.6%
Andrew Allen run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
86.6%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted Artez Brown return for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
2 plays · 98 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+63
87.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 63 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.1%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory Hogan, broken up by Andrew TryonSimilar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
89.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 28Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
89.5%
Steven Witkowski punt for 39 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 11 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
89.9%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 13
OWN 41
0
89.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+8
89.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
89.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 10TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
85.2%
Larry Rose III run for 80 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 0:3887% → 90%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
86.7%
Michael Gordon run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
87.1%
Johnston White run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
89.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 14 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
84.7%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 75 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 3:5085% → 89%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
85.2%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-3
85.8%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+24
84.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 24 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
86.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 15 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
86.7%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the NMxSt 33Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-8
86.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 31 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Dijon Paschal) to the NMxSt 41Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 18
OPP 41
+12
85.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Byner for 12 yds to the NMxSt 29Similar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+10
85.7%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Houston, Tres, PENALTY NMSU HL (Hill, Lewis) 10 yards to the NMSU19, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
86.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
86.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tyler TrosinSimilar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
89.0%
Michael Gordon run for 19 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
86.2%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
86.2%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+5
86.7%
Rose III, Larry rush for 3 yards to the ASU42 (Hunter, Money), PENALTY ASU offside (Gallagher, B.) 5 yards to the ASU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
86.3%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon BetancourtSimilar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-5
86.8%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Jaden Wright) to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q2 6:18
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
87.4%
Steven Witkowski punt for 35 yds, downed at the ArkSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:1488% → 87%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
88.1%
Johnston White run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
88.1%
Gordon, Michael rush for 72 yards to the NMSU0, clock 04:28, PENALTY ASU HL (Trosin, Tyler) 10 yards to the ASU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-9
88.0%
Knighten, Fredi rush for 1 yard to the ASU19 (Rose, Winston), PENALTY ASU HL (Mondie, Devin) 9 yards to the ASU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 29
OWN 9
-1
87.9%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 8Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 30
OWN 8
+19
87.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 19 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+3
87.6%
Fredi Knighten run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
86.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 69 yds, downed at the NMxSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
87.3%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
87.4%
Larry Rose III run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+17
87.9%
Larry Rose III run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-16
87.0%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 16 yards to the NMxSt 6Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 26
OWN 6
+15
87.4%
TEAM run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17PUNT
13 plays · 42 yds · 3:0215% → 13%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
85.5%
Larry Rose III run for 17 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
84.6%
Larry Rose III run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+15
84.3%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Shapiro, Adam, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Brown, Artez) 15 yards to the ASU41, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
83.7%
Larry Rose III run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+8
82.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 8 yds to the ArkSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
82.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 2 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 25
-3
83.9%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 11
OPP 28
-5
85.6%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Thomas McGwire) to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 16
OPP 33
0
86.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 16
OPP 33
0
87.4%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 25 yds, downed at the ArkSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 1:5887% → 94%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
86.7%
Knighten, Fredi rush for 12 yards to the ASU20, out-of-bounds, PENALTY ASU HL (Wright, Alan) 4 yards to the ASU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 14
OWN 4
-1
86.7%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 3Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 15
OWN 3
+67
86.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 67 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
88.6%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Tyler Greve) to the NMxSt 35Similar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+15
88.1%
Johnston White run for 15 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
88.6%
Blake Mack run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.1%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 1:217% → 7%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.2%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Larry Rose III for no gain to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
93.4%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Dezmand Candelaria) to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 9:41
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
93.4%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the NMxSt 15Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+9
93.4%
Larry Rose III run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 24Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
93.4%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 1:3295% → 98%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
94.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 11 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
94.6%
Johnston White run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 32Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+9
94.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 9 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
94.8%
Michael Gordon run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
94.8%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 2Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
98.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:002% → 8%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Thomas McGwire) to the NMxSt 20Similar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
97.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 11 yds to the NMxSt 31Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
97.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 6 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
97.6%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 14 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
97.5%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 24 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
97.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 4 yds to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+10
97.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 10 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
97.1%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 6 yds to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q3 6:03
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+1
97.1%
Larry Rose III run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 4Similar
Q3 6:03
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
97.4%
Tyler Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
92.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 4 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 1:3595% → 99%
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
95.3%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+12
95.2%
Johnston White run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+34
95.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 34 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
95.8%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 25Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+3
95.7%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22Similar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+22
98.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Kenneth Rains for 22 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:132% → 1%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.5%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Hogan, Gregory for 6 yards to the NMSU31 (Woodson, Xavier), PENALTY ASU HL (Tryon, Andrew) 10 yards to the NMSU35, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.4%
Tyler Rogers run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-10
98.4%
Rogers, Tyler pass complete to Matthews, Josep for 4 yards to the NMSU47 (Tryon, Andrew), PENALTY NMSU HL (Brown, Jerrel) 10 yards to the NMSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
98.5%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q3 1:19
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+7
98.6%
Tyler Rogers run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 40Similar
Q3 0:06
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
98.6%
Kelly Kingseed punt for 19 yds, downed at the ArkSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
5 plays · 59 yds · 1:1799% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.4%
Michael Gordon run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Johnston White run for no gain to the NMxSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+15
99.4%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Houston, Tres, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Morgan, T) 15 yards to the NMSU28, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+21
99.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Brandon Byner run for 7 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
99.9%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 48Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Brandon BetancourtSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 11
OWN 48
+26
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 26 yds to the ArkSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
99.8%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Joseph MatthewsSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+8
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 8 yds to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
99.8%
Rogers, Tyler pass incomplete to Matthews, Josep, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Brown, Artez) 9 yards to the ASU7, 1ST DOWN NMSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 5 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
99.8%
Tyler Rogers sacked by Money Hunter for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 5Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Gregory HoganSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
99.8%
Larry Rose III run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
99.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
99.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
99.8%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+15
99.8%
Johnston White run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
99.8%
Johnston White run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+4
99.8%
Brandon Byner run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
100.0%
Tyler Trosin run for 32 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 27TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Joshua Bowen for 8 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
100.0%
Tyler Rogers run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Jerrel Brown for 7 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 3
OPP 35
0
100.0%
Larry Rose III run for no gain to the ArkSt 35Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+35
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 35 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Frankie Jackson run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
99.9%
Stephen Hogan pass complete to William Boyd for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Frankie Jackson run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Luke Ferguson punt for 25 yds, downed at the NMxSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 29INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:170% → 0%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Tyler Rogers pass incomplete to Adam ShapiroSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+46
100.0%
Tyler Rogers pass intercepted for a TD Andrew Tryon return for 46 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 30END OF GAME
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
100.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 36Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 38Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
100.0%
Brandon Betancourt run for no gain to the NMxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:41
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds for a TD, (Logan Spry KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q3 3:03
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Adam Shapiro for 4 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
-5.3
TD · Q2 10:14
Tyler Rogers pass complete to Gregory Hogan for 75 yds for a TD, (Maxwell Johnson KICK)
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com