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APP

App State 37 at Arkansas State 32

ARST
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:53 · Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Pregame prior+17.9Home team on offense+4.1Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:14: Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +14.7 pts (now 37%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:11: Marcus Cox run for 14 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +20.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:43: Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 16 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK) — APP win probability +21.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:17: Darion Griswold 10 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Luke Ferguson PAT failed) — ARST win probability +7.9 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:31: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ARST win probability +25.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 7 of 10APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:42APP 4th & 6 at APP 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28ARST 4th & 1 at APP 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    82.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:22APP 4th & 3 at APP 10, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:16APP 4th & 11 at APP 7, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:31ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 46, up 13
    Close callPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:59ARST 4th & 13 at ARST 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:10APP 4th & 8 at APP 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:01APP 4th & 1 at APP 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.7%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:55ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:53APP 4th & 2 at ARST 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.3%−1.0
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:08ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−1.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.5%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:04ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:38ARST 4th & 2 at APP 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−3.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:10APP 4th & 6 at ARST 7, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:02ARST 4th & 4 at APP 8, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:29APP 4th & 7 at ARST 34, up 5
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:28ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:59APP Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:10ARST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:05APP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:14APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:11APP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:43APP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:17ARST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:31ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.1%−1.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
83.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 2 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
83.2%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
83.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
83.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 33 yds , Doug Middleton returns for no gain to the AppSt 42 APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the AppSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
82.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+13
82.9%
Marcus Cox run for 13 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
82.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 4 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
82.8%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
82.8%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:42
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
82.8%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:0482% → 83%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
82.3%
Michael Gordon run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+31
82.4%
Michael Gordon run for 31 yds to the AppSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
82.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+27
82.5%
Johnston White run for 27 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
82.6%
Michael Gordon run for 13 yds to the AppSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.6%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 8:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0617% → 16%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
82.8%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the AppSt 3Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+4
82.8%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 7
+3
83.0%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the AppSt 10Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 3
OWN 10
+38
84.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 28 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 38 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
84.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 5Similar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+2
84.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q1 6:16
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
84.4%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
4TH & 11
OWN 7
+5
84.4%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 51 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 5 yds to the ArkSt 12 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Booker Mays) to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0886% → 85%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
85.6%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+6
85.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 6 yds to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
85.6%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
84.9%
Stephen Hogan punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:2315% → 20%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+26
84.7%
Marcus Cox run for 26 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
84.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 7 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 3
OPP 47
-10
84.0%
Cox, Marcus rush for 5 yards to the ASU42 (Rolland-Jones), PENALTY APP HL (Gossett, Colby) 10 yards to the APP43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+10
84.7%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+15
84.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 15 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
83.8%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+23
83.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 23 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
83.3%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Money Hunter) to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
83.3%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.6%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
81.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
81.5%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+15
81.2%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
82.4%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
82.4%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Kennan Gilchrist for a loss of 5 yards to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
81.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
81.0%
Stephen Hogan punt for 60 yds, downed at the AppSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
81.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 4Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+9
81.6%
Terrence Upshaw run for 9 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
81.3%
Terrence Upshaw run for 5 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+8
81.3%
Marcus Cox run for 8 yds to the AppSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
81.1%
Marcus Cox run for 11 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
80.7%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
80.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
80.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Shaedon MeadorsSimilar
Q2 12:10
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+61
81.7%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 53 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 61 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:4683% → 86%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
83.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+12
83.1%
Michael Gordon run for 12 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
86.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11FUMBLE
16 plays · 86 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
85.7%
Terrence Upshaw run for no gain to the AppSt 14Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+16
85.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Malachi Jones for 16 yds to the AppSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
85.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 15
OWN 25
-5
85.7%
Taylor Lamb sacked by Carderious Dean for a loss of 5 yards to the AppSt 20Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 20
OWN 20
+5
85.8%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the AppSt 25Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+14
86.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Bobo Beathard for 14 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 7:01
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+4
85.4%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
85.1%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 9 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+5
84.3%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
84.4%
Lamb, Taylor pass incomplete to McElfresh, S. (Hunter, Money), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Hunter, Money) 15 yards to the ASU28, 1ST DOWN APP, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
83.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
84.4%
Marcus Cox run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-10
84.1%
Lamb, Taylor rush for 11 yards to the ASU18 (Woodson, Xavier), PENALTY APP HL (Collins, Parker) 10 yards to the ASU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 21
OPP 39
+23
84.9%
Taylor Lamb run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Woodson) to the ArkSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
83.7%
Marcus Cox run for 15 yds Marcus Cox fumbled, recovered by ArkStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0787% → 87%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
87.0%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
88.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+3
88.0%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
87.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13TD
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:3113% → 21%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.9%
Taylor Lamb run for no gain to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+13
87.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 13 yds to the ArkSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
86.0%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfresh, broken up by Money HunterSimilar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
78.8%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Shaedon Meadors for 24 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
82.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 4:3920% → 37%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
80.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 15 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
79.2%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 47Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+15
78.5%
Marcus Cox run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
77.8%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
77.9%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+7
79.1%
Marcus Cox run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+2
79.6%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
77.5%
Isaiah Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+17
77.9%
Marcus Cox run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
77.5%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.6%
Michael Gordon run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-3
73.0%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 41Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
70.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
69.3%
Luke Ferguson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Bobo Beathard at the AppSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 3:4733% → 59%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
67.2%
Terrence Upshaw run for 3 yds to the AppSt 18Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
67.2%
Taylor Lamb pass incomplete to Simms McElfreshSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+20
68.3%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Terrence Upshaw for 20 yds to the AppSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
65.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 36Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+2
66.9%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+44
67.0%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 44 yds to the ArkSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
62.0%
Terrence Upshaw run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
41.1%
Marcus Cox run for 14 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 1:0148% → 44%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
48.2%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
49.0%
Brandon Cox pass incomplete to Tres Houston, broken up by Latrell GibbsSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+4
47.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+1
44.0%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
45.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Kenneth Rains) to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+5
44.6%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
44.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Johnston WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+11
42.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Byner for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
44.2%
Stephen Hogan punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:4060% → 90%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
40.0%
Marcus Cox run for 6 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
38.2%
Marcus Cox run for 10 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
37.4%
Terrence Upshaw run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 33Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+10
40.4%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Marcus Cox for 10 yds to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+29
33.6%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Simms McElfresh for 29 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.1%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
31.6%
Taylor Lamb run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
31.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+1
31.5%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 21
+5
31.6%
Marcus Cox run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 16Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
10.5%
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 16 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
16.7%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+10
17.2%
Johnston White run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
18.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 8 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
19.2%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
18.9%
Johnston White run for no gain to the AppSt 46Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-3
18.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:5893% → 99%
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
7.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
7.5%
Marcus Cox run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
7.5%
Taylor Lamb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+11
5.8%
Taylor Lamb run for 11 yds to the ArkSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
5.5%
Marcus Cox run for 17 yds to the ArkSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
5.5%
Marcus Cox run for no gain to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
5.5%
Taylor Lamb run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
5.6%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 7 Marcus Cox fumbled, forced by Sterling Young, recovered by AppSt Kendall LammSimilar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+24
1.5%
Bentlee Critcher 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:003% → 4%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
3.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+13
3.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 13 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
3.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 20 yds to the AppSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
4.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
4.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 6 yds to the AppSt 8Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
4.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by Eric BoggsSimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 4
OPP 8
0
4.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
1.5%
Terrence Upshaw run for 2 yds to the AppSt 10 Terrence Upshaw fumbled, forced by Clifford Thomas, recovered by ArkSt Chris StoneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
9.4%
Darion Griswold 10 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Luke Ferguson PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:457% → 31%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
6.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by John LawSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+14
6.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 14 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+30
7.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 22 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, face mask (8 yards) (Latrell Gibbs) to the AppSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
32.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
31.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:5295% → 96%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
5.4%
Marcus Cox run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+2
5.0%
Marcus Cox run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-2
4.6%
Marcus Cox run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
4.0%
Bentlee Critcher punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
9.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 21 yds to the ArkSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
10.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
10.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Doug MiddletonSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
9.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 13 yds to the AppSt 41 lat. to Tres Houston for 5 yds Tres Houston fumbled, recovered by AppSt Ronald BlairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:31
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Johnston White for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+25
TD · Q4 11:43
Taylor Lamb pass complete to Montez McGuire for 16 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q3 5:11
Marcus Cox run for 14 yds for a TD, (Bentlee Critcher KICK)
-20.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com