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GAST

Georgia State 21 at Troy 45

TROY
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
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Win probability · TROY
modelTROY aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playTROY scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:03 · Ryan Kay punt for 43 yds, downed at the GeoSt 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+13.8Pregame prior+8.8Score differential+5.8Garbage-time factor+4.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:17: Brandon Burks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +4.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:24: Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +7.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:22: Brandon Silvers run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +9.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:14: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 13 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +8.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:37: Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK) — TROY win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TROY made the numbers' call on 2 of 7GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00TROY 4th & 9 at GAST 32, tied
    Close callWent for it · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:59TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:57TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.7%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:03TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 12, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:18TROY 4th & 5 at GAST 27, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.1%−<0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.5%−4.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:37GAST 4th & 23 at TROY 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−1.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:15TROY 4th & 1 at GAST 34, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:48GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:43TROY 4th & 2 at GAST 49, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:54GAST 4th & 5 at TROY 43, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:19TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:33GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:17TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:24TROY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:22TROY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:14GAST Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:37TROY Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:48TROY Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:50GAST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TROYDrive 1TD
19 plays · 66 yds · 6:4168% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Burks for 4 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
67.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 7 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
67.6%
TROY Penalty, false start (Tommy Stephens) to the Troy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+14
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jalen Harris for 14 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
67.6%
Khary Franklin run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Jarvis Bentley for 6 yds to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+4
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds to the GeoSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
67.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-10
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Nyck Young for 5 yds to the GeoSt 25 TROY Penalty, illegal block (Antonio Garcia) to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 40
+5
67.6%
Khary Franklin run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+3
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Brandon Brooks for 3 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+12
67.6%
Brandon Burks run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 5 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
67.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 4 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+5
67.6%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, (5 Yards) to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.0%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:4631% → 35%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
69.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+12
68.7%
Marcus Caffey run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+11
69.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
68.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
68.5%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+12
68.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Duvall Smith for 12 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
68.2%
Marcus Caffey run for 2 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
68.2%
Marcus Caffey run for 10 yds to the Troy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
68.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 1 yd to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+21
64.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 21 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 3TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:1668% → 72%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.6%
Brandon Burks run for no gain to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+24
67.5%
Brandon Burks run for 24 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
68.0%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+6
68.0%
Josh Anderson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
68.0%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+4
67.9%
Brandon Burks run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+9
67.6%
Brandon Silvers run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.4%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1730% → 29%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
70.2%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-4
69.7%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Brandon Timmons for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
70.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez Blair, broken up by Femi OdaiboSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+18
71.3%
Matt Hubbard punt for 47 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for 18 yds to the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
71.5%
Brandon Silvers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
71.5%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+5
71.1%
Brandon Silvers run for 5 yds to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
71.1%
Ryan Kay punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6INT
9 plays · 60 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
71.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Marcus Caffey for 4 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
71.4%
Marcus Caffey run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+8
71.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 8 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
71.3%
Marcus Caffey run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
70.6%
Marcus Caffey run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
70.0%
Marcus Caffey run for 6 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
69.7%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+19
70.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 19 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
69.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Ethan Davis return for 1 yd to the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 7TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:3373% → 82%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
72.8%
Khary Franklin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 13
OWN 25
0
72.3%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete, broken up by Shawayne LawrenceSimilar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+12
71.8%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 12 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
72.2%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.7%
Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Bryan Holmes, broken up by B.J. ClaySimilar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
73.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to John Johnson for no gain to the Troy 40Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+14
72.7%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Chandler Worthy for 14 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
74.0%
Josh Anderson run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
74.3%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+3
74.2%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Nyck Young for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+31
82.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8INT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
80.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
80.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 6 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
80.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
79.9%
Marcus Caffey run for 12 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
79.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 5 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+7
78.6%
Marcus Caffey run for 7 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
78.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Marcus Caffey for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 31Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 14
OPP 31
0
79.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Montres Kitchens return for no gain to the Troy 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 1:0184% → 84%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
84.0%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 8
OWN 5
-3
84.0%
TROY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Caleb Carbine) to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 11
OWN 2
+3
84.0%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the Troy 5Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+7
83.9%
Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 12Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
83.7%
Ryan Kay punt for 43 yds, downed at the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FUMBLE
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.0%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
82.4%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
82.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 6 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
82.4%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-6
81.9%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 6 yards to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-1
83.3%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 32 Marcus Caffey fumbled, forced by Jamal Stadom, recovered by Troy Tray HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 11TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:5886% → 95%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
85.6%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
85.7%
Khary Franklin run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+30
94.9%
Brandon Silvers run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:086% → 16%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
93.3%
Duvall Smith run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
93.3%
Duvall Smith run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+7
93.3%
Duvall Smith run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
93.3%
Gerald Howse run for 7 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
92.8%
Gerald Howse run for no gain to the Troy 45Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+32
93.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 32 yds to the Troy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
92.5%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
92.5%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the Troy 13Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 13 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 13FG
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:5689% → 93%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
89.1%
Chandler Worthy run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+7
89.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
89.1%
Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
89.1%
Brandon Silvers pass complete to B.J. Chitty for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+3
88.6%
Brandon Burks run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q3 4:18
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
92.7%
Ryan Kay 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:418% → 7%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
92.0%
Duvall Smith run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+37
92.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 37 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
90.9%
Duvall Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 36Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
91.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Todd BoydSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 14
OPP 36
-9
92.4%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Anthony Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Troy 45 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Nick Arbuckle , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 1:37
4TH & 23
OPP 45
0
92.9%
Matt Hubbard punt for 12 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
3 plays · 67 yds · 0:5394% → 99%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
94.0%
Brandon Burks run for 5 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+49
94.3%
Brandon Burks run for 49 yds to the GeoSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
98.8%
Jordan Chunn run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:372% → 2%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
97.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, delay of game (Nick Arbuckle) to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 0:37
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
97.7%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Jamal Stadom and Lonnie Gosha for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
98.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 8 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
98.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-2
98.0%
Matt Hubbard punt for 32 yds , Teddy Ruben returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 4:2799% → 100%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
99.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 5 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+9
99.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+2
99.0%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
99.0%
Jordan Chunn run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+2
98.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.9%
Khary Franklin run for 32 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Duvall SmithSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle run for no gain to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 38 yds, downed at the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 2 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Jordan Chunn run for 1 yd to the Troy 46Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Jalen Harris for 5 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Ryan Kay punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 11Similar
Q4 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Khary Franklin run for 9 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Khary Franklin run for 2 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 89 yds · 3:040% → 1%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.9%
Gerald Howse run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Gerald HowseSimilar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+38
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 38 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Gerald Howse run for 5 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Darrin ReddickSimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+32
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 32 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
99.9%
Arbuckle, Nick sideline pass complete to Harden, Donovan for 3 yards to the TROY1 (McCall, Julius), PENALTY GSU pass interference (Blair, Lynquez) 15 yards to the TROY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
0
99.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 1:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 19
+19
99.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 19 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21END OF GAME
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+16
99.7%
Keith Johnson run for 16 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
99.7%
Keith Johnson run for 8 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-3
99.8%
Marquell Beckwith run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:22
Brandon Silvers run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+9.2
TD · Q3 7:14
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 13 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-8.2
TD · Q2 4:24
Brandon Silvers pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 31 yds for a TD, (Ryan Kay KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com