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USA

South Alabama 10 at Arkansas State 45

ARST
2014 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2014 · Centennial Bank Stadium
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Win probability · ARST
modelARST aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playARST scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:36 · Brandon McKee punt for 28 yds, downed at the ArkSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+16.3Pregame prior+12.6Score differential+11.3Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:52: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 47 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +3.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q1 0:25: Aleem Sunanon 41 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +2.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. TD · Q2 12:53: Fredi Knighten run for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +5.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:36: Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +9.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:11: Michael Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 10:47ARST 4th & 8 at USA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    73.5%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:26USA 4th & 4 at ARST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20ARST 4th & 8 at ARST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:15USA 4th & 8 at USA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:25USA 4th & 3 at ARST 25, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.1%−0.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    22.8%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36ARST 4th & 1 at USA 6, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    77.0%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:41ARST 4th & 11 at USA 29, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:41USA 4th & 15 at USA 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:36USA 4th & 10 at USA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:20ARST 4th & 1 at USA 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    94.0%−0.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:03USA 4th & 9 at USA 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:36USA 4th & 10 at ARST 34, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:48ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 40, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:33USA 4th & 6 at USA 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:29ARST 4th & 6 at USA 46, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:41USA 4th & 5 at ARST 28, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:34ARST 4th & 4 at ARST 46, up 42
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:09USA 4th & 13 at USA 19, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:54ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 29, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:52ARST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:53ARST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:36ARST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:11ARST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:36ARST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:48ARST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:22USA Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARSTDrive 1MISSED FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 4:1373% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
72.8%
Michael Gordon run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
72.8%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
72.8%
Brandon Cox run for 8 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+3
72.8%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
72.8%
Johnston White run for 9 yds to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
0
72.8%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the SAlab 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
72.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
72.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
72.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 2 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-5
72.8%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+20
72.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 20 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
72.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the SAlab 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
72.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
0
72.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+31
72.2%
Luke Ferguson 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:2128% → 29%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
71.9%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Jereme Jones for 4 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
71.9%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 6 yds to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
71.8%
Kendall Houston run for 1 yd to the SAlab 31Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+15
71.9%
Floyd, Matt pass incomplete to Bowman, Braedon, PENALTY ASU personal foul (Hayes, Rocky) 15 yards to the USA46, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
71.5%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the ArkSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
71.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 37Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
71.5%
Matt Floyd run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
71.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q1 7:26
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
70.8%
Matt Floyd pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
71.3%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
71.1%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
71.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by Antonio CarterSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
70.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
70.8%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+1
70.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 28Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
71.1%
Matt Floyd pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 8
OWN 28
+11
71.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 58 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 11 yds to the ArkSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4971% → 75%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 6 yds to the ArkSt 31Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
70.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
71.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 6 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
71.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+9
71.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 9 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
75.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 47 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FG
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:2327% → 29%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
72.7%
Terrance Timmons run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+9
72.8%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 9 yds Shavarez Smith fumbled, forced by Blaise Taylor, recovered by SAlab Shavarez Smith for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
72.2%
Kendall Houston run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 2
OPP 24
-1
72.1%
Kendall Houston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
72.7%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+41
71.1%
Aleem Sunanon 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:2373% → 78%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
72.7%
Michael Gordon run for 17 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
73.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon Paschal, broken up by Jesse KelleySimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
72.8%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+10
72.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 10 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
73.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 12 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
73.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Akeem Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 17Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+17
78.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
76.5%
Matt Floyd run for a loss of 9 yards to the SAlab 15 Matt Floyd fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Dexter BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
78.3%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 12:36
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+9
77.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 9 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
77.5%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the SAlab 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
77.9%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 8
-2
78.0%
Matt Floyd sacked by Dexter Blackmon and Chuks Ota for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 6Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 10
OWN 6
0
78.4%
Matt Floyd pass intercepted Qushaun Lee return for no gain to the SAlab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 11FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:1683% → 83%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
82.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+3
82.4%
Brandon Cox run for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
82.1%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Tres Houston) to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 11
OPP 29
0
82.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+46
82.5%
Luke Ferguson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.2%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
81.5%
Matt Floyd pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
81.6%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
81.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 41 yds, downed at the ArkSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:5684% → 94%
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
84.0%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+4
83.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+9
83.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
84.1%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the SAlab 47Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+12
83.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tyler Trosin for 12 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
84.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+9
84.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Brandon Cox for 9 yds to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
84.2%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 3 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+11
84.2%
Michael Gordon run for 11 yds to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
83.9%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
93.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.6%
Xavier Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
91.7%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Braedon Bowman, broken up by Xavier WoodsonSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
91.8%
Terrance Timmons run for 2 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 2:36
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 28 yds, downed at the ArkSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:0694% → 94%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
94.4%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 3
OPP 46
0
94.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for no gain to the SAlab 46Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+14
94.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 14 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
94.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
94.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+49
94.3%
Luke Ferguson 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.7%
Kendall Houston run for 7 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+9
92.3%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 9 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
92.3%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+23
92.4%
Matt Floyd pass intercepted Qushaun Lee return for 23 yds to the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:4295% → 99%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
94.8%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+11
94.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 1
OPP 13
0
94.7%
Fredi Knighten run for no gain to the SAlab 13Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+6
94.6%
Michael Gordon run for 6 yds to the SAlab 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.9%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion Griswold, broken up by Margo ReedSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
94.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Jemar Clark) to the SAlab 12Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
95.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 11 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.8%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
98.8%
Matt Floyd run for 4 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-5
98.7%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Ucambre Williams) to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
98.8%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 6 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-4
98.7%
Matt Floyd sacked by Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+10
98.8%
Brandon McKee punt for 30 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 10 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:0899% → 100%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
99.2%
Knighten, Fredi pass incomplete to Houston, Tres, PENALTY USA pass interference (Garner, Montell) 15 yards to the USA33, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the SAlab 28Similar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 5
OPP 28
0
99.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres Houston, broken up by Davin HawkinsSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-1
99.2%
Michael Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+12
99.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 12 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
99.2%
Michael Gordon run for 12 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.5%
Johnston White run for 5 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.5%
Matt Floyd sacked by Chuks Ota for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 19Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-3
99.5%
Kendall Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 16Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+50
99.5%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 50 yds to the ArkSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Braedon Bowman for no gain to the ArkSt 34Similar
Q3 6:36
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Sterling YoungSimilar
Q3 6:36
4TH & 10
OPP 34
0
99.4%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.6%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
99.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+4
99.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 4 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.6%
Luke Ferguson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.7%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
99.7%
Hunter Vaughn run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
99.7%
Hunter Vaughn pass incomplete to Cameron BroadnaxSimilar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+7
99.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 52 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
99.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
50
0
99.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Michael GordonSimilar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
50
+4
99.7%
Michael Gordon run for 4 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Luke Ferguson punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24INT TD
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:270% → 0%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.8%
Hunter Vaughn run for 14 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+58
99.8%
Hunter Vaughn pass intercepted for a TD Artez Brown return for 58 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 67 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+31
99.8%
Xavier Johnson run for 31 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Terrance Timmons run for 6 yds to the SAlab 46Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
99.8%
Hunter Vaughn run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.8%
Terrance Timmons run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+15
99.8%
Vaughn, Hunter sacked for loss of 6 yards to the USA46 (Rolland-Jones), PENALTY ASU face mask (Stone, Chris) 15 yards to the ASU33, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.7%
Hunter Vaughn pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:41
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
99.8%
Hunter Vaughn run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 14:41
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Hunter Vaughn run for no gain to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 14:41
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+4
99.7%
Hunter Vaughn pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for no gain to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+16
99.9%
Brandon Cox run for 16 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Stephen Hogan pass incomplete to Blake MackSimilar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Stephen Hogan punt for 32 yds, downed at the SAlab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
99.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Hunter Vaughn run for 1 yd to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-5
99.9%
Hunter Vaughn sacked by Chris Stone for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 13
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 47 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 19 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, HL (Jamaris Hart) to the ArkSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Brandon Byner run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-4
99.9%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+7
99.9%
Johnston White run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Stephen Hogan punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 29TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.9%
Berron Tyson run for 10 yds to the ArkSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
99.9%
Berron Tyson run for 21 yds to the ArkSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
99.9%
Hunter Vaughn run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+2
99.9%
Berron Tyson run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.9%
Vaughn, Hunter rush for no gain to the ASU15 (Hart, Jamaris), PENALTY ASU face mask (Sutton, E.J.) 7 yards to the ASU8, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
Hunter Vaughn run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 1Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Berron Tyson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 30END OF GAME
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
100.0%
Johnston White run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-3
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:36
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Warren Leapheart for 2 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
+9.7
TD · Q2 12:53
Fredi Knighten run for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q1 2:52
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 47 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com