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GASO

Georgia Southern 69 at Georgia State 31

GAST
2014 · Week 9 · Oct 25, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:01 · Ryan Nowicki punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior−20.3Home team on offense−11.1Score differential−5.2Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:52: Donovan Harden 3 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick) — GAST win probability +5.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 9:22: Donovan Harden 59 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick) — GAST win probability +7.7 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 6:12: Alfred Ramsby 8 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick) — GASO win probability +5.7 pts (now 82%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:47: Matt Breida 75 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick) — GASO win probability +7.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:23: Matt Breida 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick) — GASO win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 11:59GAST 4th & 25 at GASO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:42GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:01GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 48, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q3 13:08GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q3 5:47GAST 4th & 10 at GASO 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    3.6%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q4 2:00GAST 4th & 1 at GAST 45, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 7:37GASO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:17GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25GASO Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:22GAST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:12GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:47GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:23GASO Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:32GASO Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:16GAST Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:42GASO Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:36GASO Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 9:33GAST Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:44GASO Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASTDrive 1FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 2:4617% → 18%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
16.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
17.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
17.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+39
17.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Avery Sweeting for 39 yds to the GeoSo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
17.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 8 yds to the GeoSo 16Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
18.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 4 yds to the GeoSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-10
18.3%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY GEORGIAST holding 10 yards to the GASOUTHERN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 20
OPP 22
0
18.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 20
OPP 22
-5
18.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (A.J. Kaplan) to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 25
OPP 27
0
18.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 25
OPP 27
0
18.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 25
OPP 27
+44
18.3%
Wil Lutz 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:0882% → 81%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
18.5%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+12
18.8%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GeoSo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
19.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 1
50
+19
19.2%
Alfred Ramsby run for 19 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
19.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 2 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+8
19.6%
Devin Scott run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
19.7%
Devin Scott run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
20.0%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.9%
Matt Breida 7 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 1:4720% → 20%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
19.6%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 12
OWN 24
0
19.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 12
OWN 24
+15
19.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY GASOUTHERN face mask (Johnson, Jamal) 15 yards to the GEORGIAST39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
19.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Tim Wynn) to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q1 7:06
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+7
19.7%
Marcus Caffey run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
20.4%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
20.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 5:42
4TH & 8
OWN 41
0
20.0%
Matt Hubbard punt for 41 yds, downed at the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:1680% → 82%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
20.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
20.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
20.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+9
21.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Devin Scott for 9 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
20.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 27 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
20.5%
BJ Johnson run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+12
20.5%
Zach Walker run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
18.1%
Kevin Ellison 9 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 5TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:5319% → 26%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
18.5%
Avery Sweeting run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+1
18.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 1 yd to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 13
OWN 27
+17
18.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 17 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
19.1%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
18.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+32
18.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 32 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
20.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Davis Moore) to the GeoSo 33Similar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+10
20.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 10 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+20
20.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 20 yds to the GeoSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
20.2%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the GeoSo 3Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.6%
Donovan Harden 3 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1278% → 81%
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
22.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-4
22.4%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, False Start (Darien Foreman) to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 14
OPP 42
+11
22.9%
Matt Breida run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+10
22.3%
Alfred Ramsby run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
22.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
19.2%
Zach Walker 19 Yd Run (Alex Hanks PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5319% → 27%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
19.3%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
19.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 17 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
27.0%
Donovan Harden 59 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4876% → 82%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
24.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+16
24.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
23.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+3
23.3%
Devin Scott run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q2 6:33
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+6
24.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
18.4%
Alfred Ramsby 8 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 9INT
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:2720% → 22%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
19.5%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Offside (NA) to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 5
OWN 40
0
20.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+12
20.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 12 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+19
20.8%
Marcus Caffey run for 19 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
21.6%
Marcus Caffey run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
21.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Darius Jones return for no gain to the GeoSo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:3980% → 81%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
19.9%
Matt Breida run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+6
19.6%
Matt Breida run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
19.3%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
19.7%
Alfred Ramsby run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
18.9%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+9
20.2%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Alfred Ramsby for 9 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+5
18.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 5 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
18.7%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:3518% → 17%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
17.6%
Marcus Caffey run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 12Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+10
17.8%
Marcus Caffey run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
16.5%
Marcus Caffey run for no gain to the GeoSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 12TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
11.6%
Matt Breida 75 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3412% → 12%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.1%
Marcus Caffey run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
12.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 8 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
12.4%
Matt Hubbard punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tray Butler at the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:3489% → 97%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
11.2%
Montay Crockett run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
10.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
10.4%
Alfred Ramsby run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
50
+22
9.9%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 22 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
9.5%
Alfred Ramsby run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
9.4%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
9.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
9.2%
Ean Days run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
9.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.3%
Matt Breida 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15MISSED FG
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
4.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
4.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Marcus Caffey for 6 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+28
4.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 28 yds to the GeoSo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
4.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
4.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
4.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+48
4.1%
Wil Lutz 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 4:0897% → 99%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
2.9%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+13
2.8%
Alfred Ramsby run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
50
+6
2.6%
Alfred Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+14
2.3%
Favian Upshaw run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
2.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
2.1%
Ean Days run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+13
2.0%
Montay Crockett run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.7%
Alfred Ramsby 5 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:572% → 3%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
1.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 19 yds to the GeoSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
1.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+10
1.7%
Arbuckle, Nick pass sacked for loss of 12 yards to the GEORGIAST35 (Johnson, Jamal), PENALTY GASOUTHERN holding 10 yards to the GASOUTHERN43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
0.9%
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+9
0.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 9 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+35
3.0%
Donovan Harden 35 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1898% → 100%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
1.9%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
0.5%
Matt Breida 61 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
0.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26 Nick Arbuckle fumbled, forced by Antwione Williams, recovered by GeoSo Deion StanleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20TD
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:24100% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
0.5%
Ean Days run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
0.3%
Ean Days 15 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 12 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.2%
Marcus Caffey run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
0.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
50
+14
0.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 14 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
0.3%
Donovan Harden 36 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.3%
Devin Scott run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
0.3%
Devin Scott run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+29
0.2%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 29 yds to the GeoSt 22 Ezayi Youyoute fumbled, forced by Bruce Dukes, recovered by GeoSo for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
0.2%
Devin Scott run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+2
0.2%
Devin Scott run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 17Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+8
0.2%
Ezayi Youyoute run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Dennis Pritchard 9 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:260% → 0%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.1%
Gerald Howse run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
0.1%
Gerald Howse run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
Gerald Howse run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
0.1%
Ronnie Bell run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
0.1%
Gerald Howse run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 49Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-8
0.1%
Ronnie Bell run for a loss of 8 yards to the GeoSt 43 Ronnie Bell fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Tay HicklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:22
Donovan Harden 59 Yd pass from Nick Arbuckle (Wil Lutz Kick)
+7.7
TD · Q3 14:47
Matt Breida 75 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)
-7.6
TD · Q3 7:23
Matt Breida 1 Yd Run (Alex Hanks Kick)
-5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com