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GAST

Georgia State 27 at South Alabama 30

USA
2014 · Week 8 · Oct 18, 2014 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreGAST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.3USA 83.1%Aleem Sunanon 43 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 10 · Q1 3:17
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:17 · Aleem Sunanon 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+30.3Home team on offense+1.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:39: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 15 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +8.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:26: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +12.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 14:50: Aleem Sunanon 43 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +8.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:48: Duvall Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joel Ruiz failed ) — GAST win probability +29.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:02: Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 18 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK) — USA win probability +40.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10GAST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 7:43USA 4th & 14 at USA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:17USA 4th & 9 at GAST 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.3%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:17GAST 4th & 1 at USA 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USA 4th & 11 at USA 1, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:45USA 4th & 17 at GAST 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    78.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:52GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:07USA 4th & 12 at GAST 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.7%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:20GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.7
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:09USA 4th & 2 at GAST 46, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.2%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%
    23% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00GAST 4th & 21 at GAST 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−3.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:04USA 4th & 21 at GAST 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−4.6
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−9.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:04GAST 4th & 16 at GAST 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−5.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:26USA 4th & 6 at GAST 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−12.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:40GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 30, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:50USA 4th & 6 at GAST 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−11.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:48USA 4th & 10 at USA 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:27GAST 4th & 6 at USA 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−3.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−1.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:02GAST 4th & 9 at USA 40, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%
    34% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−3.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GAST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:19USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:43GAST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:45GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:39USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:26GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:02USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
17 plays · 76 yds · 5:4186% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
86.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 6 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+10
86.1%
Brandon Bridge run for 10 yds to the SAlab 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
86.1%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+8
86.1%
Jay Jones run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
86.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+4
86.1%
Brandon Bridge run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
86.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 6 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
86.1%
Jay Jones run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
86.1%
Jay Jones run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
86.1%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
86.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
86.1%
Brandon Bridge run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+3
86.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
86.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+13
86.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
85.9%
Brandon Bridge run for 5 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:3615% → 17%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
85.4%
Gerald Howse run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+2
85.3%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
85.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 7 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
85.2%
Gerald Howse run for 4 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
83.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 44 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.8%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
83.8%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes Saxton, broken up by Joseph PetersonSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+1
83.6%
Terrance Timmons run for 1 yd to the SAlab 21Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
83.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
83.3%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
83.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 7 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+9
83.2%
Nick Arbuckle run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
83.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
83.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for no gain Donovan Harden fumbled, forced by Roman Buchanan, recovered by SAlab Davin HawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3484% → 83%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
83.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 7 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+11
83.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
83.7%
Brandon Bridge run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
83.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
83.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q1 3:17
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
83.1%
Aleem Sunanon 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 73 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
82.5%
Nick Arbuckle run for 21 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
82.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+12
82.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 12 yds to the SAlab 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.2%
Nick Arbuckle run for 4 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
82.5%
Jonathan Lytle run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q1 3:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
82.8%
Nick Arbuckle run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 3:1783% → 81%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
82.9%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Terrell Brigham) to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 1
0
81.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+1
81.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 50 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:5919% → 23%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
50
+12
81.0%
Avery Sweeting run for 12 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
81.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Gerald HowseSimilar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
81.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+34
81.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 34 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
80.6%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the SAlab 2Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.6%
Gerald Howse run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 1 yd for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.5%
Brandon Bridge run for 13 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
79.0%
Jay Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
79.5%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+13
79.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 13 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
79.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
80.4%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
80.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
80.4%
Jay Jones run for no gain to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-7
79.7%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Robert Dowling for a loss of 7 yards to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 12:45
4TH & 17
OPP 36
0
78.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 29 yds, downed at the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
76.5%
Gerald Howse run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 9Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 9
0
76.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 8
OWN 9
0
77.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan Harden, broken up by Jesse KelleySimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 8
OWN 9
0
77.4%
Matt Hubbard punt for 36 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
77.0%
Jay Jones run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
77.1%
Jay Jones run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
77.7%
Jay Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 37Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
76.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 12
OPP 37
0
75.6%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 8:07
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
74.9%
Brandon McKee punt for 30 yds, downed at the GeoSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
74.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Qudarius FordSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+11
74.4%
Gerald Howse run for 11 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+14
73.6%
Nick Arbuckle run for 14 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.9%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
73.2%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert, PENALTY USA pass interference (Ford, Qudarius) 8 yards to the GSU40, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-9
72.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Theo Rich for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 19
OWN 31
+5
74.2%
Gerald Howse run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+3
74.3%
Wil Lutz punt for 49 yds , T.J. Glover returns for 3 yds to the SAlab 39 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, illegal block (9 Yards) to the SAlab 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13DOWNS
13 plays · 45 yds · 2:5771% → 71%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
71.3%
Kendall Houston run for 7 yds to the SAlab 16Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+4
71.6%
Kendall Houston run for 4 yds to the SAlab 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Xavier Johnson for 7 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+7
72.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 7 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
72.0%
Brandon Bridge run for 7 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+5
73.0%
Jay Jones run for 5 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
73.8%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Trey Payne for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
72.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, broken up by Bruce DukesSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+9
71.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Braedon Bowman for 9 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
70.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez Smith, broken up by B.J. ClaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
65.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Theo Rich for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Gerald Howse for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
66.9%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, false start (Taylor Evans) to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
67.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 5 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-12
67.9%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Theo Rich for a loss of 12 yards to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
69.1%
Matt Hubbard punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16TD
4 plays · 41 yds · 1:2670% → 80%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
70.1%
Jay Jones run for 13 yds to the GeoSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+12
71.5%
Jay Jones run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
71.5%
Xavier Johnson run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+15
79.9%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 15 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1324% → 41%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.1%
Gerald Howse run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
76.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
76.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds to the GeoSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+57
74.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 57 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
72.1%
Nick Arbuckle run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 5Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q3 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18MISSED FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:2264% → 57%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.6%
Brandon Bridge run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+32
63.8%
Brandon Bridge run for 32 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
67.5%
Jay Jones run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
67.6%
Brandon Bridge run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+9
67.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 9 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
69.2%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 22Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+16
69.2%
Kendall Houston run for 16 yds to the GeoSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
69.2%
Kendall Houston run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.2%
Kendall Houston run for no gain to the GeoSt 1Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
67.2%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Ryan Onkka) to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
67.3%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Wes Saxton) to the GeoSt 21Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
65.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
57.2%
Aleem Sunanon 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
56.7%
Gerald Howse run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 11
OWN 20
0
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel Ruiz, broken up by Roman BuchananSimilar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 11
OWN 20
-5
58.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Duvall Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 15Similar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+48
59.9%
Wil Lutz punt for 48 yds , Jereme Jones returns for 48 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5461% → 65%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
60.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
60.7%
Jay Jones run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 11Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
58.6%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q3 2:26
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
64.9%
Aleem Sunanon 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:4639% → 38%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel Ruiz, broken up by Maleki HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q3 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
61.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
62.2%
Matt Hubbard punt for 29 yds, downed at the SAlab 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3864% → 72%
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
64.2%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+25
64.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 25 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
67.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
66.9%
Xavier Johnson run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
63.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme Jones, broken up by Tarris BatisteSimilar
Q4 14:50
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+43
72.4%
Aleem Sunanon 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 23TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 5:0231% → 68%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
68.8%
Duvall Smith run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+12
68.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 12 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
66.1%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Theo Rich and Jesse Kelley for a loss of 9 yards to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 19
OWN 30
+9
69.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+15
68.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 15 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
64.1%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+29
64.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 29 yds to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
61.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
61.9%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Ruiz, Joel, PENALTY USA pass interference (Ford, Qudarius) 14 yards to the USA2, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
61.9%
Duvall Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
61.9%
Jonathan Lytle run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.0%
Duvall Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joel Ruiz failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0044% → 41%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
44.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jay Jones for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
45.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
45.0%
Brandon Bridge run for no gain to the SAlab 36Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
42.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
41.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
33.0%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
33.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 8 yds to the GeoSt 43Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+12
31.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 12 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-13
29.8%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Jesse Kelley for a loss of 13 yards to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & 23
OWN 42
+4
34.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 4 yds to the GeoSt 46Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+13
35.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 13 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 8:27
4TH & 6
OPP 41
0
33.4%
Wil Lutz punt for 26 yds, fair catch by T.J. Glover at the SAlab 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:0234% → 84%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+65
34.1%
Brandon Bridge run for 65 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
44.0%
Jay Jones run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 18Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
84.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 18 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
65.0%
Nick Arbuckle run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 44Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+15
63.6%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Harden, Donovan, PENALTY USA pass interference (Brigham, Trrell) 15 yards to the USA41, 1ST DOWN GSU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
61.7%
Duvall Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 40Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
61.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
62.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 9
OPP 40
+6
67.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 6 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:0886% → 91%
Q4 2:22
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+5
85.9%
Houston, Kndall rush for 4 yards to the USA41 (Lawrence, Jalen;Batiste, Tarris), PENALTY GSU offside defense (Cunningham, W.) 5 yards to the USA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
87.0%
Kendall Houston run for 3 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+10
90.0%
Kendall Houston run for 10 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
90.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:02
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 18 yds for a TD, (Aleem Sunanon KICK)
+40.2
TD · Q4 9:48
Duvall Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joel Ruiz failed )
-29.9
TD · Q3 9:26
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds for a TD, (Wil Lutz KICK)
-12.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com