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ACU

Abilene Christian 37 at Georgia State 38

GAST
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 27, 2014 · Georgia Dome
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Win probability · GAST
modelGAST aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playGAST scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-0.8GAST 64.1%Nik Grau 42 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 14 · Q2 7:31
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:31 · Nik Grau 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 68Home team on offense+4.7Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Blowout margin+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 1:41: Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 24 yds for a TD (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +19.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:42: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 27 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +23.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 6:36: Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 7 yds for a TD (Nik Grau KICK) — ACU win probability +20.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:31: Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK) — GAST win probability +31.5 pts (now 51%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: Wil Lutz 26 yd FG GOOD — GAST win probability +52.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GAST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ACU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 8:58ACU 4th & 8 at GAST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.2%
    90% to make
    Punt
    48.3%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:15ACU 4th & 4 at ACU 39, up 3
    Close callPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:29ACU 4th & 5 at ACU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:31ACU 4th & 10 at GAST 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.3%
    66% to make
    Punt
    31.0%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:14GAST 4th & 15 at GAST 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:45GAST 4th & 8 at GAST 32, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:21ACU 4th & 4 at ACU 35, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:13GAST 4th & 5 at ACU 49, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:43GAST 4th & 7 at ACU 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:41ACU 4th & 2 at ACU 47, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−6.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:55GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.0%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:45GAST 4th & 19 at GAST 27, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GAST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 2:41GAST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:00GAST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:52ACU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:14GAST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:27ACU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:41ACU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:42GAST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:36ACU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:31GAST Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ACUDrive 1FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:5750% → 50%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
50.0%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 13 yds to the AblCh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
50.1%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
50.1%
Herschel Sims run for 3 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+18
50.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 18 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
50.1%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Noah Cheshier for 10 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
50.1%
Herschel Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+4
50.1%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Herschel Sims for 4 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+8
50.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 8 yds to the GeoSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
50.0%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 4 yds to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+12
50.0%
Herschel Sims run for 12 yds to the GeoSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
50.1%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 3Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 0
OPP 3
-5
50.0%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, False Start (Colton Carnes) to the GeoSt 8Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.1%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Jonathan ParkerSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
50.4%
Parker McKenzie pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
50.3%
Nik Grau 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 2INT
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:4250% → 52%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
50.2%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Gorringe) to the GeoSt 14Similar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+5
50.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 19Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+9
50.3%
Krysten Hammon run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+3
50.3%
Krysten Hammon run for 3 yds to the GeoSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
50.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 15 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
51.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 25 yds to the AblCh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
51.7%
Krysten Hammon run for 7 yds to the AblCh 22Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+3
51.8%
Krysten Hammon run for 3 yds to the AblCh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
51.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Angel Lopez return for 12 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4550% → 49%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
50.3%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
50.3%
De'Andre Brown run for 3 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+1
50.3%
Parker McKenzie run for 1 yd to the AblCh 39Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+32
50.9%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 51 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 32 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:2452% → 56%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
51.5%
Krysten Hammon run for 13 yds to the AblCh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
51.9%
Krysten Hammon run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 48Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+10
51.3%
Krysten Hammon run for 10 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+4
51.9%
Krysten Hammon run for 4 yds to the AblCh 34 Krysten Hammon fumbled, recovered by GeoSt Krysten Hammon for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
55.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 34 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5646% → 44%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
54.4%
Herschel Sims run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 28Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 11
OWN 28
0
54.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Herschel Sims for no gain to the AblCh 28Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+6
55.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Herschel Sims for 6 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
55.9%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GeoSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 6TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:1555% → 66%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
55.0%
Kyler Neal run for 8 yds to the GeoSt 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
55.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 3 yds to the GeoSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
55.6%
Krysten Hammon run for 7 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q2 14:32
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
56.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q2 14:25
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
55.8%
Krysten Hammon run for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
56.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Sweeting, Avery, PENALTY ABILENECHR pass interference (Barnett, Keith) 15 yards to the ABILENECHR36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
56.9%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+2
57.5%
Donovan Harden run for 2 yds to the AblCh 29Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
57.0%
Kyler Neal run for 5 yds to the AblCh 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Joel RuizSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
57.8%
Kyler Neal run for 3 yds to the AblCh 21Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+19
57.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 19 yds to the AblCh 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.5%
Jonathan Lytle run for 2 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:2437% → 36%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 15 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
62.7%
McKenzie, Parker pass incomplete to Green-Avery, Monte, PENALTY GEORGIAST pass interference 15 yards to the GEORGIAST45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ABILENECHR. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
62.0%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 13 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
61.9%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 30Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+9
62.2%
Parker McKenzie run for 9 yds to the GeoSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-15
62.2%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the GeoSt 36Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
63.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jonathan Parker for 9 yds to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+2
62.7%
Herschel Sims run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
62.9%
Herschel Sims run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
-5
63.9%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Jarrell Robinson for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSt 25Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
64.9%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Demarcus ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+42
64.1%
Nik Grau 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:5664% → 63%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
63.5%
Kyler Neal run for 15 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
64.0%
Kyler Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-5
63.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Gorringe) to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+1
63.8%
Kyler Neal run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 15
OWN 29
+5
63.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 10
OWN 34
-5
63.3%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q2 5:14
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
63.0%
Matt Hubbard punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Chapa at the AblCh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 1:1835% → 46%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
65.2%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Monte Green-AverySimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+9
65.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jamie Walker for 9 yds to the AblCh 36Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
64.7%
Herschel Sims run for 4 yds to the AblCh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
53.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cedric Gilbert for 60 yds for a TD ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 8 (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:5557% → 59%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
57.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 6 yds to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+9
57.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 9 yds to the GeoSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
59.1%
Kyler Neal run for 10 yds to the AblCh 48 Kyler Neal fumbled, recovered by AblCh Justin StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 11FG
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:2947% → 52%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+42
53.1%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 42 yds to the GeoSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
51.3%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Noah Cheshier for 4 yds to the GeoSt 6Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
51.4%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Cedric GilbertSimilar
Q2 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
51.9%
Parker McKenzie sacked by Jarrell Robinson for a loss of 10 yards to the GeoSt 16Similar
Q2 1:11
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+33
47.7%
Nik Grau 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 0:4651% → 66%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
51.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 11 yds to the GeoSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
51.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 4 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
53.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 11 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
54.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 10 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-3
50.7%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Nick Richardson for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 41Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 13
OPP 41
+41
61.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Avery Sweeting for 41 yds for a TD GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 8 GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 13 (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 0
OPP 8
-5
65.7%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
66.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:5563% → 62%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+13
63.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 13 yds to the GeoSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
63.8%
Duvall Smith run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
63.8%
Duvall Smith run for no gain to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+1
62.8%
Nick Arbuckle run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
61.9%
Matt Hubbard punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Chapa at the AblCh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1439% → 37%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
61.0%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+5
61.2%
Parker McKenzie run for 5 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
61.2%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Jamie WalkerSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+3
62.8%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 40 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 3 yds to the GeoSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:0764% → 65%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
64.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 6 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-1
65.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSt 33Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+13
63.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 13 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.9%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
66.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+5
64.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Duvall Smith for 5 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
65.2%
Matt Hubbard punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3337% → 59%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
62.7%
De'Andre Brown run for 7 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-5
61.5%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, False Start (Chance Rieken) to the AblCh 22Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
63.1%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jamie Walker for 9 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
62.2%
De'Andre Brown run for 4 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+15
61.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Caffey) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
50
+5
58.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 5 yds to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+22
58.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 22 yds to the GeoSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
41.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jamie Walker for 23 yds for a TD (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4450% → 48%
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
49.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
49.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+23
47.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 23 yds to the GeoSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
53.2%
Duvall Smith run for 4 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+3
53.6%
Duvall Smith run for 3 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q3 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 44
-4
53.0%
Duvall Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
48.1%
Matt Hubbard punt for 19 yds, downed at the AblCh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:3955% → 77%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
44.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 9 yds to the AblCh 38Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+16
42.5%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 16 yds to the GeoSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
41.6%
Herschel Sims run for 1 yd to the GeoSt 45Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
41.6%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Monte Green-AverySimilar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+21
42.4%
Parker McKenzie run for 6 yds to the GeoSt 39 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Tarris Batiste) to the GeoSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
23.0%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 24 yds for a TD (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20INT
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:2228% → 28%
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
27.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 13 yds to the GeoSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
28.4%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Justin Stewart return for no gain to the AblCh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:5076% → 79%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
24.1%
Herschel Sims run for 4 yds to the AblCh 40Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 40
-4
22.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Herschel Sims for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 36Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+23
24.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 23 yds to the GeoSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
22.5%
Parker McKenzie run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 39Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
22.3%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Monte Green-AverySimilar
Q4 13:54
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+10
22.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Monte Green-Avery for 10 yds to the GeoSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
21.0%
McKenzie, Parker pass complete to Cheshier, Noah for 8 yards to the GEORGIAST21, PENALTY ABILENECHR illegal formation (TEAM) 5 yards to the GEORGIAST34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
20.9%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+28
20.7%
Parker McKenzie pass intercepted Joseph Peterson return for 28 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:1828% → 53%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
28.4%
Krysten Hammon run for 13 yds to the AblCh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
30.0%
Krysten Hammon run for 5 yds to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 26
-1
29.5%
Krysten Hammon run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 27Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+27
53.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 27 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5959% → 88%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
41.1%
Demarcus Thompson run for 12 yds to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
39.4%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 39Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+8
37.7%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 8 yds to the AblCh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
37.2%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
36.6%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Jace Hudson for 2 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+22
36.8%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 22 yds to the GeoSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
34.1%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 7 yds to the GeoSt 20Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+11
34.0%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 18 for a 1ST down GEORGIA ST Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Mackendy Cheridor) to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
32.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the GeoSt 7Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
11.9%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Cade Stone for 7 yds for a TD (Nik Grau KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 1:5915% → 51%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
15.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+27
14.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
50
0
17.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Donovan HardenSimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 10
50
-3
16.3%
Nick Arbuckle sacked by Nick Richardson for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+25
13.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 25 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
19.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
19.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+14
17.2%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert, PENALTY ABILENECHR pass interference (Chapa, Tyler) 14 yards to the ABILENECHR14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
19.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the AblCh 9Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
51.1%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 1:3969% → 77%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.4%
Demarcus Thompson run for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
28.7%
De'Andre Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the AblCh 29Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
29.2%
Parker McKenzie pass complete to Demarcus Thompson for 10 yds to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
24.4%
De'Andre Brown run for 3 yds to the AblCh 42Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
24.2%
Parker McKenzie pass incomplete to Demarcus ThompsonSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
25.8%
De'Andre Brown run for 5 yds to the AblCh 47Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
23.2%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26DOWNS
19 plays · 72 yds · 2:3434% → 95%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
34.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
33.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Lynquez BlairSimilar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+5
30.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Avery Sweeting for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+12
28.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 12 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
34.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (A.J. Kaplan) to the GeoSt 31Similar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
32.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Avery SweetingSimilar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+11
31.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Kyler Neal for 11 yds to the GeoSt 42Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-10
31.5%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (A.J. Kaplan) to the GeoSt 32Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 14
OWN 32
0
26.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert DavisSimilar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-5
25.4%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Gorringe) to the GeoSt 27Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 19
OWN 27
+24
22.8%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 24 yds to the AblCh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
27.9%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete to Davis, Robert, PENALTY ABILENECHR holding (Chapa, Tyler) 10 yards to the ABILENECHR39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GEORGIAST. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
28.3%
Nick Arbuckle run for 13 yds to the AblCh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
38.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
32.4%
Nick Arbuckle run for 17 yds to the AblCh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
34.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
95.2%
Wil Lutz 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:04
Wil Lutz 26 yd FG GOOD
+52.9
TD · Q4 4:31
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 9 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)
+31.5
TD · Q4 10:42
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 27 yds for a TD (Wil Lutz KICK)
+23.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com