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ARST

Arkansas State 19 at Tennessee 34

TENN
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadARST aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreARST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:02 · Matt Darr punt for 48 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense+22.5Score differential+7.8Garbage-time factor+12.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:01: Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +2.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:10: Tres Houston 9 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Stephen Hogan PAT failed), (Stephen Hogan failed ) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined — ARST win probability +6.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 1:20: Justin Worley run for 5 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +4.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:52: Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 14 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK) — TENN win probability +5.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TENN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:06: DeKeathan Williams run for 24 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK) — ARST win probability +4.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: ARST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ARST made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00TENN 4th & 4 at TENN 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.4%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16TENN 4th & 2 at ARST 2, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.2%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:16ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:55ARST 4th & 7 at ARST 36, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:43ARST 4th & 6 at ARST 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44TENN 4th & 23 at TENN 36, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:44ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 27, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.3%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:32ARST 4th & 1 at TENN 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:54ARST 4th & 20 at ARST 48, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:48TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 5, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:46ARST 4th & 7 at TENN 40, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.6
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:41ARST 4th & 14 at ARST 45, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−1.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:43TENN 4th & 9 at TENN 16, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:35ARST 4th & 11 at ARST 45, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00TENN 4th & 7 at TENN 32, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:02TENN 4th & 8 at TENN 47, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:10ARST 4th & 5 at ARST 10, down 12
    Close callPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.1%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:02TENN 4th & 5 at ARST 17, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    80% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−3.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:02ARST 4th & 1 at ARST 29, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.3%−1.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:41TENN 4th & 1 at ARST 19, up 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%−0.6
    77% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−2.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:39ARST 4th & 2 at ARST 19, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TENN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ARST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:02TENN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:01TENN Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:10ARST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    21.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:20TENN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:52TENN Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:06ARST Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
88.9%
Marlin Lane run for no gain to the Tenn 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
88.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 2 yds to the Tenn 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+4
88.9%
Justin Worley run for 4 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+13
88.9%
Matt Darr punt for 37 yds , J.D. McKissic returns for 13 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 2:1312% → 13%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
88.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Alan Wright) to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 15
OPP 45
+2
88.4%
J.D. McKissic run for 2 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+14
88.4%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 14 yds to the Tenn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
88.3%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the Tenn 34Similar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+16
88.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 16 yds to the Tenn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
88.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 12 yds to the Tenn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
88.3%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the Tenn 4Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:4787% → 86%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.4%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 25Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Alton Howard for 8 yds to the Tenn 33Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
87.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
87.5%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 36Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+56
87.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 56 yds to the ArkSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
87.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 6Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
87.7%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marlin Lane for no gain to the ArkSt 2Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
86.4%
Aaron Medley 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.2%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 30Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-2
86.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Jr. C. Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
86.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/A ARKANSAS ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
86.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0886% → 87%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
85.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 5 yds to the Tenn 35Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+18
86.0%
Marlin Lane run for 18 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
86.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Alton Howard for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+3
86.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+11
86.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jason Croom for 11 yds to the ArkSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
86.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+9
86.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
86.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
86.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 7 yds to the ArkSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
86.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
85.9%
Fredi Knighten run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 26Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+7
85.7%
Michael Gordon run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-13
85.8%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 35 ARKANSAS ST Penalty, illegal block (Jemar Clark) to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 23
OWN 20
+16
86.0%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 16 yds to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
85.6%
Michael Gordon run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 4
OWN 39
-3
85.6%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Jalen Reeves-Maybin for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 36Similar
Q1 2:55
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
86.2%
Luke Ferguson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:2385% → 88%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
85.1%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
85.0%
Marlin Lane run for 5 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+21
84.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Smith for 21 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
85.6%
Marlin Lane run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
50
0
85.6%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Smith, broken up by Sterling YoungSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
50
+20
85.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 20 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
85.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Alton Howard for 20 yds to the ArkSt 10 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, face mask (5 yards) (Chris Humes) to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-5
86.2%
TENNESSEE Penalty, false start (Jason Croom) to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Johnathon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Ethan Wolf, broken up by Quanterio HeathSimilar
Q2 13:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
88.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
87.5%
Fredi Knighten run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
87.2%
Michael Gordon run for no gain to the ArkSt 32Similar
Q2 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+1
87.4%
Michael Gordon run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 33Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 1
OWN 33
-5
87.7%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, delay of game (Luke Ferguson) to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
88.0%
Luke Ferguson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
88.3%
Devrin Young run for 11 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.5%
Devrin Young run for no gain to the Tenn 49Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
88.4%
Justin Worley sacked by Andrew Tryon for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 45Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-9
87.8%
Justin Worley sacked by Darrius Rosser and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Tenn 36Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 23
OWN 36
0
87.3%
Matt Darr punt for 36 yds, downed at the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 10TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:3413% → 21%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-3
87.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 13
OWN 25
+2
87.6%
Michael Gordon run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 27Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
87.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+24
88.1%
Luke Ferguson pass complete to Chris Stone for 24 yds to the Tenn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
86.6%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Michael Gordon for 15 yds to the Tenn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
86.3%
Brandon Cox pass incomplete to Tres HoustonSimilar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
86.3%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 4 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
86.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the Tenn 25Similar
Q2 5:32
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+5
86.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Terrance Hollingsworth for 5 yds to the Tenn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
85.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 6 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
85.1%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for no gain to the Tenn 14Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
85.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 5 yds to the Tenn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
78.9%
Tres Houston 9 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Stephen Hogan PAT failed), (Stephen Hogan failed ) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:3684% → 90%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
84.1%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
83.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+8
83.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 8 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
85.1%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+24
84.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 24 yds to the ArkSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
85.4%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Alton HowardSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+19
85.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 4 yds to the ArkSt 32 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS ST Penalty, roughing passer (Chuks Ota) to the ArkSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
85.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Alton HowardSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+12
85.5%
Josh Smith run for 12 yds to the ArkSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
89.6%
Justin Worley run for 5 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:4912% → 12%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.4%
Johnston White run for no gain to the ArkSt 25Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete, broken up by Owen WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.7%
Fredi Knighten run for 15 yds to the ArkSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
88.6%
Fredi Knighten pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
88.7%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 9 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
88.0%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for no gain to the ArkSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 17 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
88.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Tres Houston for 9 yds to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
88.0%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
88.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 49Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 49
-5
87.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Devin Mondie) to the ArkSt 44Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+14
88.3%
Fredi Knighten run for 14 yds to the Tenn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
87.9%
ARKANSAS ST Penalty, false start (Colton Jackson) to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
88.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
88.5%
TEAM run for no gain to the ArkSt 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ArkSt Fredi KnightenSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 20
OWN 48
0
88.8%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
89.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
89.9%
Marlin Lane run for no gain to the Tenn 5Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
89.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez North, broken up by Artez BrownSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
89.4%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Ethan WolfSimilar
Q3 11:48
4TH & 10
OWN 5
+2
89.1%
Matt Darr punt for 33 yds , J.D. McKissic returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 36 J.D. McKissic fumbled, recovered by Tenn Cameron SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 15TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:1591% → 97%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
90.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+14
90.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 14 yds to the ArkSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
90.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 8 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+4
90.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 4 yds to the ArkSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
91.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 28
0
90.9%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Alton HowardSimilar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+8
90.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Smith for 8 yds to the ArkSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
90.9%
Justin Worley run for 5 yds to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+1
90.9%
Marlin Lane run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
96.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 14 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
94.4%
Brandon Byner run for 7 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
94.0%
Brandon Byner run for 4 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
94.2%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Tres Houston, broken up by Chris WeatherdSimilar
Q3 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
94.3%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Dijon PaschalSimilar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+3
94.4%
Brandon Byner run for 3 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
94.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Terrance Hollingsworth, broken up by A.J. JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 17INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.8%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+5
96.8%
Marlin Lane run for 5 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
96.7%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
96.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 1 yd to the ArkSt 48Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
96.8%
Justin Worley pass intercepted Money Hunter return for no gain to the ArkSt 48 TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
95.1%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Owen Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the ArkSt 40Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 19
OWN 40
0
95.4%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+5
95.5%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 5 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
95.5%
Luke Ferguson punt for 52 yds, downed at the Tenn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3297% → 96%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+12
96.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 12 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
97.0%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 15Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+1
97.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Tenn 16Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
97.0%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez North, broken up by Artez BrownSimilar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
95.7%
Matt Darr punt for 38 yds , Blaise Taylor returns for no gain to the ArkSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-3
95.0%
Fredi Knighten sacked by Owen Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the ArkSt 43Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 13
OWN 43
+2
95.3%
Johnston White run for 2 yds to the ArkSt 45Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
95.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion GriswoldSimilar
Q3 1:35
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
95.4%
Luke Ferguson punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:3297% → 97%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
97.0%
Marlin Lane run for 7 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
97.5%
Justin Worley run for 4 yds to the Tenn 29 Justin Worley fumbled, forced by Money Hunter, recovered by Tenn Jason Croom for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
97.5%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete, broken up by Dexter BlackmonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Smith, broken up by Andrew TryonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Matt Darr punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Blaise Taylor at the ArkSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 22TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 3:364% → 9%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
96.1%
Brandon Byner run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 4
OWN 23
-1
95.8%
Brandon Byner run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 22Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+8
96.2%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 8 yds to the ArkSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
95.9%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Darion Griswold for 9 yds to the ArkSt 39Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
95.8%
Johnston White run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
95.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 2
50
-4
95.4%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArkSt 46Similar
Q4 13:42
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+18
95.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Dijon Paschal for 18 yds to the Tenn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
95.7%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 12 yds to the Tenn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
95.0%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Brandon CoxSimilar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
90.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for 24 yds for a TD, (Luke Ferguson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 47Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
95.4%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh Malone, broken up by Andrew TryonSimilar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 8
OWN 47
0
95.1%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh SmithSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
94.6%
Matt Darr punt for 48 yds, downed at the ArkSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
95.1%
Fredi Knighten run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 11Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OWN 11
-1
94.9%
DeKeathan Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 10Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
95.1%
Fredi Knighten pass incomplete to Darion Griswold, broken up by Brian RandolphSimilar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+21
95.1%
Luke Ferguson punt for 46 yds , Jacob Carter returns for 21 yds to the ArkSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 25MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 4:0096% → 97%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
95.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
95.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 6 yds to the ArkSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
95.8%
Jalen Hurd run for 3 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 8:02
2ND & 7
OPP 19
-2
95.8%
Jalen Hurd run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArkSt 21Similar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+4
95.7%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 17Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
96.5%
Aaron Medley 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.2%
Terrance Hollingsworth run for no gain to the ArkSt 20Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
96.3%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 8 yds to the ArkSt 28Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
95.8%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to J.D. McKissic for 1 yd to the ArkSt 29Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-1
95.9%
Fredi Knighten run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArkSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 27FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0698% → 99%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
97.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 24Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+1
97.6%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 23Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+4
98.3%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+38
98.7%
Aaron Medley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARSTDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
99.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Jr. C. Lee for 3 yds to the ArkSt 14Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+1
99.1%
Brandon Byner run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 15Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+4
99.1%
Fredi Knighten pass complete to Booker Mays for 4 yds to the ArkSt 19Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 2
OWN 19
+1
99.1%
Johnston White run for 1 yd to the ArkSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:10
Tres Houston 9 Yd pass from Fredi Knighten (Stephen Hogan PAT failed), (Stephen Hogan failed ) ARKANSAS ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declined
-6.8
TD · Q3 7:52
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 14 yds for a TD, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+5.7
TD · Q2 1:20
Justin Worley run for 5 yds for a TD ARKANSAS ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Aaron Medley KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com