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FLA

Florida 21 at Alabama 42

ALA
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:58 · Kyle Christy punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Pregame prior+27.5Home team on offense−0.9Score differential−1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:19: Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +4.6 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:42: Jeff Driskel run for 14 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK) — FLA win probability +11.9 pts (now 33%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:27: Derrick Henry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +15.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:21: Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +6.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:10: Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +3.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4FLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:59FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:46ALA 4th & 6 at FLA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.8%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:23FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:58FLA 4th & 14 at ALA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:18ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 21, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:34FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:44ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:28FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 43, down 7
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 8:34FLA 4th & 10 at ALA 49, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:00ALA 4th & 13 at FLA 13, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:58FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6FLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:47ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:26FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:12ALA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:19ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:42FLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:27ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:21ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:10ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FLADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5113% → 14%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 4 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
86.6%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the Fla 29Similar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q1 13:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
86.5%
Kyle Christy punt for 58 yds, downed at the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+87
86.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Kenyan Drake for 87 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:1713% → 14%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
86.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+18
86.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Clay Burton for 18 yds to the Fla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-6
86.4%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 35Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Latroy PittmanSimilar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Clay BurtonSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+17
86.5%
Kyle Christy punt for 58 yds , Christion Jones returns for 17 yds to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
86.5%
Kenyan Drake run for 7 yds to the Alab 31 Kenyan Drake fumbled, forced by Marcus Maye, recovered by Fla Vernon HargreavesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 5TD
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:3414% → 15%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
86.2%
Jeff Driskel run for 3 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
86.1%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Matt JonesSimilar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+28
85.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Valdez Showers for 28 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6FUMBLE TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3686% → 84%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
85.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 21Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 11
OWN 21
+6
85.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 6 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+26
85.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 26 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
85.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Kelly) to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+49
84.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 7 yds, DeAndrew White fumbled, forced by Neiron Ball, recovered by Fla Keanu Neal, return for 49 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:3284% → 82%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
83.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+13
83.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 13 yds to the Alab 28Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
83.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 1 yd to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
83.1%
Blake Sims run for 3 yds to the Alab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
82.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+37
82.4%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 37 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q1 5:56
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
82.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
82.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari Cooper, broken up by Darious CummingsSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+45
82.1%
Adam Griffith 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1219% → 19%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
81.4%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-2
81.1%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 30Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
81.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q1 4:23
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
81.1%
Kyle Christy punt for 49 yds, downed at the Alab 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
1 play · 79 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+79
83.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 79 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5017% → 19%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
82.9%
Matt Jones run for 11 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
82.3%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+7
81.9%
Matt Jones run for 7 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+8
81.4%
Jeff Driskel run for 8 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-3
81.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Andre Debose for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 13
OPP 39
0
81.2%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 13
OPP 39
0
81.5%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Jabriel Washington return for no gain to the Alab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11FUMBLE
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:4882% → 83%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
82.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+17
82.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 17 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
82.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 5 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
82.6%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to T.J. YeldonSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+12
82.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 12 yds to the Fla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
82.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Fla 45Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+13
82.5%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 13 yds to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
82.6%
Blake Sims run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 35 Blake Sims fumbled, forced by Leon Orr, recovered by Fla Dante Fowler at the Alab 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0221% → 20%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
78.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for 1 yd to the Alab 34Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
78.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Valdez Showers, broken up by Landon CollinsSimilar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 9
OPP 34
-5
79.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 14
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Valdez ShowersSimilar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 14
OPP 39
0
80.3%
Kyle Christy punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Christion Jones at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1781% → 79%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
80.5%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Alab 17Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 17
0
80.4%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 5
OWN 17
+4
79.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Christion Jones for 4 yds to the Alab 21Similar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
79.1%
JK Scott punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1023% → 23%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
77.5%
Jeff Driskel run for 9 yds to the Alab 42Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-2
77.1%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 44 Matt Jones fumbled, recovered by Alab Reggie RaglandSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:0181% → 86%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
81.0%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+21
81.2%
Blake Sims run for 6 yds to the ALABAMA 47 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (Darious Cummings) to the Fla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
81.4%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+19
81.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 19 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 0
OPP 8
-5
81.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 13Similar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
81.0%
Derrick Henry run for 11 yds to the Fla 2Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.6%
Blake Sims pass complete to Jalston Fowler for 2 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:3216% → 16%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
84.0%
Kelvin Taylor run for 4 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+6
83.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Clay Burton for 6 yds to the Fla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
83.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Andre DeboseSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
83.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+5
84.3%
Jeff Driskel run for 5 yds to the Fla 29Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
84.5%
Kyle Christy punt for 54 yds , Christion Jones returns for no gain to the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:3184% → 82%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
84.3%
Blake Sims run for 9 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 1
OWN 26
-2
84.7%
T.J. Yeldon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+6
83.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds to the Alab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
84.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 7 yds to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
84.9%
Derrick Henry run for 1 yd to the Alab 38Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+5
83.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for 5 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.5%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to DeAndrew WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
84.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Touching (DeAndrew White) to the Alab 43Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
83.1%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to T.J. YeldonSimilar
Q2 1:44
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
82.2%
JK Scott punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 1:3517% → 17%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
82.7%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 21Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
82.8%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
82.6%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19INT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3884% → 85%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.6%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
83.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Alab 21Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+16
83.2%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 16 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
84.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+20
84.5%
Blake Sims pass intercepted Antonio Morrison return for 20 yds to the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 20TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:1821% → 33%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
79.2%
Kelvin Taylor run for 2 yds to the Alab 14Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
67.3%
Jeff Driskel run for 14 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
19 plays · 66 yds · 6:4874% → 87%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
74.0%
T.J. Yeldon run for 2 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+7
74.2%
T.J. Yeldon run for 7 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
74.9%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
75.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Jalston FowlerSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
74.8%
Blake Sims run for 9 yds to the Fla 44Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
75.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 4 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-8
75.4%
Blake Sims sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 8 yards to the Fla 48Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 18
OPP 48
+6
73.6%
Derrick Henry run for 6 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+12
72.8%
Blake Sims pass complete to DeAndrew White for 12 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
75.6%
Derrick Henry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 31Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+10
75.3%
Blake Sims pass complete to O.J. Howard for 10 yds to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
74.2%
Blake Sims run for 2 yds to the Fla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
75.3%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Amari CooperSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
75.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Leon Brown) to the Fla 24Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+7
73.7%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q3 6:07
3RD & 8
OPP 17
-15
73.9%
ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Amari Cooper) to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 5:56
3RD & 23
OPP 32
+29
71.7%
Blake Sims pass complete to Derrick Henry for 29 yds to the Fla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.7%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3219% → 18%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
81.2%
Matt Jones run for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
79.7%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
79.8%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the Fla 43Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
81.6%
Kyle Christy punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5484% → 95%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.3%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 20Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+24
85.0%
Blake Sims run for 24 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+25
86.7%
Derrick Henry run for 25 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
87.3%
Derrick Henry run for 13 yds to the Fla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
87.3%
T.J. Yeldon run for 10 yds to the Fla 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
88.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Darious Cummings) to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.6%
Jake Coker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
88.6%
T.J. Yeldon run for no gain to the Fla 4Similar
Q3 0:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
94.9%
Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 24INT
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:087% → 7%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
92.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 17 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
92.3%
ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Geno Smith) to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
91.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
91.8%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 2 yards to the Fla 47Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+12
92.6%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Landon Collins return for 12 yds to the Alab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3595% → 99%
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.1%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+37
95.1%
Blake Sims pass complete to T.J. Yeldon for 37 yds to the Fla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
95.4%
T.J. Yeldon run for 10 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
95.7%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Fla 10Similar
Q4 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+8
95.6%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Fla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.8%
T.J. Yeldon run for 1 yd to the Fla 1Similar
Q4 10:32
2ND & 0
OPP 1
-5
96.1%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Kelly) to the Fla 6Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
95.8%
Blake Sims pass incomplete to Jalston FowlerSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.0%
Blake Sims pass complete to Amari Cooper for 6 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:211% → 1%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
99.0%
Jeff Driskel run for 18 yds to the Fla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.9%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 41Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+10
98.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 10 yds to the Alab 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Clay BurtonSimilar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete, broken up by Jarran ReedSimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q4 8:34
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
99.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Ahmad FulwoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
99.1%
Derrick Henry run for 8 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+7
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 7 yds to the Fla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.2%
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+5
99.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Fla 27Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+11
99.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 11 yds to the Fla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
99.3%
Kenyan Drake run for 3 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the Fla 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
99.4%
Kenyan Drake run for a loss of 6 yards to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
99.4%
Derrick Henry run for 4 yds to the Fla 8Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 0
OPP 8
-5
99.4%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.5%
Derrick Henry run for no gain to the Fla 13Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+5
99.4%
Derrick Henry run for 5 yds to the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:471% → 1%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
99.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Clay Burton for 9 yds to the Fla 18Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+8
99.4%
Jeff Driskel run for 8 yds to the Fla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Mack Brown for 4 yds to the Fla 30Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
99.4%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Latroy Pittman, broken up by Landon CollinsSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+4
99.5%
Jeff Driskel run for 4 yds to the Fla 34Similar
Q4 0:58
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Kyle Christy punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.6%
Tyren Jones run for 2 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-3
99.6%
Tyren Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:27
Derrick Henry run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 12:42
Jeff Driskel run for 14 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q3 0:21
Jake Coker pass complete to Amari Cooper for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com