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FLA

Florida 10 at Tennessee 9

TENN
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Neyland Stadium
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Win probability · TENN
modelTENN aheadFLA aheadconfidence bandkey playTENN scoreFLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGEnd of GameFG+4.2TENN 78.9%Aaron Medley 39 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 9 · Q3 2:21
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Q3 2:21 · Aaron Medley 39 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+31.0+15.50−15.5−31.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense+13.1Score differential+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Garbage-time factor+7.5Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 13:40: Matt Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK) — FLA win probability +23.2 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 6:20: Austin Hardin 49 yd FG GOOD — FLA win probability +16.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  3. INT · Q4 0:51: Justin Worley pass intercepted Keanu Neal return for no gain to the Fla 23 — TENN win probability +10.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:46: TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 20 — FLA win probability +26.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:01: TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 8 — FLA win probability +15.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TENN made the numbers' call on 10 of 12FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:45TENN 4th & 3 at TENN 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39FLA 4th & 13 at TENN 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:48TENN 4th & 11 at TENN 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:18FLA 4th & 6 at TENN 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:32TENN 4th & 2 at TENN 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:23TENN 4th & 5 at FLA 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−2.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:29FLA 4th & 2 at FLA 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:26TENN 4th & 3 at FLA 37, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    53.6%−1.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:00FLA 4th & 15 at TENN 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.6%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:59TENN 4th & 26 at TENN 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−3.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:12FLA 4th & 16 at FLA 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−3.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:48TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:24TENN 4th & 13 at FLA 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−8.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:30FLA 4th & 8 at FLA 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−2.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:21TENN 4th & 18 at FLA 21, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−4.9
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−12.2
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:55FLA 4th & 18 at FLA 18, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−4.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:58TENN 4th & 6 at TENN 42, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−2.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:20FLA 4th & 3 at TENN 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.3
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−7.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:19TENN 4th & 15 at TENN 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:39FLA 4th & 16 at TENN 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−4.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−3.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:04TENN 4th & 10 at TENN 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.0%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q4 13:40FLA Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TENNDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5050% → 50%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
50.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 17Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+5
50.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 5 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 22
0
50.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 3
OWN 22
0
50.4%
Matt Darr punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Andre Debose at the Fla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:5150% → 49%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
50.5%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 34Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+16
50.6%
Jeff Driskel run for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
50
+5
50.4%
Jeff Driskel run for 5 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
50.5%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 4 yds to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
50.6%
Jeff Driskel run for 3 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
50.5%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-1
50.5%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 11
OPP 39
-2
50.8%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Kelvin Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 41Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
51.2%
Kyle Christy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4151% → 51%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
51.2%
Justin Worley run for 4 yds to the Tenn 10Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
51.2%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 10Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 6
OWN 10
-5
51.3%
Justin Worley sacked by Antonio Morrison for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 5Similar
Q1 8:48
4TH & 11
OWN 5
0
51.0%
Matt Darr punt for 40 yds , Andre Debose returns for no gain to the Fla 5 FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4FUMBLE
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1749% → 49%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
50.7%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Fla 48Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
50.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Latroy Pittman for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 5
50
+7
50.7%
Jeff Driskel run for 7 yds to the Tenn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
50.6%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
50.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Matt Jones for 4 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
50.8%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Clay BurtonSimilar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
51.3%
Kyle Christy punt for 32 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for no gain to the Tenn 7 Cameron Sutton fumbled, recovered by Tenn Cameron SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:2852% → 52%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+7
51.9%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 14
+2
52.0%
Jalen Hurd run for 2 yds to the Tenn 16Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 1
OWN 16
-5
51.7%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Jashon Robertson) to the Tenn 11Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+3
51.7%
Justin Worley pass complete to Daniel Helm for 13 yds to the Tenn 24 TENNESSEE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Tenn 14Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+8
51.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 8 yds to the Tenn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
52.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 6 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+3
52.7%
Marlin Lane run for 3 yds to the Tenn 31Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-5
52.6%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (Brendan Downs) to the Tenn 26Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+4
52.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Daniel Helm for 4 yds to the Tenn 30Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
52.4%
Matt Darr punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andre Debose at the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:4948% → 48%
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
51.7%
Valdez Showers run for a loss of 5 yards to the Fla 25Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+2
52.1%
Jeff Driskel run for 2 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q1 1:21
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-1
52.5%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Cameron Sutton return for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 7FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5454% → 56%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
54.4%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
54.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for no gain to the Tenn 47Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+13
53.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for 13 yds to the Fla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
55.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 1 yd to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+17
55.2%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 17 yds to the Fla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
55.9%
Marlin Lane run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 23Similar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+6
55.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Von Pearson for 6 yds to the Fla 17Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
55.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+36
55.7%
Aaron Medley 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3145% → 45%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
54.8%
Matt Jones run for 7 yds to the Fla 42Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
53.2%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
53.6%
Jeff Driskel run for no gain to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
54.8%
Kyle Christy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:5755% → 56%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
54.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for 9 yds to the Tenn 28Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+2
55.5%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 2 yds to the Tenn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
54.8%
Marlin Lane run for 1 yd to the Tenn 31Similar
Q2 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+25
54.8%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 25 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
57.3%
Pig Howard run for 5 yds to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
57.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Marquez North for no gain to the Fla 39Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+2
57.1%
Justin Worley pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 2 yds to the Fla 37Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
56.1%
Matt Darr punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:0044% → 42%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
55.6%
Matt Jones run for 7 yds to the Fla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
55.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Clay Burton for 5 yds to the Fla 38Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
54.4%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Latroy PittmanSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+11
55.2%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Latroy Pittman for 11 yds to the Fla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+16
54.0%
Matt Jones run for 16 yds to the Tenn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
53.0%
Matt Jones run for 1 yd to the Tenn 34Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-1
53.1%
Jeff Driskel run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
54.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q2 5:17
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-5
57.1%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 15
OPP 40
0
57.7%
Kyle Christy punt for 23 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:3157% → 55%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
57.1%
Jalen Hurd run for 4 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 6
OWN 22
-5
57.3%
Worley, Justin pass complete to Hurd, Jalen for 5 yards to the TENNESSEE27, PENALTY TENNESSEE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TENNESSEE17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+5
56.9%
Marlin Lane run for 5 yds to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-5
56.1%
TENNESSEE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 17Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+21
55.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 21 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.5%
Marlin Lane run for 2 yds to the Tenn 40Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-5
58.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 35Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-13
56.1%
Justin Worley sacked by Bryan Cox for a loss of 13 yards to the Tenn 22Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 26
OWN 22
0
55.1%
Matt Darr punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:3043% → 43%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
57.0%
Matt Jones run for 11 yds to the Fla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
55.3%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Matt Jones for 4 yds to the Fla 46Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
54.7%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Latroy PittmanSimilar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
55.7%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 15 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
53.7%
Jeff Driskel run for 1 yd to the Tenn 38Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
53.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Latroy PittmanSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 9
OPP 38
-1
54.6%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Matt Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 39Similar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 10
OPP 39
-5
57.2%
FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Tenn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-12
58.0%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Jalen Reeves-Maybin return for 1 yd to the Fla 26 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (13 Yards) to the Fla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
63.2%
Justin Worley pass intercepted, touchback. Vernon Hargreaves return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1842% → 40%
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
58.1%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 11 yds to the Fla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
57.6%
Jeff Driskel run for 16 yds to the Fla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
55.3%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 49Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
55.0%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the Tenn 49Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-10
55.5%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Derek Barnett for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 41Similar
Q3 12:12
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
60.1%
Kyle Christy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cameron Sutton at the Tenn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1260% → 58%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
59.5%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 6
OWN 19
0
59.6%
Marlin Lane run for no gain to the Tenn 19Similar
Q3 11:02
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
58.5%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q3 10:48
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
57.7%
Matt Darr punt for 61 yds, downed at the Fla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 17INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3841% → 40%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.9%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Demarcus RobinsonSimilar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
59.3%
Kelvin Taylor run for 6 yds to the Fla 26Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+21
59.9%
Jeff Driskel pass intercepted Todd Kelly Jr. return for 21 yds to the Fla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 18FG
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3365% → 66%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
65.3%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-3
65.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Devrin Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 20Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 13
OPP 20
0
62.6%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Pig HowardSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+38
66.2%
Aaron Medley 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:5035% → 32%
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
65.0%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the Fla 22 Matt Jones fumbled, recovered by Fla Matt JonesSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
65.2%
Jeff Driskel run for 5 yds to the Fla 27Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+3
65.4%
Jeff Driskel run for 3 yds to the Fla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.2%
Matt Jones run for no gain to the Fla 30Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-7
66.0%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Curt Maggitt for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 23Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+9
68.0%
Matt Jones run for 9 yds to the Fla 32Similar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+4
68.2%
Kyle Christy punt for 40 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 4 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 20FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3970% → 79%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
69.5%
Devrin Young run for 7 yds to the Tenn 39Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+18
72.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Devrin Young for 18 yds to the Fla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
73.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 3 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+27
73.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Johnathon Johnson for 27 yds to the Fla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
74.1%
Marlin Lane run for no gain to the Fla 13Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-1
74.3%
Justin Worley pass complete to Jalen Hurd for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 14Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 11
OPP 14
-7
74.7%
Justin Worley sacked by Bryan Cox for a loss of 7 yards to the Fla 21Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 18
OPP 21
+39
78.9%
Aaron Medley 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:5521% → 18%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
79.3%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds to the Fla 28Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
79.0%
Jeff Driskel pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q3 1:05
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-10
80.9%
Jeff Driskel sacked by Chris Weatherd for a loss of 10 yards to the Fla 18Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 18
OWN 18
+2
82.1%
Kyle Christy punt for 46 yds , Cameron Sutton returns for 2 yds to the Tenn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0682% → 83%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
82.4%
Jalen Hurd run for 5 yds to the Tenn 43Similar
Q3 0:19
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-13
82.7%
Justin Worley sacked by Jalen Tabor for a loss of 13 yards to the Tenn 30 Justin Worley fumbled, recovered by Fla Jalen Tabor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 1:2124% → 47%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
76.0%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Tenn 27Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+12
75.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Matt Jones for 12 yds to the Tenn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
75.8%
Treon Harris run for 10 yds to the Tenn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
76.0%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Tenn 2Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.8%
Matt Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:2262% → 63%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
61.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Josh Malone for 3 yds to the Tenn 19Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+4
63.7%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the Tenn 23Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+4
62.7%
Marlin Lane run for 4 yds to the Tenn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
64.5%
Jalen Hurd run for 11 yds to the Tenn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
66.3%
Jalen Hurd run for 7 yds to the Tenn 45Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-6
68.1%
Justin Worley sacked by Bryan Cox for a loss of 6 yards to the Tenn 39Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+3
64.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Ethan Wolf for 3 yds to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 9:58
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
63.0%
Matt Darr punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andre Debose at the Fla 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:2838% → 61%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
61.6%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Fla 24Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
61.1%
Treon Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+5
63.4%
Treon Harris pass complete to Tevin Westbrook for 5 yds to the Fla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+32
61.3%
Matt Jones run for 32 yds to the Tenn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
56.3%
Treon Harris run for 5 yds to the Tenn 34Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-1
55.1%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tenn 35Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+3
56.1%
Matt Jones run for 3 yds to the Tenn 32Similar
Q4 6:20
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+49
39.3%
Austin Hardin 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:4948% → 43%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
47.6%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
47.0%
Justin Worley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-5
44.7%
Justin Worley sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 5 yards to the Tenn 17Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
42.7%
Matt Darr punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:2165% → 64%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
35.2%
Treon Harris run for 4 yds to the Tenn 48Similar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
34.2%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the Tenn 44Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
34.0%
Matt Jones run for 4 yds to the Tenn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
32.2%
Matt Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tenn 42Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-4
31.9%
Kelvin Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tenn 46Similar
Q4 2:46
3RD & 16
OPP 46
0
33.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Quinton DunbarSimilar
Q4 2:39
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
36.3%
Kyle Christy punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tenn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TENNDrive 28INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:4345% → 48%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
45.1%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Marquez NorthSimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
44.3%
Justin Worley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+15
41.6%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 15 yds to the Tenn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
46.6%
Jalen Hurd run for no gain to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
45.9%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for no gain to the Tenn 37Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
40.8%
Justin Worley pass incomplete to Josh MaloneSimilar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+15
37.4%
Justin Worley pass complete to Pig Howard for 15 yds to the Fla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
48.0%
Justin Worley pass intercepted Keanu Neal return for no gain to the Fla 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:4578% → 93%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
21.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 20Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+5
22.0%
TENNESSEE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Fla 25Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-13
20.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 22 FLORIDA Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the Fla 12Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 21
OWN 12
-4
6.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:46
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Fla 20
-26.3
TD · Q4 13:40
Matt Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)
-23.2
FG · Q4 6:20
Austin Hardin 49 yd FG GOOD
-16.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com