2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
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Win probability · FLA
modelFLA aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playFLA scoreEKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Kyle Christy punt for 47 yds , Stanley Absanon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EKent 21 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 12:08: Austin Hardin 48 yd FG GOOD — EKU win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- FG · Q1 0:55: Andrew Lloyd 51 yd FG GOOD — EKU win probability +0.7 pts (now 4%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:33: Treon Harris pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 70 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +1.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:29: Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 19 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:40: Jeff Driskel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK) — FLA win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7EKU made the numbers' call on 11 of 15
- Q1 15:00EKU 4th & 9 at EKU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it3.6%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.7%average punt
- Q1 12:08FLA 4th & 14 at EKU 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snapGo for it95.7%−0.119% to convertField goalTheir call95.8%54% to makePunt95.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 12:08EKU 4th & 6 at EKU 18, down 3Close callWent for it · 4.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.1%average punt
- Q1 11:02FLA 4th & 1 at EKU 14, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.7%71% to convertField goal95.6%−0.184% to makePunt95.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 8:35EKU 4th & 3 at EKU 36, down 10Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 7:33FLA 4th & 5 at FLA 25, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q1 0:55EKU 4th & 9 at FLA 33, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call5.5%49% to makePunt5.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q2 12:51EKU 4th & 11 at FLA 11, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%−0.222% to convertField goal4.9%87% to makePunt3.6%−1.2average punt
- Q2 12:51FLA 4th & 3 at FLA 32, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.4%average punt
- Q2 8:29EKU 4th & 11 at EKU 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.325% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q2 4:40EKU 4th & 2 at FLA 37, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%57% to convertField goal0.4%−0.640% to makePunt0.2%−0.7average punt
- Q2 0:34EKU 4th & 18 at FLA 43, down 28Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.313% to convertField goal0.8%28% to makePuntTheir call0.7%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00FLA 4th & 9 at FLA 22, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.3%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
- Q3 13:50EKU 4th & 17 at EKU 13, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.513% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 12:16FLA 4th & 2 at EKU 25, up 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.5%57% to convertField goal99.4%−0.166% to makePunt99.0%−0.5average punt
- Q3 9:39EKU 4th & 15 at EKU 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 2:19EKU 4th & 4 at FLA 35, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%48% to convertField goal0.1%−0.145% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:53EKU 4th & 4 at EKU 41, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:57FLA 4th & 6 at FLA 20, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 11:30EKU 4th & 15 at EKU 35, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:18EKU 4th & 14 at EKU 12, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 8:35FLA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:33FLA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:29FLA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:40FLA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:10FLA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:53FLA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:18FLA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEKUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
FLADrive 2FG4 plays · -4 yds · 1:2198% → 98%
Q1 13:29
3RD & 6
OPP 23
-8
97.8%
Treon Harris sacked by Chris Kelly for a loss of 8 yards to the EKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 3DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 4TD6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2798% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 8:35
2ND & 3
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Dy'Shawn Mobley, broken up by Michael TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 7:33
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+10
97.1%
Kyle Christy punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKent 30 , Stanley Absanon returns for 10 yds to the EKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 7FG14 plays · 37 yds · 5:163% → 4%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
97.0%
Bennie Coney pass complete to JJ Jude for 1 yd JJ Jude fumbled, forced by Marcus Maye, recovered by EKent JJ JudeSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+2
97.0%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Taylor Miller for 2 yds to the EKent 33Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+12
97.0%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Jeff Glover for 12 yds to the EKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-14
97.0%
JJ Jude run for a loss of 14 yards to the EKent 31 JJ Jude fumbled, recovered by EKent JJ JudeSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 17
OWN 38
+18
97.0%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Jeff Glover for 18 yds to the Fla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
96.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Fla 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by EKent Taylor MillerSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+8
96.9%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Dy'Shawn Mobley for 8 yds to the Fla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
96.9%
Bennie Coney pass incomplete to Taylor Miller, broken up by Vernon HargreavesSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
96.2%
LLOYD, Andrew kickoff 11 yards to the EKU46, on-side kick, recovered by EKU on EKU46, PENALTY EKU illegal block 5 yards to the EKU30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 8TD2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
97.1%
Treon Harris pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 70 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 0:333% → 3%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-1
96.8%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Dy'Shawn Mobley for a loss of 1 yard to the EKent 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+5
96.9%
FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive offside (Dante Fowler) to the EKent 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
96.9%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 10FUMBLE1 play · -13 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the Fla 8 TEAM fumbled, recovered by EKent LaJuan Smith , return for 18 yds to the Fla 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 11DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 12PUNT5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 12:51
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
96.8%
Kyle Christy punt for 51 yds , Stanley Absanon returns for 9 yds to the EKent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 13FUMBLE1 play · -7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
96.3%
Dy'Shawn Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 19 Dy'Shawn Mobley fumbled, forced by Caleb Brantley, recovered by Fla Gerald WillisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 14TD2 plays · 19 yds · 0:1697% → 98%
EKUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.1%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Dy'Shawn Mobley) to the EKent 20Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+4
98.1%
Bennie Coney pass complete to Dy'Shawn Mobley for 4 yds to the EKent 24Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-4
98.1%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 42 yds , Andre Debose returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Fla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 16TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4198% → 99%
EKUDrive 17PUNT16 plays · 32 yds · 4:061% → 0%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.2%
Jared McClain pass complete to Scott Daniel for 1 yd to the EKent 36Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+9
99.2%
Jared McClain pass complete to Scott Daniel for 9 yds to the EKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+19
99.2%
Jared McClain run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (15 Yards) to the Fla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.2%
Jared McClain pass complete to Scott Daniel for 5 yds to the Fla 40Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Barton Mann pass incomplete to Jeff Glover, broken up by Jalen TaborSimilar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 4
OPP 29
-14
99.4%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (Jeff Glover) to the Fla 43Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 18
OPP 43
+4
99.6%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 15 , Andre Debose returns for 4 yds to the Fla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 18END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 19PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
99.6%
Treon Harris pass incomplete to Ahmad Fulwood, broken up by Trey ThomasSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 22
+57
99.6%
Kyle Christy punt for 47 yds , Stanley Absanon returns for a loss of 1 yard to the EKent 21 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
FLADrive 21DOWNS7 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 12:16
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+19
99.7%
Treon Harris pass complete to Clay Burton for 19 yds to the EKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Barton Mann pass complete to Scott Daniel for 4 yds to the EKent 29Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
99.7%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Dustin Crane) to the EKent 24Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-8
99.7%
Barton Mann sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 8 yards to the EKent 16Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+4
99.7%
JJ Jude run for 4 yds to the EKent 20 EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
99.7%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 23TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
EKUDrive 24DOWNS11 plays · 57 yds · 3:510% → 0%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
99.8%
MANN, Barton sideline pass incomplete to BROWN, Joel, PENALTY UF pass interference (Tabor,J.) 15 yards to the EKU23, 1ST DOWN EKU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Barton Mann pass incomplete to Devin Borders, broken up by Quincy WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 25TD6 plays · 65 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q3 2:11
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+26
99.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 26 yds to the EKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Latroy Pittman for 7 yds to the EKent 30Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+29
99.9%
Jeff Driskel pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 29 yds for a TD, (Francisco Velez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Kentayvus Hopkins run for 10 yds to the EKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Barton Mann pass complete to Jaucady Rutledge for 3 yds to the EKent 38Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 27PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
EKUDrive 28PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
100.0%
Barton Mann pass complete to Taylor Miller for a loss of 2 yards to the EKent 38Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-3
100.0%
Barton Mann sacked by Joey Ivie for a loss of 3 yards to the EKent 35Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Keith Wrzuszczak punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Fla 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 29TD7 plays · 67 yds · 3:21100% → 100%
EKUDrive 30PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:18
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-6
100.0%
Barton Mann sacked by Alex McCalister for a loss of 6 yards to the EKent 12 Barton Mann fumbled, recovered by EKent Kentayvus Hopkins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FLADrive 31END OF GAME7 plays · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
100.0%
FLORIDA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the EKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:29
Treon Harris pass complete to Demarcus Robinson for 19 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q1 0:33
Treon Harris pass complete to Quinton Dunbar for 70 yds for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 4:40
Jeff Driskel run for 1 yd for a TD, (Austin Hardin KICK)
+0.9