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ODU

Old Dominion 35 at UTEP 42

UTEP
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.4UTEP 98.1%Autrey Golden 32 Yd pass from JameillShowers (Jay Mattox Kick)AWAY 28 - HOME 42 · Q4 2:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:03 · Autrey Golden 32 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+29.5Garbage-time factor+14.6Score differential+12.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Blowout margin−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+5.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:40: Ray Lawry 4 Yd Run (Ricky Segers Kick) — ODU win probability +14.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:31: Josh Bell 37 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +17.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:57: Ray Lawry 7 Yd Run (Ricky Segers Kick) — ODU win probability +16.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:53: David Washington 1 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Jarrett Cervi Kick) — ODU win probability +28.1 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:44: Autrey Golden 10 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick) — UTEP win probability +30.8 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 3 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:13ODU 4th & 23 at ODU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10UTEP 4th & 4 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:31ODU 4th & 3 at UTEP 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−0.8
    66% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:07ODU 4th & 4 at ODU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:27UTEP 4th & 12 at ODU 41, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54UTEP 4th & 1 at ODU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−1.7
    68% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−6.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:07UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.4%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:53UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−3.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ODU 4th & 7 at UTEP 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    46.1%−2.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:44ODU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:06UTEP 4th & 3 at ODU 35, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.8%−0.8
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    92.6%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:13UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:30ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:49UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:07UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:40ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:31UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:57ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:53ODU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:44UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−2.0
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:03UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:10ODU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.5%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the ODU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
49.5%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Cooper Brock for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
49.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+19
49.5%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 45 yds , Damian Payne returns for 19 yds to the ODU 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:1750% → 52%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
50.0%
Josh Bell run for 2 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+1
50.0%
Aaron Jones run for 1 yd to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+37
50.0%
Autrey Golden run for 37 yds to the ODU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
50.0%
SHOWERS,Jameill crossing pass incomplete to WHITE, Jaquan, PENALTY ODU offside (GUMBS, Malik) 5 yards to the ODU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.1%
Josh Bell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jay Mattox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
51.5%
Ray Lawry run for 3 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
51.5%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Alvin Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q1 11:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-9
51.7%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Roy Robertson-Harris and Anthony Puente for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 12Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
51.8%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Damian Payne at the UTEP 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
53.4%
Josh Bell run for 5 yds to the UTEP 49Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
53.5%
Darrin Laufasa run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 4
50
0
53.3%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 4
50
0
52.9%
Mikael Sroka punt, punt out-of-bounds at the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:0347% → 51%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
52.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 8 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+11
52.7%
Gerard Johnson run for 11 yds to the UTEP 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
52.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+19
52.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 19 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
52.4%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 13Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
49.5%
Zach Pascal 13 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Ricky Segers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 9:4151% → 61%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
51.0%
SHOWERS,Jameill sideline pass complete to BATSON, Tyler for 17 yards to the UTEP42 (PAULHILL, Phil), PENALTY UTEP pass interference 12 yards to the UTEP13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 22
OWN 13
-5
50.9%
SHOWERS,Jameill slant pass complete to TOMLINSON, Eric for 17 yards to the UTEP30 (MISHER, F.;STATON, Richie), PENALTY UTEP illegal formation 5 yards to the UTEP8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 27
OWN 8
+4
50.7%
Aaron Jones run for 4 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+6
50.8%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Josh Bell for 6 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
51.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 6 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+3
51.9%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
51.7%
Nathan Jeffery run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for no gain to the UTEP 44Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
51.7%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+14
52.5%
Autrey Golden run for 14 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
53.7%
Aaron Jones run for 12 yds to the ODU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.0%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
53.9%
Nathan Jeffery run for 7 yds to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
53.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for 4 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
54.0%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+2
54.0%
Jameill Showers run for 2 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+13
53.4%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 13 yds to the ODU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.3%
Nathan Jeffery 1 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 2:1841% → 40%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
58.7%
Ray Lawry run for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
59.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+47
59.7%
Ray Lawry run for 47 yds to the UTEP 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
55.5%
Ray Lawry run for 4 yds to the UTEP 28Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
55.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
56.4%
Gerard Johnson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
60.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Ishmael HarrisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 4:1961% → 74%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.2%
Darrin Laufasa run for 7 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
62.1%
Nathan Jeffery run for 5 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
62.0%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+22
61.7%
Nathan Jeffery run for 22 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
63.1%
Josh Bell run for 6 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+12
63.3%
Nathan Jeffery run for 12 yds to the ODU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
63.3%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
74.1%
Josh Bell 21 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.9%
Gerard Johnson run for no gain to the ODU 25Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Ishmael HarrisonSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.3%
Taylor Heinicke run for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
73.3%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 54 yds , Damian Payne returns for no gain to the UTEP 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:0975% → 77%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
74.9%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+7
75.0%
Aaron Jones run for 7 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
75.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 5 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+9
75.1%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Josh Bell for 9 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
76.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Ian Hamilton for 18 yds to the ODU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
76.0%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Josh BellSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
76.0%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+3
75.2%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 3 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 7
OPP 36
-5
77.2%
UTEP Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ODU 41Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Jameill Showers punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.3%
Gerard Johnson run for 3 yds to the ODU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
78.0%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 9 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+20
78.2%
Aaron Jones run for 20 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
78.9%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Jarrad ShawSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
78.8%
Josh Bell run for 4 yds to the ODU 41Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+8
78.1%
Jameill Showers run for 8 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
78.9%
Aaron Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 11
OPP 34
-4
78.8%
JONES, Aaron rush right for 10 yards to the ODU24 (SIMON, D.J.), PENALTY UTEP holding (FORD, Katrae) 4 yards to the ODU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 15
OPP 38
-5
78.6%
UTEP Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the ODU 43Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+6
78.5%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Autrey Golden for 6 yds to the ODU 37Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+13
77.8%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 13 yds to the ODU 24Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
77.4%
Nathan Jeffery run for no gain to the ODU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 2:5919% → 37%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
80.8%
Antonio Vaughan run for 2 yds to the ODU 26Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
80.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Antonio VaughanSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+15
81.2%
Taylor Heinicke run for 15 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
79.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 18 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
78.5%
Ray Lawry run for 26 yds to the UTEP 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
77.1%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
77.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to David WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+9
78.2%
Taylor Heinicke run for 9 yds to the UTEP 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.3%
Ray Lawry 4 Yd Run (Ricky Segers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
86.5%
Josh Bell 37 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:3417% → 36%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
82.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 17 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
81.8%
HEINICKE, T. pass incomplete to PASCAL, Zach, PENALTY UTEP roughing passer (ROBERTSON, Roy) 15 yards to the UTEP48, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
80.4%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+21
80.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Nick England for 21 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
78.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
79.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+18
80.7%
Ray Lawry run for 18 yds to the UTEP 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
64.5%
Ray Lawry 7 Yd Run (Ricky Segers Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:5074% → 72%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
74.0%
Nathan Jeffery run for 1 yd to the UTEP 14Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+2
73.8%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+6
72.7%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Nathan Jeffery for 6 yds to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-21
71.5%
Mike Ruggles pass incomplete UTEP Penalty, intentional grounding (Mike Ruggles) to the UTEP 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 17TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.4%
David Washington 1 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Jarrett Cervi Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
54.4%
Jameill Showers run for 2 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
54.1%
Josh Bell run for no gain to the UTEP 24Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 8
OWN 24
-2
52.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & 10
OWN 22
-4
51.0%
Mike Ruggles punt for 45 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:2250% → 51%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
49.6%
Ray Lawry run for 6 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+18
47.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Nick England for 18 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
45.3%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
45.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to David Washington, broken up by Wesley MillerSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+2
46.9%
Ray Lawry run for 2 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
48.9%
Taylor Heinicke punt for 35 yds, downed at the UTEP 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20TD
16 plays · 91 yds · 9:4853% → 93%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
53.3%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Aaron Jones for 1 yd to the UTEP 10Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 9
OWN 10
-1
54.2%
Darrin Laufasa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 9Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+14
51.0%
Jameill Showers run for 14 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
55.0%
Aaron Jones run for 6 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+1
55.9%
Nathan Jeffery run for 1 yd to the UTEP 30Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+17
53.7%
Jameill Showers pass complete to Josh Bell for 17 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
59.7%
Nathan Jeffery run for 6 yds to the ODU 47Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
60.6%
Aaron Jones run for 3 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
59.7%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
60.6%
Darrin Laufasa run for 1 yd to the ODU 41Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+16
60.4%
Aaron Jones run for 16 yds to the ODU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
61.8%
Nathan Jeffery run for 5 yds to the ODU 20Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+12
61.8%
Aaron Jones run for 12 yds to the ODU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
61.8%
Josh Bell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 10Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
61.8%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Josh BellSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.6%
Autrey Golden 10 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 6 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
83.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Ray Lawry, broken up by Roy Robertson-HarrisSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-10
85.1%
HEINICKE, T. sideline pass complete to PASCAL, Zach for 15 yards to the ODU46 (PAYNE, Damian;MILLER, Wesley), PENALTY ODU holding (GARCIA, Darius) 10 yards to the ODU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+13
87.4%
Taylor Heinicke run for 13 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
85.1%
Ray Lawry run for no gain to the ODU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:1394% → 98%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
94.4%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
98.1%
Autrey Golden 32 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:533% → 14%
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
97.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 24 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
97.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Ray Lawry for 7 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+6
96.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 6 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
85.7%
Marques Little 38 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Jarrett Cervi Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:0496% → 96%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
96.2%
Nathan Jeffery run for 4 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
96.2%
Aaron Jones run for 2 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+1
96.7%
Josh Bell run for 1 yd to the ODU 35Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
95.9%
Jameill Showers pass incomplete to Eric TomlinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:44
Autrey Golden 10 Yd pass from Jameill Showers (Jay Mattox Kick)
+30.8
TD · Q3 2:53
David Washington 1 Yd pass from Taylor Heinicke (Jarrett Cervi Kick)
-28.1
TD · Q3 6:31
Josh Bell 37 Yd Run (Jay Mattox Kick)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com