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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 41 at Old Dominion 28

ODU
2014 · Week 5 · Sep 26, 2014 · S.B. Ballard Stadium
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Win probability · ODU
modelODU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playODU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of GameFG-7.6ODU 6.4%Cody Clark 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 41 - HOME 28 · Q4 5:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:18 · Cody Clark 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense−36.9Score differential−17.7Garbage-time factor−10.0Pregame prior+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:52: CLARK, Cody kickoff 59 yards to the ODU6, ENGLAND, Nick return to the ODU16 (SANDERS, DJ), PENALTY MT offside defense (ROWLAND, Tony) 5 yards to the MT30, NO PLAY. — MTSU win probability +9.5 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:01: Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK) — ODU win probability +9.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:55: Austin Grammer run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +16.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:48: Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 53 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK) — MTSU win probability +16.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:50: Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Marques Little for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK) — ODU win probability +12.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:48MTSU 4th & 19 at ODU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    45.7%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:19ODU 4th & 15 at ODU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:30MTSU 4th & 6 at ODU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:52ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:17ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:53MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 34, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:48ODU 4th & 18 at ODU 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 34, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−1.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:47ODU 4th & 24 at ODU 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−4.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:18MTSU 4th & 7 at ODU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    81.0%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:24MTSU 4th & 1 at ODU 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.6%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ODU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 7:01MTSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:37ODU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:01ODU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:55MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:08ODU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:48MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:50ODU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
54.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass intercepted T.T. Barber return for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
54.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 8 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
54.2%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-5
54.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+14
54.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 14 yds to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
54.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for a loss of 3 yards to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 14:48
2ND & 13
OPP 34
0
54.2%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:48
3RD & 13
OPP 34
-6
54.3%
Austin Grammer sacked by Bunmi Rotimi for a loss of 6 yards to the ODU 40Similar
Q1 14:48
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
54.3%
Zachary Lopez punt for 35 yds, downed at the ODU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 95 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
54.6%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the ODU 6Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+23
54.6%
Taylor Heinicke run for 8 yds to the ODU 14 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (N/A) to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
54.7%
Antonio Vaughan run for 3 yds to the ODU 32Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+54
54.7%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 54 yds David Washington fumbled, forced by Kevin Byard, recovered by MTnSt Jared SingletarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FUMBLE
14 plays · 64 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
54.6%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
54.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 7 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
54.6%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
54.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
54.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 5 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+3
54.3%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
54.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
50
+4
54.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 4 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
54.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
54.1%
Shane Tucker run for 9 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+10
54.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 10 yds to the ODU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
54.0%
Shane Tucker run for 5 yds to the ODU 19Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+4
54.0%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 4 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
54.1%
Jeremiah Bryson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 16 Jeremiah Bryson fumbled, forced by TJ Ricks, recovered by ODU Rashaad CowardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
55.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Gerard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+13
54.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 13 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
55.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Nick EnglandSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
55.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 10
OWN 29
-5
54.5%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Leighton Gasque for a loss of 5 yards to the ODU 24Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
54.2%
Taylor Heinicke punt for 48 yds, downed at the MTnSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG
13 plays · 66 yds · 5:3945% → 48%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
54.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 16 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
54.0%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the ODU 49Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
53.6%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
53.7%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
53.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 5 yds Jordan Parker fumbled, forced by Fellonte Misher, recovered by MTnSt N/ASimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+9
53.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 9 yds to the ODU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
53.5%
Reggie Whatley run for 9 yds to the ODU 25Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
53.3%
Reggie Whatley run for 6 yds to the ODU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
53.3%
Reggie Whatley run for 12 yds to the ODU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
53.3%
Reggie Whatley run for 1 yd to the ODU 6Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
52.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Devin Clarke for 2 yds to the ODU 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
53.1%
Shane Tucker run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 6Similar
Q2 13:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
52.2%
Cody Clark 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3353% → 44%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
53.1%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the ODU 22Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-2
53.0%
Taylor Heinicke run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 21 Taylor Heinicke fumbled, recovered by ODU N/ASimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
52.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 10
OWN 21
+76
43.7%
Taylor Heinicke punt for 55 yds , Kevin Byard returns for 76 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 11:52
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
34.2%
CLARK, Cody kickoff 59 yards to the ODU6, ENGLAND, Nick return to the ODU16 (SANDERS, DJ), PENALTY MT offside defense (ROWLAND, Tony) 5 yards to the MT30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
37.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass intercepted Shon Akins return for no gain to the ODU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:1267% → 67%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
32.9%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Devin ClarkeSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+27
32.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shane Tucker for 27 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.6%
Gerard Johnson run for no gain to the ODU 20Similar
Q2 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
36.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to David Washington, broken up by Jared SingletarySimilar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
36.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q2 11:17
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+4
36.3%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 37 yds , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:2368% → 72%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
31.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Shannon Smith for 11 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
31.8%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the ODU 40Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+8
31.8%
Austin Grammer run for 8 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
31.7%
Austin Grammer run for 15 yds to the ODU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
31.7%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the ODU 11Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
31.7%
Jordan Parker run for 6 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
31.7%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the ODU 2Similar
Q2 10:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
31.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the ODU 7Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.9%
Austin Grammer run for 7 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 4:1827% → 32%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
27.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for no gain to the ODU 26Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
27.1%
Taylor Heinicke run for 11 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-8
27.9%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Shubert Bastien and Alexandro Antoine for a loss of 8 yards to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 18
OWN 29
+16
27.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 16 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-15
28.7%
HEINICKE, T. pass complete to PASCAL, Zach for 23 yards to the MT32, out-of-bounds (SHARPE, Chris), PENALTY ODU pass interference (PASCAL, Zach) 15 yards to the ODU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+24
26.9%
Taylor Heinicke run for 24 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
29.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Ray Lawry for 4 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
29.3%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, offside defense (N/A) to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+13
29.5%
Taylor Heinicke run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
29.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Vincent Lowe for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+27
32.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 27 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0073% → 74%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
26.6%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+2
26.1%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+8
26.5%
Jordan Parker run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
26.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
26.1%
Reggie Whatley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
24.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
24.0%
Jordan Parker run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
24.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Jordan Parker for 5 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
24.9%
Zachary Lopez punt for 40 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for 2 yds to the ODU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
23.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 7 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 35
0
24.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-15
24.3%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Cavellis Luckett for a loss of 15 yards to the ODU 20Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 18
OWN 20
0
23.2%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ed'Marques Batties at the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 46 yds · 0:0080% → 81%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
19.8%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 11 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
19.7%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Ed'Marques Batties for 3 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+4
19.7%
Austin Grammer run for 4 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+4
19.5%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the ODU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
19.5%
Austin Grammer run for 8 yds to the ODU 22Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+4
19.2%
Shane Tucker run for 4 yds to the ODU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
19.2%
Austin Grammer run for 9 yds to the ODU 9 OLDDOMINION Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
19.2%
Shane Tucker run for 2 yds to the ODU 6 Shane Tucker fumbled, forced by D.J. Simon, recovered by ODU Anthony WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 4:4122% → 35%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
22.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+25
22.0%
Taylor Heinicke run for 10 yds to the ODU 16 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Shubert Bastien) to the ODU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
23.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 10 yds to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
24.3%
Gerard Johnson run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
25.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 12 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
25.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 13 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
35.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 1:5870% → 87%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
30.1%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+18
29.5%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 18 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
29.3%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Demetrius Frazier for 10 yds to the ODU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
28.9%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the ODU 28Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
28.8%
Austin Grammer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+18
29.6%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Terry Pettis for 18 yds to the ODU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
13.3%
Austin Grammer run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 3:4217% → 28%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+22
16.7%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 22 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
18.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Ray Lawry for 9 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+10
19.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 10 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
19.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Antonio VaughanSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-6
18.9%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Shubert Bastien for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 16
OPP 45
+18
17.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 18 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
20.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 15 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
20.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 7 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
20.1%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
28.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0175% → 73%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
25.2%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
24.9%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Christian Collis for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
23.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Isaiah Anderson) to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
25.2%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Devin Clarke MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
26.6%
Zachary Lopez punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Antonio Vaughan at the ODU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
24.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 1 yd to the ODU 30Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 9
OWN 30
-11
24.4%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Shubert Bastien for a loss of 11 yards to the ODU 19Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 20
OWN 19
-4
22.5%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Leighton Gasque for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 24
OWN 15
+5
21.5%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 39 , Ed'Marques Batties returns for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:1278% → 94%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
22.2%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Chase Pennycuff for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
21.8%
Jordan Parker run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
21.7%
Austin Grammer run for 4 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-15
21.7%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Terry Pettis) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 21
OWN 39
+8
23.4%
Austin Grammer run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+53
6.4%
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 53 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:527% → 21%
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
6.6%
Gerard Johnson run for 5 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
6.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Antonio Vaughan, broken up by Shon AkinsSimilar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+15
6.7%
HEINICKE, T. pass incomplete to PASCAL, Zach, PENALTY MT pass interference (HOWARD, J.) 15 yards to the ODU46, 1ST DOWN ODU, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
7.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for no gain to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
7.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Nick England for 12 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
7.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 19 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+19
8.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 19 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Marques Little for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:3186% → 94%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
14.0%
Jordan Parker run for 4 yds to the ODU 45Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+7
14.1%
Jordan Parker run for 7 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+23
14.0%
Jordan Parker run for 23 yds to the ODU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
13.6%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the ODU 12Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
13.6%
Austin Grammer run for no gain to the ODU 12Similar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
14.0%
Austin Grammer pass incomplete to Shannon SmithSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
6.4%
Cody Clark 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 26INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 1 yd to the ODU 26Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
8.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 12 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
9.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 8 yds to the ODU 46Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+14
10.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 14 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
11.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
10.7%
Taylor Heinicke pass intercepted Kevin Byard return for no gain to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27END OF GAME
11 plays · 51 yds · 2:2195% → 98%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+25
5.3%
Jordan Parker run for 25 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.9%
Jordan Parker run for no gain to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+14
3.4%
Jordan Parker run for 14 yds to the ODU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
3.2%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the ODU 38Similar
Q4 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
3.1%
Jordan Parker run for 1 yd to the ODU 37Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+3
2.3%
Jordan Parker run for 3 yds to the ODU 34Similar
Q4 1:24
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+5
2.4%
Jordan Parker run for 5 yds to the ODU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
2.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ODU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:48
Austin Grammer pass complete to Marcus Henry for 53 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q3 4:55
Austin Grammer run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cody Clark KICK)
-16.4
TD · Q4 8:50
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Marques Little for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com