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ODU

Old Dominion 45 at Rice 42

RICE
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadODU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreODU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:11 · Jowan Davis run for 9 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense−19.5Score differential−10.0Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:02: Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 18 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK) — ODU win probability +17.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:59: Darik Dillard run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK) — RICE win probability +20.0 pts (now 45%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:20: Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK) — ODU win probability +17.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:05: Darik Dillard run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK) — RICE win probability +36.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Ricky Segers 25 yd FG GOOD — ODU win probability +34.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ODU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:10RICE 4th & 28 at RICE 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:02ODU 4th & 4 at RICE 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    30.0%−0.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:20ODU 4th & 14 at ODU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:19RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:50ODU 4th & 8 at RICE 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−0.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    32.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:49RICE 4th & 4 at ODU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.0%−0.6
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.9%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:21ODU 4th & 3 at RICE 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−2.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:41ODU 4th & 16 at ODU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−3.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:11RICE 4th & 3 at ODU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−2.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:47ODU 4th & 10 at ODU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−2.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:30RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.5%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ODU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:27ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:11RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:10ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:20RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:50ODU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:22ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:02ODU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:41RICE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:59RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 12:20ODU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:47RICE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−1.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:05RICE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−4.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ODUDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3327% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 12 yds to the ODU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
72.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 7 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+1
72.9%
Gerard Johnson run for 1 yd to the ODU 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+11
72.9%
Gerard Johnson run for 11 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
72.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 32 yds to the Rice 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
72.9%
Gerard Johnson run for 7 yds to the Rice 5Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+5
71.4%
Taylor Heinicke run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1672% → 72%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
71.7%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+33
71.7%
Luke Turner run for 33 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
71.9%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis Parks, broken up by Fellonte MisherSimilar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
71.9%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 2 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+31
72.4%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 31 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0128% → 33%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.9%
Gerard Johnson run for 10 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
71.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 16 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
71.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 5 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+5
71.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 5 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
71.5%
Antonio Vaughan run for 1 yd to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
71.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Melvin VaughnSimilar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+5
71.6%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (N/A) to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+11
70.3%
Ray Lawry run for 11 yds to the Rice 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
67.4%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 22 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
68.4%
Jowan Davis run for 13 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
68.5%
Luke Turner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 32Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
68.4%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Luke TurnerSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 11
OWN 32
0
68.1%
Tyler Stehling run for a loss of 17 yards to the Rice 15 Tyler Stehling fumbled, recovered by Rice Tyler Stehling , return for no gain to the Rice 15Similar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 28
OWN 15
0
67.9%
James Farrimond punt for 36 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for no gain to the ODU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
66.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 6 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 4
OPP 45
0
66.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Gerard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
66.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to David Washington, broken up by Connor JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:02
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
66.6%
Taylor Heinicke punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:5567% → 71%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
66.5%
Darik Dillard run for 14 yds to the Rice 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
66.7%
Darik Dillard run for 8 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+8
67.4%
Connor Cella run for 8 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
67.5%
Darik Dillard run for 1 yd to the Rice 45Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+9
67.4%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Mario Hull for 9 yds to the ODU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
67.9%
Jowan Davis run for 7 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 39
-4
67.9%
Darik Dillard run for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 43Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+22
67.6%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 22 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
68.3%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Dennis ParksSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+16
68.3%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 16 yds to the ODU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
65.9%
Luke Turner run for 4 yds to the ODU 1Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.4%
Luke Turner run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Melvin VaughnSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
68.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the ODU 21Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
69.2%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Melvin Vaughn, broken up by Bryce CallahanSimilar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
69.6%
Taylor Heinicke punt for 63 yds, downed at the Rice 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0069% → 70%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
69.2%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Jowan Davis for 5 yds to the Rice 21Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
69.3%
Jowan Davis run for 3 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+6
68.8%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Jowan Davis for 6 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
69.4%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
69.2%
Jowan Davis run for 11 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
70.3%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 13:19
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
70.5%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+5
69.5%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Darik Dillard for 5 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q2 13:19
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
69.5%
James Farrimond punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Antonio Vaughan at the ODU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 3:0233% → 45%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
67.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 8 yds to the ODU 14Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 14
-1
67.0%
Gerard Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the ODU 13Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+40
67.7%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to David Washington for 40 yds to the Rice 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
64.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Antonio VaughanSimilar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
65.1%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the ODU 43Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+18
66.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 18 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-6
64.8%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Dylan Klare for a loss of 6 yards to the Rice 45Similar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 8
OPP 45
+45
55.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 45 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:0156% → 54%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.4%
Jowan Davis run for 4 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
56.7%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+9
56.9%
Darik Dillard run for 9 yds to the Rice 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
58.3%
Tyler Stehling run for 6 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+7
58.9%
Tyler Stehling run for 7 yds to the ODU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
59.4%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
59.4%
Tyler Stehling run for no gain to the ODU 39Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
59.0%
Tyler Stehling pass complete to Zach Wright for 4 yds to the ODU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
60.3%
Brandon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the ODU 31Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+2
60.3%
Brandon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the ODU 29Similar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
56.0%
Tyler Stehling pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+46
54.1%
James Hairston 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 1:2749% → 65%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
50.7%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 6 yds to the ODU 35Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+7
50.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 7 yds to the ODU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
48.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 10 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
48.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Vincent Lowe for 2 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+17
48.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for 27 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST down OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive holding (Zach Pascal) to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-15
47.5%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Zach Pascal) to the Rice 44Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 25
OPP 44
+44
35.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Nick England for 44 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
40.6%
RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (N/A) to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-2
39.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
38.7%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
39.7%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
38.7%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Luke Turner, broken up by Richie StatonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+28
38.2%
James Farrimond punt for 45 yds , Antonio Vaughan returns for 28 yds to the Rice 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:1967% → 85%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
33.0%
Gerard Johnson run for no gain to the Rice 47Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+7
33.0%
Taylor Heinicke run for 7 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
33.3%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+4
35.3%
Gerard Johnson run for 4 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+18
33.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Melvin Vaughn for 18 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
32.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Gerard Johnson for no gain to the Rice 18Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
14.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 18 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2122% → 34%
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
22.0%
Jowan Davis run for 12 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.7%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
22.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 12 yds to the Rice 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
24.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Temi Alaka for 31 yds to the ODU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
25.2%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the ODU 18Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
34.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Luke Turner for 18 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
27.1%
Taylor Heinicke sacked by Connor Johnson for a loss of 9 yards to the ODU 16Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
27.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to David Washington, broken up by Jaylon FinnerSimilar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+3
28.1%
Taylor Heinicke run for 3 yds to the ODU 19Similar
Q3 8:41
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
28.7%
Jarrett Cervi punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Bryce Callahan at the Rice 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17TD
15 plays · 65 yds · 6:0928% → 45%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
28.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 1 yd to the Rice 36 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Connor Cella) to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 19
OWN 26
+3
27.3%
Driphus Jackson run for 3 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+14
27.0%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 14 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+8
29.7%
Jowan Davis run for 8 yds to the ODU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
25.4%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis Parks, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
25.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Darik Dillard for 5 yds to the ODU 44Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+2
25.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Luke Turner for 2 yds to the ODU 42Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+9
23.4%
Jowan Davis run for 9 yds to the ODU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
24.7%
Jowan Davis run for 13 yds to the ODU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
24.9%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the ODU 19Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
24.9%
Darik Dillard run for 10 yds to the ODU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
24.9%
Darik Dillard run for 5 yds to the ODU 4Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.9%
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3966% → 90%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
33.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 8 yds to the ODU 33Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
32.2%
Gerard Johnson run for 5 yds to the ODU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Ryan PollardSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+35
30.2%
Taylor Heinicke run for 35 yds to the Rice 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
27.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Nick EnglandSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
27.9%
Vincent Lowe run for 2 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+14
28.8%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Nick England for 14 yds to the Rice 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
27.5%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to David WashingtonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
27.5%
Gerard Johnson run for 7 yds to the Rice 4Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
9.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Segers KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3316% → 34%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
15.6%
Jowan Davis run for 5 yds to the Rice 30 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (Luke Turner) to the Rice 20Similar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
15.5%
Jowan Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 18Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+9
15.3%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 9 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
15.3%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Defensive offside (Scott Wiggins) to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
16.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 6 yds to the Rice 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
16.7%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Zach WrightSimilar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
16.2%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Mario Hull for 6 yds to the Rice 44Similar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+28
16.8%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 28 yds to the ODU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
18.7%
Jowan Davis run for 7 yds to the ODU 21Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+4
18.7%
Driphus Jackson run for 4 yds to the ODU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
18.7%
OLDDOMINION Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Eriq Lewis) to the ODU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.0%
Darik Dillard run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
21.1%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Antonio Vaughan for 15 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
18.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
19.1%
Taylor Heinicke run for no gain to the ODU 40Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
19.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Melvin VaughnSimilar
Q4 7:47
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
22.4%
Taylor Heinicke punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rice 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21TD
16 plays · 80 yds · 5:2524% → 65%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
23.5%
Driphus Jackson run for 7 yds to the Rice 27Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
24.3%
Jowan Davis run for 6 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
24.3%
Jowan Davis run for 2 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+8
24.1%
Jowan Davis run for 8 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
27.0%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Dennis Parks, broken up by Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
25.7%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Zach Wright for 6 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
27.7%
Darik Dillard run for no gain to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 4
OWN 49
+11
25.5%
Jowan Davis run for 11 yds to the ODU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
29.5%
Driphus Jackson pass incomplete to Mario HullSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
29.1%
Driphus Jackson pass complete to Dennis Parks for 4 yds to the ODU 36Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+15
29.1%
Jowan Davis run for 15 yds to the ODU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
31.8%
Jowan Davis run for 1 yd to the ODU 20Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
31.8%
Driphus Jackson run for 5 yds to the ODU 15Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+8
29.8%
Darik Dillard run for 8 yds to the ODU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
65.4%
Darik Dillard run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ODUDrive 22FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 1:0551% → 96%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
48.6%
Taylor Heinicke run for 1 yd to the ODU 26 for a 1ST down RICE Penalty, personal foul (Grant Peterson) to the ODU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
43.6%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach Pascal, broken up by Brian NordstromSimilar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+45
45.0%
Taylor Heinicke pass complete to Zach Pascal for 45 yds to the Rice 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
36.9%
Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete to Zach PascalSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
36.7%
Gerard Johnson run for 6 yds to the Rice 8Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+25
4.3%
Ricky Segers 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:05
Darik Dillard run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)
+36.2
FG · Q4 0:00
Ricky Segers 25 yd FG GOOD
-34.4
TD · Q3 0:59
Darik Dillard run for 4 yds for a TD, (James Hairston KICK)
+20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com