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GASO

Georgia Southern 23 at NC State 24

NCSU
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Carter-Finley Stadium
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Win probability · NCSU
modelNCSU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playNCSU scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-3.4NCSU 81.4%Alex Hanks 32 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 8:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:35 · Alex Hanks 32 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+32.7Home team on offense−5.2Garbage-time factor−1.4Score differential−1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 29 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK) — GASO win probability +18.7 pts (now 43%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:02: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 6 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +15.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:55: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 11 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 3:35: Alex Hanks 31 yd FG GOOD — GASO win probability +12.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:37: Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 35 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK) — NCSU win probability +47.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NCSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:52NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52NCSU 4th & 4 at GASO 24, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.3%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:44GASO 4th & 4 at NCSU 38, up 4
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at NCSU 10, down 4
    Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:21GASO 4th & 12 at GASO 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:35GASO 4th & 10 at NCSU 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:45NCSU 4th & 3 at GASO 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00NCSU 4th & 25 at NCSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−3.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:54GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 30, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:23GASO 4th & 2 at NCSU 2, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−2.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−12.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00NCSU 4th & 1 at GASO 9, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−3.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−14.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:35GASO 4th & 2 at NCSU 14, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.9%−3.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−26.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:37GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.9%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NCSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GASO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:07GASO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:34GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:02NCSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:55NCSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:37NCSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−7.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
93.6%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the GeoSo 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+3
93.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+12
93.6%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 60 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 12 yds to the NCSt 29 Bra'Lon Cherry fumbled, recovered by NCSt N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
93.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
93.1%
Tony Creecy run for 5 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+4
93.1%
Jacoby Brissett run for 4 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
93.1%
Wil Baumann punt for 44 yds , Brandan Thomas returns for no gain to the GeoSo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:087% → 9%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
92.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 22Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+6
92.7%
L.A. Ramsby run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
92.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 8 yds to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
92.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
92.6%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
91.3%
Matt Breida run for 61 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:1591% → 90%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
91.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 10 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
91.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 11 yds to the NCSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
91.6%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (Matt Dayes) to the NCSt 41Similar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+4
91.5%
Matt Dayes run for 4 yds to the NCSt 45Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+10
91.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Tyler Purvis for 10 yds to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
91.7%
Tony Creecy run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
91.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 9 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+4
91.7%
Matt Dayes run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
91.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
91.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
91.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
90.3%
Niklas Sade 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 56 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
90.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
90.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+14
90.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
90.1%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson for 8 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+14
90.0%
Kevin Ellison run for 14 yds to the NCSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
89.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
89.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCSt 40Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
89.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38Similar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
90.1%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 37 yds, downed at the NCSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
88.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
88.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the NCSt 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
87.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 2 yds to the NCSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
87.7%
Wil Baumann punt for 55 yds , Brandan Thomas returns for no gain to the GeoSo 33 Brandan Thomas fumbled, recovered by GeoSo Brandan Thomas , return for no gain to the GeoSo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.1%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Zach WalkerSimilar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
87.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 9
OWN 34
-3
87.4%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 12
OWN 31
+18
87.8%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 56 yds , Bra'Lon Cherry returns for 18 yds to the NCSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
86.7%
Tony Creecy run for 1 yd to the NCSt 32Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
86.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 5 yds to the NCSt 37Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+28
87.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass intercepted Caleb Williams return for 28 yds to the NCSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:5716% → 19%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
84.5%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the NCSt 14Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+2
84.5%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-3
84.7%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 15Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
81.4%
Alex Hanks 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 2:5082% → 79%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
81.8%
Shadrach Thornton run for 13 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
82.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Stephen Louis for 9 yds to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
83.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for no gain to the NCSt 47Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+11
83.0%
Tony Creecy run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
80.9%
Shadrach Thornton run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 38Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
80.9%
Bra'Lon Cherry run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
80.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bo Hines, broken up by Antonio GloverSimilar
Q2 5:45
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+52
78.6%
Niklas Sade 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:1123% → 43%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
77.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 36Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
77.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
77.4%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 10 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
76.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+5
76.1%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
76.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 5 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
76.0%
NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Kentavius Street) to the NCSt 34Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 5
OPP 34
-1
75.6%
Devin Scott run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 35Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+7
75.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 7 yds to the NCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
75.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NCSt 27Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-2
75.8%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 29Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+29
57.1%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 29 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 12MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:3460% → 63%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.2%
Shadrach Thornton run for 1 yd to the NCSt 26Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
60.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 15 yds to the NCSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
62.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Johnathan Alston for 7 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+15
62.7%
Jacoby Brissett run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
62.5%
Niklas Sade 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.5%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
59.7%
Matt Dayes run for 13 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
61.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
-12
62.1%
Jacoby Brissett sacked by Jonathan Battle for a loss of 12 yards to the NCSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 38
-5
60.0%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (N/A) to the NCSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 27
OWN 33
+2
59.4%
Matt Dayes run for 2 yds to the NCSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 35
0
58.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 35
+14
58.8%
Wil Baumann punt for 50 yds , Brandan Thomas returns for 14 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
51.0%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-5
51.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (N/A) to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 13
OWN 26
0
51.5%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+4
52.3%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson for 4 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
52.7%
Ryan Nowicki punt for 50 yds, downed at the NCSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:3647% → 67%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
47.0%
Matt Dayes run for 9 yds to the NCSt 29Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
48.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+8
48.0%
Jaylen Samuels run for 8 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+42
48.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Jaylen Samuels for 42 yds to the GeoSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
52.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Nick Wright) to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
67.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 6 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 4:3241% → 56%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
59.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 8 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
57.4%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+51
57.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Zach Walker for 51 yds to the NCSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
54.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
54.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+8
55.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
54.9%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NCSt 3Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
54.9%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q3 7:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
55.8%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the NCSt 2Similar
Q3 3:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
44.3%
Alex Hanks 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:2344% → 39%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
44.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Darius Jones) to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
46.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 6 yds to the NCSt 46Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
47.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 3 yds to the NCSt 49Similar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
46.7%
Tony Creecy run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
48.1%
Shadrach Thornton run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+19
48.2%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 19 yds to the GeoSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
50.0%
NC STATE Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
50.0%
Jacoby Brissett run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 1
OPP 9
0
50.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-ScantlingSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
48.0%
Tony Creecy run for no gain to the GeoSo 9Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 9
0
39.4%
Shadrach Thornton run for no gain to the GeoSo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18FUMBLE
9 plays · 90 yds · 0:0061% → 67%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
39.3%
Matt Breida run for 11 yds to the GeoSo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
38.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+37
38.9%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 37 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
35.2%
Kevin Ellison run for 10 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
34.3%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCSt 34 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by GeoSo L.A. RamsbySimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 12
OPP 34
0
34.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 12
OPP 34
+30
35.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 30 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
34.1%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the NCSt 1Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 0
OPP 1
0
33.0%
Kevin Ellison run for no gain to the NCSt 1 Kevin Ellison fumbled, recovered by NCSt Monty NelsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:0828% → 55%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
28.0%
Tony Creecy run for 4 yds to the NCSt 5Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+1
27.8%
Tony Creecy run for 1 yd to the NCSt 6Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+6
26.5%
Jacoby Brissett run for 6 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+27
28.0%
Shadrach Thornton run for 27 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
30.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Bra'Lon CherrySimilar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
29.6%
Shadrach Thornton run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+12
29.6%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 12 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
32.8%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 9 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
35.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 6 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
35.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 12 yds to the GeoSo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
35.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 6 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+11
54.5%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 11 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 20FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:2062% → 83%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+52
38.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 52 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
32.2%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 23Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+1
32.8%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the NCSt 22Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+8
34.9%
Favian Upshaw run for 8 yds to the NCSt 14Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
16.7%
Alex Hanks 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 21TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 1:5829% → 84%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to David Grinnage for 9 yds to the NCSt 34Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
32.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 5 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
31.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 9 yds to the NCSt 48Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+7
35.1%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 7 yds to the GeoSo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
36.0%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
36.0%
Jacoby Brissett pass incomplete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, broken up by Nick WrightSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
34.3%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 4 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+6
35.4%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 6 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
38.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bo Hines for 5 yds to the GeoSo 30Similar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
36.2%
NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 35Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
83.7%
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 35 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.8%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
69.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson, broken up by Juston BurrisSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
71.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
72.6%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson, broken up by Jarvis ByrdSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCSUDrive 23END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0285% → 82%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
85.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-2
85.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-1
81.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:37
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Matt Dayes for 35 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
+47.5
TD · Q4 6:55
Jacoby Brissett pass complete to Bra'Lon Cherry for 11 yds for a TD, (Niklas Sade KICK)
+19
TD · Q2 0:34
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Kentrellis Showers for 29 yds for a TD, (Alex Hanks KICK)
-18.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com