2014 · Week 13 · Nov 22, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadGAST aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreGAST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:52 · Bradley Pinion punt for 44 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:03: Tyshon Dye 6 Yd Run (Ammon Lakip Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:08: Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 17 — GAST win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: GAST has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:36: Wayne Gallman 9 Yd Run (Ammon Lakip Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:21: Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Germone Hopper — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 8GAST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
- Q1 14:55GAST 4th & 17 at GAST 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 11:52CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 37, tiedClose callPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 9:53GAST 4th & 5 at GAST 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 8:27GAST 4th & 7 at GAST 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q2 15:00GAST 4th & 14 at GAST 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it2.0%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 13:14CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 48, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snapGo for it97.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q2 9:08GAST 4th & 12 at GAST 17, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 37, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 13:07GAST 4th & 2 at GAST 34, down 28Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:32CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 43, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 1:11GAST 4th & 3 at CLEM 48, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:09CLEM 4th & 7 at GAST 32, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.137% to convertField goal99.9%51% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:01GAST 4th & 10 at GAST 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:38CLEM 4th & 11 at GAST 22, up 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%72% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 8:38GAST 4th & 3 at GAST 29, down 28Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 7:12CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 38, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 5:38GAST 4th & 11 at GAST 31, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:35CLEM 4th & 8 at GAST 11, up 28Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.129% to convertField goal99.9%87% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 6:05CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:03CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:36CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGASTDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+11
99.0%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 11 yds to the GeoSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
GASTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:53
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
98.5%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Todd Boyd for 5 yds to the GeoSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4INT2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
GASTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD5 plays · 30 yds · 1:3098% → 98%
GASTDrive 7INT9 plays · 41 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
98.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Robert Davis for 18 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+5
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
98.3%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 9 yds to the GeoSt 41Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+52
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted for a 1ST down Korrin Wiggins return for 37 yds to the GeoSt 0 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the GeoSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD4 plays · 26 yds · 1:3298% → 98%
GASTDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass incomplete to Robert Davis, broken up by Garry PetersSimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 4 yds to the GeoSt 29Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
98.2%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Lynquez Blair for 7 yds to the GeoSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-5
98.1%
GEORGIA ST Penalty, illegal participation (-5 Yards) to the GeoSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-5
98.2%
Wil Lutz punt for 40 yds , Adam Humphries returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 27 CLEMSON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Clem 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 13:14
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+3
98.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds to the Clem 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+18
98.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 18 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
98.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 43Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 4
50
-2
98.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 48Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Bradley Pinion punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Donovan Harden at the GeoSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 11PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
GASTDrive 12INT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:003% → 2%
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
97.5%
Arbuckle, Nick pass complete to Davis, Robert for loss of 4 yards to the GSU47 (PETERS;STEWARD), PENALTY GSU illegal block 10 yards to the GSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+6
97.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Joel Ruiz for 6 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+27
97.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Jayron Kearse return for 17 yds to the CLEMSON 36 CLEMSON Penalty, illegal block (Grady Jarrett) to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1298% → 99%
Q2 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+18
97.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 18 yds to the GeoSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 14INT10 plays · 26 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q2 4:28
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+21
98.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 21 yds to the GeoSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Gerald Howse for 5 yds to the GeoSt 48Similar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
98.4%
Arbuckle, Nick pass incomplete, PENALTY CU pass interference off-setting, PENALTY GSU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 13
50
+12
98.6%
Nick Arbuckle pass intercepted Garry Peters return for 12 yds to the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD9 plays · 53 yds · 1:4799% → 100%
Q2 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the GeoSt 49Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+17
99.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 17 yds to the GeoSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
99.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the GeoSt 26Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
99.7%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+4
99.7%
Bradley Pinion punt for 52 yds , Donovan Harden returns for 4 yds to the GeoSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+5
99.7%
Nick Arbuckle pass complete to Donovan Harden for 5 yds to the GeoSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
99.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 7 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 9 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
99.8%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Bradley Pinion punt for 36 yds , Donovan Harden returns for no gain to the GeoSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 20DOWNS11 plays · 25 yds · 5:190% → 0%
CLEMDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 7 yds · 1:56100% → 100%
GASTDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23MISSED FG9 plays · 50 yds · 3:42100% → 100%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.9%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Daniel Rodriguez for 9 yds to the GeoSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:38
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+26
100.0%
Wil Lutz punt for 42 yds , Daniel Rodriguez returns for 26 yds to the GeoSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27DOWNS9 plays · 38 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
GASTDrive 28END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:36
Wayne Gallman 9 Yd Run (Ammon Lakip Kick)
+1.3
TD · Q2 0:34
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 8 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+0.7
KEY PLAY · Q2 9:08
Marcus Caffey run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSt 17
-0.5