2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSCST aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSCST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:51 · Ammon Lakip 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:35: Adam Humphries run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — SCST win probability +0.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q1 6:51: Ammon Lakip 22 yd FG GOOD — SCST win probability +0.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:54: Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 7 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:17: Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 37 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 7:10: Ammon Lakip 38 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +0.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SCST made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 11:46SCST 4th & 26 at SCST 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q1 10:58CLEM 4th & 2 at SCST 36, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.7%57% to convertField goal95.6%−0.142% to makePunt95.5%−0.2average punt
- Q1 6:51CLEM 4th & 5 at SCST 5, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.1%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call95.1%92% to makePunt94.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:46SCST 4th & 25 at SCST 1, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.6%−0.35% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q1 4:59CLEM 4th & 5 at SCST 35, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.0%42% to convertField goal94.9%−0.145% to makePunt94.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 3:06SCST 4th & 9 at SCST 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q2 14:54SCST 4th & 10 at SCST 25, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.3%average punt
- Q2 11:11SCST 4th & 3 at SCST 25, down 24Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.8%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:10CLEM 4th & 4 at SCST 21, up 24Close callKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call97.4%−0.174% to makePunt96.5%−1.0average punt
- Q2 7:03SCST 4th & 5 at SCST 33, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 3:39SCST 4th & 20 at CLEM 44, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.110% to convertField goal0.6%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00SCST 4th & 11 at SCST 25, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 11:27SCST 4th & 13 at SCST 32, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 7:50CLEM 4th & 7 at SCST 7, up 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%91% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 7:45SCST 4th & 11 at SCST 30, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 2:26SCST 4th & 19 at SCST 16, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:30SCST 4th & 10 at SCST 47, down 73Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:35CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.9%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:17CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:46CLEM Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:30CLEM Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:31CLEM Touchdown, up 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:26CLEM Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:34CLEM Touchdown, up 64 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD8 plays · 68 yds · 2:2597% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
97.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for 14 yds to the SCSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+34
97.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 34 yds to the SCSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
97.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -16 yds · 0:493% → 3%
CLEMDrive 3FG11 plays · 39 yds · 4:0797% → 97%
Q1 10:58
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
97.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Germone Hopper for no gain to the SCSt 43Similar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+7
97.0%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to D.J. Howard for 7 yds to the SCSt 36Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
97.1%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jay Jay McCullough for 7 yds to the SCSt 24Similar
Q1 10:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
97.1%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Mike Williams, broken up by Marquise JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -15 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 6:46
2ND & 13
OWN 13
-3
96.6%
Adri Kollock Jr pass complete to Taquan West for 7 yds to the SCSt 20 S CAROLINA ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the SCSt 10Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 16
OWN 10
0
96.6%
Adri Kollock Jr pass incomplete to Jalen Simmons, broken up by Josh WatsonSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 16
OWN 10
-9
96.7%
Adri Kollock Jr sacked by Vic Beasley for a loss of 9 yards to the SCSt 1Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 25
OWN 1
+2
96.8%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 41 yds , Adam Humphries returns for 2 yds to the SCSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
SCSTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:064% → 4%
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
96.3%
Adri Kollock Jr pass complete to Mykal Moody for 1 yd to the SCSt 36Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
96.5%
Adri Kollock Jr pass incomplete to Taquan West, broken up by Jayron KearseSimilar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
96.5%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5796% → 97%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
96.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+39
96.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 39 yds to the SCSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
97.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 7 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 14:54
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adam Humphries at the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD7 plays · 64 yds · 2:2797% → 98%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Charone Peake, broken up by Devondre PowellSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 4 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+8
97.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Choice for 8 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.4%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 5 yds to the SCSt 47Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+7
97.3%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Choice for 7 yds to the SCSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
98.2%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 37 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
CLEMDrive 11FG6 plays · 31 yds · 2:0898% → 99%
SCSTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD7 plays · 78 yds · 1:5399% → 100%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
99.3%
S CAROLINA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+16
99.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Demarre Kitt for 16 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+37
99.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 37 yds to the SCSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 14PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.7%
TeDarrius Wiley pass incomplete to Taquan West, broken up by Jayron KearseSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.7%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Taquan West for 5 yds to the SCSt 23Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+6
99.7%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Taquan West for 6 yds to the SCSt 29 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+40
99.7%
Dondre Lewis-Freeman run for 40 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-8
99.6%
TeDarrius Wiley sacked by Shaq Lawson for a loss of 8 yards to the Clem 42Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 18
OPP 42
-2
99.7%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Austin Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 44Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 20
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15END OF HALF8 plays · 33 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
99.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 7 yds to the Clem 18Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Mariel CooperSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+20
99.5%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Jay Jay McCullough for 20 yds to the Clem 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
99.6%
Cole Stoudt sacked by Alex Glover for a loss of 10 yards to the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 16PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
99.6%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Mykal Moody for a loss of 6 yards to the SCSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 19
OWN 17
+13
99.6%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Temarrick Hemingway for 13 yds to the SCSt 30Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Germone Hopper at the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD7 plays · 53 yds · 1:29100% → 100%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
99.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to D.J. Howard for 8 yds to the SCSt 45Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+25
99.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Adam Humphries for 25 yds to the SCSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
99.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Charone Peake for 6 yds to the SCSt 14Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+8
99.6%
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Charone Peake for 8 yds to the SCSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.6%
Cole Stoudt pass incomplete to Adam Humphries, broken up by Kory BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 11:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
99.7%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Trey Samuel for a loss of 2 yards to the SCSt 33Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-1
99.7%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Justin Taylor for a loss of 1 yard to the SCSt 32Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Jerome Pettiway punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Carter at the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19FG6 plays · 65 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
CLEMDrive 21TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jay Jay McCullough for 34 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 22INT TD8 plays · 26 yds · 3:050% → 0%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
TeDarrius Wiley pass incomplete to Temarrick Hemingway, broken up by T.J. BurrellSimilar
Q3 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
TeDarrius Wiley pass complete to Jason Baxter for 10 yds to the SCSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+60
99.9%
TeDarrius Wiley pass intercepted for a TD Jadar Johnson return for 60 yds for a TD, (Bradley Pinion KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 23PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
CLEMDrive 24TD6 plays · 51 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
SCSTDrive 25SF5 plays · -25 yds · 1:340% → 0%
CLEMDrive 26TD8 plays · 52 yds · 3:19100% → 100%
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Adrien Dunn for 5 yds to the SCSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SCSTDrive 27PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28FUMBLE TD6 plays · 24 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
100.0%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Adrien Dunn for 6 yds to the Clem 29Similar
Q4 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
100.0%
Kurt Fleming run for a loss of 5 yards to the Clem 29 Kurt Fleming fumbled, recovered by Clem Nick SchuesslerSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+35
100.0%
Kurt Fleming run for no gain Kurt Fleming fumbled, forced by Dominique Mitchell, recovered by SCSt Dominique Mitchell , return for 35 yds, (Tyler Scandrett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 29END OF GAME7 plays · 28 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:54
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Charone Peake for 7 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 11:17
Cole Stoudt pass complete to Artavis Scott for 37 yds for a TD, (Ammon Lakip KICK)
+0.9
FG · Q2 7:10
Ammon Lakip 38 yd FG GOOD
+0.9