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NMSU

New Mexico State 3 at Florida International 22

FIU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 7, 2026 · Pitbull Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:43 · (09:47) #91 B.Richter punt 44 yards to the FIU07, out of bounds at FIU07
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior+18.4Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 1:52: (01:52) Shotgun #11 Z.Marker rush middle for 0 yards to the NMSU03 (#13 K.Roberts-Day) PENALTY NMSU Personal Foul (#13 K.Roberts-Day) 2 yards from NMSU03 to NMSU01, 1ST DOWN — FIU win probability +3.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 10:12: (10:12) #40 K.Francone field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 10:12 — NMSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q2 2:29: (02:29) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 02:29 — FIU win probability +3.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 9:53: (09:53) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 09:53 — FIU win probability +1.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:04: (03:04) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 03:04 — FIU win probability +4.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NMSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:55NMSU 4th & 13 at FIU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:11FIU 4th & 7 at FIU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:43NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:13FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:20NMSU 4th & 1 at FIU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:12NMSU 4th & 6 at FIU 8, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.5%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:29FIU 4th & 17 at NMSU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:53NMSU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:53FIU 4th & 22 at NMSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.0%
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:51NMSU 4th & 23 at NMSU 5, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−4.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:04FIU 4th & 12 at NMSU 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−1.9
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:20NMSU 4th & 8 at FIU 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.1%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    10.8%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:37FIU 4th & 22 at FIU 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%−3.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:12FIU 4th & 3 at NMSU 3, up 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:43NMSU 4th & 7 at midfield, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:39NMSU 4th & 12 at NMSU 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:33FIU 4th & 21 at FIU 40, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:06FIU 4th & 5 at NMSU 30, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.3
    average punt
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:5730% → 30%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
70.1%
(14:57) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 27 yards gain to the FIU38 (#7 J.Celestine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
69.9%
(14:20) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU37 (#22 B.Littlejohn)Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
69.8%
(13:40) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #1 T.King thrown to FIU32Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+5
69.8%
PENALTY NMSU False Start (#50 L.Moise) 5 yards from FIU37 to FIU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 14
OPP 42
+1
69.9%
(13:35) Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU41 (#16 N.Watson)Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
69.8%
(12:59) #91 B.Richter punt 31 yards to the FIU10 fair catch by #2 M.Anderson at FIU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3870% → 69%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
69.8%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Stone thrown to FIU07 QB hurried by #14 S.AupiuSimilar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+4
69.8%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 4 yards gain to the FIU14 (#10 C.Barron)Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 6
OWN 14
-6
69.5%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl sacked for loss of 6 yards to the FIU08 (#16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+5
69.3%
PENALTY NMSU Offside (#21 Z.Thomas) 5 yards from FIU08 to FIU13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
69.3%
(11:19) #43 F.Visser punt 42 yards to the NMSU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2231% → 31%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
69.2%
(11:10) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush right for 6 yards gain to the FIU49 (#33 D.Holmes Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-2
68.9%
(10:31) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short left to #13 J.Stokes caught at NMSU47, for 2 yards loss to the NMSU49 (#9 J.Taylor)Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
68.9%
(09:53) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short middle to #1 T.King thrown to FIU47Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
69.3%
(09:47) #91 B.Richter punt 44 yards to the FIU07, out of bounds at FIU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:2569% → 68%
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
69.3%
(09:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush left for 5 yards gain to the FIU12 (#98 J.Gwan)Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+2
69.1%
(09:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl rush right for 2 yards gain to the FIU14 (#6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q1 8:12
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+2
68.7%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU16 (#6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+5
68.3%
PENALTY FIU False Start (#8 R.Gadson) 5 yards from FIU16 to FIU11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 6
OWN 11
+2
68.2%
(07:22) punt 41 yards to the NMSU48 #1 T.King return 2 yards to the NMSU50 (#22 B.Littlejohn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
50
-20
67.9%
(07:07) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass intercepted by #4 W.Miller at FIU27 #4 W.Miller return 20 yards to the FIU47 (#88 C.Su'esu'e)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 5:1569% → 73%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
69.4%
(07:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Ford rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU49 (#15 O.Okeke; #90 J.Downey)Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
69.3%
(06:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 Z.Marker rush right for 8 yards gain to the NMSU43 (#0 L.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
69.4%
(05:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #1 A.Carrie caught at NMSU42, for 6 yards to the NMSU37 (#10 C.Barron)Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+19
69.4%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #2 M.Anderson caught at NMSU25, for 19 yards to the NMSU18 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
69.6%
(04:07) Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 8 yards gain to the NMSU10 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+4
69.5%
(03:20) Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush right for 4 yards gain to the NMSU06 (#6 T.Gethers; #5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
69.6%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #4 J.Resar caught at NMSU08, for 3 yards to the NMSU03 (#0 L.Smith)Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 0
0
69.6%
(01:52) Shotgun #11 Z.Marker rush middle for 0 yards (-94) to the NMSU03 (#13 K.Roberts-Day) PENALTY NMSU Face Mask (#13 K.Roberts-Day) 2 yards from NMSU03 to NMSU01, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
73.1%
(01:52) Shotgun #11 Z.Marker rush middle for 0 yards to the NMSU03 (#13 K.Roberts-Day) PENALTY NMSU Personal Foul (#13 K.Roberts-Day) 2 yards from NMSU03 to NMSU01, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.2%
(01:30) No Huddle #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:31 #48 R.Czeremcha kick attempt good (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 6:1228% → 32%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
71.8%
(01:25) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush right for 7 yards gain to the NMSU32 (#9 J.Taylor)Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
71.1%
(00:58) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMSU36 (#97 E.Baldridge), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
71.5%
(00:25) Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush right for 3 yards gain to the NMSU39 (#7 J.Celestine)Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
71.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #1 T.King thrown to NMSU43Similar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+26
71.7%
(14:53) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #9 T.Graves caught at FIU46, for 26 yards to the FIU35 (#3 D.Hill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
70.0%
(14:11) Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the FIU33 (#3 D.Hill; #10 O.Wallace)Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+3
70.0%
(13:35) Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the FIU30 (#90 A.Cunningham)Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
70.7%
(12:58) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FIU26 (#8 R.Gadson). The previous play is under review. CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 5 yards gain to the FIU25 (#8 R.Gadson), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q2 12:20
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+1
71.3%
(12:26) #14 A.Damante rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FIU25 (#90 A.Cunningham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
69.9%
(11:46) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short right to #9 T.Graves caught at FIU12, for 13 yards to the FIU12 (#7 J.Celestine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.8%
(11:07) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Thomas thrown to FIU00Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
69.8%
(11:05) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FIU08 (#18 P.Stewart)Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
70.7%
(10:20) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Williams III thrown to FIU00 broken up by #7 J.CelestineSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
68.1%
(10:12) #40 K.Francone field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 10:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8FG
16 plays · 56 yds · 7:2369% → 74%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
69.0%
(10:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #9 J.Verdugo caught at FIU25, for 4 yards to the FIU25 (#6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-10
69.1%
(09:30) Shotgun #7 J.Celestine rush right for 10 yards loss to the FIU15 (#10 C.Barron)Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+19
67.9%
(08:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #8 G.Gaines caught at FIU32, for 19 yards to the FIU34 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-12
69.8%
(08:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left thrown to FIU40 QB hurried by #16 G.Peterson PENALTY FIU Intentional Grounding (#17 J.Kohl)Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 22
OWN 22
+10
69.3%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #4 J.Resar caught at FIU21, for 10 yards to the FIU32 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+14
68.7%
(07:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short right to #7 K.McNeal caught at FIU46, for 14 yards to the FIU46 (#4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
71.2%
(06:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NMSU46 (#0 L.Smith)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+18
71.6%
(06:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush right for 18 yards gain to the NMSU28 (#34 Z.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
72.1%
(05:20) Shotgun #22 S.Joseph rush right for 7 yards gain to the NMSU21 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q2 4:37
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+5
72.1%
(04:42) Shotgun #22 S.Joseph rush left for 5 yards gain to the NMSU16 (#5 N.Session; #15 O.Okeke), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
72.2%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 J.Ford rush middle for 0 yards to the NMSU16 (#6 T.Gethers; #16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
72.5%
(03:12) Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #6 E.Nelson caught at NMSU17, for 3 yards to the NMSU13 (#2 J.Gillespie)Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+10
71.5%
(02:40) Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 02:37 PENALTY FIU Holding (#55 D.Harley) 10 yards from NMSU13 to NMSU23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 17
OPP 23
0
70.2%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Stone thrown to NMSU05Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 17
OPP 23
+40
73.7%
(02:29) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 02:29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:2426% → 26%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
74.1%
(02:20) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NMSU26 (#7 J.Celestine; #95 A.Smith)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+7
73.4%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NMSU33 (#4 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
73.6%
(01:55) Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NMSU40 (#7 J.Celestine)Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+4
72.0%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #0 T.Washington Jr. caught at NMSU44, for 4 yards to the NMSU44 (#9 J.Taylor; #11 P.Courtney Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
72.0%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Thomas thrown to NMSU49 broken up by #6 L.JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
73.1%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NMSU50 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 4
50
0
71.9%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short left thrown to NMSU50 broken up by #12 R.Moss Jr.Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 4
50
0
73.7%
#91 B.Richter punt 40 yards to the FIU10, out of bounds at FIU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
75.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 1 yard loss to the FIU09 (#14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 11
OWN 9
-1
74.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 1 yard loss to the FIU08 (#16 G.Peterson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:5376% → 80%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
75.6%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush right for 6 yards gain to the FIU29 (#14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+23
76.0%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 23 yards gain to the NMSU48 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
77.7%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #3 D.Lyons caught at NMSU45, for 10 yards to the NMSU38 (#14 S.Aupiu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.8%
(12:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Stone thrown to NMSU38 broken up by #5 N.SessionSimilar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
77.6%
(12:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short middle to #1 A.Carrie thrown to NMSU45Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+15
76.6%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short middle to #4 J.Resar caught at NMSU25, for 15 yards to the NMSU23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
78.6%
(12:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #7 K.McNeal caught at NMSU25, for 1 yard to the NMSU22 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+3
78.7%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMSU19 (#21 Z.Thomas)Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-16
78.0%
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl sacked for loss of 16 yards to the NMSU35 (#14 S.Aupiu), fumble by #17 J.Kohl recovered by FIU #1 A.Carrie at NMSU35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 22
OPP 35
+52
79.6%
(09:53) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 09:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:5019% → 17%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
80.6%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 0 yards to the NMSU18 (#22 B.Littlejohn)Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
80.9%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short left to #2 J.Jones caught at NMSU18, for 2 yards to the NMSU20 (#2 D.Boykins) PENALTY NMSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from NMSU18 to NMSU13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 15
OWN 13
0
81.2%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short left to #1 T.King thrown to NMSU10 broken up by #7 J.CelestineSimilar
Q3 8:42
3RD & 15
OWN 13
-4
82.0%
(08:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante sacked for loss of 4 yards to the NMSU09 (#5 K.Simmons)Similar
Q3 7:59
4TH & 19
OWN 9
+4
82.9%
PENALTY NMSU Delay Of Game (#91 B.Richter) 4 yards from NMSU09 to NMSU05. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:51
4TH & 23
OWN 5
0
83.0%
(07:55) #91 B.Richter punt 32 yards to the NMSU37, out of bounds at NMSU37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:3783% → 91%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
83.1%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 Z.Marker pass complete short left to #10 J.Ford caught at NMSU43, for 5 yards to the NMSU32 (#0 L.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+2
84.0%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMSU30 (#15 O.Okeke). #25 J.Sandiford injured on the playSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+3
83.4%
(06:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMSU27 (#6 T.Gethers), 1ST DOWN. #78 N.Molina injured on the playSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
84.4%
(06:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush left for 2 yards gain to the NMSU25 (#4 D.Peters)Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+1
84.5%
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMSU24 (#16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+11
84.4%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass complete short left to #8 G.Gaines caught at NMSU13, for 11 yards to the NMSU13, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
85.2%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NMSU15 (#6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
86.7%
(03:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short middle to #8 G.Gaines thrown to NMSU00 QB hurried by #6 T.GethersSimilar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
85.8%
(03:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Anderson thrown to NMSU00 QB hurried by #15 O.OkekeSimilar
Q3 3:04
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+33
90.6%
(03:04) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 03:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:3912% → 9%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
88.5%
(02:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 8 yards gain to the NMSU46 (#18 P.Stewart) PENALTY NMSU Holding (#54 T.Keinath) 10 yards from NMSU38 to NMSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+1
89.6%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush right for 1 yard gain to the NMSU29 (#18 P.Stewart)Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 19
OWN 29
+1
90.4%
(02:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante rush right for 1 yard gain to the NMSU30 (#18 P.Stewart), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+32
90.9%
(01:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #11 A.Williams III caught at NMSU49, for 32 yards to the FIU38 (#0 D.Floyd; #18 P.Stewart), 1ST DOWN. #33 D.Holmes Jr. injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
89.9%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 2 yards gain to the FIU36 (#2 D.Boykins; #15 N.Jennings)Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
90.2%
(00:32) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short left to #88 C.Su'esu'e thrown to FIU21 QB hurried by #97 E.BaldridgeSimilar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
90.4%
(00:26) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #6 B.Malone-Bradford thrown to FIU33Similar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
90.8%
(00:25) Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.King thrown to FIU15, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:4393% → 94%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.2%
(00:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 8 yards gain to the FIU44 (#20 D.Cloyd), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+10
93.6%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NMSU46 (#5 N.Session; #20 D.Cloyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
93.5%
PENALTY FIU False Start (#50 J.Smith) 5 yards from NMSU46 to FIU49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-2
94.0%
(14:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 2 yards loss to the FIU47 (#13 K.Roberts-Day)Similar
Q4 13:26
2ND & 17
OWN 47
-5
94.2%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 5 yards loss to the FIU42 (#14 S.Aupiu), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:44
3RD & 22
OWN 42
0
94.2%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short middle to #8 G.Gaines thrown to FIU45Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 22
OWN 42
0
93.6%
(12:38) #43 F.Visser punt 44 yards to the NMSU14 fair catch by #1 T.King at NMSU14 PENALTY NMSU Holding 7 yards from NMSU14 to NMSU07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 16FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:346% → 6%
Q4 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
93.6%
(12:36) Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMSU09 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 8
OWN 9
-2
94.5%
(11:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NMSU07 (#33 D.Holmes Jr.), fumble by #3 T.Hedden recovered by FIU #99 G.Carter at NMSU07 #99 G.Carter return 0 yards to the NMSU07 (#50 L.Moise)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0296% → 96%
Q4 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
96.4%
(11:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush left for 0 yards to the NMSU07 (#16 G.Peterson; #34 Z.Davis)Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
96.4%
(10:53) Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMSU03 (#6 T.Gethers; #14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.5%
(10:19) Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Anderson thrown to NMSU01Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
96.2%
(10:15) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 10:12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:125% → 4%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+8
95.4%
(10:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at NMSU15, for 8 yards to the NMSU17 (#6 L.Johnson)Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 17
+14
95.2%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 14 yards gain to the NMSU31 (#2 D.Boykins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
95.2%
(09:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 5 yards gain to the NMSU36 (#5 K.Simmons)Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+11
95.3%
(08:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #15 J.Thomas caught at NMSU42, for 11 yards to the NMSU47 (#2 D.Boykins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
95.3%
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMSU50 (#2 D.Boykins)Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 7
50
0
95.3%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short middle to #0 T.Washington Jr. thrown to FIU48Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 7
50
0
95.4%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short middle thrown to NMSU50 QB hurried by #9 J.Taylor. The previous play is under review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: #3 T.Hedden sacked for loss of 12 yards to the NMSU38 (#9 J.Taylor), fumble by #3 T.Hedden recovered by FIU #16 N.Watson at NMSU38 return 38 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN)Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 7
50
0
95.6%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep middle to #1 T.King thrown to FIU20, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
50
0
97.1%
(07:42) Shotgun #17 J.Kohl pass intercepted by #2 J.Gillespie at NMSU08 #2 J.Gillespie return 0 yards to the NMSU08 (#6 E.Nelson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:514% → 4%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
96.0%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short left to #11 A.Williams III thrown to NMSU10Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-2
96.1%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 2 yards loss to the NMSU06 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.; #97 E.Baldridge)Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
96.3%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short right thrown to NMSU08 QB hurried by #33 D.Holmes Jr.Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+1
96.3%
(06:46) #91 B.Richter punt 34 yards to the NMSU40 #2 M.Anderson return 10 yards to the NMSU30 (#22 R.Chapman) PENALTY FIU Illegal Block in Back (#0 D.Floyd) 10 yards from NMSU39 to NMSU49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 2:0197% → 97%
Q4 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
97.4%
(06:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMSU48 (#6 T.Gethers; #44 E.Tayou)Similar
Q4 5:46
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+3
97.7%
(05:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Lyons rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMSU45 (#5 N.Session) PENALTY FIU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#52 A.Neal) 15 yards from NMSU45 to FIU40Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 21
OWN 40
0
97.6%
(05:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 0 yards to the FIU40 (#8 B.Vislisel; #42 F.Fualema)Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 21
OWN 40
0
97.4%
(04:41) #43 F.Visser punt 35 yards to the NMSU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
(04:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass intercepted by #3 D.Hill at NMSU45, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 23FG
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:1198% → 100%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
98.2%
(04:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush right for 2 yards gain to the NMSU43 (#42 F.Fualema)Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+7
98.3%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NMSU36 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+1
98.4%
(02:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Carrie rush left for 1 yard gain to the NMSU35 (#5 N.Session; #42 F.Fualema), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.7%
(02:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Joseph rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMSU33 (#13 K.Roberts-Day)Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+4
98.7%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Joseph rush right for 4 yards gain to the NMSU29 (#15 O.Okeke)Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 4
OPP 29
-1
98.9%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Joseph rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NMSU30 (#42 F.Fualema; #34 Z.Davis)Similar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
99.7%
(01:06) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 01:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:541% → 1%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Thomas thrown to NMSU30Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.4%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #2 J.Jones caught at NMSU27, for 7 yards to the NMSU32 (#2 D.Boykins)Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.3%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short right to #2 J.Jones caught at NMSU30, for 4 yards to the NMSU36 (#2 D.Boykins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.4%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short left to #10 L.Ravare caught at NMSU45, for 12 yards to the NMSU48 (#29 D.Turnbull), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
99.4%
(00:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #2 J.Jones caught at NMSU50, for 8 yards to the FIU44 (#11 P.Courtney Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-5
99.2%
(00:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante sacked for loss of 5 yards to the FIU49 (#45 L.Green Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 3:04
(03:04) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 03:04
+4.8
KEY PLAY · Q1 1:52
(01:52) Shotgun #11 Z.Marker rush middle for 0 yards to the NMSU03 (#13 K.Roberts-Day) PENALTY NMSU Personal Foul (#13 K.Roberts-Day) 2 yards from NMSU03 to NMSU01, 1ST DOWN
+3.6
FG · Q2 2:29
(02:29) #48 R.Czeremcha field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #43 F.Visser, LS: #47 J.Wood), clock 02:29
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com