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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 13 at Jacksonville State 23

JXST
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of GameTD-15.3JXST 51.2%(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16R.Gagliano pass complete deep right to#1 M.Allen caught at Jax St00, for 32yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock10:11, 1ST DOWN #92 A.Logan rushattempt failedAWAY 13 - HOME 10 · Q3 10:11
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:11 · (10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep right to #1 M.Allen caught at Jax St00, for 32 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:11, 1ST DOWN #92 A.Logan rush attempt failed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 92Pregame prior+8.6Home team on offense−7.1Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:50: Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 1 yard gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:50 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) — JXST win probability +5.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:27: No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #3 C.Lacy caught at Jax St00, for 5 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin) — MTSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 60%).
  3. TD · Q3 10:11: (10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep right to #1 M.Allen caught at Jax St00, for 32 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:11, 1ST DOWN #92 A.Logan rush attempt failed — MTSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 49%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:43: (05:52) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 05:43 — JXST win probability +9.6 pts (now 64%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:15: (01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU00, for 38 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) — JXST win probability +19.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 11:13MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:14JXST 4th & 9 at MTSU 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:59MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:59JXST 4th & 2 at MTSU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:35JXST 4th & 3 at MTSU 3, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    64.7%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:30MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:30JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:47MTSU 4th & 2 at JXST 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−2.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    31.3%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:43JXST 4th & 5 at MTSU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−11.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:42MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−3.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:03MTSU 4th & 14 at JXST 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:46JXST 4th & 1 at MTSU 11, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%−1.9
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.8%−6.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:15MTSU 4th & 22 at JXST 45, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%−0.5
    25% to make
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 6:50JXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:27MTSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:11MTSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    46.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:15JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JXSTDrive 1INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:3170% → 71%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 7 yards gain to the Jax St32 (#2 J.Lowe), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
70.4%
(14:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #17 J.Williams caught at Jax St33, for 15 yards to the Jax St47 (#2 J.Lowe; #13 A.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
70.5%
(14:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MTSU46, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+11
70.5%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #17 J.Williams caught at MTSU40, for 11 yards to the MTSU35 (#2 J.Lowe), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
70.6%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass intercepted by #0 K.Woods at MTSU21 #0 K.Woods return 3 yards to the MTSU24 (#44 J.Scissum)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5930% → 30%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.4%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU24 (#44 K.Perry; #9 J.Carr)Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-7
70.4%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MTSU17 (#45 M.Rosa)Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 17
OWN 17
+16
70.5%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MTSU33 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q1 11:13
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+9
70.3%
(11:20) #92 A.Logan punt 52 yards to the Jax St15 #1 C.Nix return 9 yards to the Jax St24 (#34 A.Clemons), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 3FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:4570% → 70%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
70.2%
(11:13) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 11 yards gain to the Jax St35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
70.2%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St36 (#93 A.Butts)Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+8
70.2%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #30 L.Gilbert caught at Jax St36, for 8 yards to the Jax St44 (#26 K.Smith)Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+48
70.4%
(09:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 48 yards gain to the MTSU08 (#2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
70.7%
(08:30) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to MTSU00Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+10
70.7%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #3 D.Cannon thrown to MTSU00 PENALTY Jax St Pass Interference (#44 J.Scissum) 10 yards from MTSU08 to MTSU18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+9
70.5%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MTSU09 (#30 B.Williams)Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
70.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #44 J.Scissum caught at MTSU00, for 9 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:27 PENALTY Jax St Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#55 R.Walker) 5 yards from MTSU09 to MTSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
70.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to MTSU00 PENALTY MTSU Offside (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson) 5 yards from MTSU14 to MTSU09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
70.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Johnson thrown to MTSU00 broken up by #21 J.HardySimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
70.0%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 07:14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:1530% → 30%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
70.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MTSU40 (#3 T.Fegans; #7 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
69.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #0 S.Fleming thrown to MTSU41 broken up by #93 J.CampbellSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+15
69.7%
No Huddle #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep left to #85 N.Clifton thrown to Jax St30 PENALTY Jax St Face Mask (#8 J.Brooks) 15 yards from MTSU40 to Jax St45, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
69.2%
No Huddle #8 A.Martin Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the Jax St42 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-9
69.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Lacy rush left for 9 yards loss to the MTSU49 (#7 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 16
OWN 49
0
69.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep left to #3 C.Lacy thrown to Jax St23Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 16
OWN 49
0
70.1%
#92 A.Logan punt 51 yards to the Jax St00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 79 yds · 6:2470% → 69%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
69.5%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at Jax St34, for 15 yards to the Jax St35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Jax St49 (#26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+31
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #30 L.Gilbert caught at MTSU35, for 31 yards to the MTSU20 (#2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
70.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MTSU17 (#13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
70.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush right for 3 yards gain to the MTSU14 (#13 A.Taylor; #5 D.McCutcheon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:59
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+2
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU12 (#46 R.Johnson)Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+4
69.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU10, for 4 yards to the MTSU08 (#21 J.Hardy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
70.7%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU06 (#26 K.Smith; #13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
70.4%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU05 (#93 A.Butts)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
70.0%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU03 (#26 K.Smith; #30 B.Williams)Similar
Q2 13:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
69.0%
#7 K.Lando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU01 (#2 J.Lowe; #26 K.Smith), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:0531% → 30%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
69.1%
No Huddle #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU06, for 7 yards to the MTSU08 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+3
69.3%
No Huddle #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MTSU11 (#2 M.Joseph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
68.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #83 K.Perdue caught at MTSU13, for 2 yards to the MTSU13 (#5 R.Billings)Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+21
69.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 20 yards gain (15) to the MTSU33 (#1 C.Nix), out of bounds PENALTY MTSU Holding (#1 M.Allen) 10 yards from MTSU28 to MTSU18Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
68.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MTSU18 (#2 M.Joseph; #28 C.Johnson)Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
69.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #3 C.Lacy thrown to MTSU21 broken up by #3 T.FegansSimilar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 3
OWN 18
+7
69.8%
#92 A.Logan punt 51 yards to the Jax St31 #1 C.Nix return 7 yards to the Jax St38 (#34 A.Clemons), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:4069% → 76%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
69.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #17 J.Williams thrown to Jax St35Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
68.8%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #17 J.Williams thrown to Jax St45Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+9
67.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St45, for 9 yards to the Jax St47 (#5 D.McCutcheon)Similar
Q2 10:30
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+7
68.5%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
70.1%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #17 J.Williams caught at MTSU33, for 17 yards to the MTSU29 (#21 J.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush left for 8 yards gain to the MTSU21 (#11 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+15
70.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #5 D.Gentry caught at MTSU20, for 15 yards to the MTSU06 (#2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
70.4%
Shotgun #17 J.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the MTSU01 (#44 K.Call)Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 1 yard gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:50 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
18 plays · 90 yds · 6:1725% → 34%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
75.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MTSU18 (#2 M.Joseph)Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+2
75.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU20 (#44 K.Perry; #34 J.McCollough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
75.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the MTSU30 (#1 C.Nix; #12 B.Core), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
74.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MTSU36, for 11 yards to the MTSU41 (#13 J.Cruz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
74.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #85 N.Clifton caught at MTSU46, for 14 yards to the Jax St45 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
73.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush right for 4 yards loss to the Jax St49 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+8
74.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the Jax St41 (#36 B.Matthews)Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+13
73.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #3 C.Lacy caught at Jax St35, for 13 yards to the Jax St28 (#1 C.Nix; #8 J.Brooks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
72.3%
PENALTY MTSU False Start (#1 M.Allen) 5 yards from Jax St28 to Jax St33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
73.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St29 (#9 J.Carr)Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+16
72.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 16 yards gain to the Jax St13 (#44 K.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
72.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain (2) to the Jax St06 (#1 C.Nix) PENALTY MTSU Holding (#71 Q.Butler) 10 yards from Jax St11 to Jax St21Similar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 18
OPP 21
+15
73.7%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at Jax St19, for 15 yards to the Jax St06 (#7 M.Woods)Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+1
74.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St05 (#0 M.Butler; #35 A.Thompson)Similar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
66.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #3 C.Lacy caught at Jax St00, for 5 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:27, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 9INT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0969% → 72%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
69.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #22 L.Farrington caught at Jax St35, for 8 yards to the Jax St40 (#26 K.Smith; #11 J.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+20
71.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 20 yards gain to the MTSU40, out of bounds at MTSU40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-51
71.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass intercepted by #11 J.Johnson at MTSU17 #11 J.Johnson return 51 yards to the Jax St32 (#11 D.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3932% → 49%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.2%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano rush right for 1 yard gain to the MTSU26 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
68.3%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MTSU25, for 5 yards to the MTSU31 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q3 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
68.1%
(13:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #7 H.Wasson caught at MTSU44, for 13 yards to the MTSU44, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
65.6%
(13:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 12 yards gain to the Jax St44 fumbled by #8 A.Martin Jr. at Jax St44 forced by #9 J.Carr, out of bounds at Jax St44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.8%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Lacy thrown to Jax St44 broken up by #7 M.WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
64.8%
(12:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St40 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
65.0%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #83 K.Perdue caught at Jax St36, for 4 yards to the Jax St36 (#36 B.Matthews), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+4
66.5%
(10:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St32 (#34 J.McCollough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
51.2%
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep right to #1 M.Allen caught at Jax St00, for 32 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:11, 1ST DOWN #92 A.Logan rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:2856% → 64%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St24, for 6 yards to the Jax St31 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
58.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St34, for 7 yards to the Jax St38 (#26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
57.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 21 yards gain to the MTSU41 (#21 J.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
60.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep right to #17 J.Williams thrown to MTSU10 broken up by #2 J.LoweSimilar
Q3 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
60.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU34 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+16
59.8%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #22 L.Farrington caught at MTSU32, for 16 yards to the MTSU18 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
61.5%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to MTSU15 QB hurried by #93 A.ButtsSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
59.3%
(07:09) Shotgun #12 C.Creel sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MTSU21 (#42 L.Sims, #95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+8
54.5%
(06:25) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MTSU13 (#11 J.Johnson; #95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q3 5:43
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+31
64.1%
(05:52) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 05:43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5741% → 39%
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.8%
(05:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #13 Z.Butler thrown to MTSU29Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.2%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MTSU24 (#2 M.Joseph; #45 M.Rosa)Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
60.1%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #6 A.Jones thrown to MTSU21 QB hurried by #0 M.Butler and #6 K.CookSimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
61.3%
(04:54) #92 A.Logan punt 52 yards to the Jax St24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 3:2062% → 85%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
61.6%
(04:43) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St27 (#26 K.Smith; #13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+12
61.7%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St39, for 12 yards to the Jax St39 (#11 J.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
63.5%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St37, for 2 yards to the Jax St41 (#44 K.Call)Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
64.0%
(03:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Jax St50 (#0 K.Woods; #26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
50
+8
65.6%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MTSU42 (#30 B.Williams)Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
66.0%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MTSU38 (#98 E.Gyamfi; #26 K.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
85.1%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU00, for 38 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
14 plays · 49 yds · 6:0022% → 17%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
78.2%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU16 (#2 M.Joseph; #99 A.Rumph)Similar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+5
78.7%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU21 (#5 R.Billings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
78.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU28, for 21 yards to the MTSU42 (#0 M.Butler; #5 R.Billings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
76.5%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short right to #83 K.Perdue thrown to Jax St47 QB hurried by #0 M.ButlerSimilar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
79.4%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #7 H.Wasson caught at MTSU42, for 6 yards to the MTSU48 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
78.0%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Jax St46 (#99 A.Rumph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
77.0%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #85 N.Clifton caught at Jax St38, for 8 yards to the Jax St38 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+2
76.4%
(12:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Jax St36 (#28 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
77.6%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Jax St40 (#6 K.Cook, #14 A.Toombs)Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
79.5%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the Jax St40 (#93 J.Campbell; #28 C.Johnson)Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 14
OPP 40
0
81.3%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Allen thrown to Jax St25Similar
Q4 10:03
4TH & 14
OPP 40
0
82.7%
(10:09) #92 A.Logan punt 40 yards to the Jax St00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 7:1086% → 96%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
85.8%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St25 (#26 K.Smith)Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
85.9%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #44 J.Scissum caught at Jax St27, for 8 yards to the Jax St33 (#2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.2%
(08:44) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 0 yards to the Jax St33 (#91 F.Hixon)Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
86.9%
(08:01) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Jax St44 (#13 A.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
89.8%
(07:17) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St41, for 12 yards to the MTSU44 (#30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
90.5%
(06:33) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MTSU36, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
91.4%
(05:56) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MTSU32 (#13 A.Taylor), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
91.7%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MTSU20 (#0 K.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
93.2%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU19 (#26 K.Smith; #95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+1
93.7%
(03:45) Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush left for 1 yard gain to the MTSU18 (#46 R.Johnson)Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+7
93.9%
(03:37) Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #44 J.Scissum caught at MTSU15, for 7 yards to the MTSU11 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+29
95.5%
(02:45) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 02:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:275% → 4%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.1%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #9 T.Brown Jr. thrown to MTSU29Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+26
95.1%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU40, for 26 yards to the Jax St49 (#5 R.Billings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
93.7%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #6 A.Jones caught at Jax St33, for 16 yards to the Jax St33, out of bounds at Jax St33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.0%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Lacy thrown to Jax St34 broken up by #7 K.LandoSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-14
93.3%
(01:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle thrown to Jax St46 QB hurried by #16 Q.Hood PENALTY MTSU Intentional Grounding (#16 R.Gagliano)Similar
Q4 1:26
3RD & 24
OPP 47
+2
95.3%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at Jax St45, for 2 yards to the Jax St45 (#3 T.Fegans), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 22
OPP 45
+16
95.6%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at Jax St32, for 16 yards to the Jax St29 (#3 T.Fegans), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17END OF GAME
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:5297% → 98%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.5%
(01:15) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St32 (#44 K.Call; #91 F.Hixon)Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
96.8%
(01:09) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St37 (#26 K.Smith)Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+19
97.3%
(01:01) Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 19 yards gain to the MTSU44 (#5 D.McCutcheon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
97.5%
(00:18) Jacksonville St. rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MTSU47, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:15
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at MTSU00, for 38 yards to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:15, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)
+19.1
TD · Q3 10:11
(10:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep right to #1 M.Allen caught at Jax St00, for 32 yards to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:11, 1ST DOWN #92 A.Logan rush attempt failed
-15.3
FG · Q3 5:43
(05:52) #37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 05:43
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com