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UL

Louisiana 31 at Louisiana Tech 32

LT
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.9LT 51.7%(06:52) #95 T.Sterner field goalattempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #49M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock06:52AWAY 10 - HOME 7 · Q2 6:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:52 · (06:52) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 06:52
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 57Home team on offense−3.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Pregame prior+3.8Score differential−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:51: (10:04) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 20 yards gain to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:51, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +13.8 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:01: Shotgun #11 J.Mickens rush left for 3 yards gain to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:01 #5 B.Baker pass attempt failed — LT win probability +17.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 11:34: (11:36) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep left to #9 K.Wade caught at TECH10, for 45 yards to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft) — UL win probability +21.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:44: (03:44) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:44, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims) — LT win probability +19.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:46: (00:45) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL00, for 7 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46, 1ST DOWN #5 B.Baker rush attempt failed — LT win probability +50.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:37LT 4th & 1 at LT 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:38UL 4th & 7 at UL 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:52UL 4th & 9 at LT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−5.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:22LT 4th & 2 at UL 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.4
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    61.3%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 12:34LT 4th & 6 at LT 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  6. Q4 8:11LT 4th & 21 at LT 43, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  7. Q4 6:42UL 4th & 8 at UL 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−1.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  8. Q4 3:44LT 4th & 3 at UL 12, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%−0.9
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:41UL 4th & 5 at UL 30, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 14:53LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:45UL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:48LT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:51UL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:50UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:01LT Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    37.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:34UL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:44LT Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:46LT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.6 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.6%−2.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULDrive 1FUMBLE
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:3744% → 44%
Q1 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #24 S.Blanco caught at ULL20, for 4 yards to the ULL29 QB hurried by #21 Z.Hill (#0 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.3%
(14:35) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush right for 0 yards to the ULL29 (#11 E.Oguns; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q1 14:11
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
56.3%
(14:14) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ULL38 (#16 T.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
56.3%
(14:01) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ULL43 (#16 T.Rogers; #1 S.Fongang)Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
56.2%
PENALTY ULL False Start (#77 J.Isom) 5 yards from ULL43 to ULL38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+41
56.3%
(13:02) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at ULL35, for 41 yards to the TECH21 (#16 T.Rogers; #7 J.Lockhardt), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
56.0%
(12:21) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 11 yards gain to the TECH10 (#16 T.Rogers), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY ULL False Start (#71 G.Jackson) 5 yards from TECH10 to TECH15Similar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
55.9%
(11:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 2 yards gain to the TECH13 fumbled by #7 L.Winfield at TECH13 forced by #24 A.Jackson Jr. recovered by TECH #24 A.Jackson Jr. at TECH13, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0757% → 56%
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
56.5%
(10:57) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #26 D.Brooks caught at TECH15, for 11 yards to the TECH24 (#44 J.St. Andre), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
56.6%
(10:32) Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TECH31 (#41 C.Edwards; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
56.9%
(10:04) Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TECH30 (#41 C.Edwards)Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
56.5%
(09:14) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at TECH31, for 3 yards to the TECH33 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
56.3%
(08:54) #29 L.Matthews punt 67 yards to the ULL00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:4544% → 43%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
56.5%
(08:37) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #20 J.Garner caught at ULL19, for 1 yard to the ULL21 QB hurried by #24 A.Jackson Jr. (#21 Z.Hill; #10 K.Fields)Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
56.6%
(08:01) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 0 yards to the ULL21 (#10 K.Fields; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+19
56.8%
(07:33) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #6 S.Sampson Jr. caught at ULL40, for 19 yards to the ULL40 QB hurried by #44 K.Coleman (#1 S.Fongang), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
56.0%
(06:43) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush right for 5 yards loss to the ULL35 (#98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+7
56.6%
(06:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #22 A.Reagan Jr. caught at ULL33, for 7 yards to the ULL42 (#16 T.Rogers; #10 K.Fields), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+1
56.3%
(05:19) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULL43 (#24 A.Jackson Jr.; #93 J.Bradford)Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+3
56.9%
(04:56) #49 M.Golding punt 45 yards to the TECH12 #3 D.Latulas return 3 yards to the TECH15 (#4 P.Malbrue; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
12 plays · 85 yds · 4:3057% → 64%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
56.7%
(04:38) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #86 T.Shettron caught at TECH28, for 18 yards to the TECH33, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
56.9%
(04:09) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #86 T.Shettron caught at TECH34, for 2 yards loss to the TECH31 (#44 J.St. Andre; #41 C.Edwards)Similar
Q1 3:28
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+12
56.7%
(03:39) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #86 T.Shettron caught at TECH30, for 12 yards to the TECH43 (#44 J.St. Andre; #2 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
57.9%
(02:57) Shotgun #23 S.Snider rush left for 10 yards gain to the ULL47 (#3 M.Johnson; #9 L.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.4%
(02:26) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short right to #26 D.Brooks thrown to ULL45Similar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+21
58.3%
(02:20) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #86 T.Shettron caught at ULL31, for 21 yards to the ULL26 QB hurried by #68 F.West Jr. (#10 A.Demery; #24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
58.9%
(01:46) Shotgun #26 D.Brooks rush middle for 0 yards to the ULL26 (#9 L.Williams; #34 J.Reed)Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+19
59.1%
(01:11) Shotgun #26 D.Brooks pass complete short right to #86 T.Shettron caught at ULL12, for 19 yards to the ULL07, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
59.2%
(00:23) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULL05 (#95 M.Baudoin IV; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
59.2%
PENALTY TECH False Start (#86 T.Shettron) 5 yards from ULL05 to ULL10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
64.0%
(14:57) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL11, for 10 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53 #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0238% → 46%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
(14:53) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep middle to #9 K.Wade thrown to ULL45 QB hurried by #7 J.LockhardtSimilar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.3%
(14:45) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULL26 (#90 J.Odom; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+16
62.9%
(14:11) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 9 yards to the ULL17 (#44 K.Coleman) PENALTY TECH Face Mask (#90 J.Odom) 16 yards from ULL26 to ULL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
61.8%
(13:39) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the ULL47 (#7 J.Lockhardt; #22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+15
61.3%
(13:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #20 J.Garner thrown to ULL50 PENALTY TECH Roughing The Passer (#7 J.Lockhardt) 15 yards from ULL47 to TECH38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
61.1%
(13:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep middle to #9 K.Wade thrown to TECH18 PENALTY TECH Pass Interference (#7 J.Lockhardt) 15 yards from TECH38 to TECH23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
61.1%
(12:59) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep middle to #9 K.Wade thrown to TECH18, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TECH Pass Interference (#7 J.Lockhardt) 15 yards from TECH38 to TECH23, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
60.2%
(12:53) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 0 yards to the TECH23 (#22 J.Mayfield)Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+14
60.6%
(12:17) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short left to #20 J.Garner caught at TECH09, for 14 yards to the TECH09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.4%
(11:35) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #83 B.Chappell thrown to TECH07 broken up by #24 A.Jackson Jr.Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
60.4%
(11:36) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 2 yards gain to the TECH07 (#21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q2 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
54.2%
(10:51) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 7 yards gain to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:45 #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3958% → 57%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
57.5%
(10:35) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short left to #26 D.Brooks thrown to TECH26 QB hurried by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
57.4%
(10:35) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TECH25 (#95 M.Baudoin IV; #93 B.Stewart)Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
56.6%
(09:56) Shotgun #5 B.Baker sacked for loss of 0 yards to the TECH25 (#80 L.Jones), fumble by #5 B.Baker recovered by ULL #0 P.Ashe at TECH25, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7FG
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4347% → 48%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
53.0%
(09:48) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #22 A.Reagan Jr. caught at TECH23, for 2 yards to the TECH23 (#7 J.Lockhardt), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
52.9%
(09:10) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TECH22 (#7 J.Lockhardt; #98 D.Rieman)Similar
Q2 8:23
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+9
53.7%
(08:30) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TECH13 (#93 J.Bradford; #24 A.Jackson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
51.6%
(07:55) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the TECH12 (#24 A.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
51.4%
(07:03) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short middle to #10 R.Babineaux thrown to TECH00Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
52.6%
(07:01) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short middle to #17 L.Strother thrown to TECH02 broken up by #16 T.RogersSimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
51.7%
(06:52) #95 T.Sterner field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft), clock 06:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:4453% → 63%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
52.5%
(06:38) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #47 J.Wilkerson caught at TECH28, for 4 yards to the TECH34 (#3 M.Johnson; #11 B.Gordon Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
53.7%
(06:03) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TECH44 (#21 M.Eleam; #95 M.Baudoin IV), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
54.7%
(05:23) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at TECH46, for 9 yards to the ULL47 (#21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-2
55.5%
(04:46) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #47 J.Wilkerson caught at TECH46, for 2 yards loss to the ULL49 QB hurried by #3 M.Johnson (#10 A.Demery)Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+19
54.7%
(04:11) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL31, for 19 yards to the ULL30 (#26 K.Wilson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
56.4%
(03:47) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete deep right to #86 T.Shettron thrown to ULL10 QB hurried by #2 A.Williams and #9 L.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
56.3%
(03:45) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ULL27 (#41 C.Edwards; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+12
55.0%
(03:09) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL21, for 12 yards to the ULL15 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
56.1%
(02:32) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULL14 (#2 A.Williams)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 9
OPP 14
0
56.3%
Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short right to #11 J.Mickens thrown to ULL00 QB hurried by #9 L.Williams and #68 F.West Jr.Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+14
63.1%
(01:51) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL02, for 14 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:48, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt failed (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9INT
11 plays · 25 yds · 0:5439% → 43%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
60.6%
(01:30) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #4 T.Chaney caught at ULL26, for 0 yards to the ULL26 (#4 K.Franklin)Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
61.0%
(01:07) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #87 K.Brooks caught at ULL23, for 12 yards to the ULL38 (#1 S.Fongang), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
59.5%
(00:58) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 1 yard to the ULL37 (#24 A.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-2
60.5%
(00:56) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 2 yards loss to the ULL35, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+5
61.5%
PENALTY TECH Offside (#54 J.Williams) 5 yards from ULL35 to ULL40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+6
59.2%
(00:52) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short right to #17 L.Strother caught at ULL44, for 6 yards to the ULL46 (#7 J.Lockhardt)Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+5
59.5%
(00:43) #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULL47 (#10 K.Fields; #24 A.Jackson Jr.) PENALTY TECH Illegal Substitution (#98 D.Rieman) 5 yards from ULL46 to TECH49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-22
57.1%
(00:32) #7 L.Winfield pass intercepted by #3 K.Carter at TECH38 #3 K.Carter return 22 yards to the ULL40 (#88 C.Jensen; #7 L.Winfield)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10MISSED FG
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0465% → 63%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
64.6%
(00:25) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL36, for 5 yards to the ULL35 (#21 M.Eleam), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
65.0%
(00:22) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short left to #86 T.Shettron thrown to ULL30Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+3
63.9%
(00:22) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 3 yards gain to the ULL32 (#3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+50
62.7%
(00:00) #31 H.Rioux field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1561% → 62%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
61.4%
(14:52) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 8 yards gain to the TECH35 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+8
64.1%
(14:23) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at TECH38, for 8 yards to the TECH43 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
64.8%
(13:55) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TECH44 (#44 J.St. Andre; #9 L.Williams)Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
64.8%
(13:20) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short left to #11 J.Mickens thrown to TECH44 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+3
62.9%
(13:18) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #1 A.Burnette caught at TECH38, for 3 yards to the TECH47 (#3 M.Johnson; #8 K.Jackson)Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
62.1%
(12:34) #29 L.Matthews punt 44 yards to the ULL09 fair catch by #11 B.Gordon Jr. at ULL09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 12TD
6 plays · 91 yds · 2:4038% → 57%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
62.1%
(12:34) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULL10 (#93 J.Bradford; #0 J.Mcrae)Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+13
62.2%
(11:55) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete short middle to #17 L.Strother caught at ULL22, for 13 yards to the ULL23 (#1 S.Fongang; #0 J.Mcrae), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
61.7%
(11:35) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush left for 14 yards gain to the ULL37, out of bounds at ULL37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+43
60.7%
(11:02) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep right to #9 K.Wade caught at TECH33, for 43 yards to the TECH20 (#1 S.Fongang), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
56.6%
(10:33) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 0 yards to the TECH20 (#44 K.Coleman; #24 A.Jackson Jr.)Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
42.8%
(10:04) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush middle for 20 yards gain to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:51, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13FUMBLE
10 plays · 55 yds · 4:3748% → 53%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
48.2%
(09:41) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 10 yards gain to the TECH34 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
48.6%
(09:22) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush right for 1 yard gain to the TECH35 (#44 J.St. Andre; #95 M.Baudoin IV)Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
48.4%
(08:35) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #86 T.Shettron caught at TECH42, for 7 yards to the TECH42 (#21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+10
50.1%
(08:11) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 10 yards gain to the ULL48 (#37 H.Kidder; #93 B.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
50.7%
(07:24) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #1 A.Burnette caught at ULL49, for 3 yards to the ULL45 (#44 J.St. Andre; #3 M.Johnson)Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+7
50.7%
(06:52) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #86 T.Shettron caught at ULL39, for 7 yards to the ULL38 (#3 M.Johnson; #15 N.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
50.7%
(06:15) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL38, for 9 yards to the ULL29 (#3 M.Johnson; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+12
53.0%
(05:35) Shotgun #23 S.Snider rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ULL17 (#8 K.Jackson; #24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-4
52.6%
(05:03) Shotgun #23 S.Snider rush middle for 4 yards loss to the ULL21 fumbled by #23 S.Snider at ULL21 forced by #68 F.West Jr. recovered by ULL #68 F.West Jr. at ULL21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 3:0457% → 77%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
43.4%
(05:01) Shotgun #22 A.Reagan Jr. rush right for 10 yards gain to the ULL31 (#7 J.Lockhardt; #13 M.Moultrie II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
40.4%
(04:15) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield sacked for loss of 10 yards to the ULL21 (#44 K.Coleman)Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 20
OWN 21
+11
41.0%
(03:30) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush right for 11 yards gain to the ULL32 (#1 S.Fongang)Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+32
40.5%
(03:02) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep middle to #4 T.Chaney caught at TECH39, for 32 yards to the TECH36 (#1 S.Fongang; #0 J.Mcrae), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
35.7%
(02:25) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush right for 11 yards gain to the TECH25 (#4 K.Franklin; #13 M.Moultrie II), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
22.6%
(01:56) Shotgun #4 T.Chaney rush left for 25 yards gain to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:50, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:2825% → 46%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
24.5%
(01:41) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at TECH30, for 6 yards to the TECH30, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+1
24.6%
(01:10) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush left for 1 yard gain to the TECH31 (#44 J.St. Andre; #24 L.Bates)Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+24
23.3%
(00:28) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 24 yards gain to the ULL45 (#8 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+18
26.8%
(00:03) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL27, for 18 yards to the ULL27 (#24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
28.6%
PENALTY TECH False Start (#6 M.Calwise Jr.) 5 yards from ULL27 to ULL32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+1
27.2%
Shotgun #86 T.Shettron rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULL31 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+28
26.6%
Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL12, for 28 yards to the ULL03 (#21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
28.6%
Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 0 yards to the ULL03 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.7%
Shotgun #11 J.Mickens rush left for 3 yards gain to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:01 #5 B.Baker pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 1:1067% → 88%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
32.9%
(12:49) Shotgun #2 R.Dennis rush right for 23 yards gain to the TECH47 (#0 J.Mcrae), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+45
11.9%
(11:36) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep left to #9 K.Wade caught at TECH10, for 45 yards to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 3:1418% → 13%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
18.3%
(11:33) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 18 yards gain to the TECH43 (#24 L.Bates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
19.3%
(11:01) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 9 yards gain to the ULL48 (#93 B.Stewart)Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
18.4%
(10:17) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short middle to #11 J.Mickens thrown to ULL30 broken up by #11 B.Gordon Jr.Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+2
17.9%
(10:17) #5 B.Baker rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULL46 (#68 F.West Jr.; #9 L.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
18.1%
(09:49) #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Burnette thrown to ULL45 broken up by #10 A.DemerySimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
17.3%
(09:36) #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL46, for 8 yards to the ULL38 (#80 L.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-19
16.8%
(08:47) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 19 yards loss to the TECH43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 21
OWN 43
0
13.2%
(08:11) #29 L.Matthews punt 37 yards to the ULL20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2190% → 91%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
9.6%
(08:07) Shotgun #20 J.Garner rush left for 0 yards to the ULL20 (#10 K.Fields)Similar
Q4 7:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.3%
(07:31) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush middle for 2 yards gain to the ULL22 (#1 S.Fongang)Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
9.1%
(06:58) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete short right to #9 K.Wade thrown to ULL33 broken up by #0 J.McraeSimilar
Q4 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
9.2%
(06:42) #49 M.Golding punt 41 yards to the TECH37 fair catch by #3 D.Latulas at TECH37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:4410% → 30%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
10.3%
(06:37) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short right to #84 E.Finley caught at TECH47, for 14 yards to the ULL49 (#44 J.St. Andre; #21 M.Eleam), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
11.7%
(06:11) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #86 T.Shettron caught at ULL45, for 20 yards to the ULL29 (#9 L.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
14.7%
(05:45) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #1 A.Burnette caught at ULL30, for 1 yard to the ULL28 (#44 J.St. Andre)Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+9
13.8%
(05:26) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL25, for 9 yards to the ULL19 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.; #8 K.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
13.8%
(04:54) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ULL13, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
13.7%
(04:21) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Burnette thrown to ULL15 QB hurried by #2 A.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+1
11.1%
(04:14) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 1 yard gain to the ULL12 (#41 C.Edwards; #2 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+12
30.4%
(03:44) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:44, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:5881% → 84%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.9%
(03:42) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield rush left for 1 yard gain to the ULL26 (#11 E.Oguns; #21 Z.Hill)Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
18.3%
(03:39) Shotgun #24 S.Blanco rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ULL30 (#24 A.Jackson Jr.; #16 T.Rogers)Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
16.9%
(03:35) Shotgun #4 T.Chaney rush right for 0 yards to the ULL30 (#16 T.Rogers; #1 S.Fongang)Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
15.9%
(02:42) #49 M.Golding punt 37 yards to the TECH33 #3 D.Latulas return 1 yard to the TECH34 (#19 L.Green; #26 K.Wilson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:5225% → 82%
Q4 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
24.8%
(02:40) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete deep middle to #11 J.Mickens thrown to ULL46Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+23
24.3%
(02:38) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL50, for 23 yards to the ULL43 (#24 L.Bates; #8 K.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
30.1%
(02:09) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short left to #11 J.Mickens caught at ULL40, for 4 yards to the ULL39 (#8 K.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+10
28.7%
(01:57) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #6 M.Calwise Jr. caught at ULL36, for 10 yards to the ULL29 (#11 B.Gordon Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
32.4%
(01:57) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush right for 9 yards gain to the ULL20 (#37 H.Kidder), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+6
32.3%
(01:47) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass incomplete short middle to #86 T.Shettron thrown to ULL12 PENALTY ULL Pass Interference (#21 M.Eleam) 6 yards from ULL20 to ULL14, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
33.0%
(01:43) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush middle for 4 yards gain to the ULL10 (#9 L.Williams; #21 M.Eleam)Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
30.9%
(01:15) Shotgun #1 A.Burnette rush right for 3 yards gain to the ULL07 (#41 C.Edwards; #2 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
81.6%
(00:45) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL00, for 7 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46, 1ST DOWN #5 B.Baker rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22INT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1230% → 27%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
(00:39) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep left to #4 T.Chaney thrown to TECH30Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
(00:39) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass incomplete deep left to #6 S.Sampson Jr. thrown to ULL45Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
72.8%
(00:33) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass intercepted by #0 J.Mcrae at ULL45 #0 J.Mcrae return 5 yards to the ULL40, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
86.9%
(00:24) Kneel down by #5 B.Baker at ULL41 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:46
(00:45) Shotgun #5 B.Baker pass complete short middle to #84 E.Finley caught at ULL00, for 7 yards to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:46, 1ST DOWN #5 B.Baker rush attempt failed
+50.8
TD · Q4 11:34
(11:36) Shotgun #7 L.Winfield pass complete deep left to #9 K.Wade caught at TECH10, for 45 yards to the TECH00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:34, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Sterner kick attempt good (H: #49 M.Golding, LS: #54 C.Kraft)
-21
TD · Q4 3:44
(03:44) Shotgun #5 B.Baker rush middle for 12 yards gain to the ULL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:44, 1ST DOWN #31 H.Rioux kick attempt good (H: #29 L.Matthews, LS: #69 T.Sims)
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com