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LIB

Liberty 13 at James Madison 20

JMU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Bridgeforth Stadium
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Win probability · JMU
modelJMU aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playJMU scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:43 · #49 S.Crossan punt 38 yards to the JMU01
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 113Home team on offense+12.9Pregame prior+4.1Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Time remaining+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 8:57: #42 C.Reeves field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera), clock 08:57 — LIB win probability +2.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 5:57: #5 M.Suarez field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel), clock 05:57 — JMU win probability +5.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:50: No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short left to #3 C.Scott caught at LU 03, for 5 yards to the LU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel) — JMU win probability +6.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Chase Reeves 42 Yd Field Goal — LIB win probability +3.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:01: Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at JMU04, for 34 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:33, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera) — LIB win probability +12.0 pts (now 22%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:39LIB 4th & 8 at JMU 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 1 at JMU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−1.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    29.9%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:57LIB 4th & 8 at JMU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:57JMU 4th & 4 at LIB 28, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%−0.3
    60% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:50LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00LIB 4th & 10 at JMU 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.7%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:11JMU 4th & 14 at LIB 14, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−7.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:26JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 38, up 11
    Close callPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:43LIB 4th & 15 at JMU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:31JMU 4th & 2 at JMU 9, up 11
    Close callPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:40LIB 4th & 6 at JMU 11, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:01JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 17, up 11
    Close callPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:25JMU 4th & 11 at JMU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:16LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%−4.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 4:50JMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 6:2137% → 35%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 0 yards to the LU 31 (#6 D.Kelly)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+10
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #0 J.Coleman caught at LU 26, for 10 yards to the LU 41 (#23 K.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 4 yards gain to the LU 45 (#24 J.Harvey)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
63.3%
PENALTY LU False Start (#56 C.Williams) 5 yards from LU 45 to LU 40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+6
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #87 L.Johnson, Jr. caught at LU 46, for 6 yards to the LU 46 (#2 N.Jackson)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+11
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #9 B.Randolph caught at JMU43, for 11 yards to the JMU43, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 1 yard gain to the JMU42 (#98 T.Schmidt)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #7 P.Jones caught at JMU42, for 0 yards to the JMU42 (#14 K.Flowe)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+1
63.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU41 (#17 D.Royster; #31 S.Gathers)Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
65.0%
#49 S.Crossan punt 41 yards to the JMU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:1665% → 68%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
65.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 6 yards gain to the JMU26 (#94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
65.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU29 (#11 L.Payne)Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
65.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU32 (#8 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
65.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass incomplete short left to #8 J.Harrison thrown to JMU36 broken up by #2 J.MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
65.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush right for 11 yards gain to the JMU43 (#1 D.Farrar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU46 (#9 D.Spurlock)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
65.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 8 yards gain to the LU 46 (#1 D.Farrar; #8 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
65.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short right to #3 C.Scott caught at LU 43, for 3 yards to the LU 43 (#0 D.Hopkins)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+8
65.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush right for 8 yards gain to the LU 35 (#1 D.Farrar; #33 A.Vaughan), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LU Personal Foul (#33 A.Vaughan) 15 yards from LU 35 to LU 20, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
65.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LU 16 (#17 J.Davis)Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+14
65.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass incomplete short right to #12 Z.Collins thrown to LU 00 PENALTY LU Pass Interference (#21 A.McShane) 14 yards from LU 16 to LU 02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+5
65.8%
PENALTY JMU False Start (#73 E.Bushong) 5 yards from LU 02 to LU 07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
65.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 0 yards to the LU 07 (#91 M.Floyde; #33 A.Vaughan)Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
67.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush right for 7 yards gain to the LU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:23 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3FG
20 plays · 62 yds · 10:2634% → 37%
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU 28 (#15 J.Hooten; #88 K.Bush)Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
66.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush left for 8 yards gain to the LU 36 (#24 J.Harvey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
66.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU 37 (#2 N.Jackson)Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+7
66.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #48 C.Ryan caught at LU 44, for 7 yards to the LU 44 (#7 R.McWilliams)Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+3
65.7%
(01:52) Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU 47 (#2 N.Jackson; #93 M.McMullin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
65.7%
(01:05) Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush left for 0 yards to the LU 47 (#5 K.Roberts)Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+8
66.2%
(00:35) Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush middle for 8 yards gain to the JMU45 fumbled by #5 D.Purdie at JMU48 forced by #24 J.Harvey recovered by LU #61 A.Fenimore at JMU45, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
65.8%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU44 (#8 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
66.4%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU43 (#17 D.Royster; #8 A.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
65.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Jackson thrown to JMU33, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (#14 K.Flowe) 12 yards from JMU43 to JMU31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
65.0%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JMU26 (#14 K.Flowe; #8 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
64.8%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JMU24 (#93 M.McMullin; #15 J.Hooten)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+9
65.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #87 L.Johnson, Jr. caught at JMU24, for 9 yards to the JMU15 (#24 J.Harvey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
64.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JMU08 (#15 J.Hooten)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 8
-3
64.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 3 yards loss to the JMU11 (#23 K.Willis)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
65.6%
PENALTY LU False Start (#53 A.Birchmeier) 5 yards from JMU11 to JMU16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+3
65.8%
Shotgun #13 J.Henderson rush right for 3 yards gain to the JMU13 (#8 A.Thomas)Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
63.4%
#42 C.Reeves field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera), clock 08:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:0065% → 71%
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
64.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JMU36 (#1 D.Farrar; #13 J.Vessel)Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+30
64.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete deep middle to #0 C.Keller caught at LU 41, for 30 yards to the LU 34 (#0 D.Hopkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
66.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush right for 1 yard gain to the LU 33 (#0 D.Hopkins) PENALTY JMU Holding (#71 D.Rawls) 10 yards from LU 34 to LU 44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+2
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short left to #11 N.Grevious caught at LU 45, for 2 yards to the LU 42 (#21 A.McShane)Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+7
65.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 7 yards gain to the LU 35 (#0 D.Hopkins)Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+7
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short right to #3 C.Scott caught at LU 28, for 7 yards to the LU 28 (#21 A.McShane)Similar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+46
71.0%
#5 M.Suarez field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel), clock 05:57Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0730% → 28%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
70.0%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU 26 (#88 K.Bush)Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
70.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #10 J.Monteiro thrown to LU 28 QB hurried by #13 E.Willor Jr.Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
70.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete deep right to #3 J.Person thrown to JMU50Similar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+4
71.7%
#49 S.Crossan punt 45 yards to the JMU29 #17 M.Scott return 4 yards to the JMU33 (#5 E.Hopkins)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 0:0071% → 80%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
71.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Wisloski rush right for 3 yards gain to the JMU36 (#30 E.Crisp)Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+51
72.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 S.Cromwell rush middle for 51 yards gain to the LU 13 (#9 D.Spurlock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
73.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 S.Cromwell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU 10 (#0 D.Hopkins)Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 10
0
73.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 S.Cromwell rush middle for 0 yards to the LU 10 (#21 A.McShane)Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+8
72.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short right to #10 B.Wisloski caught at LU 02, for 8 yards to the LU 02, out of bounds at LU 02, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
73.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #34 S.Cromwell rush middle for 3 yards loss to the LU 05 (#8 B.Williams; #1 D.Farrar)Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short left to #3 C.Scott caught at LU 03, for 5 yards to the LU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 1:5320% → 22%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
79.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Jackson thrown to LU 27 broken up by #23 K.Willis PENALTY JMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#26 J.Studio) 15 yards from LU 25 to LU 40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
79.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush right for 1 yard loss to the LU 39 (#15 J.Hooten)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+21
79.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep right to #9 B.Randolph caught at JMU40, for 21 yards to the JMU40 (#23 K.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
77.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #3 J.Person caught at JMU26, for 16 yards to the JMU24 (#23 K.Willis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
76.6%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU21 (#6 D.Kelly)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+5
76.5%
PENALTY LU False Start (#53 A.Birchmeier) 5 yards from JMU21 to JMU26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+2
78.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #4 K.Davis caught at JMU28, for 2 yards to the JMU24 (#23 K.Willis)Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 24
0
80.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete deep left to #9 B.Randolph thrown to JMU00 QB hurried by #17 D.RoysterSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 24
+42
78.5%
Chase Reeves 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 3:4178% → 76%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
77.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JMU46 (#1 D.Farrar)Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+2
77.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short left to #12 Z.Collins caught at JMU48, for 2 yards to the JMU48 (#4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+18
76.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short left to #12 Z.Collins caught at LU 34, for 18 yards to the LU 34 (#0 D.Hopkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
78.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass incomplete short middle to #12 Z.Collins thrown to LU 25 PENALTY LU Pass Interference (#0 D.Hopkins) 12 yards from LU 34 to LU 22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
78.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush right for 3 yards loss to the LU 25 (#8 B.Williams)Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+15
77.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short right to #11 N.Grevious caught at LU 20, for 15 yards to the LU 10 (#0 D.Hopkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+15
78.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman rush right for 7 yards gain to the LU 03 (#2 J.Marshall; #8 B.Williams) PENALTY JMU Personal Foul (#12 Z.Collins) 15 yards from LU 10 to LU 25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
0
77.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass incomplete short left to #6 G.Pettaway thrown to LU 28Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
+11
77.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short left to #11 N.Grevious caught at LU 20, for 11 yards to the LU 14 (#13 J.Vessel)Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
76.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass incomplete short left to #43 M.Halbert thrown to LU 00 broken up by #2 J.MarshallSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
75.9%
#5 M.Suarez field goal attempt from 32 yards GOOD (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel), clock 11:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:2421% → 21%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #0 J.Coleman caught at LU 21, for 4 yards to the LU 29 (#23 K.Willis)Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
78.6%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LU 31 (#88 K.Bush)Similar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
79.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Jackson thrown to LU 37 broken up by #6 D.KellySimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 4
OPP 0
0
78.6%
#49 S.Crossan punt 37 yards to the JMU32 fair catch by #17 M.Scott at JMU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2181% → 81%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
81.2%
PENALTY JMU False Start (#71 D.Rawls) 5 yards from JMU32 to JMU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
81.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass incomplete short left to #6 G.Pettaway thrown to JMU27Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+4
80.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JMU31 (#33 A.Vaughan)Similar
Q3 9:47
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+7
80.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JMU38 (#5 E.Hopkins)Similar
Q3 8:26
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
81.1%
#11 P.Rea punt 54 yards to the LU 08 PENALTY LU Illegal Block in Back (#21 A.McShane) 4 yards from LU 08 to LU 04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:4319% → 15%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
80.6%
PENALTY LU False Start (#7 P.Jones) 2 yards from LU 04 to LU 02. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 12
OWN 2
+5
80.6%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LU 07 (#1 D.Minkah; #8 A.Thomas)Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+15
80.9%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete deep right to #2 M.Jackson thrown to LU 40 PENALTY JMU Pass Interference (#27 J.Olford) 15 yards from LU 07 to LU 22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+33
80.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep right to #3 J.Person caught at JMU50, for 33 yards to the JMU45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
77.9%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush right for 7 yards gain to the JMU38 (#31 S.Gathers; #42 J.Kouame-Yao)Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
77.5%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush right for 4 yards gain to the JMU34 (#16 T.McGill), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
76.9%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at LU 00, for 34 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:22 PENALTY LU Holding (#51 D.Geth) 10 yards from JMU34 to JMU44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
78.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #88 Z.Wimbush thrown to JMU30 broken up by #16 T.McGillSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+10
80.1%
(05:17) Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 10 yards gain to the JMU34 (#16 T.McGill), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+5
79.5%
PENALTY LU False Start (#53 A.Birchmeier) 5 yards from JMU34 to JMU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
81.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Copeland thrown to JMU20Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
84.8%
#49 S.Crossan punt 38 yards to the JMU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 2:1285% → 84%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
84.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU04 (#97 M.Jarvis)Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 4
-1
84.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 1 yard loss to the JMU03 (#23 M.Gunn)Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+6
83.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short right to #3 C.Scott caught at JMU08, for 6 yards to the JMU09 (#5 E.Hopkins)Similar
Q3 1:31
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+11
84.4%
#11 P.Rea punt 44 yards to the LU 47 #2 M.Jackson return 11 yards to the JMU42 (#2 N.Jackson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13DOWNS
14 plays · 31 yds · 4:5118% → 12%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.0%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush left for 3 yards gain to the JMU39 (#5 K.Roberts; #26 J.Studio)Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+5
82.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #88 Z.Wimbush caught at JMU35, for 5 yards to the JMU34 (#31 S.Gathers)Similar
Q3 1:31
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+7
82.0%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JMU27 (#24 J.Harvey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
80.9%
PENALTY LU False Start (#51 D.Geth) 5 yards from JMU27 to JMU32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 32
-11
81.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right thrown to JMU29 QB hurried by #26 J.Studio PENALTY LU Intentional Grounding (#5 D.Purdie)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-11
82.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete shortSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 26
OPP 43
+18
83.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #2 M.Jackson caught at JMU25, for 18 yards to the JMU25 (#31 S.Gathers; #23 K.Willis)Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+10
85.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #88 Z.Wimbush caught at JMU18, for 10 yards to the JMU15 (#6 D.Kelly), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
83.6%
Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JMU13 (#5 K.Roberts)Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
83.6%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush left for 2 yards gain to the JMU11 (#6 D.Kelly)Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
84.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right thrown to JMU10 broken up by #31 S.GathersSimilar
Q4 11:40
4TH & 6
OPP 11
0
88.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Person thrown to JMU05, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3989% → 91%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
89.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 N.Herman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU14 (#33 A.Vaughan)Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+3
89.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JMU17 (#1 D.Farrar)Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
88.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 N.Herman rush right for 0 yards to the JMU17 (#3 A.Whitner; #94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
90.7%
#11 P.Rea punt 44 yards to the LU 39 #2 M.Jackson return 0 yards to the LU 39 (#24 J.Harvey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 15TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 0:0010% → 22%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
89.6%
Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush right for 4 yards gain to the LU 43 (#2 N.Jackson; #98 T.Schmidt)Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 43
0
89.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Copeland thrown to JMU45Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+23
90.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #0 J.Coleman caught at LU 49, for 23 yards to the JMU34 (#25 T.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
78.0%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at JMU04, for 34 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:33, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:0888% → 88%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
88.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass complete short right to #11 N.Grevious caught at JMU36, for 11 yards to the JMU36, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
88.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 1 yard loss to the JMU35 (#33 A.Vaughan)Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
88.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass incomplete short middle to #3 C.Scott thrown to JMU45 broken up by #1 D.Farrar QB hurried by #8 B.WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-22
88.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass intercepted by #7 I.Guy at JMU36 #7 I.Guy return for loss of 7 yards to the JMU43 (#3 C.Scott) PENALTY LU Pass Interference offsetting JMU Illegal Use Of Hands offsetting. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
88.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 C.Coleman pass incomplete short left to #0 C.Keller thrown to JMU40Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
88.2%
#11 P.Rea punt 45 yards to the LU 20 fair catch by #2 M.Jackson at LU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 5:0914% → 10%
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
86.1%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush right for 6 yards gain to the LU 26 (#93 M.McMullin; #24 J.Harvey)Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
84.9%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU 29 (#93 M.McMullin)Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
85.1%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush right for 2 yards gain to the LU 31 (#24 J.Harvey; #8 A.Thomas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-11
84.8%
Shotgun Liberty rush middle for 11 yards loss to the LU 20 fumbled by Liberty at LU 31 recovered by LU #1 D.Copeland at LU 20, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 21
OWN 20
+21
86.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at LU 38, for 21 yards to the LU 41 (#14 K.Flowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
83.7%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LU 45 (#6 D.Kelly)Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
82.7%
Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU 48 (#2 N.Jackson)Similar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+1
83.1%
Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU 49 (#55 R.Lovelace)Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
89.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #87 L.Johnson, Jr. thrown to JMU40 broken up by #24 J.Harvey, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:5496% → 97%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
95.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush left for 23 yards gain to the LU 26 (#33 A.Vaughan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
96.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LU 20 (#0 D.Hopkins)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
96.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU 17 (#33 A.Vaughan; #94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+6
97.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 G.Pettaway rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LU 11 (#91 M.Floyde; #4 M.Pollard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:01
Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at JMU04, for 34 yards to the JMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:33, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)
-12
TD · Q2 4:50
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Evans pass complete short left to #3 C.Scott caught at LU 03, for 5 yards to the LU 00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53 #5 M.Suarez kick attempt good (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel)
+6.5
FG · Q2 5:57
#5 M.Suarez field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #11 P.Rea, LS: #47 M.Dietzel), clock 05:57
+5.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com