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GASO

Georgia Southern 27 at Jacksonville State 31

JXST
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · AmFirst Stadium
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Win probability · JXST
modelJXST aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playJXST scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:53 · #87 C.Donaghy punt 42 yards to the Jax St50 fair catch by #19 J.Dallas at Jax St50
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior+10.8Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:50: No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush right for 2 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50 #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn) — GASO win probability +14.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:32: Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:32 #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn) — GASO win probability +12.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:45: No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #11 D.Johnson caught at GS03, for 18 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:45, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) — JXST win probability +10.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:17: No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 26 yards gain to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) — JXST win probability +27.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 8:16: #25 A.Smith punt 37 yards to the Jax St25 #1 C.Nix return 75 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:16 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #41 C.Lewis, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) — JXST win probability +30.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
JXST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 7:08GASO 4th & 4 at JXST 4, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    38.5%−1.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:59JXST 4th & 3 at JXST 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:39GASO 4th & 7 at JXST 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:53JXST 4th & 5 at JXST 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:09JXST 4th & 1 at GASO 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%−1.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    34.3%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:03GASO 4th & 3 at GASO 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:07JXST 4th & 5 at GASO 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.2%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00JXST 4th & 3 at GASO 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−2.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:06GASO 4th & 5 at JXST 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.6%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    59.8%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:27JXST 4th & 28 at JXST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−3.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:50GASO 4th & 11 at GASO 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−4.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:16GASO 4th & 10 at GASO 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%−3.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
JXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:30GASO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:50GASO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:09JXST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:32GASO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:45JXST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:17JXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:16JXST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GASODrive 1FG
16 plays · 71 yds · 7:4236% → 37%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
64.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 30 yards gain to the Jax St45 (#8 J.Brooks), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
64.4%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #6 D.Mbadinga caught at Jax St46, for 5 yards to the Jax St40 (#93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-1
64.3%
(14:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Jax St41 (#13 J.Cruz)Similar
Q1 13:16
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+11
64.2%
(13:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #5 A.Taylor caught at Jax St31, for 11 yards to the Jax St30 (#3 T.Fegans; #40 W.O'Steen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
64.1%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush left for 2 yards gain to the Jax St28 (#40 W.O'Steen), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-2
64.0%
(12:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush right for 2 yards loss to the Jax St30 (#9 J.Carr)Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+10
64.0%
(11:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #18 J.Ware caught at Jax St32, for 10 yards to the Jax St20 (#5 R.Billings), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
63.7%
(11:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St15 (#99 A.Rumph; #53 I.Mitchell)Similar
Q1 10:28
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
63.5%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St12 (#15 T.Floyd; #16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q1 9:51
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
63.6%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St07 (#16 Q.Hood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
63.3%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Jax St05 (#0 M.Butler; #92 M.Hood)Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
63.0%
(08:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #19 J.Dallas caught at Jax St06, for 1 yard loss to the Jax St06 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
63.2%
PENALTY GS False Start (#51 M.Williams) 5 yards from Jax St06 to Jax St11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
63.2%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #19 J.Dallas caught at Jax St14, for 7 yards to the Jax St04 (#40 W.O'Steen; #9 J.Carr)Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
62.9%
(07:08) #95 T.Bryant field goal attempt from 22 yards GOOD (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn), clock 07:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0063% → 62%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
63.0%
(07:06) Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Jax St23 (#18 M.Stroud; #94 E.Fears)Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
62.8%
(06:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at Jax St33, for 10 yards to the Jax St33, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
62.7%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Jax St32 (#4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q1 4:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
61.9%
(05:06) #87 C.Donaghy punt 48 yards to the GS20 fair catch by #19 J.Dallas at GS20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0937% → 38%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.8%
(04:58) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #6 D.Mbadinga caught at GS18, for 2 yards to the GS22 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
62.6%
(04:29) Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #5 A.Taylor thrown to GS29 QB hurried by #35 A.ThompsonSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
62.9%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #19 J.Dallas caught at GS26, for 15 yards to the GS37 (#1 C.Nix; #3 T.Fegans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
62.0%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #6 D.Mbadinga caught at GS35, for 11 yards to the GS48 (#53 I.Mitchell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
61.5%
(03:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson sacked for loss of 5 yards to the GS43 (#44 K.Perry, #0 M.Butler)Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
62.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #18 J.Ware thrown to Jax St40Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+8
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #6 D.Mbadinga caught at GS40, for 8 yards to the Jax St49 (#31 T.Lyles)Similar
Q1 1:39
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
61.7%
#25 A.Smith punt 46 yards to the Jax St03, out of bounds at Jax St03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4661% → 60%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
61.4%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St04 (#14 R.Myles Jr.; #2 A.Sears)Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+5
61.3%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St09 (#2 A.Sears)Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 4
OWN 9
-1
60.8%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Jax St08 (#1 B.Tyson; #57 L.Bullard)Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 5
OWN 8
0
60.0%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 42 yards to the Jax St50 fair catch by #19 J.Dallas at Jax St50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 5TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3041% → 47%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
59.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #2 A.Hollins thrown to Jax St47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+24
59.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 24 yards gain to the Jax St26 (#5 R.Billings), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
58.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Jax St19 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
58.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #5 A.Taylor thrown to Jax St00Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
59.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St14 (#7 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
58.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St10 (#97 M.Wright)Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+10
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 10 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:30, 1ST DOWN #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
52.5%
Shotgun #17 J.Williams rush right for 2 yards gain to the Jax St27 fumbled by #17 J.Williams at Jax St27 forced by #22 C.Calicut recovered by GS #1 B.Tyson at Jax St27 #1 B.Tyson return 5 yards to the Jax St22 (#12 C.Creel)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 7TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2647% → 62%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
52.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete deep right to #87 R.Helms thrown to Jax St00 broken up by #1 C.NixSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
52.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #19 J.Dallas caught at Jax St22, for 4 yards to the Jax St18 (#93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
53.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #19 J.Dallas caught at Jax St11, for 9 yards to the Jax St09 (#0 M.Butler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
52.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St06 (#9 J.Carr)Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
52.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St02 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
38.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush right for 2 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50 #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4142% → 49%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
42.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #9 R.Johnson thrown to GS40 PENALTY GS Pass Interference (#9 F.Davies) 15 yards from Jax St25 to Jax St40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+38
43.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep left to #3 D.Cannon caught at GS33, for 38 yards to the GS22, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
44.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 4 yards gain to the GS18 (#12 T.Hill Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+1
44.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at GS15, for 1 yard to the GS17 (#31 C.Gamble)Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+4
44.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #30 L.Gilbert caught at GS15, for 4 yards to the GS13 (#7 N.Mangham), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+13
49.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #6 J.Likely caught at GS02, for 13 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:09, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5854% → 54%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
46.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #19 J.Dallas caught at GS36, for 3 yards to the GS42 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
46.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the GS46 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
46.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the GS46 (#93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
46.1%
#25 A.Smith punt 46 yards to the Jax St08 fair catch by #1 C.Nix at Jax St08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10FG
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5647% → 51%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+42
46.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep left to #11 D.Johnson caught at Jax St50, for 42 yards to the Jax St50 (#31 C.Gamble), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GS Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
50
+16
49.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #9 R.Johnson caught at GS42, for 16 yards to the GS34 (#14 R.Myles Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
50.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #9 R.Johnson caught at GS22, for 12 yards to the GS22, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
50.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 D.Cannon caught at GS25, for 4 yards to the GS18 (#21 C.Thompson; #14 R.Myles Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
50.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #6 J.Likely thrown to GS00Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+1
49.5%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GS17 (#4 A.Bynum; #90 O.Brown)Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
51.3%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 02:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3253% → 69%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the GS31 (#53 I.Mitchell)Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+14
46.0%
Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #6 D.Mbadinga caught at GS24, for 14 yards to the GS45 (#2 M.Joseph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
45.0%
Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #87 R.Helms caught at Jax St42, for 17 yards to the Jax St38 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
44.4%
Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #2 A.Hollins thrown to Jax St36Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
44.5%
Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete deep middle to #2 A.Hollins thrown to Jax St10 broken up by #8 J.Brooks PENALTY Jax St Pass Interference (#8 J.Brooks) 15 yards from Jax St38 to Jax St23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
44.1%
Shotgun #20 T.Cummings rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St19 (#8 J.Brooks; #0 M.Butler) PENALTY Jax St Offside (#8 J.Brooks) 5 yards from Jax St23 to Jax St18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+3
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St15 (#53 I.Mitchell; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+13
44.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #16 J.Samuel caught at Jax St10, for 13 yards to the Jax St02 (#40 W.O'Steen), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.1%
Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:32 #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0036% → 37%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
35.7%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #22 L.Farrington thrown to Jax St30 broken up by #4 A.BynumSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 7 yards gain to the Jax St32 (#1 B.Tyson)Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
36.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St37 (#9 F.Davies), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1535% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.5%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #3 D.Cannon thrown to Jax St45 QB hurried by #31 C.GambleSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St25, for 6 yards to the Jax St31 (#31 C.Gamble)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
34.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St34, for 3 yards to the Jax St34, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St35, for 4 yards to the Jax St35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
35.2%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 3 yards gain to the Jax St37, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
35.5%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #30 L.Gilbert caught at Jax St50, for 19 yards to the GS44 (#6 J.Jones) PENALTY Jax St Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#44 J.Scissum) 5 yards from Jax St37 to Jax St32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
34.4%
Shotgun #6 J.Likely rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Jax St38 (#6 J.Jones)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+8
35.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #5 D.Gentry caught at Jax St37, for 8 yards to the Jax St46 (#17 J.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
36.6%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #6 J.Likely caught at Jax St45, for 3 yards to the Jax St49 (#6 J.Jones; #2 A.Sears), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
37.1%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #5 D.Gentry thrown to GS48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
36.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St50 (#14 R.Myles Jr.)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
50
+6
36.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #5 D.Gentry caught at GS44, for 6 yards to the GS44 (#17 J.Jackson)Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+12
36.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 12 yards gain to the GS32, out of bounds at GS32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
37.8%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush right for 14 yards gain to the GS18 (#7 N.Mangham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
48.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #11 D.Johnson caught at GS03, for 18 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:45, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 14FG
11 plays · 61 yds · 5:3361% → 71%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
39.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 5 yards gain to the GS19 (#0 M.Butler)Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+1
39.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush right for 1 yard gain to the GS20 (#16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+11
40.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #87 R.Helms caught at GS25, for 11 yards to the GS31 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
38.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 12 yards gain to the GS43 (#40 W.O'Steen), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
36.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short middle to #87 R.Helms caught at GS42, for 8 yards to the Jax St49 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+19
35.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 19 yards gain to the Jax St30 (#3 T.Fegans), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
35.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #19 J.Dallas caught at Jax St26, for 6 yards to the Jax St24 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
35.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St23 (#92 M.Hood)Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-2
36.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 2 yards loss to the Jax St25 (#2 M.Joseph; #31 T.Lyles)Similar
Q3 2:06
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+43
29.1%
#95 T.Bryant field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn), clock 02:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · -5 yds · 2:3929% → 24%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
28.6%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #17 R.Jones caught at Jax St20, for 7 yards to the Jax St32 (#31 C.Gamble), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
29.9%
Shotgun #17 J.Williams rush left for 6 yards gain to the Jax St38 (#14 R.Myles Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
30.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #3 D.Cannon caught at Jax St35, for 3 yards to the Jax St41 (#22 C.Calicut), out of bounds PENALTY Jax St Personal Foul (#11 D.Johnson) 15 yards from Jax St41 to Jax St26Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 22
OWN 26
-1
28.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 1 yard loss to the Jax St25 (#22 C.Calicut)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 25
0
26.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to GS30 broken up by #7 N.ManghamSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep left to #11 D.Johnson thrown to GS48Similar
Q4 14:38
4TH & 23
OWN 25
+5
23.7%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 48 yards to the GS27, out of bounds at GS27 PENALTY Jax St Illegal Formation 5 yards from Jax St25 to Jax St20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 28
OWN 20
0
23.5%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 67 yards to the GS13 #19 J.Dallas return 0 yards to the GS13 (#17 R.Jones) PENALTY GS Illegal Block in Back 6 yards from GS13 to GS07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:3772% → 74%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
28.4%
PENALTY GS False Start (#18 J.Ware) 3 yards from GS07 to GS04. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+6
28.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush middle for 6 yards gain to the GS10 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 7
OWN 10
-4
28.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #35 T.Todd rush middle for 4 yards loss to the GS06 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 11
OWN 6
0
29.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #4 A.Greene Jr. thrown to GS10 broken up by #1 C.Nix PENALTY GS Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q4 12:50
4TH & 11
OWN 6
0
26.3%
#25 A.Smith punt 47 yards to the Jax St47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:3327% → 55%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
27.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete deep right to #17 R.Jones thrown to GS17 PENALTY GS Pass Interference (#20 J.Brown) 15 yards from Jax St47 to GS38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
28.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 4 yards gain to the GS34 (#1 B.Tyson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
30.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #22 L.Farrington thrown to GS29Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+8
27.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush right for 8 yards gain to the GS26 (#43 E.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
54.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 26 yards gain to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 18PUNT TD
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0158% → 28%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.9%
Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 6 yards gain to the GS31 (#31 T.Lyles; #40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
39.9%
Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 7 yards gain to the GS38 (#40 W.O'Steen; #6 K.Cook), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
39.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short right to #16 J.Samuel caught at GS31, for 1 yard loss to the GS37 (#5 R.Billings)Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+1
41.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 J.Samuel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GS38 (#0 M.Butler)Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
41.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short middle to #5 A.Taylor thrown to GS45 broken up by #40 W.O'SteenSimilar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+75
71.8%
#25 A.Smith punt 37 yards to the Jax St25 #1 C.Nix return 75 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:16 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #41 C.Lewis, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19INT
18 plays · 62 yds · 6:2430% → 30%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
69.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #2 A.Hollins caught at GS24, for 1 yard loss to the GS24 (#93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q4 8:16
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
70.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. caught at GS29, for 5 yards to the GS29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
74.3%
PENALTY Jax St Delay Of Game 5 yards from GS29 to GS34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.0%
#7 M.Johnson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the GS36 (#16 Q.Hood), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.1%
Shotgun #19 J.Dallas rush left for 6 yards gain to the GS42 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
69.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GS45 (#40 W.O'Steen; #7 M.Woods)Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
69.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GS48 (#28 C.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
69.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete short left to #4 A.Greene Jr. caught at Jax St47, for 5 yards to the Jax St47 (#3 T.Fegans)Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+2
68.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Jax St45 (#2 M.Joseph)Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+1
68.8%
#6 D.Mbadinga rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Jax St44 (#45 M.Rosa)Similar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+5
70.8%
PENALTY GS False Start 5 yards from Jax St44 to Jax St49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+5
78.1%
Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Dallas thrown to Jax St44 PENALTY Jax St Pass Interference (#6 K.Cook) 5 yards from Jax St49 to Jax St44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
73.3%
Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass complete deep left to #18 J.Ware caught at Jax St19, for 26 yards to the Jax St18 (#7 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short right to #13 K.Phillips thrown to Jax St00Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
71.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass incomplete short left to #18 J.Ware thrown to Jax St00 broken up by #3 T.Fegans PENALTY Jax St Offside (#44 K.Perry) 5 yards from Jax St18 to Jax St13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
70.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 M.Johnson pass intercepted by #31 T.Lyles at Jax St15 QB hurried by #40 W.O'Steen #31 T.Lyles return 0 yards to the Jax St15, out of bounds at Jax St15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20END OF HALF
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:1390% → 91%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
90.2%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St18 (#14 R.Myles Jr.)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
91.0%
Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Jax St23 (#6 J.Jones; #4 A.Bynum)Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+4
91.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Jax St27 (#14 R.Myles Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
91.8%
Kneel down by Jacksonville St. at Jax St25 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 12
OWN 25
-2
91.3%
Kneel down by Jacksonville St. at Jax St23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:16
#25 A.Smith punt 37 yards to the Jax St25 #1 C.Nix return 75 yards to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:16 #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove) #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #41 C.Lewis, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)
+30
TD · Q4 11:17
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 26 yards gain to the GS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)
+27.4
TD · Q2 9:50
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 W.Bryan rush right for 2 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:50 #95 T.Bryant kick attempt good (H: #25 A.Smith, LS: #41 C.Glenn)
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com