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MUR

Murray State 14 at Middle Tennessee 38

MTSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+2.8MTSU 99.0%(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5T.Campbell rush middle for 3 yardsgain to the MSU39 fumbled by #5T.Campbell at MSU36 forced by #13A.Taylor recovered by MTSU #0 K.Woodsat MSU39 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #91D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)AWAY 14 - HOME 38 · Q4 13:45
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:45 · (13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU39 fumbled by #5 T.Campbell at MSU36 forced by #13 A.Taylor recovered by MTSU #0 K.Woods at MSU39 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior+13.2Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+20.7Garbage-time factor+7.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9Time remaining+2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:18: (07:22) Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:18, 1ST DOWN #29 R.Devita kick attempt good (H: #19 S.Ashby, LS: #47 C.Ford) — MUR win probability +3.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:34: (03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano rush right for 22 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:34, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin) — MTSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:47: (04:57) Shotgun #30 J.Northington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:47 #29 R.Devita kick attempt good (H: #19 S.Ashby, LS: #47 C.Ford) — MUR win probability +6.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:53: (14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin) — MTSU win probability +4.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:45: (13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU39 fumbled by #5 T.Campbell at MSU36 forced by #13 A.Taylor recovered by MTSU #0 K.Woods at MSU39 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin) — MTSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4MUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:11MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:36MUR 4th & 13 at MUR 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:25MUR 4th & 21 at MUR 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:05MUR 4th & 3 at MUR 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59MTSU 4th & 5 at MUR 16, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    89.6%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:11MUR 4th & 1 at MTSU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:31MUR 4th & 8 at MTSU 46, down 14
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−<0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:02MUR 4th & 5 at MUR 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:17MTSU 4th & 4 at MUR 27, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.2%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−2.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:41MUR 4th & 3 at MTSU 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−1.6
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:52MTSU 4th & 2 at MUR 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.2%−0.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−3.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:46MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:22MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:18MUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:34MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:47MUR Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:53MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:45MTSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:2993% → 92%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+11
92.8%
(14:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU05, for 11 yards to the MTSU15 (#7 R.McCall; #1 K.Ingram), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
92.7%
(14:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MTSU13, for 2 yards to the MTSU17 (#26 R.Hemphill; #8 B.Esplin)Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+13
92.6%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 13 yards gain to the MTSU30 (#45 J.Varner; #15 J.Walker), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Personal Foul 15 yards from MTSU30 to MTSU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 21
OWN 34
+5
92.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #7 H.Wasson caught at MTSU35, for 5 yards to the MTSU39, out of bounds at MTSU39Similar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
92.5%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain (4) to the MTSU49 (#7 R.McCall; #15 J.Walker) PENALTY MTSU Personal Foul (#6 A.Jones) 15 yards from MTSU49 to MTSU34Similar
Q1 13:06
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+8
92.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU44, for 8 yards to the MTSU47 (#9 D.Rowsey; #12 T.Lewis II)Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
92.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left thrown to MSU49Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
92.0%
#92 A.Logan punt 53 yards to the MSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:358% → 8%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
91.9%
Shotgun #2 C.Shannon rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU21 (#22 G.Gaskins)Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
91.9%
Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU22 (#13 A.Taylor)Similar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
92.0%
Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass incomplete short middle to #8 J.Potter thrown to MSU27Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+5
92.0%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#3 D.Boykin) 5 yards from MSU22 to MSU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
91.7%
#19 S.Ashby punt 39 yards to the MTSU44 #10 J.Chestnut return 0 yards to the MTSU44, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 3:5092% → 92%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush right for 34 yards gain (13) to the MSU22 (#26 R.Hemphill) PENALTY MTSU Holding 10 yards from MSU43 to MTSU47Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 7
OWN 47
+12
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MSU41 (#1 K.Ingram), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#15 J.Walker) 15 yards from MSU41 to MSU26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
91.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #8 A.Martin Jr. caught at MSU22, for 5 yards to the MSU21, End Of Play PENALTY MTSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from MSU26 to MSU31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+3
91.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU28 (#8 B.Esplin)Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 12
OPP 28
-3
91.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #8 A.Martin Jr. caught at MSU31, for 3 yards loss to the MSU31 (#26 R.Hemphill)Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+21
91.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at MSU10, for 21 yards to the MSU10 (#9 D.Rowsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #85 N.Clifton caught at MSU00, for 10 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:46, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 2:129% → 9%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
(05:45) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU27 (#91 F.Hixon; #19 A.Singleton)Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.3%
(05:06) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush right for 0 yards to the MSU27 (#44 K.Call; #26 K.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
91.4%
(04:28) Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass complete short right to #12 T.Brown caught at MSU34, for 9 yards to the MSU36 (#24 C.Hall) PENALTY MSU Holding (#61 A.Shadid) 10 yards from MSU27 to MSU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-3
91.4%
(04:04) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 3 yards loss to the MSU14 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
91.3%
(03:33) #19 S.Ashby punt 39 yards to the MTSU47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:5591% → 93%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
91.4%
(03:25) No Huddle #9 T.Brown Jr. rush right for 16 yards gain to the MSU37 (#9 D.Rowsey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
91.3%
(02:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at MSU31, for 7 yards to the MSU30 (#26 R.Hemphill)Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+6
91.2%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #7 H.Wasson caught at MSU30, for 6 yards to the MSU24 (#12 T.Lewis II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
91.1%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep left to #88 T.Galloway thrown to MSU01Similar
Q1 1:04
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
91.1%
(01:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 D.Taylor rush right for 2 yards gain to the MSU22 (#15 J.Walker; #26 R.Hemphill)Similar
Q1 0:22
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+22
92.6%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #3 C.Lacy caught at MSU25, for 22 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:22, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:068% → 8%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
92.0%
(00:11) Shotgun #30 J.Northington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU17 (#22 G.Gaskins)Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
91.9%
(14:32) Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass complete short left to #1 D.Embry caught at MSU15, for 4 yards to the MSU21 (#11 J.Johnson; #0 K.Woods)Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 3
OWN 21
0
91.9%
(14:19) Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass incomplete short right to #30 J.Northington thrown to MSU20Similar
Q2 14:05
4TH & 3
OWN 21
-4
92.0%
(14:14) #19 S.Ashby punt 38 yards to the MTSU41 #3 C.Lacy return for loss of 4 yards to the MTSU37 (#96 J.Martin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 47 yds · 3:0393% → 92%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
92.5%
(14:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush left for 7 yards loss to the MTSU30 (#26 R.Hemphill; #12 T.Lewis II), out of bounds PENALTY MSU Personal Foul (#26 R.Hemphill) 15 yards from MTSU37 to MSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
92.7%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep left to #83 K.Perdue thrown to MSU28Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+27
92.7%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete deep left to #85 N.Clifton caught at MSU27, for 27 yards to the MSU21 (#7 R.McCall; #9 D.Rowsey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
92.7%
(12:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the MSU18 (#59 J.Biser; #25 A.McGill)Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
92.7%
(11:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short left to #7 H.Wasson thrown to MSU00Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+2
92.5%
(11:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #88 T.Galloway caught at MSU22, for 2 yards to the MSU16 (#25 A.McGill), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 5
OPP 16
0
92.3%
(11:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete short middle to #88 T.Galloway thrown to MSU00 broken up by #7 R.McCall, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 8TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:338% → 12%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
91.6%
(10:56) Shotgun #3 B.Wright rush right for 0 yards to the MSU16 (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson)Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
91.6%
(10:21) Shotgun #3 B.Wright rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU20 (#13 A.Taylor; #26 K.Smith)Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+23
91.8%
(09:44) Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass complete short left to #6 D.Howard caught at MSU39, for 23 yards to the MSU43 (#0 K.Woods), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
91.3%
(09:24) Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass incomplete short left to #6 D.Howard thrown to MSU50Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+8
91.3%
(09:17) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MTSU49 (#0 K.Woods)Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+1
91.0%
(08:42) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU48 (#13 A.Taylor; #95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
91.2%
(08:15) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU46 (#46 R.Johnson; #2 J.Lowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
90.9%
(07:34) Shotgun #2 C.Shannon pass incomplete short right to #13 T.Firestone thrown to MTSU42 QB hurried by #34 A.ClemonsSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
87.9%
(07:22) Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:18, 1ST DOWN #29 R.Devita kick attempt good (H: #19 S.Ashby, LS: #47 C.Ford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:3489% → 92%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
89.1%
(07:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush right for 22 yards gain to the MTSU47 (#15 J.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
89.8%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #3 C.Lacy caught at MTSU44, for 5 yards to the MSU48 (#1 K.Ingram; #12 T.Lewis II)Similar
Q2 5:48
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+20
89.8%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #3 C.Lacy caught at MSU50, for 20 yards to the MSU28 (#5 C.Crossno), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MSU Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
89.8%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MSU30, for 28 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:06 PENALTY MTSU Holding (#50 C.Moreno) 10 yards from MSU27 to MSU37Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 19
OPP 37
+13
89.4%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #8 A.Martin Jr. caught at MSU34, for 13 yards to the MSU24 (#3 D.Boykin), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
89.7%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU22 (#15 J.Walker; #44 J.Veasy)Similar
Q2 3:34
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
91.9%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano rush right for 22 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:34, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 2:439% → 8%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
91.4%
(03:20) Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU18 (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson)Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+6
91.5%
(02:44) Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU24 (#19 A.Singleton; #0 K.Woods)Similar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+9
91.3%
(02:24) Shotgun #4 J.Ogle rush right for 9 yards gain to the MSU33 (#11 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+19
91.2%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short right to #13 T.Firestone caught at MSU46, for 19 yards to the MTSU48 (#0 K.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
90.4%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass incomplete short right to #8 J.Potter thrown to MTSU35Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.8%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MTSU40 (#2 J.Lowe; #95 Z.Simpson-Smith) PENALTY MSU Illegal Shift 5 yards from MTSU48 to MSU47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+7
91.4%
(01:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short left to #8 J.Potter caught at MTSU48, for 7 yards to the MTSU46 (#26 K.Smith)Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
91.3%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass incomplete short right to #13 T.Firestone thrown to MTSU34Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
91.6%
(00:35) #19 S.Ashby punt 36 yards to the MTSU10 fair catch by #7 H.Wasson at MTSU10 PENALTY MTSU Holding (#13 A.Taylor) 5 yards from MTSU10 to MTSU05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:1392% → 93%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+19
91.5%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 19 yards gain to the MTSU24 (#2 T.Cline), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
92.8%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano rush right for 7 yards gain to the MTSU31 (#7 R.McCall), out of bounds PENALTY MTSU Holding (#71 Q.Butler) 10 yards from MTSU24 to MTSU14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+5
92.7%
(00:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MTSU19 (#9 D.Rowsey; #15 J.Walker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:528% → 7%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass incomplete short left to #13 T.Firestone thrown to MSU35 broken up by #13 A.TaylorSimilar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.6%
(14:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush left for 5 yards gain to the MSU30 (#2 J.Lowe)Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.4%
(14:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Howard thrown to MSU35 broken up by #46 R.JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
92.8%
(14:13) #19 S.Ashby punt 42 yards to the MTSU28 #3 C.Lacy return 13 yards to the MTSU41 (#3 D.Boykin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:3593% → 95%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
93.3%
(13:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU43 (#90 C.Daniels)Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+24
93.4%
(13:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short middle to #3 C.Lacy caught at MSU42, for 24 yards to the MSU33 (#25 A.McGill), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
93.4%
(12:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU27 (#9 D.Rowsey; #25 A.McGill)Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
93.5%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass incomplete deep left to #6 A.Jones thrown to MSU00Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
93.3%
(11:57) No Huddle #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU27 (#7 R.McCall)Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
94.5%
(11:22) #91 D.Bourgeois field goal attempt from 45 yards GOOD (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin), clock 11:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 14TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 6:176% → 12%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
94.4%
(11:11) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MSU28 (#94 J.Williams)Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
94.1%
(10:33) Shotgun #30 J.Northington rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU32 (#0 K.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
94.2%
(09:57) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU41 (#21 J.Hardy; #22 G.Gaskins)Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+8
94.0%
(09:16) Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU49 (#21 J.Hardy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.9%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short right to #9 M.Allen caught at MSU47, for 4 yards to the MTSU47 (#16 J.Thompson)Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
94.0%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MTSU45 (#90 J.Bodford)Similar
Q3 7:46
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
94.1%
PENALTY MSU False Start (#56 G.McLelland) 5 yards from MTSU45 to MTSU50. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 9
50
+6
94.8%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short left to #8 J.Potter caught at MTSU44, for 6 yards to the MTSU44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+8
94.8%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short right to #8 J.Potter caught at MTSU41, for 8 yards to the MTSU36 (#11 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
94.9%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short middle to #13 T.Firestone caught at MTSU20, for 23 yards to the MTSU13 (#19 A.Singleton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
94.4%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass incomplete short right to #13 T.Firestone thrown to MTSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MTSU Pass Interference (#21 J.Hardy) 5 yards from MTSU13 to MTSU08, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
94.4%
(05:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short middle to #1 D.Embry caught at MTSU14, for 7 yards to the MTSU01 (#19 A.Singleton)Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.3%
(04:57) Shotgun #30 J.Northington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:47 #29 R.Devita kick attempt good (H: #19 S.Ashby, LS: #47 C.Ford)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:3191% → 97%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
90.7%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #88 T.Galloway caught at MTSU32, for 7 yards to the MTSU36 (#26 R.Hemphill)Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+9
91.0%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short left to #1 M.Allen caught at MTSU39, for 9 yards to the MTSU45 (#1 K.Ingram), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
91.3%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush left for 26 yards gain to the MSU29 (#9 D.Rowsey), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
91.8%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain to the MSU22 (#26 R.Hemphill)Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
91.8%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU20 (#1 K.Ingram)Similar
Q3 1:38
3RD & 1
OPP 20
-1
91.4%
(01:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the MSU21 (#15 J.Walker)Similar
Q3 0:52
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+3
91.2%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 A.Martin Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU18 (#42 C.Henderson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
92.4%
(00:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 R.Gagliano pass complete short right to #9 T.Brown Jr. caught at MSU20, for 3 yards to the MSU15 (#2 T.Cline; #15 J.Walker)Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
97.2%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 16FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -25 yds · 0:594% → 1%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.4%
(14:49) Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU33 (#0 K.Woods)Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
96.2%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU36 (#91 F.Hixon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.0%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU39 fumbled by #5 T.Campbell at MSU36 forced by #13 A.Taylor recovered by MTSU #0 K.Woods at MSU39 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:45 #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 17Uncategorized
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:281% → 1%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
99.1%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short left to #6 D.Howard caught at MSU30, for 8 yards to the MSU31 (#24 C.Hall; #30 B.Williams)Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+18
99.0%
(13:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short middle to #6 D.Howard caught at MSU47, for 18 yards to the MSU49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MTSU Roughing The Passer (#31 M.Malaki-Donaldson) 13 yards from MSU49 to MTSU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.0%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass incomplete short left thrown to MTSU38 broken up by #31 M.Malaki-DonaldsonSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
99.0%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short left to #0 K.Vaka caught at MTSU33, for 7 yards to the MTSU31 (#12 R.Lee III; #22 G.Gaskins)Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+11
99.0%
(12:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 11 yards gain to the MTSU20 (#16 J.Thompson; #30 B.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
98.9%
(11:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU19 (#95 Z.Simpson-Smith)Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+11
99.0%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 J.Ogle pass complete short left to #8 J.Potter caught at MTSU09, for 11 yards to the MTSU08 (#11 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MTSU Targeting (#26 K.Smith) 4 yards from MTSU08 to MTSU04, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:47
(04:57) Shotgun #30 J.Northington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:47 #29 R.Devita kick attempt good (H: #19 S.Ashby, LS: #47 C.Ford)
-6.1
TD · Q4 14:53
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Brown Jr. rush middle for 15 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:53, 1ST DOWN #91 D.Bourgeois kick attempt good (H: #92 A.Logan, LS: #59 H.Hamlin)
+4.8
TD · Q2 7:18
(07:22) Shotgun #5 T.Campbell rush middle for 46 yards gain to the MTSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:18, 1ST DOWN #29 R.Devita kick attempt good (H: #19 S.Ashby, LS: #47 C.Ford)
-3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com