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BGSU

Bowling Green 24 at Miami (OH) 20

M-OH
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:55 · (12:01) #34 P.Stainton punt 46 yards to the BGSU11 #5 B.Ridley return 7 yards to the BGSU18 (#12 K.Martin)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 7Pregame prior+26.5Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: (00:04) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 00:00 — M-OH win probability +9.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:25: (13:33) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at MIAMI00, for 14 yards to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +25.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:50: (08:57) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at BGSU00, for 10 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BGSU Holding declined #4 D.Hyatt pass attempt Successful — M-OH win probability +35.0 pts (now 68%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:47: (01:51) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 01:47 — M-OH win probability +23.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:08: (00:12) #44 L.Kemp rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:08 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +63.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:55M-OH 4th & 20 at M-OH 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54BGSU 4th & 2 at M-OH 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:34M-OH 4th & 5 at BGSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    75.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:34BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:05M-OH 4th & 6 at BGSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    70.0%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:52M-OH 4th & 2 at M-OH 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.9%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:06BGSU 4th & 6 at M-OH 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.2%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:17M-OH 4th & 7 at M-OH 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:39BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 7, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−2.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:45M-OH 4th & 12 at BGSU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−2.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−9.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:17M-OH 4th & 1 at BGSU 12, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−3.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−19.3
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:17BGSU 4th & 12 at M-OH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−3.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:47M-OH 4th & 7 at BGSU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    24.6%−32.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:57BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 8:50M-OH Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    50.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.5%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 0:08BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
M-OHDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:5478% → 77%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
77.8%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #8 D.Witten caught at MIAMI37, for 11 yards to the MIAMI39 (#18 N.Sawyer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
77.7%
(14:27) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BGSU47 (#23 M.Bradley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
77.6%
(13:44) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU46 (#15 D.Banks; #4 K.Kostus)Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+1
77.5%
(13:03) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU45 (#23 M.Bradley; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-12
77.3%
(12:20) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to BGSU40 QB hurried by #8 C.Lewis PENALTY MIAMI Intentional Grounding (#6 C.Heavner)Similar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 20
OWN 43
+7
77.0%
(12:01) #34 P.Stainton punt 46 yards to the BGSU11 #5 B.Ridley return 7 yards to the BGSU18 (#12 K.Martin)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:5423% → 25%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
77.0%
(11:54) No Huddle #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU20 (#1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+8
76.9%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU28, for 8 yards to the BGSU28 (#0 A.Knighten), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
76.8%
(11:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU35, for 7 yards to the BGSU35 (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+8
76.5%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU43, for 8 yards to the BGSU43 (#0 A.Knighten), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
76.2%
(10:02) #2 N.Amachree rush right for 6 yards gain to the BGSU49 (#3 M.McCain; #8 C.Young)Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
76.0%
(09:35) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIAMI46 (#3 M.McCain; #8 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
75.6%
(08:44) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIAMI45 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+7
75.5%
(08:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 7 yards gain to the MIAMI38 (#0 A.Knighten), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 2
OPP 38
0
75.2%
(07:38) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #5 B.Ridley caught at MIAMI41, for 0 yards to the MIAMI38 fumbled by #5 B.Ridley at MIAMI37 forced by #1 D.Tatum, out of bounds at MIAMI38Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
75.3%
(06:57) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to MIAMI36 broken up by #0 A.Knighten, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1476% → 75%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
76.0%
(06:54) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 8 yards gain to the MIAMI46 (#96 C.Simmons)Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
76.2%
(06:20) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at BGSU49, for 7 yards to the BGSU47 (#18 N.Sawyer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
76.1%
(05:48) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU43 (#4 K.Kostus; #5 E.George)Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
76.0%
(04:56) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #8 D.Witten caught at BGSU31, for 11 yards to the BGSU32 (#18 N.Sawyer), out of bounds PENALTY MIAMI Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#72 K.Manu) 5 yards from BGSU43 to BGSU48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 11
OPP 47
0
75.7%
(04:15) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU48, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+6
75.1%
(03:54) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 6 yards gain to the BGSU42 (#0 K.Pascal), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:34
4TH & 5
OPP 42
0
75.0%
(03:41) #34 P.Stainton punt 37 yards to the BGSU05, out of bounds at BGSU05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5525% → 26%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
74.8%
(03:33) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU08 (#13 D.Yharbrough)Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+5
74.7%
(02:59) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU13, for 5 yards to the BGSU13, out of bounds at BGSU13Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+6
74.4%
(02:34) #44 L.Kemp rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU19 (#15 B.Myrick; #22 B.Jobe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
73.8%
(02:03) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU25, for 7 yards to the BGSU26 (#12 K.Martin), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:19
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+1
73.3%
(01:25) Shotgun #5 B.Ridley rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU27 (#13 D.Yharbrough)Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 2
OWN 27
0
73.4%
(00:44) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #2 N.Amachree thrown to BGSU24 broken up by #43 G.LyonsSimilar
Q1 0:34
4TH & 2
OWN 27
+7
74.1%
(00:42) #30 R.Kingston punt 41 yards to the MIAMI32 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 7 yards to the MIAMI39 (#11 A.Hale)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 5FG
16 plays · 55 yds · 6:2775% → 74%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
74.6%
(00:32) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 7 yards gain to the MIAMI46 (#1 D.Braxton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 46
0
75.0%
(14:57) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete deep left to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to BGSU28Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+13
74.6%
(14:55) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at BGSU41, for 13 yards to the BGSU41, out of bounds at BGSU41, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
75.1%
(14:16) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush right for 3 yards gain to the BGSU38 (#88 S.Brown; #15 D.Banks)Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+9
75.0%
(13:33) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 9 yards gain to the BGSU29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
75.1%
PENALTY MIAMI False Start (#51 E.Smith) 5 yards from BGSU29 to BGSU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+2
74.7%
(12:40) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 2 yards gain to the BGSU32 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+2
74.6%
(12:01) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU30 (#52 E.Durham-Smith; #58 K.Thomas)Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & 11
OPP 30
+10
74.0%
(11:17) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right thrown to BGSU15 QB hurried by #8 C.Lewis PENALTY BGSU Holding (#7 M.Wright III) 10 yards from BGSU30 to BGSU20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
74.8%
(11:09) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #8 D.Witten caught at BGSU16, for 10 yards to the BGSU10 lateral to #24 S.Smith for 10 yards gain to the BGSU10 (#3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
74.7%
(10:29) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU04 (#5 E.George)Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
74.7%
(09:50) #0 R.Nelson rush left for 2 yards loss to the BGSU06 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
73.9%
(09:13) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
73.9%
(09:07) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 09:05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:5627% → 36%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
73.3%
(08:58) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 5 yards gain to the BGSU25 (#8 C.Young)Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
73.0%
(08:13) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #1 A.Dendy caught at BGSU22, for 1 yard to the BGSU26 (#1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+10
73.6%
(07:30) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BGSU30, for 4 yards to the BGSU30 (#26 E.Coppess) PENALTY MIAMI Holding (#0 A.Knighten) 10 yards from BGSU26 to BGSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
64.4%
(07:05) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #2 N.Amachree caught at BGSU49, for 64 yards to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:57, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:4966% → 65%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
65.8%
(06:47) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIAMI29 (#1 D.Braxton)Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+8
66.9%
(06:07) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at MIAMI28, for 8 yards to the MIAMI37 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
65.9%
(05:27) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIAMI41, for 4 yards to the MIAMI41 (#1 D.Braxton)Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
67.1%
(04:44) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIAMI45 (#96 C.Simmons; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
66.1%
(04:05) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete deep left to #24 S.Smith thrown to BGSU20 broken up by #26 J.AndrewsSimilar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
65.0%
(04:00) #34 P.Stainton punt 55 yards to the BGSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:4137% → 48%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.5%
(03:53) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush right for 5 yards gain to the BGSU25 (#0 A.Knighten; #1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-3
61.0%
(03:08) #0 J.Scoby rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BGSU22 (#92 R.Andrews; #8 C.Young)Similar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
62.4%
(02:24) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BGSU32, for 11 yards to the BGSU33 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
60.6%
(02:00) #44 L.Kemp rush middle for 17 yards gain to the BGSU50 (#8 C.Young; #24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
50
+26
58.4%
(01:32) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at MIAMI41, for 26 yards to the MIAMI24 (#13 D.Yharbrough), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
57.1%
(01:22) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Scoby thrown to MIAMI24Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
57.4%
(01:19) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #5 B.Ridley caught at MIAMI25, for 4 yards to the MIAMI20 (#0 A.Knighten), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
57.6%
(01:13) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #3 T.Johnson thrown to MIAMI17Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
52.5%
(01:09) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 01:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 9FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:5956% → 65%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
55.8%
(01:06) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 1 yard to the MIAMI31 (#5 E.George)Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
54.8%
(00:39) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Witten thrown to MIAMI40Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+17
53.5%
(00:33) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush right for 17 yards gain to the MIAMI48, out of bounds at MIAMI48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
57.5%
(00:24) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #20 C.Yacamelli thrown to MIAMI45 PENALTY BGSU Holding (#26 J.Andrews) 10 yards from MIAMI48 to BGSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
58.1%
(00:18) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BGSU48 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+25
55.7%
(00:12) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #8 D.Witten caught at BGSU32, for 25 yards to the BGSU23 (#0 K.Pascal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+41
65.2%
(00:04) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:1339% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.6%
(15:00) No Huddle #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #18 W.Sharp thrown to BGSU33 PENALTY MIAMI Holding (#24 M.Yharbrough) 10 yards from BGSU25 to BGSU35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
59.8%
(14:53) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BGSU34 (#8 C.Young; #17 B.Minich)Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+13
59.0%
(14:14) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU45, for 13 yards to the BGSU47 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 2
OPP 0
+2
55.6%
(13:28) Kneel down by #17 J.Kastantin at BGSU49 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
56.7%
(12:44) Shotgun #3 T.Johnson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU50 (#20 Z.Scott; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 9
50
0
55.9%
(12:00) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #3 T.Johnson thrown to MIAMI47 broken up by #26 E.Coppess QB hurried by #13 D.YharbroughSimilar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 9
50
0
57.0%
(11:56) #30 R.Kingston punt 41 yards to the MIAMI09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 6:2759% → 53%
Q3 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
59.0%
(11:44) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to MIAMI15Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
58.8%
(11:44) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIAMI13 (#15 D.Banks; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
57.5%
(11:06) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 0 yards to the MIAMI13 (#3 D.Pringle) PENALTY BGSU Holding (#26 J.Andrews) 10 yards from MIAMI13 to MIAMI23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
58.8%
(10:31) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIAMI26 (#3 D.Pringle; #5 E.George)Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
58.8%
(09:55) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 8 yards gain (1) to the MIAMI34 (#0 K.Pascal) PENALTY MIAMI Holding (#72 K.Manu) 10 yards from MIAMI27 to MIAMI17Similar
Q3 9:23
2ND & 16
OWN 17
+6
57.8%
(09:28) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIAMI23 (#4 K.Kostus)Similar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+17
56.2%
(08:49) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #1 M.Huggins caught at MIAMI32, for 17 yards to the MIAMI40 (#3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
60.1%
(08:04) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MIAMI32 (#5 E.George)Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+10
55.3%
(07:19) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIAMI36 (#15 D.Banks; #26 J.Andrews) PENALTY MIAMI Holding (#51 E.Smith) 10 yards from MIAMI32 to MIAMI22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 28
OWN 22
+11
54.8%
(07:03) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 11 yards gain to the MIAMI33 (#26 J.Andrews), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+5
53.1%
(06:19) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIAMI40, for 14 yards to the MIAMI47 (#7 M.Wright III) PENALTY MIAMI Ineligible Downfield on Pass 5 yards from MIAMI33 to MIAMI28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 22
OWN 28
+15
52.6%
(06:04) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #8 D.Witten caught at MIAMI42, for 15 yards to the MIAMI43 (#1 D.Braxton), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
53.4%
(05:24) #34 P.Stainton punt 49 yards to the BGSU08 fair catch by #5 B.Ridley at BGSU08 PENALTY BGSU Holding (#22 J.Holt) 4 yards from BGSU08 to BGSU04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3047% → 48%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
53.1%
(05:14) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU01, for 3 yards to the BGSU07 (#13 D.Yharbrough; #1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 7
0
50.4%
(04:34) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU07 (#1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
51.3%
(03:53) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #18 W.Sharp thrown to BGSU20 QB hurried by #92 R.AndrewsSimilar
Q3 3:39
4TH & 7
OWN 7
+20
52.5%
(03:48) #30 R.Kingston punt 33 yards to the BGSU40 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 20 yards to the BGSU20 (#64 M.Dillard), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:4857% → 57%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
57.4%
(03:38) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 2 yards gain to the BGSU18 (#1 D.Braxton)Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-1
57.1%
(03:09) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #24 S.Smith caught at BGSU19, for 1 yard loss to the BGSU19 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 9
OPP 19
-3
54.4%
(02:29) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BGSU22 (#23 M.Bradley)Similar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 12
OPP 22
+40
56.8%
(01:48) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 01:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1443% → 76%
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.2%
(01:44) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 7 yards gain to the BGSU32 (#22 B.Jobe), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
54.6%
(01:07) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #2 N.Amachree caught at BGSU26, for 2 yards loss to the BGSU30 (#1 D.Tatum; #8 C.Young)Similar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 5
OPP 0
+48
52.1%
(00:25) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete deep middle to #5 B.Ridley caught at MIAMI22, for 48 yards to the MIAMI22, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIAMI Roughing The Passer (#9 J.Hammonds) 11 yard from MIAMI22 to MIAMI11, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
48.7%
(15:00) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 5 yards loss to the MIAMI16 (#17 B.Minich; #1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 15
OPP 16
+2
49.0%
(14:16) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #14 P.Sadler caught at MIAMI14, for 2 yards to the MIAMI14 (#15 B.Myrick), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 13:25
3RD & 13
OPP 14
+14
23.8%
(13:33) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at MIAMI00, for 14 yards to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 4:2129% → 68%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
29.1%
(13:16) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 6 yards gain to the MIAMI25 (#8 C.Lewis), out of bounds PENALTY BGSU Personal Foul (#8 C.Lewis) 15 yards from MIAMI25 to MIAMI40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+39
31.5%
(13:02) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at BGSU47, for 39 yards to the BGSU21 (#3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWN. #3 D.Pringle injured on the playSimilar
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
35.5%
(12:28) #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #0 R.Nelson caught at BGSU24, for 1 yard loss to the BGSU22, out of bounds at BGSU22Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+8
34.9%
(11:54) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #8 D.Witten caught at BGSU15, for 8 yards to the BGSU14 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+2
32.1%
(11:09) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #2 C.Jenkins Jr caught at BGSU13, for 2 yards to the BGSU12 (#1 D.Braxton)Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+1
29.1%
(10:26) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU11 (#3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
33.1%
(09:39) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU10 (#5 E.George)Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
68.2%
(08:57) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at BGSU00, for 10 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BGSU Holding declined #4 D.Hyatt pass attempt Successful Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16MISSED FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:2443% → 45%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.6%
(08:48) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU31, for 6 yards to the BGSU31 (#12 K.Martin)Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
54.1%
(08:07) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BGSU31, for 6 yards to the BGSU37 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
53.0%
(07:24) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU37 (#43 G.Lyons)Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
53.4%
(06:46) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Ridley thrown to BGSU37 QB hurried by #43 G.LyonsSimilar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+15
55.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #18 W.Sharp thrown to MIAMI45 PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference (#17 B.Minich) 15 yards from BGSU37 to MIAMI48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
48.3%
(06:37) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at MIAMI37, for 16 yards to the MIAMI32 (#13 D.Yharbrough; #21 T.Coleman Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
46.1%
(05:50) #1 A.Dendy rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIAMI30 (#3 M.McCain; #20 Z.Scott)Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 8
OPP 30
-2
45.1%
(05:10) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MIAMI34 (#99 O.Alexander, #15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 12
OPP 34
0
50.0%
(04:27) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep left to #5 B.Ridley thrown to MIAMI10 QB hurried by #43 G.LyonsSimilar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 12
OPP 34
+52
54.7%
(04:20) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 04:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17FG
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:2360% → 87%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
60.2%
(04:15) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIAMI36 (#88 S.Brown; #15 D.Banks)Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+22
61.0%
(03:35) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIAMI41, for 22 yards to the BGSU42 (#23 M.Bradley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
65.2%
(02:54) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 15 yards gain to the BGSU27 (#8 C.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
66.3%
(02:12) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete deep left to #8 D.Witten thrown to BGSU03 PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (#26 J.Andrews) 15 yards from BGSU27 to BGSU12, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
66.2%
(02:03) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU09 (#3 D.Pringle; #5 E.George)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
66.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Witten thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
63.5%
(01:54) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #1 M.Huggins thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+28
86.9%
(01:51) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 28 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 01:47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:2525% → 95%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
75.1%
(01:47) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU38, for 14 yards to the BGSU39 (#13 D.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
73.0%
(01:25) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU50, for 18 yards to the MIAMI43 (#3 M.McCain; #1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
71.1%
(00:56) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #18 W.Sharp thrown to MIAMI39Similar
Q4 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
72.5%
(00:54) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #2 N.Amachree caught at MIAMI43, for 9 yards to the MIAMI34 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+8
69.0%
(00:47) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at MIAMI30, for 8 yards to the MIAMI26 (#8 C.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
65.5%
(00:40) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #18 W.Sharp caught at MIAMI22, for 9 yards to the MIAMI17 (#3 M.McCain), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
64.9%
(00:32) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to MIAMI00Similar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
65.0%
(00:25) #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIAMI14 (#92 R.Andrews; #17 B.Minich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
68.7%
(00:22) #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Saffold thrown to MIAMI00 broken up by #0 A.Knighten QB hurried by #43 G.LyonsSimilar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
68.7%
(00:17) #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to MIAMI00 PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference (#17 B.Minich) 12 yards from MIAMI14 to MIAMI02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.1%
(00:12) #44 L.Kemp rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:08 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0216% → 23%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
16.1%
(00:06) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #18 B.Isom caught at BGSU49, for 9 yards to the BGSU44, out of bounds at BGSU44Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 1
OPP 44
-7
23.3%
(00:04) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MIAMI49 (#5 E.George)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:08
(00:12) #44 L.Kemp rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:08 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
-63.6
TD · Q4 8:50
(08:57) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at BGSU00, for 10 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:50, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BGSU Holding declined #4 D.Hyatt pass attempt Successful
+35
TD · Q4 13:25
(13:33) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at MIAMI00, for 14 yards to the MIAMI00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
-25.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com