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M-OH

Miami (OH) 20 at Massachusetts 19

MASS
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
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Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadM-OH aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreM-OH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:42 · (12:47) #34 P.Stainton punt 51 yards to the UMass17 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Pregame prior−20.7Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:11: (14:15) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 56 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 14:11 — MASS win probability +4.4 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q3 0:41: (00:43) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 00:41 — M-OH win probability +4.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 4:55: (04:56) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 04:55 — MASS win probability +9.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:01: (00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete deep middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at MIA00, for 21 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:01, 1ST DOWN #83 R.Adkins rush attempt failed — MASS win probability +13.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 0:01: Timeout Miami (OH), clock 00:01 — M-OH win probability +25.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:40MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:42M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:12MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.3%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11MASS 4th & 7 at M-OH 38, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:43M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.5%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:04M-OH 4th & 12 at M-OH 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:37MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:20M-OH 4th & 19 at MASS 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:10MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23M-OH 4th & 10 at M-OH 37, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:19MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−3.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:50M-OH 4th & 3 at MASS 41, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−3.0
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:42MASS 4th & 12 at MASS 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−3.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:23M-OH 4th & 8 at MASS 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−2.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:41M-OH 4th & 9 at MASS 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    51.8%−13.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:42MASS 4th & 8 at MASS 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:36M-OH 4th & 4 at MASS 28, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%−1.0
    60% to make
    Punt
    69.2%−7.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:08MASS 4th & 1 at M-OH 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−3.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−3.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:55MASS 4th & 1 at M-OH 16, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%−2.0
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−7.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:22M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:45MASS 4th & 6 at MASS 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 1 of 2M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:36MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:51M-OH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:11M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:01MASS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 7.8 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.8%−7.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1129% → 29%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.7%
(15:00) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush left for 1 yard gain to the UMass26 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.9%
(14:28) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep middle to #2 T.Harding thrown to MIA27Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
29.0%
(14:23) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short right to #85 D.Alsup caught at UMass30, for 5 yards to the UMass31 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
29.2%
(13:46) #43 E.Phillipson punt 37 yards to the MIA32 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4471% → 70%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
29.3%
(13:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA32 (#42 A.DePaepe; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
29.6%
(13:00) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to MIA41 QB hurried by #55 Z.MorrisSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
29.7%
(12:52) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete deep left to #18 B.Isom thrown to UMass35 broken up by #0 I.ReedSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
29.8%
(12:47) #34 P.Stainton punt 51 yards to the UMass17 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 6:0430% → 36%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
29.8%
(12:42) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass21, for 9 yards to the UMass26 (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+1
30.3%
(11:53) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush right for 1 yard gain to the UMass27 (#99 O.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
30.6%
(11:00) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UMass21 (#92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+18
30.9%
(10:19) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #8 K.Dia-Johnson caught at UMass39, for 18 yards to the UMass39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
31.4%
(09:43) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass42, for 5 yards to the UMass44 (#1 D.Tatum; #52 M.Moore Jr) PENALTY UMass Holding (#19 J.Lewis) 10 yards from UMass44 to UMass34Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+10
31.9%
(07:53) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass44, for 10 yards to the UMass44 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
32.6%
(07:48) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMass45 (#22 B.Jobe; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+7
32.5%
(07:24) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIA48 (#3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY MIA Holding (#24 M.Yharbrough) 10 yards from MIA48 to MIA38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
32.9%
(07:20) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep middle to #2 T.Harding thrown to MIA00 broken up by #0 A.KnightenSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
33.0%
(07:01) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to #8 K.Dia-Johnson thrown to MIA29 broken up by #0 A.Knighten PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (#8 C.Young) 9 yards from MIA38 to MIA29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
33.5%
(06:36) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 6 yards gain to the MIA23 (#1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
36.4%
(06:36) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush right for 23 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:36, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:2865% → 68%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+29
35.5%
(06:26) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 29 yards gain to the UMass44, out of bounds at UMass44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
35.3%
(05:52) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 14 yards gain to the UMass30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
35.3%
(05:09) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMass24 (#7 T.Magee)Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
35.6%
(04:35) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 4 yards gain to the UMass20 (#7 T.Magee), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
32.2%
(03:58) Shotgun #24 S.Smith rush left for 20 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:51, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:3834% → 34%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.8%
(03:50) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep right to #18 M.Ogunniyi thrown to MIA45Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.8%
(03:43) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #8 K.Dia-Johnson caught at UMass28, for 4 yards to the UMass29 (#0 A.Knighten), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
33.7%
PENALTY MIA Offside (#8 C.Young) 5 yards from UMass29 to UMass34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
34.5%
(03:05) #13 A.McCarthy rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass34 (#1 D.Tatum; #15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
34.2%
(02:17) #23 E.Faulkner rush right for 0 yards to the UMass34 (#13 D.Yharbrough), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:5168% → 72%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
32.5%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 15 yards gain to the UMass19 (#9 J.Krueger; #42 A.DePaepe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
32.6%
(01:23) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to UMass05 QB hurried by #44 T.Hinspeter PENALTY UMass Holding (#0 I.Reed) 10 yards from UMass19 to UMass09, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
28.4%
(01:15) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 9 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:11 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 1:4530% → 35%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
30.0%
(01:09) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete deep left to #19 J.Lewis caught at MIA41, for 34 yards to the MIA41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
31.5%
(00:32) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush left for 5 yards loss to the MIA46 (#22 B.Jobe; #15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
30.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Lewis thrown to MIA27Similar
Q2 14:37
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+8
30.3%
(14:53) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short middle to #14 C.Kimmons IV caught at MIA48, for 8 yards to the MIA38 (#13 D.Yharbrough)Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+56
34.5%
(14:15) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 56 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 14:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
14 plays · 23 yds · 4:5166% → 64%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.7%
(14:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush left for 4 yards gain to the MIA29 (#38 Z.Daniel; #9 J.Krueger)Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
33.6%
(13:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short middle to #0 R.Nelson thrown to MIA22 QB hurried by #42 A.DePaepeSimilar
Q2 13:17
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
34.0%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at MIA38, for 9 yards to the MIA38, out of bounds at MIA38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
32.8%
(12:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA43 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+3
32.8%
(12:17) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIA46 (#6 J.Iseah; #9 J.Krueger)Similar
Q2 11:26
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
33.1%
(11:30) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 1 yard gain to the MIA47 (#92 R.Johnson)Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+3
34.2%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA50 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
50
+3
32.8%
(10:06) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass47 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #5 T.Martin)Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
33.0%
(09:24) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to UMass35 QB hurried by #9 J.KruegerSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
33.4%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short middle to #18 B.Isom thrown to UMass35 broken up by #6 J.Iseah QB hurried by #38 Z.DanielSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 7
OPP 47
+5
34.4%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#60 T.Wallman) 5 yards from UMass47 to MIA48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
35.7%
(09:09) #34 P.Stainton punt 41 yards to the UMass11 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1536% → 37%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
35.6%
(09:03) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short right to #83 R.Adkins caught at UMass11, for 9 yards to the UMass20 (#15 B.Myrick), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+5
36.2%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#73 Z.Franks) 5 yards from UMass20 to UMass15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
35.1%
(08:09) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush right for 2 yards gain to the UMass17 (#3 M.McCain; #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+13
34.6%
(07:25) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass20, for 13 yards to the UMass30 (#1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
35.8%
(07:03) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 0 yards to the UMass30 (#3 M.McCain; #99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
35.6%
(06:30) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush right for 9 yards gain to the UMass39 (#8 C.Young)Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
37.5%
(05:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to #2 T.Harding thrown to MIA30 broken up by #13 D.YharbroughSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
36.8%
(05:41) #43 E.Phillipson punt 50 yards to the MIA11 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:0764% → 65%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+33
35.7%
(05:35) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at MIA23, for 33 yards to the MIA44 (#38 Z.Daniel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
33.5%
(04:52) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #2 C.Jenkins Jr thrown to UMass49Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+3
33.8%
(04:48) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIA47 (#10 A.Melvin; #55 Z.Morris)Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+25
34.0%
(04:03) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete deep left to #1 M.Huggins caught at UMass30, for 25 yards to the UMass28 (#3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
31.7%
(03:19) Shotgun #8 D.Witten pass incomplete short right to #81 B.Loftus thrown to UMass10Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
31.8%
(03:12) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #15 C.Ross thrown to UMass15 QB hurried by #9 J.KruegerSimilar
Q2 2:59
3RD & 10
OPP 28
-9
32.3%
(03:08) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UMass37 (#26 C.Amobi)Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 19
OPP 37
0
35.0%
(02:25) #34 P.Stainton punt 37 yards to the UMass00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 1:5736% → 35%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
36.4%
(02:15) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass29, for 9 yards to the UMass29 (#4 B.Rice)Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
37.6%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to #14 C.Kimmons IV thrown to UMass35 broken up by #3 M.McCain QB hurried by #43 G.Lyons and #8 C.YoungSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
35.6%
(01:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 3 yards gain to the UMass32 (#24 M.Yharbrough; #3 M.McCain), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
36.3%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#77 J.King) 5 yards from UMass32 to UMass27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+10
35.9%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Lewis thrown to UMass35 PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (#0 A.Knighten) 10 yards from UMass27 to UMass37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
36.8%
(01:07) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Lewis thrown to MIA17 broken up by #0 A.Knighten QB hurried by #3 M.McCainSimilar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
36.7%
(01:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass39, for 2 yards to the UMass39 (#13 D.Yharbrough)Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
36.2%
(00:20) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to #19 J.Lewis thrown to MIA25Similar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+5
35.3%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#8 K.Dia-Johnson) 5 yards from UMass39 to UMass34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:10
4TH & 13
OWN 34
0
34.7%
(00:10) #43 E.Phillipson punt 48 yards to the MIA18 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
35.3%
(00:06) Kneel down by Miami (OH) at MIA17 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:2966% → 64%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.2%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #8 D.Witten caught at MIA25, for 4 yards to the MIA29 (#55 Z.Morris; #7 T.Magee)Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
33.8%
(14:16) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA37 (#38 Z.Daniel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
33.5%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#15 C.Ross) 5 yards from MIA37 to MIA32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+5
34.6%
(13:15) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 5 yards gain to the MIA37 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
34.1%
(12:37) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #8 D.Witten thrown to MIA45 broken up by #7 T.MageeSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
35.5%
(12:32) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #20 C.Yacamelli thrown to MIA40Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
36.5%
(12:28) #34 P.Stainton punt 46 yards to the UMass17 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5936% → 34%
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
35.8%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep right to #19 J.Lewis thrown to UMass47Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
35.5%
(12:16) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass19 (#92 R.Andrews; #4 B.Rice)Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
34.7%
(11:35) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to #8 K.Dia-Johnson thrown to MIA45Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 8
OWN 19
+5
33.9%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#7 T.Magee) 5 yards from UMass19 to UMass14. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 13
OWN 14
0
33.9%
(11:30) #43 E.Phillipson punt 47 yards to the MIA39 blocked by #14 L.MyersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2167% → 65%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
33.2%
(11:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 2 yards gain to the MIA41 (#95 H.Dirstine)Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+11
33.2%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 11 yards gain to the UMass48 (#0 I.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.7%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #9 D.Jones thrown to UMass30 QB hurried by #6 J.IseahSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
32.8%
(09:49) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 7 yards gain to the UMass41 (#42 A.DePaepe)Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
33.2%
(09:00) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete deep left to #18 B.Isom thrown to UMass18 broken up by #7 T.MageeSimilar
Q3 8:50
4TH & 3
OPP 41
0
35.0%
(08:53) #34 P.Stainton punt 33 yards to the UMass08 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0136% → 33%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
36.1%
(08:48) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush right for 3 yards gain to the UMass11 (#5 D.Bell; #15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
36.5%
(08:11) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass15 (#15 B.Myrick; #52 M.Moore Jr)Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-5
34.2%
(07:34) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UMass06 (#20 Z.Scott, #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 12
OWN 6
+5
33.1%
(06:50) #43 E.Phillipson punt 47 yards to the MIA47 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 5 yards to the UMass48 (#19 D.Chiavegato)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:1069% → 67%
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
31.5%
(06:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner sacked for loss of 10 yards to the MIA42 (#44 T.Hinspeter, #42 A.DePaepe)Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+1
33.9%
(05:54) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA43 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #90 T.Passmore, Jr.)Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+11
34.6%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #20 C.Yacamelli caught at MIA45, for 11 yards to the UMass46 (#15 K.Bendolph; #8 M.Robinson II)Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
32.8%
(04:25) #34 P.Stainton punt 34 yards to the UMass12 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4135% → 35%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
35.4%
(04:21) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 9 yards gain to the UMass21 (#20 Z.Scott)Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 1
OWN 21
0
35.1%
(03:42) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 0 yards to the UMass21 fumbled by #23 E.Faulkner at UMass19 recovered by MIA #43 G.Lyons at UMass21, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4973% → 76%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
27.5%
(03:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UMass12 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #5 T.Martin)Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 1
OPP 12
+5
27.5%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass07 (#92 R.Johnson; #38 Z.Daniel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
26.8%
(02:12) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards loss to the UMass09 (#8 M.Robinson II; #5 T.Martin)Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
26.8%
(01:29) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass09 (#3 K.Bournes; #55 Z.Morris)Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
28.7%
(00:49) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #1 M.Huggins thrown to UMass00Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
24.3%
(00:43) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 00:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4627% → 24%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.6%
(00:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep right to #2 T.Harding thrown to MIA37Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
26.6%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 2 yards gain to the UMass22 (#13 D.Yharbrough)Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
25.2%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete deep left to #2 T.Harding thrown to UMass42 broken up by #21 T.Coleman Jr.Similar
Q4 14:42
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+20
24.2%
(14:52) #43 E.Phillipson punt 49 yards to the MIA29 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 20 yards to the MIA49, out of bounds at MIA49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21FG
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:0280% → 83%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.2%
(14:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete deep middle to #24 S.Smith thrown to UMass30 broken up by #44 T.HinspeterSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
20.2%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 4 yards gain to the UMass47 (#3 K.Bournes; #9 J.Krueger)Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+13
19.8%
(13:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at UMass42, for 13 yards to the UMass34 (#0 I.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
18.7%
(13:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush left for 0 yards to the UMass34 (#38 Z.Daniel; #9 J.Krueger)Similar
Q4 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
18.7%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 6 yards gain to the UMass28 (#44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 4
OPP 28
0
17.9%
(11:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams thrown to UMass32Similar
Q4 11:36
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+47
17.0%
(11:41) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 47 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 11:36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 6:3516% → 23%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
16.4%
(11:34) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush right for 1 yard gain to the UMass26 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
15.9%
(10:54) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Harding thrown to UMass40Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
13.4%
(10:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete deep left to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass50, for 24 yards to the UMass50, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
50
+4
16.1%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at MIA47, for 4 yards to the MIA46 (#8 C.Young)Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+1
16.5%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA45 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+4
15.7%
(08:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIA41 (#92 R.Andrews; #4 B.Rice)Similar
Q4 8:08
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+4
14.5%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA37 (#1 D.Tatum; #9 J.Hammonds), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
15.7%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#64 P.Miller) 5 yards from MIA37 to MIA42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+17
14.3%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at MIA30, for 17 yards to the MIA25 (#1 D.Tatum; #0 A.Knighten), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
14.9%
(06:21) Shotgun #13 A.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to #83 R.Adkins thrown to MIA20 QB hurried by #3 M.McCainSimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
14.5%
(06:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa rush right for 9 yards gain to the MIA16 (#0 A.Knighten; #15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
13.8%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA16 (#99 O.Alexander; #3 M.McCain)Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+34
23.2%
(04:56) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 04:55Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 2:2387% → 89%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.8%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MIA26 (#92 R.Johnson; #90 T.Passmore, Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
12.7%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush right for 10 yards gain to the MIA36 (#7 T.Magee; #5 T.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
10.5%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#15 C.Ross) 5 yards from MIA36 to MIA31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+2
11.5%
(03:24) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA33 (#90 T.Passmore, Jr.; #92 R.Johnson)Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+7
10.3%
(02:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 7 yards gain to the MIA40 (#0 I.Reed; #3 K.Bournes)Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-10
9.0%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 10 yards loss to the MIA30 (#5 T.Martin; #6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
11.5%
(02:27) #34 P.Stainton punt 52 yards to the UMass18 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass18 PENALTY UMass Holding (#23 J.Clark) 9 yards from UMass18 to UMass09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24TD
12 plays · 91 yds · 1:5511% → 32%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
10.7%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UMass03 (#20 Z.Scott, #92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 16
OWN 3
+30
10.6%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete deep left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass30, for 30 yards to the UMass33 (#24 M.Yharbrough), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
13.0%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass38, for 6 yards to the UMass39 QB hurried by #4 B.Rice (#24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-3
13.3%
(00:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa rush left for 3 yards loss to the UMass36 (#92 R.Andrews; #43 G.Lyons)Similar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+1
10.0%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass36, for 1 yard to the UMass37 QB hurried by #4 B.Rice (#21 T.Coleman Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+16
10.2%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at MIA48, for 16 yards to the MIA47 (#1 D.Tatum), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
12.2%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete short middle to #85 D.Alsup caught at MIA38, for 9 yards to the MIA38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+15
15.1%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass incomplete deep right to #15 T.Dashiell thrown to MIA05 PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (#24 M.Yharbrough) 15 yards from MIA38 to MIA23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
18.5%
(00:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa rush right for 2 yards gain to the MIA21 (#92 R.Andrews)Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
32.4%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete deep middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at MIA00, for 21 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:01, 1ST DOWN #83 R.Adkins rush attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:01
Timeout Miami (OH), clock 00:01
-25.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.5
TD · Q4 0:01
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass complete deep middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at MIA00, for 21 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:01, 1ST DOWN #83 R.Adkins rush attempt failed
+13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com