Try the model
SAC

Sacramento State 10 at Bowling Green 38

BGSU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFUMBLETDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:48 · (12:01) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush right for 3 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#10 A.Hines III; #0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Home team on offense−0.3Pregame prior+23.6Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:36: (09:37) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:36 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:56: (02:00) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 01:56 — BGSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:04: (00:11) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #19 J.Saffold caught at Sac St00, for 9 yards to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +7.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:25: (06:32) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 30 yards gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:32: (13:32) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 7 yards gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:32 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SAC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 11:48SAC 4th & 3 at BGSU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:04SAC 4th & 14 at BGSU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:33BGSU 4th & 11 at SAC 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:06SAC 4th & 1 at SAC 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.8%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:06SAC 4th & 18 at SAC 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:16SAC 4th & 24 at SAC 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−2.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:56BGSU 4th & 5 at SAC 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:28SAC 4th & 3 at SAC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:39SAC 4th & 1 at SAC 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.1%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:25SAC 4th & 5 at BGSU 28, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.3%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:51SAC 4th & 3 at SAC 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:13SAC 4th & 1 at BGSU 48, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:28BGSU 4th & 6 at SAC 47, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:50SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 44, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3SAC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 0:04BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 6:25BGSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 13:32BGSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:37SAC Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:0575% → 75%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
74.8%
(14:52) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU35, for 3 yards to the BGSU35 (#44 D.Davis)Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
74.6%
(14:12) Shotgun #5 B.Ridley rush left for 9 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
74.7%
(13:35) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass intercepted by #1 B.Silvera at Sac St46 QB hurried by #18 F.Puloka, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2FG
12 plays · 39 yds · 6:2026% → 27%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
74.4%
(13:24) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to Sac St45Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+7
74.4%
(13:21) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BGSU47 (#88 S.Brown; #15 D.Banks)Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
74.2%
(12:47) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU47 (#5 E.George; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+3
74.0%
(12:01) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush right for 3 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#10 A.Hines III; #0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
73.7%
(11:25) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush left for 22 yards gain to the BGSU22 (#15 D.Banks), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
73.4%
(10:43) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU17 (#15 D.Banks; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
73.2%
(10:04) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU17 (#88 S.Brown)Similar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+6
72.9%
(09:12) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at BGSU11, for 6 yards to the BGSU11 (#1 D.Braxton), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
72.5%
(08:39) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BGSU14 (#5 E.George)Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 13
OPP 14
-1
72.1%
(07:57) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 1 yard to the BGSU15 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 14
OPP 15
0
72.2%
(07:12) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #82 K.Koontz thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 14
OPP 15
+33
72.7%
(07:04) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 07:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:2372% → 71%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.3%
(07:03) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU29 (#1 B.Silvera; #55 M.Bailey)Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
71.9%
(06:18) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 7 yards gain to the BGSU36 (#2 D.Thornton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
71.8%
(05:34) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU41 (#29 C.Reese)Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+17
72.1%
(04:58) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU48, for 17 yards to the Sac St42 (#29 C.Reese; #1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.3%
(04:25) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short middle to #0 J.Scoby thrown to Sac St40Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
72.2%
(04:21) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush left for 3 yards gain to the Sac St39 (#2 D.Thornton)Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OPP 39
-18
72.0%
(03:55) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #3 T.Johnson caught at Sac St35, for 1 yard to the Sac St38, out of bounds at Sac St35 PENALTY BGSU Illegal Forward Pass (#17 J.Kastantin) 5 yards from Sac St38 to Sac St43Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
70.7%
(03:37) #30 R.Kingston punt 18 yards to the Sac St25, out of bounds at Sac St25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 4:1829% → 30%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.1%
(03:33) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Sac St30 (#8 C.Lewis; #15 D.Banks)Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
70.1%
(02:54) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 3 yards gain to the Sac St33 (#6 S.Ellis)Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
70.1%
(02:08) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St34 (#8 C.Lewis; #5 E.George)Similar
Q1 1:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
70.3%
(01:11) #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Sac St36 (#52 E.Durham-Smith; #54 D.Garner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-16
69.3%
(00:30) Shotgun Sacramento St. rush middle for 16 yards loss to the Sac St20, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 26
OWN 20
+8
69.1%
(14:47) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #2 M.Coleman caught at Sac St26, for 8 yards to the Sac St28 (#18 N.Sawyer)Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
69.4%
(14:16) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to Sac St35Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
69.8%
(14:14) #37 H.Adams punt 45 yards to the BGSU27 #5 B.Ridley return 0 yards to the BGSU27 (#26 T.Thomas)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:2069% → 74%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
69.2%
(14:06) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush right for 8 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#22 E.Mullican; #29 C.Reese)Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+10
69.9%
(13:24) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush left for 10 yards gain to the BGSU45 (#29 C.Reese; #52 I.Chala Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
70.0%
(12:48) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Sac St49 (#12 M.Nichols; #93 M.Kindle) PENALTY Sac St UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#18 F.Puloka) 15 yards from Sac St49 to Sac St34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
70.9%
(12:28) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Sac St30 (#1 B.Silvera; #33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q2 11:46
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+4
70.8%
(11:51) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Sac St26 (#12 M.Nichols; #44 D.Davis)Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+6
69.8%
(11:09) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 6 yards gain to the Sac St20 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
70.4%
(10:27) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 5 yards gain to the Sac St15 (#29 C.Reese) PENALTY Sac St Personal Foul (#18 F.Puloka) 8 yards from Sac St15 to Sac St07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
70.0%
(09:58) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Sac St01 (#22 E.Mullican; #93 M.Kindle)Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.2%
(09:37) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:36 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 2:1228% → 26%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.0%
(09:36) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Sac St21 (#23 M.Bradley, #88 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+14
72.2%
(08:56) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at Sac St25, for 14 yards to the Sac St35 (#26 J.Andrews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.4%
(08:23) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left thrown to Sac St42Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-7
72.0%
(08:15) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 14 yards to the Sac St21 (#26 J.Andrews, #5 E.George)Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
73.1%
(07:33) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to Sac St32 broken up by #18 N.Sawyer QB hurried by #23 M.BradleySimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
73.6%
(07:25) #37 H.Adams punt 41 yards to the BGSU38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 5:1473% → 77%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
73.4%
(07:16) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU39 (#18 F.Puloka)Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+20
73.3%
(06:38) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush left for 20 yards gain to the Sac St41 (#33 A.Rocha), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
74.4%
(05:51) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Sac St37 (#9 M.Tullis; #26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
74.4%
(05:08) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 0 yards to the Sac St37 (#18 F.Puloka; #94 A.Aten)Similar
Q2 4:14
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
73.9%
(04:24) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Sac St35 (#90 A.Chambers; #29 C.Reese)Similar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 4
OPP 35
+15
72.7%
(03:38) #30 R.Kingston punt 33 yards to the Sac St02 PENALTY Sac St Roughing The Kicker (#11 I.Moore Jr.) 15 yards from Sac St35 to Sac St20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
74.8%
(03:33) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Sac St18 (#33 A.Rocha; #26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+5
74.9%
(02:51) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #0 J.Scoby caught at Sac St18, for 5 yards to the Sac St13 (#45 X.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 3
OPP 13
-2
74.0%
(02:10) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 2 yards loss to the Sac St15 (#93 M.Kindle)Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
77.4%
(02:00) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 01:56Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:1924% → 23%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.5%
(01:55) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 0 yards to the Sac St25 (#3 D.Pringle; #4 K.Kostus)Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
76.3%
(01:46) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Brown thrown to Sac St25 QB hurried by #5 E.GeorgeSimilar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.1%
(01:42) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush left for 7 yards gain to the Sac St32 (#18 N.Sawyer), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
76.8%
(01:36) #37 H.Adams punt 42 yards to the BGSU26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 1:1777% → 86%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
76.9%
(01:28) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU42, for 17 yards to the BGSU43 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
78.3%
(01:14) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BGSU47 (#33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+12
78.5%
(00:54) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at Sac St45, for 12 yards to the Sac St41 (#3 A.Wallace; #1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
79.0%
(00:37) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy thrown to Sac St22 PENALTY Sac St Pass Interference (#29 C.Reese) 15 yards from Sac St41 to Sac St26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
79.3%
(00:34) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #5 B.Ridley caught at Sac St21, for 6 yards to the Sac St20, out of bounds at Sac St20Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
79.2%
(00:29) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #3 T.Johnson thrown to Sac St01Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+15
78.8%
(00:26) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to Sac St00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Sac St Pass Interference (#23 C.Scott) 15 yards from Sac St20 to Sac St05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
79.6%
(00:14) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St04 (#1 B.Silvera; #3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+5
78.8%
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game (#17 J.Kastantin) 5 yards from Sac St04 to Sac St09. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
78.8%
(00:14) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Scoby thrown to Sac St00Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
85.9%
(00:11) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #19 J.Saffold caught at Sac St00, for 9 yards to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.2%
(00:03) Kneel down by Sacramento St. at Sac St24 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 11MISSED FG
15 plays · 47 yds · 5:2514% → 14%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 7 yards gain to the Sac St32 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
84.8%
(14:21) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to BGSU40 QB hurried by #23 M.BradleySimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
85.3%
(14:14) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at Sac St34, for 2 yards to the Sac St34 (#8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
85.7%
(13:49) #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Sac St37 (#5 E.George), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
85.4%
(13:12) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 7 yards gain to the Sac St44 (#15 D.Banks)Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 3
OWN 44
0
84.8%
(12:36) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #5 R.Brown thrown to Sac St48 broken up by #1 D.BraxtonSimilar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
85.0%
(12:31) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at Sac St46, for 5 yards to the Sac St49 (#0 K.Pascal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
85.1%
(11:57) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush right for 9 yards gain to the BGSU42 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & 1
OPP 42
0
84.6%
(11:17) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right thrown to BGSU35Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+9
84.8%
(11:12) #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BGSU33 (#5 E.George; #15 D.Banks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
84.5%
(10:33) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU28 (#23 M.Bradley; #10 A.Hines III)Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
84.3%
(09:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to BGSU01 broken up by #18 N.SawyerSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
85.2%
(09:36) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to BGSU08 QB hurried by #88 S.BrownSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+46
86.3%
(09:28) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 46 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 09:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 72 yds · 2:5389% → 97%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
88.7%
(09:24) #5 B.Ridley rush right for 25 yards gain to the Sac St47 (#29 C.Reese), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
89.6%
(08:40) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St46 (#94 A.Aten; #26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-2
89.8%
(07:57) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin sacked for loss of 4 yards to the Sac St50 (#22 E.Mullican, #26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 13
50
+20
89.9%
(07:14) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #19 J.Saffold caught at Sac St31, for 20 yards to the Sac St30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
96.5%
(06:32) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 30 yards gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:234% → 3%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
96.1%
(06:24) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #22 I.Ene caught at Sac St25, for 12 yards to the Sac St37 (#26 J.Andrews), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.0%
(05:59) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Sac St42 (#8 C.Lewis; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
96.1%
(05:20) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Sac St45 (#3 D.Pringle; #0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q3 4:24
3RD & 2
OWN 45
-1
96.7%
(04:39) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 1 yard loss to the Sac St44 (#17 J.Olverson; #8 C.Lewis)Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
96.8%
(03:55) #37 H.Adams punt 37 yards to the BGSU19 fair catch by #5 B.Ridley at BGSU19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 4:5897% → 100%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
97.1%
(03:50) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #89 B.Cleaver caught at BGSU18, for 8 yards to the BGSU26 (#3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-1
97.3%
(03:11) #2 N.Amachree rush right for 1 yard loss to the BGSU25 (#16 L.Holani; #5 N.Dimitris)Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
(02:33) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush left for 6 yards gain to the BGSU31 (#18 F.Puloka), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
97.9%
(01:47) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 22 yards gain to the Sac St47 (#12 M.Nichols), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
98.2%
(00:56) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #0 J.Scoby caught at Sac St47, for 2 yards to the Sac St45 (#1 B.Silvera; #33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
98.2%
(00:13) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Sac St41 (#55 M.Bailey) PENALTY Sac St Face Mask (#18 F.Puloka) 15 yards from Sac St41 to Sac St26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
98.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at Sac St15, for 17 yards to the Sac St09 (#5 N.Dimitris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
98.5%
(13:55) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Sac St07 (#55 M.Bailey; #9 M.Tullis)Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
(13:32) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 7 yards gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:32 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 15FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:380% → 0%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.8%
(13:26) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at Sac St35, for 9 yards to the Sac St35 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
(12:58) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 2 yards gain to the Sac St37 (#0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+27
99.8%
(12:39) Shotgun #5 R.Brown rush right for 10 yards loss to the Sac St27 fumbled by #5 R.Brown at Sac St38 forced by #3 D.Pringle recovered by BGSU #15 D.Banks at Sac St27 #15 D.Banks return 27 yards to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:28 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:000% → 0%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
99.9%
(12:24) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Sac St28 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q4 11:32
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
(11:44) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at Sac St33, for 5 yards to the Sac St33 (#18 N.Sawyer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
99.9%
(11:07) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at Sac St39, for 10 yards to the Sac St43 (#18 N.Sawyer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.9%
(10:30) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Sac St45 (#54 D.Garner; #15 D.Banks)Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
99.9%
(10:04) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #3 C.Rhaney thrown to Sac St50Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+7
99.9%
(10:04) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #82 K.Koontz caught at Sac St49, for 7 yards to the BGSU48 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-1
99.9%
(09:13) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 1 yard loss to the BGSU49 (#88 S.Brown; #10 A.Hines III), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(09:12) #20 M.Carey rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU49 (#21 A.Taylor)Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.9%
(08:38) #20 M.Carey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU50 (#16 L.Holani)Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 9
50
+3
99.9%
(08:02) Shotgun #16 A.Novosad pass complete short middle to #47 K.White caught at Sac St48, for 3 yards to the Sac St47 (#22 E.Mullican; #16 L.Holani) PENALTY BGSU Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
Q4 7:28
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
99.9%
(07:33) #30 R.Kingston punt 39 yards to the Sac St08 fair catch by #2 D.Thornton at Sac St08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
99.9%
(07:28) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Sac St14 (#22 J.Holt; #54 D.Garner) PENALTY BGSU Face Mask (#10 A.Hines III) 15 yards from Sac St14 to Sac St29, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
(07:10) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush left for 4 yards gain to the Sac St33 (#30 C.Carter), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+8
99.9%
(06:38) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at Sac St38, for 8 yards to the Sac St41 (#24 D.Arnold II; #7 M.Wright III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
(06:12) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #82 K.Koontz caught at Sac St45, for 4 yards to the Sac St45, out of bounds at Sac St45Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
(05:47) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at BGSU20, for 55 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:37, 1ST DOWN #49 G.Meadors kick attempt good (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
(05:36) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to BGSU12Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.9%
(05:30) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 2 yards loss to the Sac St44 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(04:55) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to Sac St48Similar
Q4 4:50
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
99.9%
(04:53) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to Sac St49 QB hurried by #23 M.Bradley and #3 D.Pringle, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20END OF HALF
8 plays · 33 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
(04:45) Shotgun #33 T.Blackmon rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Sac St42 (#44 D.Davis; #16 L.Holani)Similar
Q4 3:55
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
(04:04) #21 C.Lovett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Sac St37 (#44 D.Davis; #19 M.Tucker)Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
(03:21) #33 T.Blackmon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Sac St34 (#91 M.Richardson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
99.9%
(02:37) #20 M.Carey rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St33 (#55 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+18
100.0%
(01:51) Shotgun #16 A.Novosad pass complete short right to #19 J.Saffold caught at Sac St15, for 18 yards to the Sac St15 (#14 J.Holani), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
100.0%
(01:19) #21 C.Lovett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St14 (#99 D.Blake; #91 M.Richardson)Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+3
100.0%
(00:39) #33 T.Blackmon rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Sac St11 (#16 L.Holani)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:04
(00:11) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #19 J.Saffold caught at Sac St00, for 9 yards to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
+7.1
TD · Q3 6:25
(06:32) #1 A.Dendy rush left for 30 yards gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:25, 1ST DOWN #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
+6.6
TD · Q2 9:36
(09:37) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Sac St00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:36 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com