Try the model
EMU

Eastern Michigan 38 at Massachusetts 14

MASS
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreEMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:50 · (14:58) #39 D.Hull punt 53 yards to the UMass38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−3.5Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Pregame prior+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:38: (05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete deep right to #85 K.Isaac caught at UMass03, for 27 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz) — EMU win probability +3.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:55: (01:59) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz) — EMU win probability +9.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:28: (00:40) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at EMU15, for 34 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) — MASS win probability +13.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:10: (10:12) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #9 J.Long caught at UMass00, for 2 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz) — EMU win probability +12.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:46: (09:49) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 9 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:46 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz) — EMU win probability +11.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4EMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:54MASS 4th & 4 at MASS 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:50EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:04MASS 4th & 10 at EMU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:55EMU 4th & 2 at MASS 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    47.4%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 3:43MASS 4th & 3 at EMU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%−2.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    7.5%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q4 12:17MASS 4th & 11 at MASS 27, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  7. Q4 4:07EMU 4th & 2 at MASS 9, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 5:38EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:55EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:28MASS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:10EMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:46EMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:13EMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:02MASS Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:5353% → 53%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
53.0%
(14:58) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #83 R.Adkins caught at UMass35, for 15 yards to the UMass40 (#9 D.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
53.1%
(14:22) #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass44 (#9 D.Williams; #4 J.Salas)Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
53.4%
(13:46) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass38, for 2 yards to the UMass46 (#4 J.Salas)Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
53.4%
(13:04) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Griffin Jr. thrown to EMU46 broken up by #9 D.WilliamsSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
53.3%
(12:59) #43 E.Phillipson punt 54 yards to the EMU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 2TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 7:1047% → 51%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.3%
(12:53) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short middle to #5 H.Mack thrown to EMU30 broken up by #38 Z.DanielSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
53.3%
(12:47) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 8 yards gain to the EMU28 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
53.4%
(11:51) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 7 yards gain to the EMU35 (#2 J.Nobles; #44 T.Hinspeter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
53.3%
(11:35) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #3 B.Prosper caught at EMU37, for 6 yards to the EMU41, out of bounds at EMU41Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
53.1%
(11:01) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush left for 3 yards gain to the EMU44 (#5 T.Martin; #92 R.Johnson)Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+16
53.2%
(10:16) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 56 yards gain (16) to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:04, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY EMU Holding (#85 K.Isaac) 10 yards from UMass40 to UMass50Similar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
50
-5
53.0%
(10:00) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #24 J.Mattord caught at EMU43, for 5 yards loss to the EMU45 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+5
53.5%
(09:17) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short middle to #85 K.Isaac caught at UMass42, for 23 yards to the UMass32 (#0 I.Reed) PENALTY EMU Illegal Motion (#85 K.Isaac) 5 yards from EMU45 to EMU40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+12
53.4%
(08:48) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #3 B.Prosper caught at EMU45, for 12 yards to the UMass48, out of bounds at UMass48Similar
Q1 8:02
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+13
53.1%
(08:14) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short middle to #9 J.Long caught at UMass37, for 13 yards to the UMass35 (#38 Z.Daniel; #15 K.Bendolph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
52.6%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #9 J.Long caught at UMass35, for 5 yards to the UMass30 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+10
52.5%
(07:06) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush right for 10 yards gain to the UMass20 (#0 I.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
52.5%
(06:26) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 20 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:21 PENALTY EMU Holding (#9 J.Long) 10 yards from UMass20 to UMass30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+3
52.8%
(06:19) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass27 (#5 T.Martin; #9 J.Krueger)Similar
Q1 5:38
2ND & 17
OPP 27
+27
49.2%
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete deep right to #85 K.Isaac caught at UMass03, for 27 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:38, 1ST DOWN #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3FUMBLE
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:2550% → 51%
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+25
50.2%
(05:31) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass33, for 25 yards to the UMass44 (#11 Z.Mowchan; #9 D.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
50.9%
(04:56) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 8 yards gain to the EMU48 (#9 D.Williams; #6 B.Llewellyn)Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
51.3%
(04:30) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 5 yards gain to the EMU43 (#9 D.Williams; #4 J.Salas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.2%
(04:00) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #83 R.Adkins caught at EMU43, for 5 yards to the EMU38 (#5 M.Gilbert; #11 Z.Mowchan)Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
51.1%
(03:25) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 0 yards to the EMU38 (#11 Z.Mowchan; #98 J.Oluwayemi)Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
51.0%
(02:57) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at EMU36, for 5 yards to the EMU33 (#25 R.Adkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
50.6%
(02:17) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush left for 1 yard gain to the EMU32 (#6 B.Llewellyn)Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+18
50.4%
(01:42) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at EMU20, for 18 yards to the EMU14 (#17 C.Dobbs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
50.5%
(00:50) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 6 yards gain to the EMU08 fumbled by #23 E.Faulkner at EMU10 forced by #9 D.Williams recovered by EMU #90 H.Gonzalez at EMU08, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5352% → 51%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
47.9%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 1 yard gain to the EMU09 (#38 Z.Daniel; #95 H.Dirstine)Similar
Q1 0:04
2ND & 9
OWN 9
0
47.8%
(00:07) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short left to #3 B.Prosper thrown to EMU20Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 9
OWN 9
0
48.2%
(00:03) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Long thrown to EMU20Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 9
OWN 9
0
48.6%
(14:58) #39 D.Hull punt 53 yards to the UMass38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5MISSED FG
11 plays · 26 yds · 5:3848% → 46%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
48.4%
(14:48) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass38 (#0 E.McDuffey; #98 J.Oluwayemi)Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
48.1%
(14:14) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass35, for 0 yards to the UMass38 (#9 D.Williams; #11 Z.Mowchan)Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+11
47.4%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass43, for 11 yards to the UMass49, out of bounds at UMass49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
48.8%
(13:05) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete deep middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at EMU02, for 49 yards to the EMU02 (#29 D.Rogers) PENALTY UMass Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#64 P.Miller) 5 yards from UMass49 to UMass44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+13
47.6%
(12:33) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 13 yards gain to the EMU43 (#9 D.Williams; #29 D.Rogers)Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+7
49.0%
(11:58) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush right for 7 yards gain to the EMU36, out of bounds at EMU36, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
48.9%
(11:28) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 4 yards gain to the EMU32 (#9 D.Williams; #98 J.Oluwayemi)Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+10
49.6%
(10:50) Shotgun #6 J.Williams-Thomas rush right for 2 yards gain to the EMU30 (#58 P.Christian; #0 E.McDuffey) PENALTY UMass Holding (#66 G.Knox III) 10 yards from EMU32 to EMU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+5
47.4%
(10:27) Shotgun #6 J.Williams-Thomas rush right for 5 yards gain to the EMU37 (#0 E.McDuffey; #11 Z.Mowchan)Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+1
47.2%
(09:48) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at EMU37, for 1 yard to the EMU36 (#10 T.Boykin)Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 10
OPP 36
+54
45.5%
(09:07) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 09:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 6TD
17 plays · 64 yds · 6:5857% → 75%
Q2 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
43.5%
(09:02) Shotgun #1 N.Kim rush middle for 2 yards loss to the EMU34 (#55 Z.Morris)Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+4
43.5%
(08:25) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #85 K.Isaac caught at EMU38, for 4 yards to the EMU38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 7:44
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+28
41.7%
(07:44) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #3 B.Prosper caught at EMU50, for 13 yards to the UMass49 (#22 J.Harmon), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMass Holding declined EMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 B.Prosper) 15 yards from UMass49 to EMU36Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
40.8%
(05:55) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #9 J.Long caught at EMU43, for 12 yards to the EMU48 (#44 T.Hinspeter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
40.0%
(05:55) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass48 (#3 K.Bournes)Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
39.7%
(05:55) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short left to #86 D.Wilkins thrown to UMass40Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+15
40.4%
(05:53) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete deep right to #3 B.Prosper thrown to UMass26 broken up by #22 J.Harmon PENALTY UMass UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#92 R.Johnson) 15 yards from UMass48 to UMass33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
39.3%
(05:48) Shotgun #1 N.Kim rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass29 (#9 J.Krueger; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+9
39.0%
(05:20) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short left to #85 K.Isaac thrown to UMass17, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (#4 C.Stanley) 9 yards from UMass29 to UMass20, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
38.6%
(04:46) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMass14 (#8 M.Robinson II)Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+13
38.5%
(04:32) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush middle for 13 yards gain to the UMass01 (#4 C.Stanley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.9%
(03:49) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass01 (#5 T.Martin; #6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.8%
(03:15) #1 N.Kim rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass01 (#6 J.Iseah; #3 K.Bournes)Similar
Q2 2:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
36.4%
(02:39) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 1 yard loss to the UMass02 (#6 J.Iseah; #55 Z.Morris)Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
25.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:2231% → 46%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.1%
(01:54) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #83 R.Adkins thrown to UMass33 broken up by #10 T.BoykinSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.8%
(01:46) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass26, for 3 yards to the UMass28 (#29 D.Rogers), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
30.4%
(01:16) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #83 R.Adkins caught at UMass36, for 8 yards to the UMass36 (#6 B.Llewellyn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
31.5%
(01:03) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.Griffin Jr. thrown to EMU21Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
30.8%
(00:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #17 D.Elliott caught at UMass41, for 10 yards to the UMass46 (#0 E.McDuffey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
32.6%
(00:45) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Harding thrown to EMU40 QB hurried by #54 Q.Byas PENALTY EMU Personal Foul (#98 J.Oluwayemi) 15 yards from UMass46 to EMU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
33.1%
(00:40) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #11 M.Dowling caught at EMU33, for 5 yards to the EMU34 (#9 D.Williams), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+34
46.3%
(00:40) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at EMU15, for 34 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 8END OF HALF
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:1862% → 61%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
38.5%
(00:27) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush right for 12 yards gain to the EMU37 (#42 A.DePaepe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.5%
(00:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short middle to #24 J.Mattord caught at EMU41, for 6 yards to the EMU43 (#6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+14
37.4%
(00:11) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #5 H.Mack caught at UMass43, for 14 yards to the UMass43 (#15 K.Bendolph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
38.7%
(00:06) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #9 J.Long caught at UMass38, for 5 yards to the UMass38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4661% → 79%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete deep left to #85 K.Isaac thrown to EMU45Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.2%
(14:55) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 8 yards gain to the EMU33 (#3 K.Bournes), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 14:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
37.8%
(14:18) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush right for 4 yards gain to the EMU37 (#38 Z.Daniel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
37.0%
(13:39) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush middle for 0 yards (0) to the EMU37 (#55 Z.Morris; #90 T.Passmore, Jr.) PENALTY EMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#3 B.Prosper) 15 yards from EMU37 to EMU22. Eastern Mich. #3 B.Prosper has been disqualifiedSimilar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 25
OWN 22
+29
38.4%
(13:12) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete deep middle to #5 H.Mack caught at EMU45, for 29 yards to the UMass49 (#0 I.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
35.2%
(12:50) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #85 K.Isaac caught at UMass45, for 10 yards to the UMass39 (#6 J.Iseah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
34.9%
(12:18) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #24 J.Mattord caught at UMass43, for 21 yards to the UMass18 (#5 T.Martin), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
34.0%
(11:41) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short middle to #86 D.Wilkins thrown to UMass05 broken up by #13 R.Sexil, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (#13 R.Sexil) 15 yards from UMass18 to UMass03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
34.0%
(11:34) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush left for 2 yards gain to the UMass01 (#95 H.Dirstine; #38 Z.Daniel)Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
33.6%
(10:49) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush left for 1 yard loss to the UMass02 (#92 R.Johnson; #3 K.Bournes)Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.8%
(10:12) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #9 J.Long caught at UMass00, for 2 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-31
24.7%
(10:00) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass intercepted by #17 C.Dobbs at UMass40 #17 C.Dobbs return 31 yards to the UMass09 (#14 C.Kimmons IV)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0680% → 91%
Q3 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.1%
(09:52) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short middle to #5 H.Mack thrown to UMass00 broken up by #0 I.ReedSimilar
Q3 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.7%
(09:49) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 9 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:46 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12DOWNS
13 plays · 36 yds · 5:1113% → 8%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.6%
(08:58) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 3 yards gain to the UMass28 (#11 Z.Mowchan)Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
12.7%
(08:48) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMass29 (#54 Q.Byas; #6 B.Llewellyn)Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
12.3%
(08:32) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMass35 (#33 C.Evans; #58 P.Christian), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
12.2%
(07:59) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short left to #17 D.Elliott thrown to UMass40 broken up by #11 Z.MowchanSimilar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
11.9%
(07:53) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMass41 (#55 J.Thomas)Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
12.0%
(07:15) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass45, for 4 yards to the UMass45 (#17 C.Dobbs), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.8%
(06:32) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 0 yards to the UMass45 (#25 R.Adkins)Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+10
8.9%
(05:58) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass50, for 10 yards to the EMU45, out of bounds at EMU45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
9.0%
(05:27) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #14 C.Kimmons IV caught at EMU44, for 7 yards to the EMU38 (#11 Z.Mowchan), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-1
8.8%
(04:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush left for 1 yard loss to the EMU39 (#88 R.Hardin)Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
8.4%
(04:24) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush right for 0 yards to the EMU39 (#98 J.Oluwayemi; #88 R.Hardin)Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
7.5%
(03:44) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Lewis thrown to EMU35 broken up by #17 C.Dobbs, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:2195% → 99%
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
4.6%
(03:41) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush middle for 7 yards gain to the EMU46 (#38 Z.Daniel)Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
4.4%
(03:08) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush middle for 2 yards gain to the EMU48 (#95 H.Dirstine)Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+5
4.1%
(02:24) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMass47 (#38 Z.Daniel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
3.8%
(01:44) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete deep left to #4 Q.Fracassi thrown to UMass20Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
3.8%
(01:40) Shotgun #28 B.Bennett rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass42 (#3 K.Bournes; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+6
3.6%
(01:02) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short middle to #5 H.Mack caught at UMass36, for 6 yards to the UMass36 (#13 R.Sexil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
3.5%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short middle to #5 H.Mack thrown to UMass17Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
3.5%
(00:34) Shotgun #1 N.Kim rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UMass28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
3.3%
(14:59) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass25 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #6 J.Iseah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
0.8%
(14:18) Shotgun #24 J.Mattord rush middle for 25 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:13, 1ST DOWN #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
1.0%
(14:05) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass20, for 11 yards to the UMass28 (#10 T.Boykin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
0.9%
(13:30) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass31 (#99 W.Tayou)Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-4
0.6%
(12:58) Shotgun #8 K.Dia-Johnson rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UMass27 (#98 J.Oluwayemi)Similar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
0.6%
(12:26) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short left to #19 J.Lewis thrown to UMass38Similar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
0.6%
(12:20) #43 E.Phillipson punt 46 yards to the EMU27 fair catch by #4 Q.Fracassi at EMU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15FG
14 plays · 64 yds · 8:0399% → 100%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
0.7%
(12:16) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 5 yards gain to the EMU32, out of bounds at EMU32Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+5
0.7%
(11:42) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete deep right to #5 H.Mack thrown to UMass35 broken up by #4 C.Stanley PENALTY UMass Offside (#10 A.Melvin) 5 yards from EMU32 to EMU37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.6%
(11:24) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush middle for 2 yards gain to the EMU39 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #90 T.Passmore, Jr.)Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
0.6%
(10:45) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush middle for 2 yards gain to the EMU41 (#90 T.Passmore, Jr.; #19 D.Chiavegato)Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+12
0.5%
(10:00) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #4 Q.Fracassi caught at EMU50, for 12 yards to the UMass47 (#3 K.Bournes), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.4%
(09:13) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Floyd thrown to UMass40Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
0.4%
(09:09) Shotgun #22 D.Johnson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass44 (#0 I.Reed; #90 T.Passmore, Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+16
0.4%
(08:29) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #22 D.Johnson caught at UMass48, for 16 yards to the UMass28 (#19 D.Chiavegato), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
0.3%
(07:48) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #11 A.Floyd caught at UMass23, for 5 yards to the UMass23 (#19 D.Chiavegato)Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
0.3%
(07:07) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short right to #88 T.Lemaster caught at UMass18, for 6 yards to the UMass17 (#3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
0.3%
(06:21) Shotgun #22 D.Johnson rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass17 (#95 H.Dirstine; #42 A.DePaepe)Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
0.2%
(05:32) Shotgun #1 N.Kim rush right for 6 yards gain to the UMass11 (#0 I.Reed)Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+2
0.2%
(04:53) Shotgun #22 D.Johnson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass09 (#95 H.Dirstine)Similar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
0.2%
(04:09) #46 R.Kessinger field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz), clock 04:07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:580% → 1%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.2%
(04:07) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMass32 (#55 J.Thomas; #0 E.McDuffey)Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
0.2%
(03:29) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 1 yard gain to the UMass33 (#99 W.Tayou; #0 E.McDuffey)Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
0.2%
(02:51) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMass40 (#29 D.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
0.1%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass48, for 27 yards to the EMU33 (#29 D.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
0.1%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at EMU30, for 9 yards to the EMU24 (#10 T.Boykin; #40 B.Eliuk)Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+21
0.1%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 21 yards gain to the EMU03 (#20 R.Hester), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.9%
(01:02) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 3 yards gain to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:02 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17END OF GAME
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:29100% → 100%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
0.5%
(01:00) Shotgun #22 D.Johnson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the EMU35 (#3 K.Bournes; #19 D.Chiavegato), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
0.4%
(00:23) Kneel down by Eastern Mich. at EMU34 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
(00:40) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at EMU15, for 34 yards to the EMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:28, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)
+13.2
TD · Q3 10:10
(10:12) Shotgun #1 N.Kim pass complete short left to #9 J.Long caught at UMass00, for 2 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:10 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)
-12.8
TD · Q3 9:46
(09:49) Shotgun #15 A.Blue rush left for 9 yards gain to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:46 #46 R.Kessinger kick attempt good (H: #39 D.Hull, LS: #42 J.Kautz)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com