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WMU

Western Michigan 20 at Buffalo 17

BUF
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:18 · (12:23) #25 R.Millmore punt 46 yards to the BUF00, Touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior−20.4Home team on offense+2.2Garbage-time factor+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:23: (14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:23 #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever) — BUF win probability +3.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 13:00: (13:03) #31 O.Hautanen field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever), clock 13:00 — BUF win probability +12.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:44: (06:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 5 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:44 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle) — WMU win probability +34.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:19: (01:22) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 01:19 — WMU win probability +28.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36: (00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU02 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.) — BUF win probability +32.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:22BUF 4th & 16 at BUF 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:35WMU 4th & 20 at WMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:49BUF 4th & 1 at WMU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:23BUF 4th & 1 at WMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−0.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−2.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:03WMU 4th & 3 at BUF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:18BUF 4th & 16 at WMU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−1.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    42.0%−0.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:46WMU 4th & 23 at BUF 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−5.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:18WMU 4th & 11 at BUF 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−1.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:03BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 43, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:34WMU 4th & 2 at WMU 30, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:00BUF 4th & 3 at WMU 16, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.6%−1.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    45.6%−17.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:14BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−2.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:19WMU 4th & 1 at BUF 21, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%−6.0
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.7%−36.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:02BUF 4th & 2 at WMU 2, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.1 ptsWent for it · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.3%−3.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.0%−35.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:13WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:05BUF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:23BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:44WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:2814% → 15%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.0%
(14:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BUF30 (#47 D.Moon)Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
14.3%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BUF22 (#12 D.Moore), fumble by #7 J.Wright recovered by BUF #7 J.Wright at BUF22, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-2
14.3%
(13:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BUF19 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr., #31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
14.6%
(13:36) #90 E.Stumpf punt 40 yards to the WMU41 fair catch by #5 K.Gouldsby at WMU41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 3:5485% → 85%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
14.7%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 9 yards gain to the WMU50 (#1 S.Brown)Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 1
50
+8
14.9%
(12:57) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BUF42 (#4 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
15.1%
(12:15) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at BUF33, for 17 yards to the BUF25 (#0 K.Blackwell; #1 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
15.3%
(11:38) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 3 yards gain to the BUF22 (#99 C.Evans)Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
15.6%
(10:58) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF18 (#41 Z.Bergmann)Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+9
16.0%
(10:09) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #8 E.Nelson caught at BUF20, for 9 yards to the BUF09 (#6 M.Greer; #4 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
15.1%
(09:25) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 9 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:13 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
2 plays · 59 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+59
17.0%
(09:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete deep middle to #3 P.Clacks III caught at WMU24, for 59 yards to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:05, 1ST DOWN #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:2383% → 81%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
16.7%
(09:01) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 8 yards gain to the WMU33 (#6 M.Greer)Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
16.8%
(08:39) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the WMU39 (#23 X.Leonard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
17.0%
(08:03) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU43, for 4 yards to the WMU43 (#5 M.Crawford), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-2
17.2%
(07:29) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush middle for 2 yards loss to the WMU41 (#5 M.Crawford; #99 C.Evans)Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-7
17.8%
(06:42) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WMU34 (#99 C.Evans)Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 15
OWN 34
+5
18.8%
(05:52) PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from WMU34 to WMU29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 20
OWN 29
+18
18.9%
(05:35) #25 R.Millmore punt 52 yards to the BUF19 #6 M.Greer return 18 yards to the BUF37 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
15 plays · 63 yds · 6:0519% → 28%
Q1 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
18.8%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush left for 16 yards gain to the WMU47 (#22 A.Louis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
19.5%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short left thrown to WMU40 QB hurried by #2 S.Gardner, Jr.Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
19.6%
(05:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 9 yards gain to the WMU38 (#41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 38
0
19.7%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU38 (#94 A.Tounkara)Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+5
20.2%
(03:56) Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU33 (#22 A.Louis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
21.3%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush right for 0 yards to the WMU33 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.; #6 J.Pope)Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+18
22.0%
(02:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #2 J.Andrews caught at WMU15, for 18 yards to the WMU15 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
22.4%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU11 (#98 D.Frazier)Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+7
23.0%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 7 yards gain to the WMU04 (#6 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.4%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU04 (#41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
23.8%
(00:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU02 (#9 W.Gerig)Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
23.6%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU01 (#12 D.Moore; #47 D.Moon)Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.5%
(14:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:23 #31 O.Hautanen kick attempt good (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 5:1073% → 68%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
27.0%
(14:23) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 4 yards gain to the WMU29 (#0 K.Blackwell)Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
27.4%
(13:55) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 0 yards to the WMU29 (#1 S.Brown; #17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
28.7%
(13:12) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #8 E.Nelson caught at WMU37, for 8 yards to the WMU37 QB hurried by #17 L.Goodwin (#23 X.Leonard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
28.3%
(12:35) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU39 (#1 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
28.8%
(12:07) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #8 E.Nelson caught at WMU37, for 4 yards to the WMU43 (#1 S.Brown)Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+15
28.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short middle to #2 A.Chenault thrown to WMU45 PENALTY BUF Pass Interference (#33 J.Owens) BUF UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 17 yards from WMU43 to BUF40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
29.2%
(10:39) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 5 yards loss to the BUF45 (#33 J.Owens)Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 15
OPP 45
+9
30.5%
(10:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at BUF37, for 9 yards to the BUF36 (#6 M.Greer)Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+3
30.5%
(09:56) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 3 yards gain to the BUF33 (#33 J.Owens; #7 J.Keough)Similar
Q2 9:03
4TH & 3
OPP 33
0
32.1%
(09:16) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BUF30 broken up by #88 R.Stinchcomb, TURNOVER ON DOWNS. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL UPHELDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:3734% → 38%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
33.7%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF37 (#12 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
35.3%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush left for 4 yards gain to the BUF41 (#94 A.Tounkara)Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+4
36.5%
(07:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush left for 4 yards gain to the BUF45 (#10 J.Betts), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WMU Tripping (#10 J.Betts) 15 yards from BUF45 to WMU40, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
38.2%
(07:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush left for 3 yards loss to the WMU43 (#94 A.Tounkara; #2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-5
38.3%
(06:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short left to #4 M.Burch caught at WMU48, for 5 yards loss to the WMU48 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 18
OPP 48
+2
38.0%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at WMU49, for 2 yards to the WMU46 (#22 A.Louis)Similar
Q2 5:18
4TH & 16
OPP 46
0
37.6%
(05:28) #90 E.Stumpf punt 46 yards to the WMU00, Touchback PENALTY BUF Illegal Formation 5 yards from WMU20 to WMU25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:2562% → 60%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.2%
(05:18) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU28 (#97 C.Climes; #41 Z.Bergmann)Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
38.8%
(04:32) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU29 (#88 R.Stinchcomb; #15 S.Vessah)Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
40.3%
(04:04) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #2 A.Chenault caught at WMU40, for 12 yards to the WMU41 (#41 Z.Bergmann), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BUF Pass Interference declinedSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+47
39.3%
(03:31) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #88 N.Levicki caught at BUF43, for 47 yards to the BUF12 (#5 M.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
37.0%
(02:45) PENALTY WMU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BUF12 to BUF17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 15
OPP 17
-11
37.9%
(02:25) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 11 yards loss to the BUF28 fumbled by #24 O.Mataele at BUF20 forced by #41 Z.Bergmann, out of bounds at BUF28Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 26
OPP 28
0
40.6%
(01:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right to #6 J.Buckley thrown to BUF31 QB hurried by #17 L.GoodwinSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 26
OPP 28
+3
42.6%
(01:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at BUF32, for 3 yards to the BUF25 (#1 S.Brown) PENALTY WMU Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 1:46
4TH & 23
OPP 25
+43
39.9%
(01:49) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 01:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9END OF HALF
14 plays · 20 yds · 1:0138% → 41%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
37.6%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF28 (#47 D.Moon; #12 D.Moore)Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
38.4%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush left for 2 yards gain to the BUF30 (#41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+3
37.8%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF33 (#47 D.Moon; #14 D.McCullough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
38.5%
(00:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at BUF43, for 10 yards to the BUF43 (#17 C.Barber), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
40.3%
(00:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at WMU48, for 9 yards to the WMU48, out of bounds at WMU48Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
41.2%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right thrown to WMU45Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+1
40.5%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 1 yard gain to the WMU47 (#4 A.Alexander), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
41.2%
PENALTY BUF Illegal Snap (#74 N.Francavilla) 5 yards from WMU47 to BUF48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+1
39.9%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF49 (#31 D.Echoles Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 14
OWN 49
-7
40.5%
(00:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BUF42 (#4 A.Alexander)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2163% → 60%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
36.9%
(14:48) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short middle to #83 R.Brotherton caught at WMU40, for 14 yards to the WMU44 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
35.5%
(14:31) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BUF45 (#1 S.Brown; #4 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-6
35.0%
(13:50) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 3 yards loss to the BUF48 lateral to #1 E.Littlejohn for 6 yards loss to the WMU46 (#99 C.Evans)Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 19
OWN 46
0
38.5%
(12:59) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short right thrown to WMU50 QB hurried by #23 X.Leonard PENALTY WMU Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 19
OWN 46
+8
39.4%
(12:54) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush left for 8 yards gain to the BUF46 (#4 R.Davis), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
40.4%
(12:23) #25 R.Millmore punt 46 yards to the BUF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 23 yds · 6:0740% → 50%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
39.8%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush left for 0 yards to the BUF20 (#10 J.Betts; #2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
40.2%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush left for 2 yards gain to the BUF22 (#94 A.Tounkara) PENALTY BUF Holding (#51 T.Davis) 10 yards from BUF20 to BUF10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+10
43.7%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush left for 10 yards gain to the BUF20 (#41 Z.Tibbs)Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-10
43.1%
(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 10 yards to the BUF10 (#15 K.Burley)Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 20
OWN 10
+15
42.8%
(10:09) #90 E.Stumpf punt 44 yards to the WMU46 #5 K.Gouldsby return 4 yards to the WMU50 (#19 M.Hilty; #52 J.Garbolino) PENALTY WMU Personal Foul (#36 F.Brown) 15 yards from BUF10 to BUF25, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
46.1%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF28 (#41 Z.Tibbs; #14 D.McCullough)Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
46.8%
(09:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush left for 6 yards gain to the BUF34 (#8 J.Sims; #14 D.McCullough)Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
47.9%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF37 (#12 D.Moore; #10 J.Betts), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
49.3%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BUF39 (#4 A.Alexander; #10 J.Betts)Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-7
50.9%
(07:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright sacked for loss of 7 yards to the BUF32 (#98 D.Frazier)Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+11
47.5%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush left for 11 yards gain to the BUF43 (#14 D.McCullough)Similar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+4
49.5%
(06:03) #90 E.Stumpf punt 50 yards to the WMU07 #5 K.Gouldsby return 4 yards to the WMU11 (#7 J.Keough; #48 J.Stoever)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:2251% → 46%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
48.7%
(06:03) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 1 yard gain to the WMU12 (#1 S.Brown)Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
50.0%
(05:28) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #7 B.Brooks caught at WMU17, for 5 yards to the WMU17 (#6 M.Greer), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+5
51.5%
(05:08) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #8 E.Nelson caught at WMU22, for 5 yards to the WMU22 (Buffalo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
50.3%
(04:01) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WMU15 (#17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 17
OWN 15
0
51.7%
(03:18) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left thrown to WMU20 broken up by #88 R.StinchcombSimilar
Q3 3:04
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+15
53.6%
(03:09) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #2 A.Chenault caught at WMU25, for 15 yards to the WMU30 (#6 M.Greer)Similar
Q3 2:34
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
53.9%
(02:40) #25 R.Millmore punt 44 yards to the BUF26 fair catch by #6 M.Greer at BUF26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 4:2655% → 77%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
55.3%
(02:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #2 J.Andrews caught at BUF34, for 8 yards to the BUF34 (#1 J.Franklin), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+8
57.6%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BUF42 (#0 B.Anes; #14 D.McCullough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
59.0%
(01:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BUF45 (#6 J.Pope)Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+18
60.1%
(00:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at WMU43, for 18 yards to the WMU37 (#8 J.Sims), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
61.6%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU32 (#10 J.Betts)Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+9
63.5%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 9 yards gain to the WMU23 (#14 D.McCullough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
64.3%
(14:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush right for 3 yards gain to the WMU20 (#98 D.Frazier)Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
64.9%
(13:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the WMU16 (#6 J.Pope; #0 B.Anes)Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
63.8%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short left to #3 P.Clacks III thrown to WMU00Similar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+35
76.7%
(13:03) #31 O.Hautanen field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #90 E.Stumpf, LS: #48 J.Stoever), clock 13:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:0429% → 62%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.2%
(12:51) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 5 yards gain to the WMU30 (#99 C.Evans; #5 M.Crawford)Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
71.4%
(12:12) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the WMU32 (#41 Z.Bergmann; #17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q4 11:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
73.2%
(11:41) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #6 J.Buckley caught at WMU31, for 4 yards to the WMU36 (#6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
72.5%
(11:08) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #88 N.Levicki caught at WMU41, for 14 yards to the WMU50 (#4 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
50
+16
70.0%
(10:41) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #3 K.Boone-Nelson caught at BUF34, for 16 yards to the BUF34 (#0 K.Blackwell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
68.0%
(10:07) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 9 yards gain to the BUF25 (#6 M.Greer; #41 Z.Bergmann)Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+8
68.1%
(09:31) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush right for 8 yards gain to the BUF17 (#5 M.Crawford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
68.8%
(08:51) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #88 N.Levicki caught at BUF10, for 8 yards to the BUF09 (#5 M.Crawford)Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+2
69.8%
(08:11) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the BUF07 (#2 S.Bracey; #6 M.Greer), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
73.0%
(07:36) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 2 yards gain to the BUF05 (#41 Z.Bergmann; #17 L.Goodwin)Similar
Q4 6:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
38.1%
(06:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 5 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:44 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4952% → 50%
Q4 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
52.0%
(06:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF17 (#4 A.Alexander)Similar
Q4 5:52
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+6
52.5%
(05:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BUF23 (#10 J.Betts; #12 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
53.2%
(05:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BUF24 (#10 J.Betts; #47 D.Moon)Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+4
53.2%
(05:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BUF28 (#90 J.Benson)Similar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
52.4%
(04:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Morrow thrown to BUF40 broken up by #94 A.Tounkara. The previous play is under automatic review - "Penalty enforcement". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 4:14
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
49.8%
(04:14) #90 E.Stumpf punt 72 yards to the WMU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 2:4652% → 88%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
47.6%
(04:05) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush right for 9 yards gain to the WMU29 (#17 L.Goodwin; #0 K.Blackwell)Similar
Q4 3:33
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
44.7%
(03:46) Shotgun #6 J.Buckley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU31 (#1 S.Brown; #4 R.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
47.1%
(03:14) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short right to #88 N.Levicki caught at WMU33, for 7 yards to the WMU38 (#33 J.Owens)Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
43.9%
(02:58) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 5 yards gain to the WMU43 (#2 S.Bracey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
44.1%
(02:24) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 5 yards gain to the WMU48 (#6 M.Greer; #1 S.Brown)Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+11
43.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BUF41 (#1 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
42.6%
(01:48) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass complete short left to #6 J.Buckley caught at BUF46, for 11 yards to the BUF30 (#6 M.Greer), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
40.4%
(01:34) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry pass incomplete short left to #8 E.Nelson thrown to BUF27Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+2
40.4%
(01:31) Shotgun #24 O.Mataele rush left for 2 yards gain to the BUF28 (#88 R.Stinchcomb)Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
41.3%
(01:20) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 7 yards gain to the BUF21 (#1 S.Brown). The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the line to gain". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (01:20) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush right for 8 yards gain to the BUF20 (#1 S.Brown), 1ST DOWN)Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 21
+38
12.1%
(01:22) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 01:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17DOWNS
15 plays · 74 yds · 1:1327% → 26%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
27.4%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at BUF43, for 18 yards to the BUF43 (#8 J.Sims), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
29.3%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short middle to #6 C.Morrow thrown to WMU42 broken up by #14 D.McCullough QB hurried by #31 D.Echoles Jr.Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
27.1%
(01:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Andrews thrown to BUF50Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+13
24.9%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete short right to #6 C.Morrow caught at WMU44, for 13 yards to the WMU44, out of bounds at WMU44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
29.7%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass complete deep right to #6 C.Morrow caught at WMU24, for 20 yards to the WMU24 (#14 D.McCullough), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
39.4%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #6 C.Morrow thrown to WMU10, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY WMU Pass Interference (#8 J.Sims) 9 yards from WMU24 to WMU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
39.4%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush middle for 11 yards gain to the WMU04 (#14 D.McCullough), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
40.2%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU02 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
40.0%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright pass incomplete short right to #5 C.Walker thrown to WMU00 broken up by #10 J.BettsSimilar
Q4 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.2%
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 M.Burch rush middle for 0 yards to the WMU02 (#47 D.Moon; #2 S.Gardner, Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
25.5%
(00:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 J.Wright rush left for 1 yard gain to the WMU01 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.; #1 J.Franklin), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
7.9%
(00:00) #12 B.Lowry rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU03 (#15 S.Vessah)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:44
(06:56) Shotgun #12 B.Lowry rush left for 5 yards gain to the BUF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:44 #32 D.Kelly kick attempt good (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle)
-34.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:36
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 N.Hill rush middle for 2 yards gain to the WMU02 (#2 S.Gardner, Jr.)
+32
FG · Q4 1:19
(01:22) #32 D.Kelly field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #25 R.Millmore, LS: #46 D.Doyle), clock 01:19
-28.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com