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MASS

Massachusetts 35 at Sacramento State 6

SAC
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · Hornet Stadium
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Win probability · SAC
modelSAC aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playSAC scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:11 · (07:11) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 07:11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−2.0Score differential−0.6Pregame prior−12.7Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:48: (14:52) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 14:48 — SAC win probability +2.4 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 10:27: (10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 32 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:27, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) — MASS win probability +7.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:45: (01:45) #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at SAC00, for 7 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) — MASS win probability +8.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:22: Timeout Sacramento State, clock 00:22 — SAC win probability +9.1 pts (now 28%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:31: (13:46) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass intercepted by #44 T.Hinspeter at SAC49 #44 T.Hinspeter return 49 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:31 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) — MASS win probability +7.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SAC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MASS made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
  1. Q1 9:37SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:11MASS 4th & 6 at SAC 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:48SAC 4th & 2 at MASS 2, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.6%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−5.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:41MASS 4th & 7 at MASS 17, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:46SAC 4th & 8 at MASS 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:44SAC 4th & 10 at MASS 21, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:00SAC 4th & 19 at SAC 38, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−3.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:52MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 18, up 22
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%−1.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:11SAC 4th & 1 at MASS 43, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:07SAC 4th & 5 at MASS 20, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:55MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 29, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:18SAC 4th & 15 at SAC 36, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:04MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 34, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:59SAC 4th & 10 at SAC 20, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:00MASS 4th & 1 at SAC 41, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:48MASS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:27MASS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:45MASS Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:31MASS Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:27MASS Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0664% → 65%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
35.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #2 T.Harding rush right for 17 yards gain to the UMass42, out of bounds at UMass42, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
35.8%
(14:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass47 (#33 A.Rocha; #45 X.Williams)Similar
Q1 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+33
36.0%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 33 yards gain to the SAC20 (#22 E.Mullican), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
36.1%
(13:06) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #11 M.Dowling caught at SAC21, for 2 yards to the SAC18 (#45 X.Williams)Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+5
36.2%
(12:31) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC13 (#58 J.Howard Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
35.4%
(11:56) #5 W.Watson III rush right for 13 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5836% → 36%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
35.7%
(11:43) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SAC22 (#90 T.Passmore, Jr.; #55 Z.Morris)Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
35.8%
(11:06) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #22 I.Ene caught at SAC16, for 4 yards to the SAC26 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 26
-8
35.7%
(10:27) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 8 yards to the SAC18 (#6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 12
OWN 18
0
35.5%
(09:42) #37 H.Adams punt 44 yards to the UMass38 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3MISSED FG
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:1065% → 65%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
35.4%
(09:37) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at SAC46, for 16 yards to the SAC46, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
35.0%
(08:57) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 0 yards to the SAC46 (#45 X.Williams; #90 A.Chambers)Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+20
34.9%
(08:21) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 20 yards gain to the SAC26 (#22 E.Mullican), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
34.8%
(08:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete deep right to #11 M.Dowling thrown to SAC02 QB hurried by #90 A.ChambersSimilar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
34.9%
(08:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete deep right to #19 J.Lewis thrown to SAC00Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+4
35.0%
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SAC22 (#26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+40
35.2%
(07:11) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 07:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 4FG
19 plays · 76 yds · 7:2336% → 39%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
35.7%
PENALTY SAC Personal Foul (#58 J.Howard Jr.) 11 yard from SAC22 to SAC11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
35.6%
(07:08) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush left for 5 yards gain to the SAC16, out of bounds at SAC16Similar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+16
35.7%
(06:41) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #22 I.Ene caught at SAC19, for 16 yards to the SAC32 (#19 D.Chiavegato), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
35.8%
(06:03) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush left for 5 yards gain to the SAC37 (#98 W.DePaepe)Similar
Q1 5:21
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+11
36.3%
(05:24) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC48, for 11 yards to the SAC48, out of bounds at SAC48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
36.6%
(04:52) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UMass48 (#10 A.Melvin; #5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+9
37.0%
(04:15) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UMass39 (#22 J.Harmon; #10 A.Melvin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
37.1%
(03:36) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 6 yards gain to the UMass33 (#10 A.Melvin)Similar
Q1 2:49
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
37.7%
(02:56) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass30 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 2:06
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
36.8%
(02:17) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush left for 2 yards gain to the UMass28 (#0 I.Reed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
37.4%
(01:34) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to UMass04 QB hurried by #98 W.DePaepeSimilar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
37.4%
(01:27) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass26 (#65 S.Suominen; #6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+11
36.8%
(00:45) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at UMass15, for 11 yards to the UMass15 (#22 J.Harmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
37.6%
(00:09) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to UMass00 PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (#0 I.Reed) 13 yards from UMass15 to UMass02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.6%
(00:04) #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass02 (#10 A.Melvin; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.6%
(15:00) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #5 R.Brown thrown to UMass00Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.9%
(14:57) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #5 R.Brown thrown to UMass00 broken up by #13 R.SexilSimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
39.3%
(14:52) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 20 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 14:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1461% → 70%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
38.7%
(14:48) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass18, for 1 yard loss to the UMass24 (#22 E.Mullican)Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
38.8%
(14:18) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass27 (#11 I.Moore Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
39.5%
(13:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #19 J.Lewis caught at UMass35, for 12 yards to the UMass39 (#23 C.Scott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
37.3%
(13:20) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #83 R.Adkins caught at UMass35, for 1 yard loss to the UMass38 (#11 I.Moore Jr.; #99 D.Blake)Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+1
37.5%
(12:38) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #8 K.Dia-Johnson caught at UMass36, for 1 yard to the UMass39 (#1 B.Silvera; #2 D.Thornton)Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+10
38.1%
(11:54) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #83 R.Adkins caught at UMass49, for 10 yards to the UMass49 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
36.8%
(11:04) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at SAC32, for 19 yards to the SAC32 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
29.6%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 32 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:27, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 6FUMBLE
11 plays · 61 yds · 4:2031% → 32%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.2%
(10:27) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 2 yards gain to the SAC27, out of bounds at SAC27 PENALTY SAC Holding (#77 J.Stallworth) 10 yards from SAC25 to SAC15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:06
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+19
31.0%
(10:16) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #16 J.Williams caught at SAC29, for 19 yards to the SAC34 (#0 I.Reed; #1 D.Snyder II)Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
31.5%
(09:33) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Brown thrown to SAC31Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
31.0%
(09:30) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SAC35 (#42 A.DePaepe; #5 T.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
31.0%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SAC43 (#1 D.Snyder II)Similar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+24
31.2%
(08:29) Shotgun #5 R.Brown rush right for 24 yards gain to the UMass33 (#4 C.Stanley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.8%
(07:51) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass33 (#0 I.Reed; #8 M.Robinson II)Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
31.6%
(07:15) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #2 M.Coleman caught at UMass33, for 11 yards to the UMass22 (#3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
31.6%
(06:40) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMass21 (#22 J.Harmon; #55 Z.Morris)Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+7
31.6%
(06:15) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMass14 fumbled by #22 I.Ene at UMass18 forced by #3 K.Bournes recovered by UMass #13 R.Sexil at UMass14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0971% → 70%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
29.5%
(05:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass17 (#26 T.Thomas; #55 M.Bailey)Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 17
0
29.3%
(05:32) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass17 (#45 X.Williams)Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 17
0
29.8%
(04:52) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Lewis thrown to UMass35Similar
Q2 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 17
0
30.3%
(04:46) #43 E.Phillipson punt 0 yards to the UMass17 blocked by #11 I.Moore Jr. recovered by UMass #86 J.Markovich at UMass13, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 8FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5131% → 31%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
31.1%
(04:41) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #16 J.Williams thrown to UMass10 broken up by #55 Z.MorrisSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
31.1%
(04:37) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush right for 2 yards gain to the UMass11 (#55 Z.Morris; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
30.0%
(03:52) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to UMass08Similar
Q2 3:46
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
31.4%
(03:49) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 03:46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5370% → 82%
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.3%
(03:46) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass27 (#12 M.Nichols)Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
30.4%
(03:06) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #19 J.Lewis thrown to UMass36 QB hurried by #55 M.BaileySimilar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
31.2%
PENALTY SAC Offside (#5 N.Dimitris) 5 yards from UMass27 to UMass32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
30.1%
(03:00) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete deep left to #2 T.Harding thrown to SAC40 PENALTY SAC Pass Interference (#3 A.Wallace) 15 yards from UMass32 to UMass47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
28.1%
(02:56) Shotgun #2 T.Harding rush left for 4 yards gain to the SAC49 (#6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
27.7%
(02:25) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush right for 1 yard gain to the SAC48 (#90 A.Chambers) PENALTY SAC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#1 B.Silvera) 15 yards from SAC48 to SAC33, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
26.5%
(02:00) #5 W.Watson III pass complete deep right to #2 T.Harding caught at SAC07, for 26 yards to the SAC07 (#29 C.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
17.7%
(01:45) #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at SAC00, for 7 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 0:5622% → 24%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
22.3%
(01:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC39, for 14 yards to the SAC39, out of bounds at SAC39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
23.3%
(01:40) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at SAC44, for 5 yards to the SAC44 (#15 K.Bendolph)Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+9
23.5%
(01:34) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC50, for 9 yards to the UMass47 (#15 K.Bendolph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
24.0%
(01:22) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at UMass46, for 4 yards to the UMass43 (#0 I.Reed)Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 43
0
24.0%
(01:20) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #5 R.Brown thrown to UMass17Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
23.7%
(01:14) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #2 M.Coleman caught at UMass40, for 7 yards to the UMass36 (#22 J.Harmon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
24.1%
(01:09) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at UMass33, for 15 yards to the UMass21 (#13 R.Sexil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
25.0%
(01:01) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Brown thrown to UMass10 broken up by #2 J.Nobles QB hurried by #2 J.NoblesSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
24.8%
(00:56) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Brown thrown to UMass08Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 21
0
23.9%
(00:52) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to UMass21Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+5
23.5%
(00:48) PENALTY UMass Offside (#13 R.Sexil) 5 yards from UMass21 to UMass16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+5
23.7%
(00:48) PENALTY SAC False Start (#74 V.Soifua) 5 yards from UMass16 to UMass21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+40
23.5%
(00:48) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 40 yards NO GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 00:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11END OF HALF
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1681% → 80%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
18.6%
(00:44) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short right to #83 R.Adkins thrown to UMass17 broken up by #45 X.Williams QB hurried by #45 X.WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
18.7%
(00:35) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass26 (#11 I.Moore Jr.; #6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+13
19.2%
(00:20) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UMass34 (#2 D.Thornton; #6 W.Smith Jr.) PENALTY UMass Personal Foul (#77 J.King) 13 yards from UMass26 to UMass13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 18
OWN 13
+10
19.6%
(00:18) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 10 yards gain to the UMass23 (#23 C.Scott; #3 A.Wallace)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 12INT TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:2022% → 15%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
22.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at SAC24, for 9 yards to the SAC34 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
22.5%
(14:27) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SAC36 (#5 T.Martin; #55 Z.Morris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-49
15.0%
(13:46) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass intercepted by #44 T.Hinspeter at SAC49 #44 T.Hinspeter return 49 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:31 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 4:1914% → 9%
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
14.2%
(13:25) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC20 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #5 T.Martin)Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-7
13.7%
(12:41) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 7 yards to the SAC13 (#95 H.Dirstine)Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+14
13.1%
(12:00) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC26, for 14 yards to the SAC27 (#15 K.Bendolph), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
11.3%
(11:37) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SAC29, for 8 yards to the SAC35 (#13 R.Sexil; #3 K.Bournes)Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+12
11.6%
(11:04) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 12 yards gain to the SAC47 (#38 Z.Daniel; #13 R.Sexil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
11.0%
(10:31) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 0 yards to the SAC47 (#5 T.Martin)Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-5
10.0%
(09:56) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 9 yards to the SAC38 (#9 J.Krueger, #10 A.Melvin)Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 19
OWN 38
0
9.0%
(09:14) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to SAC48Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+1
8.8%
(09:08) #37 H.Adams punt 45 yards to the UMass17 #2 T.Harding return 1 yard to the UMass18 (#21 A.Taylor) PENALTY UMass Holding (#15 K.Bendolph) 9 yards from UMass18 to UMass09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:0193% → 95%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
6.6%
(08:59) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass12 (#33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+6
6.4%
(08:27) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 6 yards gain to the UMass18 (#18 F.Puloka; #2 D.Thornton)Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 1
OWN 18
0
5.5%
(07:49) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass18 (#52 I.Chala Jr.)Similar
Q3 6:52
4TH & 1
OWN 18
+8
5.5%
(07:04) #43 E.Phillipson punt 47 yards to the SAC35 muffed by #2 M.Coleman at SAC35 recovered by UMass #51 G.Mills at SAC43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15TD
10 plays · 43 yds · 4:1895% → 99%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
4.9%
(06:50) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III sacked for loss of 9 yards to the UMass48 (#18 F.Puloka, #45 X.Williams)Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+10
4.4%
(06:09) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #19 J.Lewis caught at SAC42, for 10 yards to the SAC42 (#22 E.Mullican; #3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q3 5:25
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+10
4.3%
(05:25) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short right thrown to SAC40 QB hurried by #90 A.Chambers PENALTY SAC Holding (#2 D.Thornton) 10 yards from SAC42 to SAC32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
4.2%
(05:20) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC27 (#2 D.Thornton)Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+10
3.7%
(04:59) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 10 yards gain to the SAC17 (#6 W.Smith Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
3.5%
(04:20) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SAC08 (#2 D.Thornton; #44 D.Davis)Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+3
3.3%
(03:44) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SAC05 (#45 X.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
3.1%
(03:10) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SAC03 (#33 A.Rocha; #44 D.Davis)Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
1.4%
(02:30) Shotgun #8 K.Dia-Johnson rush right for 3 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:27 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 16DOWNS
16 plays · 55 yds · 5:121% → 0%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
(02:27) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SAC28 (#90 T.Passmore, Jr.; #6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
0.8%
(02:02) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC34, for 8 yards to the SAC36 (#6 J.Iseah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
0.8%
(01:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SAC40 (#0 I.Reed)Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
0.7%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SAC38, for 8 yards to the SAC48 (#38 Z.Daniel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
0.8%
(00:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #3 C.Rhaney caught at SAC45, for 3 yards to the UMass49 (#38 Z.Daniel; #95 H.Dirstine)Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
0.8%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at UMass46, for 4 yards to the UMass45 (#13 R.Sexil)Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+2
0.7%
(15:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass43 (#38 Z.Daniel; #10 A.Melvin)Similar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+2
0.5%
(14:16) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass41 (#2 J.Nobles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.5%
(13:37) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMass36 (#38 Z.Daniel; #6 J.Iseah) PENALTY UMass Illegal Substitution 5 yards from UMass41 to UMass36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:09
1ST & 5
OPP 36
+11
0.5%
(13:15) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #82 K.Koontz caught at UMass29, for 11 yards to the UMass25 (#3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
0.5%
(12:42) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass20 (#0 I.Reed; #6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
0.4%
(12:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Swinney thrown to UMass02Similar
Q4 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
0.4%
(12:15) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to UMass15Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 5
OPP 20
0
0.4%
(12:12) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to UMass15 QB hurried by #42 A.DePaepe, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.5%
(12:07) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass23 (#16 L.Holani; #6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
0.5%
(11:20) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass28 (#6 W.Smith Jr.; #16 L.Holani)Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
0.4%
(10:36) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush middle for 1 yard gain to the UMass29 (#16 L.Holani; #55 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 9:55
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
0.4%
(09:59) #43 E.Phillipson punt 48 yards to the SAC23 fair catch by #21 A.Taylor at SAC23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
0.3%
(09:55) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC28 (#92 R.Johnson; #9 J.Krueger)Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+13
0.2%
(09:38) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #2 M.Coleman caught at SAC34, for 13 yards to the SAC41 (#27 M.Pangaro), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
0.2%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC46 (#2 J.Nobles) PENALTY SAC Illegal Formation 5 yards from SAC41 to SAC36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+3
0.2%
(09:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #22 I.Ene caught at SAC31, for 3 yards to the SAC39 (#23 J.Clark)Similar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+5
0.2%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC40, for 5 yards to the SAC44 (#6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-8
0.2%
(08:02) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman sacked for loss of 8 yards to the SAC36 (#2 J.Nobles)Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
0.2%
(07:24) #37 H.Adams punt 39 yards to the UMass25 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
(07:13) Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa pass incomplete deep right to #8 K.Dia-Johnson thrown to UMass45 PENALTY UMass Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#65 S.Suominen) 5 yards from UMass25 to UMass20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
0.3%
(07:13) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UMass26 (#98 C.Kallhoff; #16 L.Holani)Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
0.2%
(06:36) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush left for 1 yard gain to the UMass27 (#26 T.Thomas)Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
0.2%
(05:57) Shotgun #16 L.Inagawa rush middle for 7 yards gain to the UMass34 (#16 L.Holani)Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.2%
(05:13) #43 E.Phillipson punt 47 yards to the SAC19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:050% → 0%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
0.1%
PENALTY SAC Personal Foul (#27 N.King) 9 yards from SAC19 to SAC10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
0.1%
(04:54) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SAC11 (#97 R.Ekins)Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
0.1%
(04:38) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to SAC35Similar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+9
0.1%
(04:36) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #7 K.Taylor caught at SAC20, for 9 yards to the SAC20 (#27 M.Pangaro), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #5 R.Brown thrown to SAC25 broken up by #97 R.EkinsSimilar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
(04:12) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #5 R.Brown thrown to UMass40Similar
Q4 3:59
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
(04:04) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #7 K.Taylor thrown to SAC33Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
0.1%
(03:59) #37 H.Adams punt 41 yards to the UMass39 fair catch by #85 D.Alsup at UMass39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
0.2%
(03:59) Shotgun #33 J.Lewis rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UMass50 (#8 D.Jeanty), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
50
+7
0.1%
(03:15) Shotgun #33 J.Lewis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SAC43 (#93 M.Kindle)Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
0.1%
(02:30) Shotgun #33 J.Lewis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the SAC41 (#94 A.Aten; #98 C.Kallhoff)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
0.1%
(02:00) Shotgun #33 J.Lewis rush middle for 0 yards to the SAC41 (#16 L.Holani; #14 J.Holani)Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
0.1%
(01:08) #43 E.Phillipson punt 39 yards to the SAC02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
0.1%
(00:57) #6 B.Salazar Jr rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SAC05 (#97 R.Ekins; #10 A.Melvin)Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+9
0.1%
(00:27) #23 E.Brown rush middle for 9 yards gain to the SAC14 (#97 R.Ekins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:22
Timeout Sacramento State, clock 00:22
+9.1
TD · Q2 1:45
(01:45) #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at SAC00, for 7 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:45 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)
-8.8
TD · Q3 13:31
(13:46) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass intercepted by #44 T.Hinspeter at SAC49 #44 T.Hinspeter return 49 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:31 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com