Try the model
STO

Stonehill 14 at Massachusetts 36

MASS
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MASS
modelMASS aheadSTO aheadconfidence bandkey playMASS scoreSTO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG—MASS 96.0%(12:09) #99 D.Morris field goalattempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #43E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock12:09AWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 12:09
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:09 · (12:09) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 12:09
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior+45.4Home team on offense+0.3Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:31: (09:31) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 1 yard gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:31 #5 W.Watson III pass attempt failed — MASS win probability +5.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 2:15: (02:16) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 02:15 — MASS win probability +2.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:37: (13:53) No Huddle #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:37 PENALTY UMass UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#59 N.Dalessandro) 15 yards from STO00 to STO03 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY STO Leaping (#25 J.Amankwah) #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY STO Leaping (#25 J.Amankwah) 15 yards from STO00 to UMass35 — MASS win probability +2.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:54: (10:58) #5 W.Watson III pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Harding caught at STO01, for 51 yards to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:54, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) — MASS win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MASS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:32: (03:35) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete short middle to #85 D.Varley caught at UMass00, for 2 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:32 #32 L.Laws Jr kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Chenette, LS: #85 D.Varley) — STO win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: STO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6STO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:09MASS 4th & 5 at STO 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:28STO 4th & 1 at STO 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:38MASS 4th & 12 at STO 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:00STO 4th & 7 at STO 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:48STO 4th & 15 at STO 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:56STO 4th & 9 at MASS 49, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02STO 4th & 10 at STO 6, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:59MASS 4th & 2 at STO 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    88.8%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:33STO 4th & 20 at STO 15, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:21MASS 4th & 19 at MASS 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:15MASS 4th & 14 at STO 14, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.4%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.7%−4.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:31STO 4th & 10 at STO 25, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:24STO 4th & 2 at MASS 27, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:32STO 4th & 2 at MASS 2, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MASS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4STO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 9:15STO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:33MASS Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:31MASS Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:37MASS Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:54MASS Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:32STO Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STODrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:304% → 4%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
96.4%
(14:48) Shotgun #0 A.Garrett rush right for 4 yards gain to the STO21 (#44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
96.3%
(14:21) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Baker thrown to STO30 QB hurried by #99 K.ThomasSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+1
96.3%
(14:14) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short right to #0 A.Garrett caught at STO16, for 1 yard to the STO22 fumbled by #0 A.Garrett at STO22 forced by #98 W.DePaepe recovered by UMass #7 T.Magee at STO22 #7 T.Magee return 5 yards to the STO17 (#0 A.Garrett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 2FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3296% → 96%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
96.3%
(13:41) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 2 yards gain to the STO15 (#22 M.Wilson; #94 C.Gill)Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+6
96.2%
(13:28) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 6 yards gain to the STO09 (#23 E.Miles; #94 C.Gill)Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-3
96.0%
(12:49) #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 3 yards loss to the STO12 fumbled by #5 W.Watson III at STO08 recovered by UMass #5 W.Watson III at STO12, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+30
96.0%
(12:09) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 12:09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:444% → 5%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
(12:06) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short right to #9 A.Turner caught at STO28, for 5 yards to the STO30 (#22 J.Harmon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+14
95.9%
(11:37) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush left for 14 yards gain to the STO44 (#38 Z.Daniel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
95.7%
(11:04) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STO46 (#3 K.Bournes; #5 T.Martin)Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
95.6%
(10:27) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STO48 (#98 W.DePaepe)Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+26
95.5%
(09:48) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete deep right to #4 J.Baker caught at UMass28, for 26 yards to the UMass26 QB hurried by #6 J.Iseah (#3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UMass Roughing The Passer (#98 W.DePaepe) 13 yards from UMass26 to UMass13, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.1%
(09:18) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short right to #9 A.Turner caught at UMass00, for 13 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:15, 1ST DOWN #32 L.Laws Jr kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Chenette, LS: #85 D.Varley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 4TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:2995% → 95%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
95.2%
(09:03) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #8 K.Dia-Johnson thrown to UMass36Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+7
95.0%
(09:01) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #11 M.Dowling caught at UMass33, for 7 yards to the UMass35 (#11 C.Henritzy)Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+9
94.9%
(08:18) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at UMass41, for 9 yards to the UMass44 (#15 T.Bannon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.9%
(07:46) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle thrown to UMass46 broken up by #50 J.RampinoSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+56
95.2%
(07:42) Shotgun #2 T.Harding rush right for 56 yards gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:33, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:535% → 5%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.1%
(07:31) Shotgun #5 R.King rush middle for 6 yards gain to the STO31 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #0 I.Reed)Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
95.0%
(06:49) Shotgun #5 R.King rush middle for 3 yards gain to the STO34 (#5 T.Martin; #42 A.DePaepe)Similar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
94.8%
(06:16) Shotgun #5 R.King rush middle for 0 yards to the STO34 (#5 T.Martin; #7 T.Magee)Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
94.8%
(05:32) #97 L.Chenette punt 32 yards to the UMass34, out of bounds at UMass34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 6FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:4295% → 94%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.7%
(05:27) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMass39 (#11 C.Henritzy)Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+26
94.7%
(04:50) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 26 yards gain to the STO35 (#10 S.Davila), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
94.7%
(04:11) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO34 (#11 C.Henritzy; #99 M.Saddler jr)Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+10
94.5%
(03:26) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush left for 15 yards gain to the STO19 (#3 T.Rankin), out of bounds PENALTY UMass Holding (#73 Z.Franks) 10 yards from STO34 to STO44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+3
94.2%
(03:08) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #1 J.Griffin Jr. caught at STO47, for 3 yards to the STO41 (#11 C.Henritzy; #2 M.Toure)Similar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+4
93.8%
(02:20) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush left for 4 yards gain to the STO37 (#15 T.Bannon), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 12
OPP 37
+55
94.2%
(01:38) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 55 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 01:38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 7PUNT
10 plays · -7 yds · 2:256% → 6%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.0%
(01:26) Shotgun #0 A.Garrett rush left for 0 yards to the STO29 (#5 T.Martin; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
93.9%
(00:53) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short left to #0 A.Garrett caught at STO25, for 3 yards to the STO32 (#7 T.Magee), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:09
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+15
93.8%
(00:09) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #4 J.Baker thrown to UMass50 PENALTY UMass Pass Interference (#0 I.Reed) 15 yards from STO32 to STO47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.4%
(00:04) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush right for 0 yards to the STO47 (#3 K.Bournes; #0 I.Reed) PENALTY STO Holding (#83 A.Traver) 10 yards from STO47 to STO37. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 20
OWN 37
-15
93.7%
(14:55) #6 J.O'Connell sacked for loss of 15 yards to the STO22 (#98 W.DePaepe)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 35
OWN 22
0
93.6%
(14:17) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Wilson thrown to STO25 broken up by #22 J.HarmonSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 35
OWN 22
0
93.8%
(14:14) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Wilson thrown to STO17 broken up by #42 A.DePaepeSimilar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 35
OWN 22
+1
93.8%
(14:10) #97 L.Chenette punt 3 yards to the STO25 blocked by #19 D.Chiavegato recovered by UMass #15 K.Bendolph at STO25 #15 K.Bendolph return 1 yard to the STO24, out of bounds at STO24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · -21 yds · 1:5194% → 93%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.2%
(13:58) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete deep right to #1 J.Griffin Jr. thrown to STO00 broken up by #23 E.MilesSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
94.2%
(13:54) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short right to #11 M.Dowling thrown to STO20Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+10
94.1%
(13:52) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at STO30, for 11 yards to the STO13 (#22 M.Wilson), out of bounds PENALTY UMass Illegal Block in Back (#17 D.Elliott) 10 yards from STO24 to STO34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 20
OPP 34
+10
93.8%
(13:31) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 22 yards gain to the STO12 (#23 E.Miles) PENALTY UMass Holding (#79 A.Urionabarrenechea) 10 yards from STO34 to STO44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 30
OPP 44
-1
93.6%
(12:55) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III sacked for loss of 1 yard to the STO45 (#24 J.Stewart)Similar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 31
OPP 45
0
93.2%
(12:13) #43 E.Phillipson punt 37 yards to the STO08 fair catch by #9 A.Turner at STO08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:597% → 7%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
93.0%
(12:05) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STO10 (#44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
92.9%
(11:24) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush middle for 0 yards to the STO10 (#10 A.Melvin; #2 J.Nobles)Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+1
92.8%
(10:45) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO11 (#3 K.Bournes; #42 A.DePaepe)Similar
Q2 10:00
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
93.3%
(10:00) #97 L.Chenette punt 37 yards to the STO48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3394% → 93%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.5%
Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #23 E.Faulkner thrown to STO47 QB hurried by #91 A.ScottSimilar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
93.3%
(09:48) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at STO49, for 1 yard to the STO47 (#94 C.Gill; #36 V.Busa)Similar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+8
93.1%
(09:04) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #11 M.Dowling caught at STO43, for 8 yards to the STO39 (#29 T.Baxter)Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
93.2%
(08:22) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO38 fumbled by #14 C.Kimmons IV at STO38 forced by #94 C.Gill recovered by UMass #23 E.Faulkner at STO38, #23 E.Faulkner for 1 yard to the STO39, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
91.1%
(03:48) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell rush right for 2 yards gain to the STO41 (#92 R.Johnson; #0 I.Reed)Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+12
91.1%
(03:48) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short left to #2 A.Neal caught at STO49, for 12 yards to the UMass47 (#3 K.Bournes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.6%
(03:48) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #2 A.Neal thrown to UMass35 QB hurried by #42 A.DePaepeSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
90.8%
(03:48) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass47 (#6 J.Iseah; #99 K.Thomas)Similar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
91.2%
(03:48) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Washington, Jr. thrown to UMass37Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+5
91.7%
PENALTY STO False Start (#75 E.Romano) 5 yards from UMass47 to STO48. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 15
OWN 48
0
91.9%
(03:48) #97 L.Chenette punt 17 yards to the UMass35, out of bounds at UMass35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 12INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
91.8%
(03:41) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass38 (#8 D.Owode)Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
92.3%
(03:41) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass intercepted by #10 S.Davila at UMass49 #10 S.Davila return for loss of 1 yard to the UMass50 (#1 J.Griffin Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1110% → 9%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
50
0
90.3%
(03:10) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short left to #9 A.Turner thrown to STO49Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
50
-1
90.4%
(02:50) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short middle to #5 R.King caught at STO45, for 1 yard loss to the STO49 (#2 J.Nobles; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+2
90.8%
(02:16) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short left to #0 A.Garrett caught at STO43, for 2 yards to the UMass49 (#38 Z.Daniel; #0 I.Reed)Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
91.3%
(01:56) #97 L.Chenette punt 49 yards to the UMass00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 16 yds · 0:4991% → 91%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
91.3%
(01:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush left for 7 yards gain to the UMass27 (#0 D.Goodson)Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
91.5%
(01:56) Shotgun #8 K.Dia-Johnson rush right for 1 yard gain to the UMass28 (#15 T.Bannon)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+8
91.1%
(01:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #1 J.Griffin Jr. caught at UMass25, for 8 yards to the UMass36 (#22 M.Wilson; #23 E.Miles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
91.7%
PENALTY UMass False Start (#2 T.Harding) 5 yards from UMass36 to UMass31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
91.3%
(01:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short left to #14 C.Kimmons IV thrown to UMass30 QB hurried by #94 C.GillSimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+5
90.7%
(01:53) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #23 E.Faulkner caught at UMass35, for 5 yards to the UMass36 QB hurried by #91 A.Scott (#0 D.Goodson)Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
91.2%
(01:26) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short left to #23 E.Faulkner thrown to STO46Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+1
90.8%
(01:14) #43 E.Phillipson punt 59 yards to the STO05 #9 A.Turner return 1 yard to the STO06 (#19 D.Chiavegato)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 5 yds · 0:528% → 7%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
92.2%
(01:05) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush left for 2 yards gain to the STO08 (#6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
92.5%
(00:51) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush middle for 0 yards to the STO08 (#5 T.Martin; #44 T.Hinspeter)Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 8
OWN 8
-2
93.3%
(00:44) Shotgun #20 S.Eason rush right for 2 yards loss to the STO06 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #99 K.Thomas)Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 10
OWN 6
+5
92.7%
(00:00) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell rush left for 5 yards gain to the STO11, End Of Play, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 16TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:1692% → 95%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
91.5%
(14:53) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UMass43 (#99 M.Saddler jr)Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
91.3%
(14:16) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush right for 9 yards gain to the STO48 (#91 A.Scott; #0 D.Goodson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
91.3%
(13:37) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STO46 (#22 M.Wilson; #99 M.Saddler jr)Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
91.1%
(12:57) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 7 yards gain to the STO39 (#29 T.Baxter)Similar
Q3 12:18
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
90.6%
(12:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #17 D.Elliott caught at STO41, for 5 yards to the STO34 (#3 T.Rankin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.9%
(11:57) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush right for 2 yards gain to the STO32, out of bounds at STO32Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+3
90.8%
(11:15) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush right for 3 yards gain to the STO29, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 10:43
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+3
90.2%
(10:53) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #1 J.Griffin Jr. caught at STO26, for 3 yards to the STO26 (#2 M.Toure)Similar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+25
89.4%
(10:13) #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #83 R.Adkins caught at STO09, for 25 yards to the STO01 (#0 D.Goodson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.6%
(09:31) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 1 yard gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:31 #5 W.Watson III pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:517% → 6%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.1%
(09:28) Shotgun #5 R.King rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STO27 (#2 J.Nobles)Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-12
93.0%
(08:51) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short left to #2 A.Neal thrown to STO25 QB hurried by #98 W.DePaepe PENALTY STO Intentional Grounding (#6 J.O'Connell)Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
93.5%
(08:40) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short left to #17 C.Clarke thrown to STO19Similar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
93.6%
(08:37) #97 L.Chenette punt 54 yards to the UMass31 fair catch by #2 T.Harding at UMass31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 2:0394% → 93%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
94.0%
(08:30) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush right for 4 yards gain to the UMass35 (#22 M.Wilson)Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-2
93.9%
(07:54) #15 T.Dashiell rush left for 2 yards loss to the UMass33 (#11 C.Henritzy)Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-11
93.7%
(07:10) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III sacked for loss of 11 yards to the UMass22 (#22 M.Wilson)Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 19
OWN 22
-4
93.1%
(06:27) #43 E.Phillipson punt 56 yards to the STO22 muffed by #9 A.Turner at STO22, out of bounds at STO18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:007% → 7%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
93.5%
(06:19) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete deep right to #17 C.Clarke thrown to STO38 broken up by #0 I.Reed PENALTY UMass Offside (#92 R.Johnson) 5 yards from STO18 to STO23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 5
OWN 23
0
93.0%
(06:13) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Wilson thrown to STO24Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+2
93.2%
(06:09) Shotgun #5 R.King rush middle for 2 yards gain to the STO25 (#44 T.Hinspeter; #3 K.Bournes)Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
(05:22) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short right to #4 J.Baker caught at STO29, for 6 yards to the STO31 fumbled by #4 J.Baker at STO31 forced by #0 I.Reed recovered by UMass #19 D.Chiavegato at STO31, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:5894% → 96%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
94.1%
(05:16) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete deep middle to #1 J.Griffin Jr. thrown to STO00Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+15
94.1%
(05:07) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #2 T.Harding caught at STO23, for 15 yards to the STO16 (#26 A.Weather), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
94.5%
(04:39) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #19 J.Lewis caught at STO04, for 12 yards to the STO04, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
94.4%
(03:56) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short right to #2 T.Harding caught at STO09, for 2 yards loss to the STO06 (#26 A.Weather; #36 V.Busa), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+15
94.6%
(03:24) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short left to #23 E.Faulkner caught at STO08, for 4 yards to the STO02 (#11 C.Henritzy; #36 V.Busa), out of bounds PENALTY UMass Tripping (#73 Z.Franks) 15 yards from STO06 to STO21. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 21
+7
94.5%
(02:59) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush right for 7 yards gain to the STO14 (#48 D.Schmitt)Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
94.2%
(02:22) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Griffin Jr. thrown to STO00Similar
Q3 2:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+33
96.3%
(02:16) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 02:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 21INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:025% → 4%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.5%
(02:12) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass complete short right to #85 D.Varley caught at STO25, for 2 yards to the STO27 (#22 J.Harmon)Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
95.4%
(01:38) Shotgun #0 A.Garrett rush middle for 1 yard loss to the STO26 (#1 D.Snyder II)Similar
Q3 0:58
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
95.6%
(01:03) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass intercepted by #23 J.Clark at STO40, End Of Play PENALTY STO Face Mask declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 22TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:4297% → 99%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
96.9%
(00:22) Shotgun #23 E.Faulkner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO39 (#94 C.Gill; #8 J.Flynn)Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 9
OPP 39
0
96.9%
(00:13) Shotgun #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 0 yards to the STO39 (#8 D.Owode) PENALTY STO Face Mask (#8 D.Owode) 15 yards from STO39 to STO24, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
96.9%
(14:57) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush right for 4 yards gain to the STO20 (#22 M.Wilson; #48 D.Schmitt)Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+19
96.9%
(14:23) Shotgun #14 C.Kimmons IV rush right for 19 yards gain to the STO01 (#2 M.Toure; #90 J.Osuagwu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.2%
(13:53) No Huddle #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:37 PENALTY UMass UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#59 N.Dalessandro) 15 yards from STO00 to STO03 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY STO Leaping (#25 J.Amankwah) #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY STO Leaping (#25 J.Amankwah) 15 yards from STO00 to UMass35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
(13:32) Shotgun #1 J.Roberson rush left for 0 yards to the STO25 (#15 K.Bendolph; #92 R.Johnson)Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
(12:52) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to #4 J.Baker thrown to UMass45Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.2%
(12:43) Shotgun #6 J.O'Connell pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Washington, Jr. thrown to STO33Similar
Q4 12:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.2%
(12:40) #97 L.Chenette punt 47 yards to the UMass28 #2 T.Harding return 6 yards to the UMass34 (#85 D.Varley; #80 C.Hanewich)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 24TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:2699% → 100%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
99.2%
(12:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 W.Watson III pass complete short middle to #23 E.Faulkner caught at UMass38, for 10 yards to the UMass44 (#10 S.Davila; #21 G.Townsel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
99.3%
(11:46) #23 E.Faulkner rush left for 5 yards gain to the UMass49 (#21 G.Townsel)Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+51
99.9%
(10:58) #5 W.Watson III pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Harding caught at STO01, for 51 yards to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:54, 1ST DOWN #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STODrive 25TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 7:090% → 1%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
(10:52) Shotgun #12 D.Eason rush left for 1 yard gain to the STO26 (#92 R.Johnson; #19 D.Chiavegato)Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
(10:04) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete short left to #85 D.Varley caught at STO28, for 6 yards to the STO32 (#15 K.Bendolph; #6 J.Iseah)Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
(09:17) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete short left to #19 S.Corchado caught at STO39, for 7 yards to the STO39 (#13 R.Sexil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
99.9%
(08:33) Shotgun #1 J.Roberson rush left for 10 yards gain to the STO49 (#13 R.Sexil), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(07:57) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Wilson thrown to UMass38Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
(07:55) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass incomplete short right to #81 K.Wilson thrown to UMass45Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+16
99.9%
(07:48) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete short middle to #81 K.Wilson caught at UMass38, for 16 yards to the UMass35 (#6 J.Iseah), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
99.9%
(07:05) Shotgun #12 D.Eason rush middle for 4 yards loss to the UMass39 fumbled by #12 D.Eason at UMass39 recovered by STO #12 D.Eason at UMass39, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 14
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(06:23) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass incomplete short right to #1 J.Roberson thrown to UMass41Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & 14
OPP 39
+12
99.9%
(06:20) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete short left to #19 S.Corchado caught at UMass27, for 12 yards to the UMass27 (#13 R.Sexil)Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+22
99.9%
(05:36) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete deep left to #19 S.Corchado caught at UMass06, for 22 yards to the UMass05 (#13 R.Sexil), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
(04:59) Shotgun #1 J.Roberson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UMass02 (#36 D.Timson; #15 K.Bendolph)Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
(04:15) Shotgun #1 J.Roberson rush middle for 0 yards to the UMass02 (#27 M.Pangaro; #19 D.Chiavegato)Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
(03:36) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass incomplete short right to #80 C.Hanewich thrown to UMass00Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.5%
(03:35) Shotgun #12 D.Eason pass complete short middle to #85 D.Varley caught at UMass00, for 2 yards to the UMass00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:32 #32 L.Laws Jr kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Chenette, LS: #85 D.Varley)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.6%
(03:31) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush right for 9 yards gain to the UMass34 (#7 K.Williams; #27 G.Nelson)Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.6%
(02:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UMass39 (#42 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
99.8%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush left for 7 yards gain to the UMass46 (#48 D.Schmitt; #7 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
99.8%
(01:08) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush right for 2 yards gain to the UMass48 (#95 B.Benson; #48 D.Schmitt)Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+11
99.8%
(00:27) Shotgun #0 J.Washington rush right for 11 yards gain to the STO41 (#37 P.Sward; #48 D.Schmitt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:31
(09:31) #14 C.Kimmons IV rush left for 1 yard gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:31 #5 W.Watson III pass attempt failed
+5.2
TD · Q4 13:37
(13:53) No Huddle #5 W.Watson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the STO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:37 PENALTY UMass UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#59 N.Dalessandro) 15 yards from STO00 to STO03 #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY STO Leaping (#25 J.Amankwah) #99 D.Morris kick attempt good (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills) PENALTY STO Leaping (#25 J.Amankwah) 15 yards from STO00 to UMass35
+2.3
FG · Q3 2:15
(02:16) #99 D.Morris field goal attempt from 33 yards GOOD (H: #43 E.Phillipson, LS: #51 G.Mills), clock 02:15
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com