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BALL

Ball State 15 at Liberty 51

LIB
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:06 · (03:12) #49 S.Crossan punt 51 yards to the BSU27 fair catch by #85 A.Cooper at BSU27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Pregame prior+21.0Home team on offense+8.0Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.3Garbage-time factor+1.7Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:46: (03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #3 J.Person caught at BSU04, for 16 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:46, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera) — LIB win probability +2.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:48: (08:53) #42 C.Reeves field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera), clock 08:48 — LIB win probability +5.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: Lead backed by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:13: (00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #3 J.Person caught at BSU00, for 7 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera) — LIB win probability +5.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:17: (11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera) — LIB win probability +4.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:59: (07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera) — LIB win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 14:06BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:36BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:53LIB 4th & 1 at LIB 22, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    80.7%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:48LIB 4th & 3 at BALL 27, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.1%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−3.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:00BALL 4th & 6 at LIB 17, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    80% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:06LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 22, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:09BALL 4th & 14 at BALL 23, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:21BALL 4th & 15 at BALL 22, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:57BALL 4th & 4 at LIB 46, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.9
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.7%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:23BALL 4th & 16 at LIB 45, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:13BALL 4th & 22 at BALL 9, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:16LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:47BALL Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:46LIB Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:13LIB Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:17LIB Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:59LIB Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:42BALL Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:29LIB Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:02LIB Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4715% → 15%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
84.9%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush right for 2 yards gain to the BSU27 (#8 B.Williams)Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
84.8%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short right to #10 J.McDougle thrown to BSU34Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
84.8%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short right to #10 J.McDougle thrown to BSU40Similar
Q1 14:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
84.8%
(14:11) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 18 yards to the BSU45, out of bounds at BSU45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:3985% → 85%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
84.8%
(14:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #3 J.Person caught at BSU39, for 8 yards to the BSU37 (#4 W.Yates)Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-2
84.6%
(13:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BSU39 (#27 G.Forsha)Similar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+8
84.5%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson pass complete short left to #1 D.Copeland caught at BSU32, for 8 yards to the BSU31 (#0 D.Fields), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
84.4%
(12:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush left for 1 yard loss to the BSU32 (#1 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+4
84.3%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU28 (#6 C.Lewis)Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+16
84.0%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #1 D.Copeland caught at BSU13, for 16 yards to the BSU12, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
84.7%
(10:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at BSU00, for 12 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:16, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt failed (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1916% → 19%
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.2%
(10:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short middle to #11 I.Thacker caught at BSU38, for 14 yards to the BSU39 (#13 J.Vessel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
84.0%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BSU37 (#1 D.Farrar)Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+13
84.1%
(09:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short middle to #24 T.Hoover caught at BSU45, for 13 yards to the BSU50 (#7 I.Guy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
50
+25
83.6%
(08:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 25 yards gain to the LU25 (#13 J.Vessel), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
83.3%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short right thrown to LU20 QB hurried by #8 B.WilliamsSimilar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
83.3%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short left to #10 J.McDougle caught at LU21, for 9 yards to the LU16 (#4 M.Pollard)Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
83.3%
(07:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Bonds rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LU14 (#11 L.Payne), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
82.9%
(06:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush left for 12 yards gain to the LU02 (#21 A.McShane), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
81.1%
(05:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:47 #38 B.Boehm kick attempt good (H: #32 C.Stumbaugh, LS: #45 C.Britton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4982% → 85%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.6%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #1 D.Copeland caught at LU21, for 9 yards to the LU34 (#27 G.Forsha)Similar
Q1 4:54
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+37
81.9%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #87 L.Johnson, Jr. caught at BSU50, for 37 yards to the BSU29 (#1 S.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
82.3%
(04:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush right for 13 yards gain to the BSU16 (#1 S.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
84.6%
(03:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #3 J.Person caught at BSU04, for 16 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:46, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:0216% → 17%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.6%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Bonds rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU28 (#19 J.Whaley)Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
83.4%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short left to #1 D.Hamilton caught at BSU33, for 12 yards to the BSU40 (#2 J.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
83.0%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Hamilton thrown to BSU50 broken up by #97 M.JarvisSimilar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
83.2%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short left to #1 D.Hamilton caught at BSU47, for 7 yards to the BSU47 (#2 J.Marshall)Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
82.7%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Hamilton thrown to LU49 broken up by #1 D.FarrarSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 3
OWN 47
+5
83.0%
PENALTY BSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from BSU47 to BSU42. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
83.4%
(01:44) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 45 yards to the LU13 fair catch by #2 M.Jackson at LU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6FG
17 plays · 60 yds · 7:4183% → 88%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
83.0%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LU15 (#6 C.Lewis; #54 S.Vaka)Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+6
82.9%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LU21 (#1 S.Smith)Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+1
82.6%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU22 (#6 C.Lewis)Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+5
82.1%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LU27 (#6 C.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
82.7%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 10 yards gain to the LU37 (#12 D.Shepherd), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
83.1%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 4 yards gain to the LU41 (#1 S.Smith), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
83.5%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU42 (#21 G.Aramboles)Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+10
83.0%
(12:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #1 D.Copeland caught at LU46, for 10 yards to the BSU48 (#4 W.Yates), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
83.6%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete deep middle to #12 R.Cunningham thrown to BSU01Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+14
83.5%
(11:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #2 M.Jackson caught at BSU34, for 14 yards to the BSU34 (#0 D.Fields), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
83.7%
(11:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU33 (#27 G.Forsha)Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
83.6%
(10:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BSU31 (#11 L.Starks)Similar
Q2 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+4
83.2%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush middle for 4 yards gain to the BSU27 (#16 K.Stewart)Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+46
87.5%
(08:53) #42 C.Reeves field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera), clock 08:48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7MISSED FG
14 plays · 58 yds · 4:4016% → 15%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.2%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush middle for 12 yards gain to the BSU37 (#2 J.Marshall), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
83.9%
(08:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short left to #3 J.Thompson Jr. caught at BSU33, for 1 yard to the BSU38 (#6 D.Glaud)Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
85.2%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush left for 10 yards gain to the BSU48 (#13 J.Vessel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
84.6%
(06:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush middle for 20 yards gain to the LU32 (#2 J.Marshall; #15 M.Clark), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
83.6%
(06:32) PENALTY LU Offside (#11 L.Payne) 5 yards from LU32 to LU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 5
OPP 27
+4
83.3%
(06:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush right for 4 yards gain to the LU23 (#19 J.Whaley), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+2
83.6%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LU21 (#9 D.Spurlock; #94 N.Pirolli), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
83.6%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete deep right to #11 I.Thacker thrown to LU00Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
83.8%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LU17 (#94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
84.1%
(04:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short right to #5 J.Smith thrown to LU00Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
85.0%
(04:03) #38 B.Boehm field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #32 C.Stumbaugh, LS: #45 C.Britton), clock 04:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4889% → 87%
Q2 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.5%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right thrown to LU25 QB hurried by #27 G.ForshaSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
88.5%
(03:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush left for 7 yards gain to the LU27 (#4 W.Yates)Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
87.8%
(03:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #4 K.Davis thrown to LU23 broken up by #18 C.Franklin II QB hurried by #39 M.GracioSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+5
87.3%
PENALTY LU False Start (#9 D.Spurlock) 5 yards from LU27 to LU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
87.3%
(03:12) #49 S.Crossan punt 51 yards to the BSU27 fair catch by #85 A.Cooper at BSU27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · -4 yds · 1:5514% → 14%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
86.4%
(03:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush middle for 10 yards gain to the BSU37, End Of Play PENALTY BSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from BSU27 to BSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+3
86.5%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BSU25 (#56 S.Cohen)Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+12
87.4%
(02:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush right for 29 yards gain to the LU46 (#0 D.Hopkins), out of bounds PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (#1 D.Hamilton) 12 yards from BSU25 to BSU13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 24
OWN 13
-1
87.5%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush right for 1 yard loss to the BSU12 (#30 E.Crisp; #1 D.Farrar)Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 25
OWN 12
+11
86.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short middle to #11 I.Thacker caught at BSU08, for 11 yards to the BSU23 (#10 R.Moore, Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
85.9%
(01:14) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 39 yards to the LU38 #2 M.Jackson return 0 yards to the LU38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 0:5089% → 90%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
89.2%
(01:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush left for 4 yards gain to the LU42 (#11 L.Starks)Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
89.2%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Jackson thrown to BSU40 broken up by #1 S.SmithSimilar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+16
88.8%
(00:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 P.Jones rush left for 16 yards gain to the BSU42 (#48 S.Feeney), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
89.6%
(00:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep left to #88 Z.Wimbush caught at BSU22, for 20 yards to the BSU22 (#17 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
89.0%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Copeland thrown to BSU05Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
88.4%
(00:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 7 yards gain to the BSU15 (#48 S.Feeney), out of bounds PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (#99 K.Gilbert) 8 yards from BSU15 to BSU07, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
90.0%
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #3 J.Person caught at BSU00, for 7 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.0%
(00:12) Kneel down by #6 K.Luster at BSU23 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:2892% → 97%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
91.5%
(14:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short left to #3 J.Person caught at LU28, for 6 yards to the LU29 (#18 C.Franklin II)Similar
Q3 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+54
91.6%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete deep middle to #2 M.Jackson caught at BSU20, for 54 yards to the BSU17 (#18 C.Franklin II), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
91.9%
(13:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Kellman rush right for 7 yards gain to the BSU10 (#27 G.Forsha; #1 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
92.2%
(12:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 D.Copeland rush right for 4 yards gain to the BSU06 (#16 K.Stewart), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
92.4%
(12:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short right to #48 C.Ryan caught at BSU05, for 2 yards to the BSU04 (#1 S.Smith; #6 C.Lewis)Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.0%
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:423% → 3%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
96.6%
(11:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush right for 3 yards loss to the BSU24 (#91 M.Floyde)Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 13
OWN 24
+8
96.9%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush left for 8 yards gain to the BSU32 (#13 J.Vessel), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
96.8%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush left for 3 yards gain to the BSU35 (#94 N.Pirolli) PENALTY BSU Holding (#66 C.Hood) 10 yards from BSU32 to BSU22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
97.0%
(09:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short right to #10 J.McDougle thrown to BSU35 broken up by #7 I.GuySimilar
Q3 9:21
4TH & 15
OWN 22
0
97.1%
(09:28) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 47 yards to the LU31 fair catch by #2 M.Jackson at LU31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1397% → 100%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
97.1%
(09:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie rush left for 9 yards gain to the LU40 (#1 S.Smith)Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 1
OWN 40
0
97.3%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete deep left to #12 R.Cunningham thrown to BSU06Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+43
97.3%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Kellman rush middle for 43 yards gain to the BSU17 (#4 W.Yates), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
97.4%
(07:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 3 yards gain to the BSU14 (#4 W.Yates)Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
97.4%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass incomplete short middle to #9 B.Randolph thrown to BSU00Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+14
99.6%
(07:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 K.Davis rush middle for 14 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 06:59, 1ST DOWN #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:030% → 2%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.7%
(06:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short right to #11 I.Thacker caught at BSU34, for 12 yards to the BSU37 (#10 R.Moore, Jr.; #17 J.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.7%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush right for 13 yards gain to the BSU50 (#16 T.Gainey), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LU Personal Foul (#16 T.Gainey) 15 yards from LU50 to LU35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.7%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster sacked for loss of 5 yards to the LU40 (#9 D.Spurlock)Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 15
OPP 40
+20
99.8%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 20 yards gain to the LU20 (#21 A.McShane), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.7%
(04:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LU15 (#6 D.Glaud)Similar
Q3 3:57
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+7
99.7%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush right for 7 yards gain to the LU08 (#0 D.Hopkins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.8%
(03:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short middle to #11 I.Thacker caught at LU05, for 7 yards to the LU01 (#10 R.Moore, Jr.)Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:42 #6 K.Luster rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
99.0%
(02:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson rush middle for 4 yards loss to the BSU48 fumbled by #13 J.Henderson at BSU49 forced by #9 J.Thomas recovered by BSU #56 A.Glenn at BSU48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 3:002% → 1%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
98.0%
(02:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush middle for 5 yards gain to the LU47 (#1 D.Farrar)Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
98.3%
(01:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Hamilton thrown to LU41Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+1
98.4%
(01:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush middle for 1 yard gain to the LU46 (#97 M.Jarvis)Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+7
98.5%
(01:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass complete short left to #2 J.Bonds caught at LU50, for 7 yards to the LU39 (#7 I.Guy), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
98.6%
(00:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Bonds rush right for 1 yard gain to the LU38 (#94 N.Pirolli)Similar
Q3 0:03
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+3
98.6%
(00:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Horton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the LU35 (#0 D.Hopkins)Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
98.6%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short left to #5 J.Smith thrown to LU34Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+10
98.7%
(14:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster rush left for 15 yards gain to the LU20 (#97 M.Jarvis), out of bounds PENALTY BSU Holding (#66 C.Hood) 10 yards from LU35 to LU45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 16
OPP 45
0
98.9%
(14:31) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 45 yards to the LU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 6:4499% → 100%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.2%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Udoh rush middle for 4 yards gain to the LU24 (#58 K.Smith)Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
99.3%
(13:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Coleman rush left for 0 yards to the LU24 (#17 K.Williams)Similar
Q4 12:47
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+8
99.3%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson pass complete short left to #2 M.Jackson caught at LU30, for 8 yards to the LU32 (#14 A.Pinnace), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BSU Personal Foul (#99 K.Gilbert) 15 yards from LU32 to LU47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.4%
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the LU49 (#6 C.Lewis)Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
99.4%
(11:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Udoh rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BSU46 (#10 A.Stief)Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+15
99.4%
(10:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Udoh rush middle for 15 yards gain to the BSU31 (#1 S.Smith; #14 A.Pinnace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.5%
(09:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU30 (#27 G.Forsha)Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+8
99.5%
(09:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Udoh rush middle for 8 yards gain to the BSU22 (#2 Q.Scandrett)Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+1
99.5%
(08:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 T.Kellman rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU21 (#2 Q.Scandrett; #14 A.Pinnace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.6%
(07:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson pass incomplete short right to #0 J.Coleman thrown to BSU07Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 J.Henderson pass complete short left to #11 T.Kellman caught at BSU24, for 21 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:29, 1ST DOWN #98 T.Black kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:140% → 0%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
100.0%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster pass incomplete short middle to #88 A.Scherle thrown to BSU48 broken up by #6 D.GlaudSimilar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+28
100.0%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Luster sacked for loss of 6 yards to the BSU44 (#91 M.Floyde), fumble by #6 K.Luster recovered by LU #22 K.Ferm at BSU44 #22 K.Ferm return 28 yards to the BSU16 (#3 J.Thompson Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:57100% → 100%
Q4 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
100.0%
(07:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 J.Davis rush left for 14 yards gain to the BSU02 (#28 S.Perkins), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
(06:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #18 J.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU01 (#16 K.Stewart; #9 J.Thomas)Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
(05:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Belford rush middle for 0 yards to the BSU01 (#6 C.Lewis; #94 K.Thomas)Similar
Q4 5:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 J.Belford rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:02 #98 T.Black kick attempt good (H: #27 C.Shepler, LS: #45 C.Comer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 3:340% → 0%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
100.0%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 E.Jackson rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU13 (#55 H.Hicks; #95 J.Hairston, Jr.)Similar
Q4 4:02
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+8
100.0%
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Mizzell rush left for 8 yards gain to the BSU21 (#16 T.Gainey; #6 D.Glaud), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
100.0%
(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Mizzell rush right for 5 yards gain to the BSU26, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
100.0%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 E.Jackson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU27 (#6 D.Glaud)Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+6
100.0%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 J.Thompson Jr. rush right for 14 yards gain (6) to the BSU41 (#26 M.Brown), out of bounds PENALTY BSU Holding (#14 E.Durham) 10 yards from BSU33 to BSU23Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-14
100.0%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 T.Mizzell sacked for loss of 14 yards to the BSU09 (#99 X.Reid)Similar
Q4 1:13
4TH & 22
OWN 9
0
100.0%
(01:20) #32 C.Stumbaugh punt 41 yards to the BSU50Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:39100% → 100%
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
50
+1
100.0%
(01:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 K.Udoh rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BSU49 (#58 K.Smith)Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-5
100.0%
(00:27) Kneel down by #18 J.Davis at LU46 for loss of 5 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 8:48
(08:53) #42 C.Reeves field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera), clock 08:48
+5.5
TD · Q2 0:13
(00:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Purdie pass complete short middle to #3 J.Person caught at BSU00, for 7 yards to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:13 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)
+5.4
TD · Q3 11:17
(11:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 E.Vasko rush left for 4 yards gain to the BSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:17 #42 C.Reeves kick attempt good (H: #49 S.Crossan, LS: #41 G.Rivera)
+4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com