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JXST

Jacksonville State 27 at Ohio 29

OHIO
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Peden Stadium
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Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3OT4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:06 · (00:06) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD blocked by #93 J.Campbell (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer), clock 00:00 (Ohio), out of bounds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialTime remainingOffense timeoutsDefense timeouts
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTOT2OT3OT4Play 83Home team on offense−2.4Garbage-time factor−0.4Score differential−0.9Time remaining−0.2Offense timeouts−0.7Defense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:44: Darren James-Hamilton 98 Yd Kickoff Return (Will Hryszko Kick) — OHIO win probability +14.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:34: Victor Rosa 1 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick) — OHIO win probability +55.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. FG · OT2 0:00: Will Hryszko 43 Yd Field Goal — OHIO win probability +16.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. FG · OT2 0:00: Garrison Rippa 28 Yd Field Goal — JXST win probability +27.6 pts (now 48%) (top driver: offense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. FG · OT2 0:00: End of OT. — JXST win probability +16.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 11:27OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:53OHIO 4th & 15 at OHIO 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:03JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 14, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:48OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:49JXST 4th & 4 at OHIO 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−0.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    51.2%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:57JXST 4th & 4 at OHIO 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−6.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:06OHIO 4th & 1 at JXST 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.1
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:21OHIO 4th & 1 at JXST 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.3%−4.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:57OHIO 4th & 4 at JXST 5, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.5%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−9.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:24JXST 4th & 7 at OHIO 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3JXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:54JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:36JXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:28OHIO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:44OHIO Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:57JXST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:34OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.1%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3355% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
54.7%
Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHIO27 (#40 W.O'Steen; #93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
54.8%
Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass complete short right to #15 R.Neer caught at OHIO32, for 7 yards to the OHIO34 (#7 M.Woods; #8 J.Brooks)Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
54.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush left for 3 yards gain to the OHIO37 (#40 W.O'Steen; #15 T.Floyd), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
55.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 P.Bowman rush right for 1 yard loss to the OHIO36 (#15 T.Floyd)Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
55.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush middle for 6 yards gain to the OHIO42 (#7 M.Woods)Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+1
55.1%
(12:20) Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHIO43 (#35 A.Thompson; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q1 11:27
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
55.0%
#42 M.Haines punt 45 yards to the JAX12 fair catch by #1 C.Nix at JAX12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 6:3345% → 50%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
55.1%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX16 (#27 J.Fries; #30 C.Christopher)Similar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+15
55.0%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Johnson thrown to JAX22 PENALTY OHIO Pass Interference (#8 B.Dillon) 15 yards from JAX16 to JAX31, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
54.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #17 J.Williams caught at JAX29, for 8 yards to the JAX39 (#14 I.Ackerman), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+5
54.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JAX44 (#27 J.Fries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
54.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 0 yards to the JAX44 (#21 R.Jackson, Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
54.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #17 J.Williams caught at OHIO49, for 9 yards to the OHIO47 (#8 B.Dillon; #27 J.Fries)Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
54.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHIO44 (#27 J.Fries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #3 D.Cannon thrown to OHIO41 broken up by #50 O.DiFrancoSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
54.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at OHIO45, for 7 yards to the OHIO37 (#4 D.James-Hamilton)Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+8
54.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 8 yards gain to the OHIO29 (#20 K.Bannister), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
53.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #17 J.Williams caught at OHIO29, for 14 yards to the OHIO15 (#20 K.Bannister), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
53.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 4 yards loss to the OHIO19 (#9 T.Gillison)Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+11
54.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 11 yards gain to the OHIO08 (#2 D.Walker), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
49.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 8 yards gain to the OHIO00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:54, 1ST DOWN #37 G.Rippa kick attempt good (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:5551% → 50%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
51.2%
Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass complete short right to #6 D.Brune caught at OHIO32, for 9 yards to the OHIO40 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
51.8%
Shotgun #8 N.Poulos rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OHIO47 (#44 K.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
51.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Poulos sacked for loss of 5 yards to the OHIO42 (#15 T.Floyd)Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
50.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass incomplete short middle to #15 R.Neer thrown to JAX48Similar
Q1 3:09
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
50.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass incomplete short middle to #84 A.Miller thrown to OHIO45Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
49.7%
#42 M.Haines punt 52 yards to the JAX06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5050% → 50%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
50.5%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX09 (#25 M.Molnar; #27 J.Fries)Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+2
50.3%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JAX11 (#9 T.Gillison)Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+3
50.1%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX14 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q1 1:03
4TH & 2
OWN 14
0
50.2%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 43 yards to the OHIO43 fair catch by #4 D.James-Hamilton at OHIO43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1551% → 49%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
50.5%
Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHIO44 (#45 M.Rosa; #0 M.Butler)Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+2
50.2%
Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHIO46 (#9 J.Carr; #93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
49.6%
Shotgun #8 N.Poulos pass incomplete short middle to #3 D.Dorwart thrown to OHIO49 broken up by #44 K.PerrySimilar
Q2 14:48
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
48.6%
#42 M.Haines punt 36 yards to the JAX18 fair catch by #1 C.Nix at JAX18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6TD
1 play · 82 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+82
42.5%
Luke Gilbert 82 Yd pass from Caden Creel (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 7:0843% → 47%
Q2 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
43.4%
Shotgun #8 N.Poulos rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OHIO39 (#92 M.Hood)Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
43.2%
Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHIO42 (#9 J.Carr; #2 M.Joseph)Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
42.9%
Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHIO45 (#92 M.Hood; #1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
42.6%
Shotgun #8 N.Poulos rush right for 5 yards gain to the OHIO50 (#9 J.Carr) PENALTY JAX Targeting (#9 J.Carr) 15 yards from OHIO50 to JAX35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
42.9%
Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 7 yards gain to the JAX28 (#13 J.Cruz)Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+1
41.6%
Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JAX27 fumbled by #9 M.Vezza at JAX29 recovered by OHIO #9 M.Vezza at JAX27 (#16 Q.Hood; #0 M.Butler)Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+6
40.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 6 yards gain to the JAX21 (#3 T.Fegans; #0 M.Butler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
40.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX18 (#16 Q.Hood; #93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
40.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass incomplete short middle to #3 D.Dorwart thrown to JAX18 broken up by #40 W.O'SteenSimilar
Q2 9:52
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+8
39.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the JAX10 (#13 J.Cruz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
39.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza sacked for loss of 2 yards to the JAX12 (#13 J.Cruz)Similar
Q2 8:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+4
38.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush left for 4 yards gain to the JAX08 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
47.3%
Riley Neer 8 Yd pass from Matt Vezza (Brack Peacock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8FG
21 plays · 71 yds · 6:3156% → 65%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #11 D.Johnson thrown to JAX27 broken up by #9 T.GillisonSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
44.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at JAX40, for 18 yards to the JAX43 (#26 T.Long; #4 D.James-Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
41.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #3 D.Cannon thrown to JAX45Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
42.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep right to #30 L.Gilbert caught at OHIO36, for 57 yards to the OHIO00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 00:00 PENALTY JAX Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#62 H.Diaby) 5 yards from JAX43 to JAX38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+4
43.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush left for 4 yards gain to the JAX42 (#25 M.Molnar), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+25
42.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at OHIO36, for 25 yards to the OHIO33 (#20 K.Bannister), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
40.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OHIO29 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
40.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #17 J.Williams caught at OHIO29, for 2 yards to the OHIO27 (#25 M.Molnar)Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 4
OPP 27
0
40.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 0 yards to the OHIO27 (#14 I.Ackerman)Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+7
42.6%
No Huddle #41 C.Lewis pass complete short right to #14 A.Toombs caught at OHIO22, for 7 yards to the OHIO20 (#27 J.Fries), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
38.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #9 R.Johnson caught at OHIO03, for 18 yards to the OHIO02 (#2 D.Walker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
36.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 0 yards to the OHIO02 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+10
35.6%
(02:00) Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 2 yards gain to the OHIO00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 01:55 PENALTY JAX Holding (#70 J.Orr) 10 yards from OHIO02 to OHIO12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+7
35.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 7 yards gain to the OHIO05 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
37.6%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHIO04 (#0 N.Dukes; #99 T.Neubert)Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
34.8%
Garrison Rippa 22 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
49.6%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 13 yards gain to the JAX38 fumbled by #12 C.Creel at JAX32 forced by #25 M.Molnar recovered by OHIO #2 D.Walker at JAX38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11BLOCKED FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2955% → 50%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
54.5%
Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX35 (#92 M.Hood; #16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
52.9%
Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short right to #3 D.Dorwart caught at JAX43, for 6 yards to the JAX29 (#92 M.Hood)Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
50.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass incomplete, SpikeSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+47
49.7%
(00:06) #47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD blocked by #93 J.Campbell (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer), clock 00:00 (Ohio), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:5652% → 70%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
48.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush right for 5 yards gain to the JAX32 (#2 D.Walker)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
47.2%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX36 (#0 N.Dukes; #14 I.Ackerman)Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+2
47.3%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 2 yards gain to the JAX38 (#2 D.Walker; #25 M.Molnar), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
46.6%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short left to #30 L.Gilbert thrown to JAX48 broken up by #98 D.ReagansSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+16
46.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #7 K.Lando caught at JAX45, for 16 yards to the OHIO46 (#8 B.Dillon), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
45.8%
Shotgun #7 K.Lando rush middle for 3 yards loss to the OHIO49 (#25 M.Molnar)Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+6
46.8%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #17 J.Williams caught at JAX48, for 6 yards to the OHIO43 (#4 D.James-Hamilton; #21 R.Jackson, Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 10:53
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+9
45.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OHIO34 (#8 B.Dillon; #3 J.Haskins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
44.2%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #11 D.Johnson caught at OHIO36, for 2 yards to the OHIO32 (#27 J.Fries)Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+14
42.7%
Shotgun #17 J.Williams pass complete short left to #12 C.Creel caught at OHIO18, for 14 yards to the OHIO18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
42.1%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short middle to #30 L.Gilbert thrown to OHIO10Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+15
42.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 15 yards gain to the OHIO03 (#2 D.Walker; #57 N.Hale), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
41.9%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 1 yard loss to the OHIO04 fumbled by #12 C.Creel at OHIO05 recovered by JAX #12 C.Creel at OHIO04 (#21 R.Jackson, Jr.)Similar
Q3 7:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.2%
Khristian Lando 4 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 8:0032% → 34%
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
31.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short left to #86 A.Metzger caught at OHIO33, for 18 yards to the OHIO43 (#0 M.Butler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
33.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush left for 3 yards gain to the OHIO46 (#8 J.Brooks; #13 J.Cruz)Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
33.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the JAX46 (#93 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
32.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass incomplete short left to #12 E.Pugh thrown to JAX31 broken up by #8 J.BrooksSimilar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
32.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JAX41 (#44 K.Perry)Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+4
31.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX37 (#6 K.Cook; #0 M.Butler)Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+12
29.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 12 yards gain to the JAX25 (#3 T.Fegans; #35 A.Thompson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
32.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush right for 2 yards gain to the JAX23 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+12
31.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 12 yards gain to the JAX11 (#7 M.Woods), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
31.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX08 (#45 M.Rosa; #16 Q.Hood)Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OPP 8
0
30.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short right to #33 J.Furtney caught at JAX11, for 0 yards to the JAX08 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+3
28.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX05 (#93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
34.4%
Will Hryszko 23 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:3371% → 77%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 D.Cannon caught at JAX21, for 5 yards to the JAX30 (#3 J.Haskins)Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
26.3%
Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush left for 9 yards gain to the JAX39 (#27 J.Fries; #3 J.Haskins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
24.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short left to #3 D.Cannon caught at JAX35, for 4 yards to the JAX43 (#3 J.Haskins)Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+4
24.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 4 yards gain to the JAX47 (#98 D.Reagans; #14 I.Ackerman)Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
24.1%
Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush middle for 3 yards gain to the JAX50 (#3 J.Haskins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
50
+2
22.8%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHIO48 (#27 J.Fries)Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
22.7%
Shotgun #32 C.Kouemi rush middle for 4 yards gain to the OHIO44 (#25 M.Molnar; #0 N.Dukes)Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-3
22.2%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 3 yards loss to the OHIO47 (#20 K.Bannister) PENALTY JAX Holding declinedSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
22.7%
#87 C.Donaghy punt 37 yards to the OHIO10 fair catch by #4 D.James-Hamilton at OHIO10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD
21 plays · 90 yds · 8:5027% → 66%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
27.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OHIO17 (#15 T.Floyd; #1 C.Nix)Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
27.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHIO19 (#40 W.O'Steen; #44 K.Perry)Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
26.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 2 yards gain to the OHIO21 (#7 M.Woods; #44 K.Perry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
27.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush right for 3 yards gain to the OHIO24 (#0 M.Butler)Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+15
26.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short middle to #15 R.Neer caught at OHIO38, for 15 yards to the OHIO39, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
28.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush left for 8 yards gain to the OHIO47 (#1 C.Nix), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:42
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+2
29.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 P.Bowman rush right for 2 yards gain to the OHIO49 (#6 K.Cook; #22 J.Jenkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
27.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush middle for 8 yards gain to the JAX43 (#1 C.Nix)Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+8
28.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short left to #15 R.Neer caught at JAX44, for 8 yards to the JAX35 (#6 K.Cook), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
29.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short right to #2 P.Bowman caught at JAX40, for 3 yards loss to the JAX38, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+5
25.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass incomplete short left to #15 R.Neer thrown to JAX25 PENALTY OHIO Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#74 T.Cisse) 5 yards from JAX38 to JAX43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+14
24.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short right to #6 D.Brune caught at JAX40, for 14 yards to the JAX29 (#40 W.O'Steen)Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+11
28.6%
(04:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short middle to #3 D.Dorwart caught at JAX18, for 11 yards to the JAX18 (#1 C.Nix), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
30.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza pass complete short right to #4 V.Rosa caught at JAX19, for 3 yards to the JAX15 (#13 J.Cruz), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
29.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JAX14 (#92 M.Hood; #93 J.Campbell)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+11
25.2%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 M.Vezza rush right for 11 yards gain to the JAX03 (#1 C.Nix; #13 J.Cruz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
29.2%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Davis rush left for 2 yards gain to the JAX01 (#7 M.Woods)Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Brune rush middle for 0 yards to the JAX01 (#53 I.Mitchell; #90 M.Stringfellow)Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.8%
Victor Rosa 1 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 16MISSED FG
17 plays · 55 yds · 1:2949% → 56%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 0 yards to the JAX25 (#0 N.Dukes; #14 I.Ackerman)Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
53.3%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at JAX39, for 15 yards to the JAX40 (#3 J.Haskins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
48.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short middle to #22 L.Farrington caught at JAX45, for 6 yards to the JAX46 (#25 M.Molnar; #27 J.Fries)Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 4
OWN 46
0
46.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Johnson thrown to JAX49Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+5
47.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #22 L.Farrington caught at JAX42, for 5 yards to the OHIO49 (#8 B.Dillon), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
45.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 7 yards gain to the OHIO42 (#27 J.Fries), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
44.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 2 yards gain to the OHIO40 (#3 J.Haskins)Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+23
44.4%
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete short right to #22 L.Farrington caught at OHIO42, for 23 yards to the OHIO17 (#25 M.Molnar), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
39.0%
Kneel down by Jacksonville St. at OHIO18 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-2
39.2%
Kneel down by Jacksonville St. at OHIO20 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 13
OPP 20
+38
43.9%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 38 yards NO GOOD (H: #1 C.Nix, LS: #45 D.Musgrove), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0059% → 51%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
41.1%
PENALTY JAX Illegal Substitution 5 yards from OHIO25 to OHIO30. NO PLAYSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+3
42.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHIO27 (#0 N.Dukes; #14 I.Ackerman)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+7
41.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 7 yards gain to the OHIO20 (#20 K.Bannister), out of boundsSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+3
43.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 3 yards gain to the OHIO17 (#3 J.Haskins)Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+1
48.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OHIO16 (#25 M.Molnar; #14 I.Ackerman), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18BLOCKED FG
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 59%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush middle for 0 yards to the JAX25 (#93 J.Campbell; #92 M.Hood)Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
65.4%
PENALTY OHIO Offside (#12 E.Pugh) 5 yards from JAX25 to JAX30. NO PLAYSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+1
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Davis rush middle for 1 yard gain to the JAX29 (#8 J.Brooks)Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+5
59.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush middle for 5 yards gain to the JAX24 (#13 J.Cruz; #8 J.Brooks)Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
58.8%
#47 W.Hryszko field goal attempt from 42 yards NO GOOD blocked by #7 M.Woods (H: #42 M.Haines, LS: #46 N.Hemer), clock 00:00 recovered by JAX #1 C.Nix at JAX01 #1 C.Nix return 26 yards to the JAX27 (#71 C.Hulbert) PENALTY OHIO Horse Collar Tackle declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 79%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
65.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 V.Rosa rush right for 1 yard loss to the JAX26 (#15 T.Floyd)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+1
65.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Davis pass complete short left to #4 V.Rosa caught at JAX30, for 1 yard to the JAX25 (#6 K.Cook)Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
62.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Davis pass incomplete short right to #33 J.Furtney thrown to JAX23. The previous play is under automatic review - "Incomplete pass". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: No Huddle-Shotgun #7 L.Davis pass intercepted by #6 K.Cook at , End Of Play)Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
79.4%
Will Hryszko 43 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 20FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0029% → 48%
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
71.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 9 yards gain to the OHIO16 (#25 M.Molnar)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+3
71.4%
Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush right for 3 yards gain to the OHIO13 (#9 T.Gillison; #14 I.Ackerman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
OT2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
71.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush middle for 7 yards gain to the OHIO06 (#14 I.Ackerman)Similar
OT2 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 6
0
71.4%
Shotgun #12 C.Creel rush left for 0 yards to the OHIO06 (#25 M.Molnar)Similar
OT2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-4
75.0%
Shotgun #22 L.Farrington rush middle for 4 yards loss to the OHIO10 (#25 M.Molnar)Similar
OT2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
52.1%
Garrison Rippa 28 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:34
Victor Rosa 1 Yd Run (Will Hryszko Kick)
+55
FG · OT2 0:00
Garrison Rippa 28 Yd Field Goal
-27.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com