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Holy Cross 7 at Miami (OH) 45

M-OH
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadHC aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreHC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:59 · (03:04) #48 A.Garrett punt 33 yards to the MIA33 fair catch by #1 M.Huggins at MIA33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Pregame prior+3.8Home team on offense+36.0Score differential+30.7Blowout margin+17.4Garbage-time factor+11.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:31: (09:37) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush left for 3 yards gain to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:31 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +0.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:16: (02:23) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #15 C.Ross caught at CHC31, for 34 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:35: (13:35) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 2 yards gain to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +1.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:31: (10:35) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #8 D.Witten caught at CHC00, for 10 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:31, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman) — M-OH win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 8:26: Leo Colombi 23 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kellan McLaughlin Kick) — M-OH win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: HC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:23HC 4th & 7 at HC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01HC 4th & 13 at HC 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:19HC 4th & 11 at HC 24, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:04HC 4th & 11 at HC 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:26HC 4th & 10 at HC 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:29HC 4th & 10 at M-OH 31, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:25M-OH 4th & 6 at HC 6, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 5:57M-OH 4th & 7 at midfield, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:59HC 4th & 5 at HC 34, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5HC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:31M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:16M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:31M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:26M-OH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:11M-OH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:30HC Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:314% → 4%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.4%
(14:57) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CHC26 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
96.3%
(14:17) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush left for 2 yards gain to the CHC28 (#43 G.Lyons; #20 Z.Scott)Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.2%
(13:33) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Curran thrown to CHC32Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.1%
(13:30) #49 E.Moss punt 30 yards to the MIA42 #10 L.Billups-Williams return 0 yards to the MIA42 (#37 C.Mills)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:5296% → 96%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
96.2%
PENALTY CHC Offside (#50 G.Flores) 5 yards from MIA42 to MIA47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+3
96.1%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA50 (#55 C.Ackerman)Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
50
+10
96.0%
(12:48) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #15 C.Ross caught at CHC40, for 10 yards to the CHC40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
95.9%
(12:06) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at CHC43, for 6 yards to the CHC34 (#7 C.Onwuzurigbo)Similar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+10
95.9%
(11:22) Shotgun #24 S.Smith rush left for 10 yards gain to the CHC24 (#12 C.Boone), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
95.8%
(10:49) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 7 yards gain to the CHC17 (#53 W.Miller; #50 G.Flores)Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+14
95.6%
(10:13) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 14 yards gain to the CHC03 (#7 C.Onwuzurigbo; #20 G.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.8%
(09:37) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush left for 3 yards gain to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:31 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:304% → 5%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.7%
(09:31) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CHC31 (#3 M.McCain; #1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
95.7%
(09:31) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #2 L.Fisher caught at CHC37, for 9 yards to the CHC40 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
95.7%
(09:31) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the CHC43 (#22 B.Jobe)Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
95.6%
(09:31) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Curran thrown to CHC45Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-6
95.7%
(09:31) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch sacked for loss of 6 yards to the CHC37 (#35 T.Dikos)Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
95.4%
(09:31) #49 E.Moss punt 38 yards to the MIA25 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:4595% → 96%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
95.4%
(07:01) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #1 M.Huggins caught at MIA33, for 18 yards to the MIA43 (#27 C.Fountain), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.5%
(06:25) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 0 yards to the MIA43 (#50 G.Flores)Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
95.3%
(05:45) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA49 (#6 C.Crocetti)Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+7
95.2%
(04:57) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #15 C.Ross caught at CHC44, for 7 yards to the CHC44 (#14 B.Haas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
95.2%
PENALTY MIA False Start (#74 G.Smith Jr.) 5 yards from CHC44 to CHC49. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+8
95.1%
(04:14) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #1 M.Huggins caught at MIA48, for 8 yards to the CHC41 (#53 W.Miller), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+5
95.1%
(03:42) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CHC36 (#53 W.Miller; #6 C.Crocetti)Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
94.9%
(03:00) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CHC34 (#55 C.Ackerman; #8 A.Due), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
95.9%
(02:23) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #15 C.Ross caught at CHC31, for 34 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:444% → 4%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.6%
(02:15) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #3 T.Curran caught at CHC22, for 1 yard loss to the CHC24 (#15 B.Myrick)Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.6%
(01:33) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete deep left to #3 T.Curran thrown to CHC50 QB hurried by #43 G.LyonsSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
95.6%
(01:28) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short middle to #88 S.Gordon thrown to CHC40 QB hurried by #32 J.SchottSimilar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
95.6%
(01:24) #49 E.Moss punt 30 yards to the MIA46 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6TD
8 plays · 54 yds · 2:4496% → 97%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
95.9%
(01:19) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #15 C.Ross caught at CHC40, for 14 yards to the CHC40, out of bounds at CHC40 PENALTY MIA Pass Interference (#2 C.Jenkins Jr) 10 yards from MIA46 to MIA36. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+23
95.7%
(00:59) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #2 C.Jenkins Jr caught at CHC45, for 23 yards to the CHC41 (#27 C.Fountain; #2 L.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
95.8%
(00:20) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short left to #24 S.Smith caught at CHC43, for 23 yards to the CHC18 (#8 A.Due), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
95.8%
(15:00) Shotgun #0 R.Nelson rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CHC08 (#8 A.Due; #20 G.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
95.8%
(14:28) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CHC06 (#53 W.Miller; #14 B.Haas)Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
95.8%
(13:43) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass incomplete short left to #18 B.Isom thrown to CHC00 broken up by #12 C.Boone PENALTY CHC Pass Interference (#12 C.Boone) 4 yards from CHC06 to CHC02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.4%
(13:35) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 2 yards gain to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
(13:35) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete deep left to #2 L.Fisher thrown to MIA49Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
(13:28) Shotgun #6 C.Swanson rush left for 0 yards to the CHC25 (#99 O.Alexander)Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.2%
(12:46) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CHC24 (#4 B.Rice)Similar
Q2 12:04
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
97.3%
(12:09) #48 A.Garrett punt 34 yards to the MIA42 fair catch by #10 L.Billups-Williams at MIA42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:2498% → 98%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
97.5%
(12:04) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIA42, for 20 yards to the CHC38 (#95 A.Horodnik), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+28
97.6%
(11:18) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #1 M.Huggins caught at CHC30, for 28 yards to the CHC10 (#14 B.Haas), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
98.4%
(10:35) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #8 D.Witten caught at CHC00, for 10 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:31, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 9PUNT TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q2 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.7%
(10:31) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #40 J.Croce caught at CHC25, for 5 yards to the CHC30 (#3 M.McCain), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
98.6%
(09:55) Shotgun #40 J.Croce rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CHC34 (#43 G.Lyons; #24 M.Yharbrough)Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
98.6%
(09:11) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch rush right for 4 yards loss to the CHC30 (#3 M.McCain)Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+23
99.1%
Leo Colombi 23 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:511% → 1%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.1%
(08:22) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CHC27 (#1 D.Tatum; #26 E.Coppess)Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.2%
(07:45) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #2 L.Fisher caught at CHC33, for 7 yards to the CHC34 (#0 A.Knighten)Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
99.1%
(07:01) Shotgun #6 C.Swanson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CHC38 (#3 M.McCain; #26 E.Coppess), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
(06:25) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Jones thrown to CHC45 broken up by #0 A.KnightenSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
(06:22) Shotgun #1 D.Jones rush left for 0 yards to the CHC38 (#15 B.Myrick; #52 M.Moore Jr)Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.3%
PENALTY CHC False Start (#75 T.Bachelder) 5 yards from CHC38 to CHC33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+36
99.4%
(05:28) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short left to #88 S.Gordon caught at CHC30, for 36 yards to the MIA31 (#35 T.Dikos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
(04:46) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete deep left to #44 M.McSweeney thrown to MIA10Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
99.3%
(04:43) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short left to #11 R.Newton thrown to MIA25Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
99.4%
(04:40) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short left to #2 L.Fisher thrown to MIA25 broken up by #26 E.CoppessSimilar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+8
99.0%
(04:34) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short middle to #40 J.Croce caught at MIA26, for 8 yards to the MIA23 (#21 T.Coleman Jr.), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 11TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 3:0699% → 100%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
99.2%
(04:28) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at MIA34, for 19 yards to the MIA42 (#14 B.Haas; #22 R.Burton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
99.3%
(03:43) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA46 (#55 C.Ackerman)Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+22
99.3%
(03:02) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush middle for 22 yards gain to the CHC32 (#14 B.Haas), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.3%
(02:18) Shotgun #16 D.McComb rush right for 3 yards gain to the CHC29 (#12 C.Boone)Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+1
99.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 1 yard gain to the CHC28 (#53 W.Miller)Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+28
99.5%
(01:16) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete deep left to #10 L.Billups-Williams caught at CHC02, for 28 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:11, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
(01:11) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #3 T.Curran caught at CHC21, for 2 yards to the CHC27 (#15 B.Myrick; #1 D.Tatum)Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
(00:45) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush middle for 0 yards to the CHC27 (#15 B.Myrick; #4 B.Rice)Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
99.6%
(00:09) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete deep right to #3 T.Curran thrown to CHC48 broken up by #17 B.Minich PENALTY MIA Holding (#17 B.Minich) 10 yards from CHC27 to CHC37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.6%
(00:03) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short right thrown to CHC40 QB hurried by #4 B.RiceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 13FG
15 plays · 69 yds · 9:35100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MIA27 (#32 D.Leupold)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
99.6%
Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA32 (#97 V.Ferrara)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
99.6%
Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush middle for 7 yards gain to the MIA39 (#32 D.Leupold; #55 C.Ackerman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.6%
Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass complete short right to #3 Q.Simmons Jr. caught at MIA37, for 2 yards to the MIA41 (#8 A.Due)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+5
99.6%
Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MIA46 (#14 B.Haas)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+3
99.6%
Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MIA49 (#8 A.Due), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
99.7%
Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush right for 19 yards gain to the CHC32 (#14 B.Haas; #8 A.Due), 1ST DOWN. #14 B.Haas injured on the playSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
99.7%
(09:33) Shotgun #21 L.Rogers rush left for 10 yards gain to the CHC22 (#22 R.Burton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.7%
(08:50) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner pass incomplete short right to #84 T.Reed thrown to CHC18 broken up by #12 C.BooneSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.7%
(08:46) Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush left for 12 yards gain to the CHC10 (#20 G.Baldwin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
99.8%
(08:01) Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CHC11 (#6 C.Crocetti; #22 R.Burton). #12 C.Boone injured on the playSimilar
Q3 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-1
99.8%
(07:00) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush right for 1 yard loss to the CHC12 (#53 W.Miller; #22 R.Burton)Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+6
99.8%
(06:15) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush left for 6 yards gain to the CHC06 (#7 C.Onwuzurigbo)Similar
Q3 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
99.8%
(05:27) #38 K.McLaughlin field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman), clock 05:25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:470% → 0%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.8%
(05:25) Shotgun #1 D.Jones rush right for 14 yards gain to the CHC39 (#35 T.Dikos), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.8%
(04:42) Shotgun #1 D.Jones rush left for 4 yards gain to the CHC43 (#16 C.McKinney; #9 J.Hammonds)Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+21
99.8%
(03:57) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short left to #0 J.Williams caught at CHC42, for 21 yards to the MIA36 (#6 J.Agee; #37 V.McConnell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
99.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #0 J.Williams rush right for 3 yards gain to the MIA33 (#16 C.McKinney; #67 C.Noonan)Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
99.8%
(02:51) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete deep middle to #84 D.Tyme thrown to MIA10Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
(02:46) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #88 S.Gordon caught at MIA31, for 8 yards to the MIA25 (#18 I.Rollins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
99.9%
(01:59) Shotgun #6 C.Swanson rush right for 0 yards to the MIA25 (#18 I.Rollins; #16 C.McKinney)Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
99.9%
(01:19) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short left to #88 S.Gordon caught at MIA22, for 10 yards to the MIA15 (#37 V.McConnell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
(00:36) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short right to #2 L.Fisher caught at MIA00, for 15 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:30, 1ST DOWN #36 O.Saraceno kick attempt good (H: #49 E.Moss, LS: #90 C.Mackey)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 9:32100% → 100%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(00:29) Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush right for 0 yards to the MIA25 (#22 R.Burton)Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
(10:00) Shotgun #6 C.Heavner rush right for 11 yards gain to the MIA36 (#21 A.Redfern), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
(09:41) Shotgun #20 C.Yacamelli rush right for 5 yards gain to the MIA41 (#53 W.Miller)Similar
Q4 8:53
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
(09:01) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MIA47 (#7 C.Onwuzurigbo; #53 W.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
(08:17) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush left for 4 yards gain to the CHC49 (#97 V.Ferrara)Similar
Q4 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
(07:33) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CHC50 fumbled by #22 C.Sparks at MIA48 forced by #95 A.Horodnik recovered by MIA #6 C.Heavner at MIA50, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 7
50
0
99.9%
(06:49) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush left for 0 yards to the MIA50 (#43 M.Brink)Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 7
50
0
99.9%
(06:04) #34 P.Stainton punt 40 yards to the CHC10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:450% → 0%
Q4 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.9%
(05:56) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch rush left for 6 yards gain to the CHC16 (#14 L.Myers), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+13
100.0%
(05:15) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short left to #13 L.Weir caught at CHC29, for 13 yards to the CHC29, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
100.0%
(04:36) Shotgun #40 J.Croce rush right for 2 yards gain to the CHC31 (#37 V.McConnell; #6 J.Agee)Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
100.0%
(03:50) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass incomplete short right to #88 S.Gordon thrown to CHC40 QB hurried by #37 V.McConnell and #90 D.DavisSimilar
Q4 3:43
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+5
100.0%
PENALTY CHC False Start (#88 S.Gordon) 5 yards from CHC31 to CHC26. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 13
OWN 26
+8
100.0%
(03:43) Shotgun #16 D.Lynch pass complete short left to #40 J.Croce caught at CHC25, for 8 yards to the CHC34 (#37 V.McConnell; #2 J.Pons), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 2:59
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
100.0%
(03:04) #48 A.Garrett punt 33 yards to the MIA33 fair catch by #1 M.Huggins at MIA33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 17END OF GAME
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
100.0%
(02:58) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush right for 4 yards gain to the MIA37 (#91 B.Fodor)Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
100.0%
(02:16) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MIA45 (#21 A.Redfern; #19 M.Coleman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
100.0%
(02:00) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush right for 0 yards to the MIA45 (#42 R.Vilane)Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
(01:19) Shotgun #22 C.Sparks rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MIA49 (#92 D.Manuilow; #32 D.Leupold)Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-1
100.0%
(00:34) Kneel down by #6 C.Heavner at MIA48 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:35
(13:35) Shotgun #9 D.Jones rush right for 2 yards gain to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:35 #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)
+1.6
TD · Q1 2:16
(02:23) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #15 C.Ross caught at CHC31, for 34 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:16, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)
+1
TD · Q2 10:31
(10:35) Shotgun #16 D.McComb pass complete short right to #8 D.Witten caught at CHC00, for 10 yards to the CHC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:31, 1ST DOWN #38 K.McLaughlin kick attempt good (H: #34 P.Stainton, LS: #60 T.Wallman)
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com