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COLG

Colgate 10 at Central Michigan 13

CMU
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadCOLG aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreCOLG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:56 · (10:01) #18 D.Duley punt 37 yards to the CU40, out of bounds at CU40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+30.9Home team on offense−4.1Garbage-time factor−1.6Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:24: Angel Flores 50 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis PAT blocked) — CMU win probability +18.7 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:33: Timeout Colgate, clock 07:33 — COLG win probability +19.0 pts (now 67%) (top driver: COLG has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:33: Timeout Central Michigan, clock 07:33 — CMU win probability +23.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 7:29: Vaughn Blue 6 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick) — CMU win probability +27.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:02: (00:02) Kneel down by Central Michigan at CMU27 for loss of 1 yard — CMU win probability +13.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8COLG made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 12:04COLG 4th & 11 at COLG 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:15CMU 4th & 7 at COLG 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:11COLG 4th & 5 at CMU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.0%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:56CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:03CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:51CMU 4th & 12 at COLG 34, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.2 ptsPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48COLG 4th & 6 at COLG 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36COLG 4th & 6 at CMU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:47COLG 4th & 10 at COLG 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:55CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.8%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:24CMU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.3%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:59COLG 4th & 8 at COLG 48, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:23CMU 4th & 9 at COLG 47, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.2%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:41CMU 4th & 4 at COLG 32, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.3 ptsPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−2.6
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−7.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2COLG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 11:48COLG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:24CMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:29CMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLGDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:509% → 9%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.3%
(15:00) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 8 yards gain to the CU33 (#40 B.McCalla; #14 J.Taylor)Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
91.1%
(14:24) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short middle to #2 W.Moore caught at CU37, for 6 yards to the CU39 (#11 X.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
90.9%
PENALTY CU False Start (#80 M.Stevenson) 5 yards from CU39 to CU34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 15
OWN 34
+2
90.9%
(13:31) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short left to #21 D.Shaban caught at CU30, for 2 yards to the CU36 (#11 X.White)Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
90.7%
(12:51) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short right to #2 W.Moore thrown to CMU46 QB hurried by #92 J.CherrySimilar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+2
90.7%
(12:47) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #2 W.Moore caught at CU34, for 2 yards to the CU38 (#20 J.Jones; #35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
90.6%
(12:08) #37 T.Fontenot punt 10 yards to the CU48, out of bounds at CU48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2MISSED FG
13 plays · 37 yds · 6:3991% → 89%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
90.6%
(12:04) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #17 B.Naves caught at CU43, for 5 yards to the CU43 QB hurried by #92 B.Winsett (#10 J.Toler)Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+1
90.5%
(11:27) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CU42 (#4 C.Magliacano; #18 T.Price)Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
90.3%
(10:46) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU38 (#6 T.Wynn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
90.2%
(10:10) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush right for 12 yards gain to the CU26 (#22 K.Langston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
90.1%
(09:30) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush right for 3 yards gain to the CU23 (#51 C.Toddings; #96 A.DeSantis)Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
89.9%
(09:01) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU20 (#24 J.Edgecomb)Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
89.6%
(08:24) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CU14 (#6 T.Wynn), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+10
89.6%
(07:44) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush left for 2 yards gain to the CU12 (#23 R.Allan) PENALTY CMU Holding (#31 J.Clerveaux) 10 yards from CU14 to CU24. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+3
89.4%
(07:21) Shotgun #2 B.Townsend rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU21 (#51 C.Toddings; #0 J.Kelly)Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 17
OPP 21
+4
89.1%
(06:42) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short middle to #20 L.Lewis caught at CU17, for 4 yards to the CU17 (#18 T.Price)Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+6
88.8%
(05:58) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CU11 (#44 J.Tedim)Similar
Q1 5:15
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+29
88.6%
(05:17) #38 C.VanHuis field goal attempt from 29 yards NO GOOD (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #57 C.Ridderhoff), clock 05:15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0012% → 13%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
88.2%
(05:15) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #2 W.Moore caught at CU19, for 13 yards to the CU33 (#12 D.Philord; #19 D.Bryant Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
87.9%
(04:35) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU36 (#0 D.Bennett; #11 X.White)Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
87.5%
(04:00) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short left to #2 W.Moore thrown to CU48Similar
Q1 3:48
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+4
87.7%
(03:54) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney rush left for 4 yards gain to the CU40 (#40 B.McCalla), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 3
OPP 0
0
87.1%
(03:15) #37 T.Fontenot punt 40 yards to the CMU20 fair catch by #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. at CMU20 PENALTY CU Kick Catch Interference (#28 C.Naumann) 15 yards from CMU35 to CMU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3088% → 88%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
87.6%
(03:08) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete short middle to #3 N.Williams thrown to CMU49 broken up by #4 C.MagliacanoSimilar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
87.5%
(03:04) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass complete short left to #20 L.Lewis caught at CMU41, for 8 yards to the CMU43 (#10 J.Toler), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+7
87.7%
(02:24) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CMU50 (#10 J.Toler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
50
-20
87.7%
(01:43) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass intercepted by #4 C.Magliacano at CU38 #4 C.Magliacano return 20 yards to the CMU42 (#85 M.Peters), out of boundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 5TD
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:3514% → 21%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
85.8%
(01:32) Shotgun #24 O.Faison rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU40 (#48 N.VanTimmeren)Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
85.6%
(00:56) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney rush left for 3 yards gain to the CMU37 (#20 J.Jones; #35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
85.4%
(00:15) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short middle to #21 D.Shaban thrown to CMU32 QB hurried by #6 H.ZirkleSimilar
Q1 0:11
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+8
85.7%
(00:11) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #7 K.Phillips caught at CMU32, for 8 yards to the CMU29 (#20 J.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
84.7%
(14:59) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU26 (#35 M.Hitchens; #48 N.VanTimmeren)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
84.3%
(14:22) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short left to #80 M.Stevenson caught at CMU28, for 0 yards to the CMU26 (#35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q2 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+7
84.5%
(13:42) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney rush right for 7 yards gain to the CMU19 (#14 J.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.7%
(13:05) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short middle to #2 W.Moore thrown to CMU02Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
83.7%
(13:01) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush right for 6 yards gain to the CMU13 (#40 B.McCalla), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+10
84.0%
(12:22) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #21 D.Shaban caught at CMU12, for 10 yards to the CMU03 (#26 M.McKenzie; #35 M.Hitchens), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.3%
(11:51) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:48 #95 L.Vogeler kick attempt good (H: #17 J.Kilburg, LS: #53 P.Cramer)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · -2 yds · 1:4481% → 79%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.2%
(11:48) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU30 (#65 D.Rodd)Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
81.1%
(11:11) Shotgun #3 N.Williams rush left for 5 yards gain to the CMU35 (#18 T.Price), out of bounds PENALTY CMU Holding (#8 R.VanWetzinga) 10 yards from CMU30 to CMU20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
80.2%
(10:45) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete short middle to #81 T.Vanderleest caught at CMU22, for 3 yards to the CMU23 (#4 C.Magliacano)Similar
Q2 10:04
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
79.4%
(10:08) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass incomplete short middle to #3 N.Williams thrown to CMU35 QB hurried by #92 B.WinsettSimilar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
78.9%
(10:01) #18 D.Duley punt 37 yards to the CU40, out of bounds at CU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 7FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 2:0621% → 25%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
79.2%
(09:56) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CU46 (#26 M.McKenzie; #11 X.White)Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+12
78.3%
(09:15) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short middle to #14 M.Fogler thrown to CMU40, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (#12 D.Philord) 12 yards from CU46 to CMU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
77.4%
(09:11) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush right for 0 yards to the CMU42 (#48 N.VanTimmeren; #97 M.Van Fleet)Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
76.8%
(08:28) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush right for 0 yards to the CMU42 (#12 D.Philord; #11 X.White)Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-2
75.1%
(07:45) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney sacked for loss of 2 yards to the CMU44 (#6 H.Zirkle), fumble by #15 J.Stearney recovered by CMU #6 H.Zirkle at CMU44, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2578% → 78%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
78.1%
(07:34) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CMU43 (#20 C.Jarrett)Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
77.0%
(06:55) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush left for 4 yards gain to the CMU47 (#6 T.Wynn; #18 T.Price), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
78.4%
(06:19) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete deep left to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CU14 broken up by #22 K.LangstonSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
77.6%
(06:10) #18 D.Duley punt 33 yards to the CU20 fair catch by #6 T.Wynn at CU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:0929% → 31%
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
70.6%
(06:02) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CU25 (#14 J.Taylor; #96 Q.Bird)Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
69.2%
(05:23) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU29 (#92 J.Cherry; #35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q2 4:49
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
68.6%
(04:55) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU32 fumbled by #21 D.Shaban at CU30 forced by #92 J.Cherry recovered by CMU #5 K.Demma at CU32, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5379% → 75%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
79.3%
(04:49) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush middle for 0 yards to the CU32 (#24 J.Edgecomb; #44 J.Tedim)Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
78.8%
(04:10) Shotgun #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the CU27 (#6 T.Wynn), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-4
77.6%
(03:42) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CU34 (#4 C.Magliacano, #44 J.Tedim)Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 12
OPP 34
0
74.5%
(02:53) #18 D.Duley punt 34 yards to the CU00, Touchback PENALTY CU Holding (#20 C.Jarrett) 10 yards from CU20 to CU10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5828% → 22%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-1
71.6%
(02:50) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 1 yard loss to the CU09 (#5 K.Demma; #1 J.Douglas)Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
71.2%
(02:12) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU13 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.; #0 D.Bennett)Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+1
74.6%
(01:59) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CU14 (#6 H.Zirkle; #1 J.Douglas)Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 14
0
77.6%
(01:55) #48 C.Wilkie punt 56 yards to the CMU30, out of bounds at CMU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12INT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3475% → 73%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
74.6%
(01:47) PENALTY CMU False Start (#20 L.Lewis) 5 yards from CMU30 to CMU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
74.2%
(01:47) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete short left to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU30 broken up by #6 T.WynnSimilar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+2
74.1%
(01:43) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU27 (#18 T.Price; #4 C.Magliacano)Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 13
OWN 27
-15
72.8%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass intercepted by #23 R.Allan at CMU50 #23 R.Allan return 15 yards to the CMU35 (#24 V.Blue)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 13FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3527% → 30%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
72.6%
(01:14) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short middle to #7 K.Phillips thrown to CMU25 broken up by #11 X.WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
72.6%
(01:10) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short left to #2 W.Moore caught at CMU35, for 4 yards to the CMU31 (#40 B.McCalla)Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
72.0%
(00:44) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete deep right to #2 W.Moore thrown to CMU07 QB hurried by #35 M.HitchensSimilar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
70.5%
(00:39) #95 L.Vogeler field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #17 J.Kilburg, LS: #53 P.Cramer), clock 00:36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0963% → 64%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
62.8%
(00:30) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass complete short middle to #8 R.VanWetzinga caught at CMU25, for 8 yards to the CMU29 (#34 P.Dogui)Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
66.0%
(00:17) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. thrown to CMU34Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+10
65.0%
(00:13) Shotgun #10 M.Beamon rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU32 (#18 T.Price), out of bounds PENALTY CMU Holding (#31 J.Clerveaux) 10 yards from CMU29 to CMU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+15
64.2%
(00:07) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush middle for 15 yards gain to the CMU34 (#6 T.Wynn; #18 T.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FUMBLE
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:5864% → 55%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
63.6%
(14:55) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU40 (#0 J.Kelly; #18 T.Price)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
63.6%
(14:17) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU45 (#4 C.Magliacano)Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+8
62.2%
(13:39) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush right for 8 yards gain to the CU47 (#18 T.Price; #23 R.Allan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.2%
(12:56) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush middle for 0 yards to the CU47 (#20 C.Jarrett; #18 T.Price)Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+3
60.9%
(12:18) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CU44 (#65 D.Rodd)Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+14
59.8%
(11:39) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 14 yards gain to the CU30 (#6 T.Wynn; #22 K.Langston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
60.9%
(11:02) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush right for 4 yards gain to the CU26 (#10 J.Toler)Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
60.2%
(10:22) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CU19 (#44 J.Tedim; #18 T.Price), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
59.1%
(09:44) Shotgun #7 A.Flores sacked for loss of 5 yards to the CU24 (#44 J.Tedim, #18 T.Price)Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 15
OPP 24
0
57.1%
(09:03) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete deep middle to #85 M.Peters thrown to CU00 broken up by #43 J.KoettingSimilar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 15
OPP 24
-2
54.8%
(08:58) Shotgun #7 A.Flores sacked for loss of 2 yards to the CU26 (#34 P.Dogui), fumble by #7 A.Flores recovered by CU #96 A.DeSantis at CU26, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:0046% → 52%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
53.7%
(08:52) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU30 (#92 J.Cherry; #40 B.McCalla)Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+9
52.1%
(08:09) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CU39 (#11 X.White; #4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
48.9%
(07:28) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush left for 0 yards to the CU39 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.; #11 X.White), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
48.0%
(06:39) Shotgun #24 O.Faison rush left for 0 yards to the CU39 (#11 X.White; #40 B.McCalla)Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
46.6%
(05:56) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short middle to #14 M.Fogler thrown to CMU45 broken up by #19 D.Bryant Jr.Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
48.3%
(05:51) #37 T.Fontenot punt 48 yards to the CMU13, out of bounds at CMU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 5:1847% → 59%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
47.4%
(05:47) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU14 (#20 C.Jarrett)Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+5
46.5%
(05:13) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU19 (#18 T.Price; #43 J.Koetting)Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+3
43.9%
(04:33) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU22 (#44 J.Tedim; #96 A.DeSantis)Similar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+3
42.4%
(03:59) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU25 (#6 T.Wynn; #10 J.Toler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
43.5%
(03:20) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU26 (#24 J.Edgecomb; #43 J.Koetting)Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
41.8%
(02:42) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete short left to #81 T.Vanderleest thrown to CMU38Similar
Q3 2:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
40.2%
(02:38) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete deep right to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CMU47 QB hurried by #40 J.Davis PENALTY CU Personal Foul (#22 K.Langston) 15 yards from CMU26 to CMU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
43.3%
(02:30) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short left to #24 V.Blue caught at CMU37, for 4 yards to the CMU45 (#43 J.Koetting)Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
43.2%
(01:54) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU46 (#24 J.Edgecomb)Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
40.6%
(01:15) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU50 (#65 D.Rodd; #0 J.Kelly)Similar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 1
50
+50
59.3%
Angel Flores 50 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:1851% → 56%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
49.1%
(00:25) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short left to #14 M.Fogler caught at CU32, for 11 yards to the CU36 (#26 M.McKenzie), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
47.0%
(14:59) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush right for 5 yards gain to the CU41 (#14 J.Taylor)Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
44.9%
(14:21) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CU46 (#40 B.McCalla; #6 H.Zirkle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
43.5%
(13:36) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CU47 (#6 H.Zirkle; #97 M.Van Fleet)Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
42.7%
(12:58) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short left to #14 M.Fogler thrown to CMU40Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+1
43.1%
(12:54) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #24 O.Faison caught at CU43, for 1 yard to the CU48 QB hurried by #6 H.Zirkle (#1 J.Douglas; #4 J.Jackson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
44.0%
(12:02) #37 T.Fontenot punt 17 yards to the CMU35, out of bounds at CMU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 4:2551% → 85%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
50.9%
(11:57) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #24 V.Blue caught at CMU30, for 8 yards to the CMU43 (#10 J.Toler), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+9
54.0%
(11:30) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush middle for 9 yards gain to the CU48 (#10 J.Toler), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
54.6%
(11:01) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 0 yards to the CU48 (#34 P.Dogui; #0 J.Kelly)Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
53.1%
(10:24) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete short right to #20 L.Lewis thrown to CU34 broken up by #65 D.Rodd QB hurried by #34 P.DoguiSimilar
Q4 10:09
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+1
47.7%
(10:20) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #20 L.Lewis caught at CU47, for 1 yard to the CU47 (#20 C.Jarrett; #23 R.Allan)Similar
Q4 9:23
4TH & 9
OPP 47
+18
45.0%
(09:30) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short middle to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. caught at CU40, for 18 yards to the CU29 QB hurried by #0 J.Kelly (#22 K.Langston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
53.1%
(08:46) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short middle to #24 V.Blue caught at CU19, for 17 yards to the CU12 (#23 R.Allan; #22 K.Langston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
52.4%
(08:04) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CU06 (#4 C.Magliacano)Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 0
+6
84.6%
Vaughn Blue 6 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 20INT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:4824% → 14%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
76.5%
(07:21) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short middle to #7 K.Phillips caught at CMU49, for 10 yards to the CMU49, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
75.8%
(06:43) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU47 (#92 J.Cherry; #35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
75.9%
(06:00) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short left to #7 K.Phillips thrown to CMU33 broken up by #14 J.TaylorSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+14
77.4%
(05:55) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short middle to #14 M.Fogler caught at CMU34, for 14 yards to the CMU33 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
81.0%
(05:17) Shotgun Colgate rush middle for 10 yards loss to the CMU43 fumbled by Colgate at CMU36 recovered by CU #21 D.Shaban at CMU43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 20
OPP 43
0
85.1%
(04:32) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short left to #7 K.Phillips thrown to CMU24 QB hurried by #32 J.ReinboldSimilar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 20
OPP 43
-23
86.2%
(04:27) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass intercepted by #19 D.Bryant Jr. at CMU24 #19 D.Bryant Jr. return 23 yards to the CMU47 (#70 B.Galindo) PENALTY CU Personal Foul (#21 D.Shaban) 15 yards from CMU47 to CU38, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3288% → 88%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
88.1%
(04:17) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CU34 (#44 J.Tedim)Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+2
88.8%
(03:34) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CU32 (#34 P.Dogui; #18 T.Price)Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
89.3%
(02:48) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete short right to #24 V.Blue thrown to CU35Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
87.9%
(02:45) #18 D.Duley punt 26 yards to the CU06 fair catch by #8 P.Way at CU06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLGDrive 22INT
14 plays · 53 yds · 2:2010% → 17%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+17
90.1%
(02:39) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 17 yards gain to the CU23 (#14 J.Taylor), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
90.1%
(02:06) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 0 yards to the CU23 (#11 X.White; #14 J.Taylor)Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
84.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short left to #21 D.Shaban caught at CU21, for 0 yards to the CU23 QB hurried by #5 K.Demma (#35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+25
86.5%
(01:23) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete deep left to #7 K.Phillips caught at CU48, for 25 yards to the CU48, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
81.1%
(01:17) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete deep right to #2 W.Moore thrown to CMU20 broken up by #4 J.Jackson QB hurried by #6 H.ZirkleSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
83.8%
(01:12) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #14 M.Fogler caught at CMU49, for 8 yards to the CMU44 QB hurried by #6 H.Zirkle (#35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
80.3%
(00:44) Shotgun #21 D.Shaban rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU41 (#11 X.White; #35 M.Hitchens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
80.2%
(00:43) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short right to #1 C.Montalvo thrown to CMU32Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+10
81.6%
(00:38) Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #2 W.Moore caught at CMU35, for 10 yards to the CMU31 (#26 M.McKenzie), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
74.5%
(00:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass incomplete short right to #2 W.Moore thrown to CMU24 QB hurried by #48 N.VanTimmerenSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+10
74.8%
(00:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass complete short right to #2 W.Moore caught at CMU25, for 7 yards to the CMU24 (#26 M.McKenzie) PENALTY CU Holding (#60 S.Haney) 10 yards from CMU31 to CMU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 20
OPP 41
-2
82.6%
(00:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #15 J.Stearney pass intercepted by #35 M.Hitchens at CMU26 broken up by #1 J.Douglas QB hurried by #1 J.Douglas #35 M.Hitchens return 2 yards to the CMU28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
95.8%
(00:02) Kneel down by Central Michigan at CMU27 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:29
Vaughn Blue 6 Yd Run (Caden VanHuis Kick)
+27.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:33
Timeout Central Michigan, clock 07:33
+23.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:33
Timeout Colgate, clock 07:33
-19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com