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TAR

Tarleton State 20 at Bowling Green 13

BGSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTAR aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTAR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:03 · (10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU24 (#6 S.Ellis; #3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 13Home team on offense−0.4Pregame prior+11.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:31: (02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #7 M.Willis caught at BGSU00, for 7 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31, 1ST DOWN #81 A.De La Poza kick attempt good (H: #83 C.Mullen, LS: #84 T.Smith) — TAR win probability +14.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:03: (01:04) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez) — BGSU win probability +20.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:45: (04:44) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 04:45 — BGSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:45: (10:45) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 10:45 — BGSU win probability +9.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:16: Timeout Tarleton State, clock 02:16 — TAR win probability +14.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: TAR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TAR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 11:44TAR 4th & 2 at BGSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    43.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:03TAR 4th & 1 at BGSU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    43.7%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:14TAR 4th & 2 at BGSU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−0.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:55BGSU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    50.7%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:23BGSU 4th & 9 at TAR 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:44TAR 4th & 6 at BGSU 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:14BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:54TAR 4th & 5 at TAR 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:45BGSU 4th & 9 at TAR 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    20.4%−8.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:16TAR 4th & 3 at BGSU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−3.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:52TAR 4th & 5 at BGSU 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−8.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:45BGSU 4th & 6 at TAR 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−8.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:49TAR 4th & 2 at BGSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    75.7%−4.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−3.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:10BGSU 4th & 1 at TAR 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−8.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−13.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TAR made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:39TAR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:31TAR Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:03BGSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:4963% → 63%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.6%
(14:47) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU20 (#43 C.Robinson)Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
62.6%
(14:16) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU21 (#9 L.Carson)Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+16
62.5%
(13:42) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU18, for 16 yards to the BGSU37 (#43 C.Robinson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
62.7%
(12:56) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BGSU48 fumbled by #1 A.Dendy at BGSU42 forced by #1 J.Aubert recovered by TSU #8 F.Adams at BGSU48, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 2TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:1038% → 40%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
62.3%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #4 B.Fleming thrown to BGSU45Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
62.3%
(12:48) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right thrown to BGSU40 QB hurried by #23 M.BradleySimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+8
62.4%
(12:40) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short middle to #3 T.Schmidt caught at BGSU48, for 8 yards to the BGSU40 (#6 S.Ellis; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
62.4%
(12:13) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #3 T.Schmidt caught at BGSU35, for 5 yards to the BGSU35 (#26 J.Andrews), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
61.9%
(11:27) Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU35 (#23 M.Bradley; #6 S.Ellis)Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
61.9%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete deep middle to #7 M.Willis thrown to BGSU11 broken up by #1 D.BraxtonSimilar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+9
62.1%
(10:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short middle to #1 T.Hines caught at BGSU36, for 9 yards to the BGSU26 (#9 P.EstoEsta)Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
62.2%
(10:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU24 (#6 S.Ellis; #3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
59.9%
(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete deep right to #3 T.Schmidt caught at BGSU00, for 24 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:39, 1ST DOWN #81 A.De La Poza kick attempt good (H: #83 C.Mullen, LS: #84 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0460% → 59%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.4%
(09:32) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 3 yards gain to the BGSU23 (#8 F.Adams; #43 C.Robinson)Similar
Q1 8:43
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
59.9%
(08:56) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush left for 3 yards gain to the BGSU26 (#17 K.Brown; #7 S.Cloud)Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+1
59.6%
(08:14) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #2 N.Amachree caught at BGSU25, for 1 yard to the BGSU27 (#5 S.Woods Jr.)Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
59.0%
(07:24) #30 R.Kingston punt 43 yards to the TSU30 fair catch by #3 T.Schmidt at TSU30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5641% → 43%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
58.9%
(07:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TSU31 (#6 S.Ellis; #88 S.Brown)Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+9
58.7%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 9 yards gain to the TSU40 (#3 D.Pringle; #88 S.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
57.9%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Hines thrown to TSU44 broken up by #9 P.EstoEsta PENALTY BGSU Holding (#9 P.EstoEsta) 10 yards from TSU40 to TSU50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
50
+6
57.5%
(05:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 6 yards gain to the BGSU44 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
57.2%
(05:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU42 (#58 K.Thomas)Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
57.1%
(04:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU42 (#3 D.Pringle; #5 E.George)Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
57.3%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU41 (#23 M.Bradley; #44 A.Odom), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 5:4059% → 55%
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
58.7%
(04:13) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU43 (#7 S.Cloud; #22 X.Potts)Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+3
58.5%
(03:29) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush left for 3 yards gain to the BGSU46 (#7 S.Cloud)Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+4
58.1%
(02:50) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush left for 4 yards gain to the BGSU50 (#32 R.Roberts; #8 F.Adams)Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 1
50
+2
57.3%
(02:03) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TSU48 (#1 J.Aubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
57.9%
(01:24) #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TSU46 (#16 D.Brown)Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
57.8%
(00:55) #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TSU42 (#43 C.Robinson; #1 J.Aubert) PENALTY TSU Offside 5 yards from TSU46 to TSU41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
57.7%
(00:30) #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TSU38 (#43 C.Robinson; #17 K.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
57.4%
(15:00) #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Dendy thrown to TSU36Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
57.3%
(14:52) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TSU35 (#92 M.Lawton)Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-2
57.0%
(14:14) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 2 yards loss to the TSU37 (#15 I.Johnson)Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
54.9%
(13:27) #30 R.Kingston punt 37 yards to the TSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 6FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:2946% → 49%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
54.4%
(13:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short middle to #1 T.Hines caught at TSU20, for 38 yards to the BGSU42 (#6 S.Ellis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TSU Holding (#4 B.Fleming) 10 yards from BGSU42 to TSU48Similar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
52.9%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #4 B.Fleming caught at BGSU48, for 13 yards to the BGSU39 (#0 K.Pascal), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
52.3%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BGSU32 (#0 K.Pascal; #1 D.Braxton)Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+10
51.8%
(12:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #3 T.Schmidt caught at BGSU22, for 10 yards to the BGSU22, out of bounds at BGSU22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.5%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #44 D.Joiner caught at BGSU22, for 0 yards to the BGSU22 (#0 K.Pascal), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+20
51.2%
(11:05) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short middle to #7 M.Willis caught at BGSU07, for 20 yards to the BGSU02 (#1 D.Braxton; #0 K.Pascal), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.9%
(10:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU01 (#1 D.Braxton; #0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.2%
(09:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #7 M.Willis thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+5
50.6%
(09:51) PENALTY TSU False Start (#53 T.Saunders II) 5 yards from BGSU01 to BGSU06. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
50.6%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short left to #7 M.Willis thrown to BGSU00Similar
Q2 9:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
50.7%
(09:44) #81 A.De La Poza field goal attempt from 23 yards GOOD (H: #83 C.Mullen, LS: #84 T.Smith), clock 09:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:2149% → 45%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.3%
(09:42) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU30 (#5 S.Woods Jr.)Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+20
49.3%
(09:08) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU42, for 20 yards to the BGSU50 (#5 S.Woods Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
50
0
50.2%
(08:28) #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU50 (#24 A.Rice)Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
50
-3
48.8%
(07:41) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 3 yards loss to the BGSU47 (#33 G.Culotta)Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+1
46.6%
(07:01) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU44, for 1 yard to the BGSU48 (#8 F.Adams; #13 N.Oliver)Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
45.4%
(06:20) #30 R.Kingston punt 51 yards to the TSU01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 8TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 3:2453% → 72%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+72
46.9%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush right for 72 yards gain to the BGSU27 (#1 D.Braxton; #2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
44.0%
(05:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #4 B.Fleming caught at BGSU26, for 2 yards to the BGSU25, out of bounds at BGSU25Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
43.5%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush left for 4 yards gain to the BGSU21 (#3 D.Pringle; #54 D.Garner)Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+7
43.5%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush right for 7 yards gain to the BGSU14 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
42.4%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BGSU07 (#44 A.Odom)Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
27.7%
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #7 M.Willis caught at BGSU00, for 7 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31, 1ST DOWN #81 A.De La Poza kick attempt good (H: #83 C.Mullen, LS: #84 T.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:1333% → 46%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
33.3%
(02:26) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush left for 4 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#33 G.Culotta)Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+23
33.3%
(01:58) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU31, for 23 yards to the TSU42 (#9 L.Carson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+29
34.5%
(01:32) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at TSU29, for 29 yards to the TSU13 (#1 J.Aubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.4%
(01:15) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 0 yards to the TSU13 (#24 A.Rice; #17 K.Brown) PENALTY TSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#7 S.Cloud) 7 yards from TSU13 to TSU06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
35.4%
(01:10) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TSU03 (#17 K.Brown)Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
46.4%
(01:04) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 10END OF HALF
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:1958% → 59%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
42.3%
(00:57) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Schmidt thrown to TSU15 QB hurried by #5 E.GeorgeSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+17
42.6%
(00:52) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #7 M.Willis caught at TSU22, for 17 yards to the TSU34 (#9 P.EstoEsta), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY BGSU Personal Foul (#0 K.Pascal) 15 yards from TSU34 to TSU49, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
40.3%
(00:47) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #3 T.Schmidt thrown to BGSU40Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
40.4%
(00:40) Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #1 T.Hines thrown to TSU50 PENALTY TSU Holding (#58 X.Parker) 10 yards from TSU49 to TSU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+9
41.4%
(00:34) Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush left for 9 yards gain to the TSU48 (#3 D.Pringle; #0 K.Pascal)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4259% → 60%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
40.9%
(14:40) Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush left for 4 yards gain to the TSU22 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
40.5%
(14:21) Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush right for 0 yards to the TSU22 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+1
40.9%
(13:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TSU23 (#88 S.Brown)Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
40.3%
(13:00) #83 C.Mullen punt 62 yards to the BGSU15, out of bounds at BGSU15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 7:5738% → 40%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
37.9%
(12:52) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at BGSU11, for 1 yard to the BGSU16 (#5 S.Woods Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
37.4%
(12:12) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the BGSU21 (#24 A.Rice)Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+5
36.1%
(11:26) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU25, for 5 yards to the BGSU26 (#24 A.Rice), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
37.1%
(10:47) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU29 (#7 S.Cloud; #22 X.Potts)Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
36.6%
(10:04) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU32 (#43 C.Robinson; #17 K.Brown)Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+9
35.1%
(09:21) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at BGSU41, for 9 yards to the BGSU41 (#24 A.Rice), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
36.8%
(08:41) #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 2 yards gain to the BGSU43 (#5 S.Woods Jr.; #7 S.Cloud)Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
36.4%
PENALTY BGSU False Start (#76 T.Andall) 5 yards from BGSU43 to BGSU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+4
34.6%
(07:33) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU42, for 4 yards to the BGSU42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+15
34.3%
(06:54) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep left to #47 K.White thrown to TSU30 broken up by #5 S.Woods Jr. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference (#5 S.Woods Jr.) 15 yards from BGSU42 to TSU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
37.0%
(06:49) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #2 N.Amachree caught at TSU30, for 19 yards to the TSU24 (#2 J.Postell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
36.6%
(06:10) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TSU25 (#33 G.Culotta; #15 I.Johnson)Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+2
36.1%
(05:32) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at TSU26, for 2 yards to the TSU23 (#2 J.Postell)Similar
Q3 4:49
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
33.6%
(04:51) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #5 B.Ridley thrown to TSU18 QB hurried by #43 C.RobinsonSimilar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
40.4%
(04:44) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 04:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 13DOWNS
6 plays · 47 yds · 2:1964% → 67%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+42
35.9%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete deep middle to #4 B.Fleming caught at BGSU38, for 42 yards to the BGSU38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
32.1%
(04:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush right for 0 yards to the BGSU38 (#26 J.Andrews), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
31.3%
(03:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 3 yards gain to the BGSU35 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+4
31.2%
(03:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush left for 4 yards gain to the BGSU31 (#88 S.Brown; #5 E.George)Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 3
OPP 31
-2
32.8%
(02:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson sacked for loss of 2 yards to the BGSU33 (#4 K.Kostus), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
38.5%
(02:16) Shotgun #2 N.Amachree rush left for 3 yards gain to the BGSU36 fumbled by #2 N.Amachree at BGSU35 forced by #32 R.Roberts recovered by TSU #10 K.Dickens at BGSU36, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 15FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0670% → 73%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
30.1%
(02:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 11 yards gain to the BGSU25 (#1 D.Braxton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
29.0%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #7 M.Willis caught at BGSU22, for 8 yards to the BGSU17 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q3 1:05
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
28.7%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush right for 3 yards gain to the BGSU14 (#1 D.Braxton; #3 D.Pringle), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
28.3%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush left for 7 yards gain to the BGSU07 (#44 A.Odom), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 7
-2
27.2%
(00:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 2 yards loss to the BGSU09 (#3 D.Pringle; #6 S.Ellis)Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
28.0%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete short right to #4 B.Fleming thrown to BGSU00 broken up by #0 K.PascalSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
26.7%
(14:52) #81 A.De La Poza field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #83 C.Mullen, LS: #84 T.Smith), clock 14:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:4727% → 33%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
26.6%
(14:45) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU35, for 17 yards to the TSU48 (#43 C.Robinson; #2 J.Postell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
27.8%
(14:22) #5 B.Ridley rush left for 1 yard gain to the TSU47 (#8 F.Adams)Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+9
28.2%
(13:43) #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #18 W.Sharp caught at TSU41, for 9 yards to the TSU38 (#1 J.Aubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
27.8%
(13:03) #1 A.Dendy rush right for 17 yards gain to the TSU21 (#24 A.Rice), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
29.4%
(12:27) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 1 yard loss to the TSU22 (#2 J.Postell)Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 11
OPP 22
0
27.3%
(11:48) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep right to #89 B.Cleaver thrown to TSU00Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 11
OPP 22
+10
24.7%
(11:44) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at TSU25, for 10 yards to the TSU12 (#32 R.Roberts)Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+5
23.8%
PENALTY BGSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from TSU12 to TSU17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
33.4%
(10:45) #12 T.Kenner field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez), clock 10:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 17DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:4674% → 79%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.9%
(10:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush right for 9 yards gain to the TSU34 (#0 K.Pascal)Similar
Q4 10:03
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
23.1%
(10:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass incomplete deep right to #7 M.Willis thrown to BGSU40 broken up by #1 D.Braxton PENALTY BGSU Pass Interference (#1 D.Braxton) 15 yards from TSU34 to TSU49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
20.0%
(09:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #44 D.Joiner caught at TSU49, for 0 yards to the TSU49, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
19.9%
PENALTY BGSU Offside (#88 S.Brown) 5 yards from TSU49 to BGSU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
19.2%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU46 (#9 P.EstoEsta; #3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
19.4%
(08:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short left to #3 T.Schmidt caught at BGSU43, for 3 yards to the BGSU43 (#2 J.Johnson)Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
21.5%
(07:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Gilkey rush middle for 0 yards to the BGSU43 (#3 D.Pringle; #0 K.Pascal), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:2931% → 22%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
30.5%
(07:47) #2 N.Amachree rush right for 1 yard gain to the BGSU44 (#1 J.Aubert; #2 J.Postell)Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
27.6%
(07:00) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU44, for 0 yards to the BGSU44 (#43 C.Robinson)Similar
Q4 5:56
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
24.3%
(06:11) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #18 W.Sharp caught at TSU41, for 15 yards to the TSU41, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
28.7%
(05:29) Shotgun #5 B.Ridley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TSU37 (#33 G.Culotta; #17 K.Brown)Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
29.7%
(04:48) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short left to #0 J.Scoby thrown to TSU35 QB hurried by #33 G.CulottaSimilar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+20
28.1%
(04:42) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete deep middle to #0 J.Scoby caught at TSU17, for 20 yards to the TSU17 (#2 J.Postell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
30.9%
(03:58) #4 K.Baldwin rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TSU13 (#32 R.Roberts)Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
30.8%
(03:37) #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 5 yards gain to the TSU08 (#24 A.Rice)Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
28.4%
(03:04) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the TSU08 (#14 S.Teuhema; #5 S.Woods Jr.)Similar
Q4 2:10
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
21.8%
(02:12) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 0 yards to the TSU08 (#32 R.Roberts; #1 J.Aubert), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TARDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 92 yds · 0:2189% → 95%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+83
10.7%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush left for 83 yards gain to the BGSU09 (#2 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
8.4%
(01:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU08 (#3 D.Pringle)Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
4.9%
(01:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BGSU07 (#3 D.Pringle; #5 E.George)Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
4.7%
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 T.Hines rush middle for 7 yards gain to the BGSU00 fumbled by #1 T.Hines at BGSU07 forced by #4 K.Kostus recovered by BGSU #2 J.Johnson at BGSU00, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20END OF GAME
11 plays · 72 yds · 0:5612% → 12%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+31
11.8%
(01:20) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete deep middle to #18 W.Sharp caught at BGSU30, for 31 yards to the BGSU31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
11.3%
(00:53) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #0 J.Scoby caught at BGSU40, for 9 yards to the BGSU40, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+10
13.3%
(00:31) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin rush right for 10 yards gain to the BGSU50 (Tarleton St.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
50
+8
13.5%
(00:24) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #8 E.Jacon-Duffy caught at TSU45, for 8 yards to the TSU42 (#5 S.Woods Jr.)Similar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+6
17.7%
(00:24) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short right to #5 B.Ridley caught at TSU37, for 6 yards to the TSU36 (#24 A.Rice), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
12.2%
(00:21) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short middle to #5 B.Ridley caught at TSU30, for 13 yards to the TSU23 lateral to #2 N.Amachree for 8 yards gain to the TSU23, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
17.1%
(00:09) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete deep left to #18 W.Sharp thrown to TSU00 broken up by #8 F.AdamsSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
14.3%
(00:05) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass incomplete short right to #9 N.Sowell thrown to TSU08 broken up by #24 A.RiceSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
12.2%
(00:01) Shotgun #17 J.Kastantin pass complete short left to #5 B.Ridley caught at TSU08, for 15 yards to the TSU08 (#1 J.Aubert; #13 N.Oliver), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - ""Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
(01:04) Shotgun #1 A.Dendy rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:03 #12 T.Kenner kick attempt good (H: #30 R.Kingston, LS: #56 Q.Jimenez)
+20.3
TD · Q2 2:31
(02:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 K.Anderson pass complete short right to #7 M.Willis caught at BGSU00, for 7 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:31, 1ST DOWN #81 A.De La Poza kick attempt good (H: #83 C.Mullen, LS: #84 T.Smith)
-14.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:16
Timeout Tarleton State, clock 02:16
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com