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USA

South Alabama 24 at Tulane 28

TULN
2026 · Week 2 · Sep 12, 2026 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:02 · (00:02) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep left to #5 A.Brown-Stephens thrown to USA04, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Pregame prior+0.0Home team on offense+24.0Garbage-time factor+17.0Score differential+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:55: (01:56) #6 J.Daniels rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55 #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo) — TULN win probability +10.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:17: (12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #1 A.Eager caught at TLN04, for 43 yards to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:17, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner) — USA win probability +14.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:53: (05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 80 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:53, 1ST DOWN #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo) — TULN win probability +17.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:49: (11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at TLN09, for 17 yards to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:49, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner) — USA win probability +25.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:17: (01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short left to #2 D.Hill caught at USA00, for 14 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17, 1ST DOWN #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo) — TULN win probability +51.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 3 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:03TULN 4th & 10 at USA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−<0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:59USA 4th & 7 at TULN 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.2%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:03USA 4th & 9 at TULN 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:03TULN 4th & 4 at USA 27, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    70.1%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:30USA 4th & 2 at TULN 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    31.6%−0.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.9%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:41TULN 4th & 6 at USA 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:31USA 4th & 1 at midfield, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−2.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:47TULN 4th & 18 at TULN 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−4.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:11USA 4th & 7 at TULN 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−1.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−11.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:28TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:39USA 4th & 24 at USA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−11.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:53USA 4th & 7 at USA 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.5%−4.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:02TULN 4th & 26 at USA 44, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.0%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%
    27% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 1:31USA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:57TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:55TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:17USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:53TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:49USA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:17TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:4568% → 68%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
68.1%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short middle to #16 G.Mmahat caught at TLN35, for 19 yards to the TLN44 (#14 C.Blaylock), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
68.1%
(14:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USA49 (#12 J.Moson)Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
68.2%
(14:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete short right to #16 G.Mmahat thrown to USA45Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+8
68.1%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short middle to #16 G.Mmahat caught at USA46, for 8 yards to the USA41 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
68.2%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Daniels rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USA42 (#41 T.Carter; #18 M.Lewis)Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 11
OPP 42
0
68.1%
(13:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep left to #8 B.Richardson thrown to USA20Similar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+1
68.0%
(13:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short left to #19 D.Johnson caught at USA41, for 1 yard to the USA41 (#11 P.Shattuck) PENALTY TLN Holding declinedSimilar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
67.9%
(13:09) #34 W.Hudlow punt 26 yards to the USA15 fair catch by #14 C.Blaylock at USA15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 4:5832% → 33%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
67.9%
(13:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #9 R.Gibbs thrown to USA32 PENALTY USA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#64 J.Siler) 5 yards from USA15 to USA10. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 12:48
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+1
67.9%
(12:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA11 (#7 K.Adams III; #12 A.Rogers)Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+11
67.8%
(12:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at USA19, for 11 yards to the USA22 (#2 D.Agu)Similar
Q1 11:22
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+27
67.8%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 27 yards gain to the USA49 (#12 A.Rogers), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
67.0%
(10:47) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #6 M.Woods caught at TLN45, for 12 yards to the TLN39 (#7 K.Adams III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
66.8%
(10:28) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 3 yards gain to the TLN36 (#42 M.Williams)Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
66.6%
(09:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete deep right to #5 B.Jenkins thrown to TLN00Similar
Q1 8:59
4TH & 7
OPP 36
+13
66.8%
(09:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at TLN22, for 13 yards to the TLN23 (#13 K.Banks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
66.0%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TLN22 (#2 D.Agu)Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 22
0
65.9%
(08:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Eager thrown to TLN14Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
66.2%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #2 J.Jones-Thomas thrown to TLN10Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+40
66.6%
(08:07) #35 D.Little field goal attempt from 40 yards GOOD (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner), clock 08:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:4767% → 66%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
66.5%
(07:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short right to #2 D.Hill caught at TLN19, for 5 yards to the TLN21 (#12 J.Moson)Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
66.4%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 M.Turner rush middle for 0 yards to the TLN21 (#2 J.Henderson)Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+11
65.8%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short middle to #2 D.Hill caught at TLN32, for 11 yards to the TLN32 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
66.2%
(06:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TLN35 (#11 P.Shattuck)Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+32
65.9%
(05:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 32 yards gain to the USA33 (#48 J.Williams), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
67.0%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete short right to #12 J.Lucas thrown to USA35 broken up by #25 T.HenrySimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
67.0%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 M.Turner rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USA32 (#56 S.Johnson)Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+5
66.4%
(04:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short right to #13 T.Thompson caught at USA27, for 5 yards to the USA27 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q1 4:03
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
65.8%
(04:07) #96 J.Courville field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo), clock 04:03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:1535% → 42%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+19
65.2%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #5 B.Jenkins caught at USA46, for 19 yards to the USA46 (#7 K.Adams III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
64.3%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA49 (#2 D.Agu; #7 K.Adams III)Similar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+6
64.2%
(02:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TLN45 (#2 D.Agu; #1 J.Tchienchou)Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
63.4%
(02:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TLN43 (#99 J.Lewis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
63.2%
(02:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #0 P.Martin caught at TLN42, for 27 yards to the TLN16 (#11 D.Hughes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
58.2%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 16 yards gain to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:31, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:2859% → 66%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
58.8%
(01:31) Shotgun #6 J.Daniels rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TLN36 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+61
58.5%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete deep middle to #2 D.Hill caught at USA40, for 61 yards to the USA03 (#1 D.Moore), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
59.8%
(00:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short left to #19 D.Johnson caught at USA02, for 1 yard to the USA02 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
65.7%
(14:59) #6 J.Daniels rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:57 #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:1937% → 38%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
63.3%
(14:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USA30 (#3 T.Smith; #2 D.Agu) PENALTY TLN Face Mask (#2 D.Agu) 15 yards from USA30 to USA45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
62.0%
(14:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #21 T.Dunbar caught at USA41, for 17 yards to the TLN38 (#1 J.Tchienchou), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
61.5%
(13:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TLN37 (#2 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
61.3%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #5 B.Jenkins thrown to TLN18Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+7
61.5%
(13:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TLN30 (#2 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 2
OPP 30
-5
62.0%
(12:36) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 5 yards loss to the TLN35 (#42 M.Williams), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4963% → 62%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
62.8%
(12:30) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TLN29 (#56 S.Johnson), fumble by #3 K.Semonza recovered by TLN #76 G.Perry at TLN27 #76 G.Perry return 2 yards to the TLN29 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 16
OWN 29
0
61.6%
(10:33) Shotgun #21 D.Dugar Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the TLN29 (#18 M.Lewis; #56 S.Johnson)Similar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+21
60.7%
(10:23) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete deep left to #5 A.Brown-Stephens caught at USA50, for 21 yards to the TLN50 (#14 C.Blaylock; #8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
50
0
64.0%
(10:04) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep right to #5 A.Brown-Stephens thrown to USA20 broken up by #2 J.HendersonSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
50
+4
63.3%
(09:55) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA46 (#25 T.Henry)Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
63.1%
(09:49) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete short left to #13 T.Thompson thrown to USA42 broken up by #8 D.YoungSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
61.9%
(09:41) #34 W.Hudlow punt 46 yards to the USA00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 4:0439% → 43%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
61.3%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush left for 2 yards gain to the USA22 (#42 M.Williams; #96 G.Guidry)Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
61.3%
(09:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at USA28, for 9 yards to the USA31 (#21 M.Stevenson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
59.2%
(08:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at USA33, for 7 yards to the USA38 (#5 E.Shine), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+3
57.9%
(07:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA41 (#96 G.Guidry; #1 J.Tchienchou), 1ST DOWN. #42 M.Williams injured on the playSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.6%
(07:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush right for 4 yards gain to the USA45 (#70 K.Hamilton; #96 G.Guidry)Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
57.5%
(07:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush left for 3 yards gain to the USA48 (#70 K.Hamilton; #2 D.Agu)Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
57.1%
(06:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush right for 2 yards gain to the USA50 (#2 D.Agu; #45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 1
50
0
57.5%
(05:42) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 45 yards to the TLN05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 3:2758% → 72%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
57.6%
(05:30) No Huddle #6 J.Daniels rush middle for 0 yards to the TLN05 (#18 M.Lewis)Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+8
57.4%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 8 yards gain to the TLN13 (#8 D.Young)Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+54
56.8%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush middle for 54 yards gain to the USA33 (#8 D.Young), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
62.2%
(03:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza rush middle for 0 yards to the USA33 (#18 M.Lewis)Similar
Q2 2:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
61.7%
(02:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short middle to #8 B.Richardson caught at USA19, for 14 yards to the USA19 (#12 J.Moson), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
61.7%
(02:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush middle for 16 yards gain to the USA03 (#1 D.Moore), 1ST DOWN. #78 R.Baker injured on the playSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.0%
(01:56) #6 J.Daniels rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:55 #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10END OF HALF
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:3732% → 31%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.6%
(01:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush right for 0 yards to the USA25 (#70 K.Hamilton; #40 W.Roberts Jr.)Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.8%
(01:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 9 yards gain to the USA34 (#1 J.Tchienchou; #12 A.Rogers)Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
66.6%
(00:48) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA36 (#12 A.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
66.4%
(00:21) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #2 J.Jones-Thomas caught at USA43, for 9 yards to the USA45 (#2 D.Agu; #42 M.Williams)Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+11
65.7%
(00:16) Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #9 R.Gibbs thrown to USA50 PENALTY USA Holding (#68 R.Osei-Wusu) 11 yard from USA45 to USA34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+4
69.1%
(00:10) Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USA38 (#40 W.Roberts Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:3531% → 48%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
68.6%
(14:57) Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USA11 (#6 J.Sims)Similar
Q3 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
68.6%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #0 P.Martin caught at USA08, for 4 yards to the USA15 (#12 A.Rogers; #6 J.Sims)Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+24
69.4%
(13:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #2 J.Jones-Thomas caught at USA20, for 24 yards to the USA39 (#1 J.Tchienchou), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
66.6%
(13:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 18 yards gain to the TLN43 (#2 D.Agu; #7 K.Adams III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
51.9%
(12:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete deep left to #1 A.Eager caught at TLN04, for 43 yards to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:17, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 2:2256% → 52%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
55.7%
(12:16) Shotgun #0 M.Turner rush middle for 3 yards loss to the TLN22 (#14 C.Blaylock)Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
55.1%
PENALTY TLN False Start (#80 V.Bolyard) 5 yards from TLN22 to TLN17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+5
55.0%
PENALTY TLN False Start (#80 V.Bolyard) 5 yards from TLN17 to TLN12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+3
54.8%
(11:09) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short left to #13 T.Thompson caught at TLN15, for 3 yards to the TLN15 (#25 T.Henry)Similar
Q3 10:22
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+2
53.1%
(10:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TLN17 (#11 P.Shattuck)Similar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
52.2%
(09:52) #34 W.Hudlow punt 55 yards to the USA28 fair catch by #2 J.Jones-Thomas at USA28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13MISSED FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 4:2648% → 50%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
52.3%
(09:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USA35 (#7 K.Adams III)Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
51.0%
(09:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #1 A.Eager thrown to TLN49 broken up by #21 M.Stevenson PENALTY USA Ineligible Downfield on Pass (#64 J.Siler) 5 yards from USA35 to USA30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
52.1%
(09:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Jones-Thomas thrown to USA43 broken up by #13 K.BanksSimilar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+10
53.5%
(09:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 10 yards gain to the USA40 (#42 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
49.7%
(08:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USA42 (#2 D.Agu; #51 R.Sterling)Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
49.5%
(08:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #2 J.Jones-Thomas thrown to USA49 broken up by #1 J.Tchienchou. #27 C.Green injured on the playSimilar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+21
50.8%
(08:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #1 A.Eager caught at TLN40, for 21 yards to the TLN37 (#21 M.Stevenson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
48.2%
(07:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at TLN24, for 18 yards to the TLN19 (#5 E.Shine), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
46.2%
(06:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #5 B.Jenkins thrown to TLN02Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+4
46.5%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TLN15 (#45 E.Smith IV)Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-1
47.4%
(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TLN16 (#42 M.Williams)Similar
Q3 5:11
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
49.8%
(05:14) #35 D.Little field goal attempt from 34 yards NO GOOD (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner), clock 05:11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:1353% → 71%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
53.1%
(05:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep left to #2 D.Hill thrown to TLN44Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+80
70.9%
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 80 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:53, 1ST DOWN #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 7:5831% → 63%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
69.2%
(04:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #0 P.Martin caught at USA26, for 5 yards to the USA35 (#48 J.Garner), out of bounds PENALTY USA Holding (#83 E.Hunter) 10 yards from USA30 to USA20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 4:04
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+5
69.9%
(04:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at USA25, for 5 yards to the USA25 (#1 J.Tchienchou)Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+20
70.2%
(03:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #5 B.Jenkins caught at USA44, for 20 yards to the USA45, out of bounds at USA45, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.6%
(02:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 0 yards to the USA45 (#1 J.Tchienchou)Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
67.7%
(02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #6 M.Woods caught at TLN42, for 13 yards to the TLN42 (#27 C.Green), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
65.1%
(01:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TLN35 (#5 E.Shine; #2 D.Agu)Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-2
63.3%
(00:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short left to #0 P.Martin caught at TLN41, for 2 yards loss to the TLN37 (#27 C.Green)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+7
65.7%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #21 T.Dunbar rush right for 7 yards gain to the TLN30 (#7 K.Adams III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
63.5%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush left for 5 yards gain to the TLN25 (#40 W.Roberts Jr.)Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
63.0%
(13:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TLN22 (#2 D.Agu; #48 J.Garner). #2 D.Agu injured on the playSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+3
64.8%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TLN19 (#42 M.Williams; #26 D.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
62.7%
(12:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TLN17 (#48 J.Garner)Similar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
37.0%
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at TLN09, for 17 yards to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:49, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0647% → 41%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
47.1%
(11:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TLN21 (#18 M.Lewis). #24 D.Darby injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
46.7%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TLN25 (#1 D.Moore)Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
44.6%
(10:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep right to #5 A.Brown-Stephens thrown to USA34 broken up by #2 J.HendersonSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
40.5%
(10:40) #34 W.Hudlow punt 57 yards to the USA18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 7 yds · 5:4361% → 66%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
39.0%
(10:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush left for 5 yards gain to the USA23 (#7 K.Adams III)Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+10
37.8%
(09:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Phillips rush left for 2 yards gain to the USA25 (#48 J.Garner), out of bounds PENALTY USA Holding (#69 K.Jerido) 10 yards from USA23 to USA13. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+6
38.6%
(09:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short middle to #9 R.Gibbs caught at USA18, for 6 yards to the USA19 (#42 M.Williams; #7 K.Adams III)Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+10
40.3%
(08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 10 yards gain to the USA29 (#4 C.Rodgers), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (08:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport rush middle for 13 yards gain to the USA32 fumbled by #4 B.Davenport at USA30 forced by #2 D.Agu recovered by TLN #8 J.Moore at USA32 #8 J.Moore return 32 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30)Similar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
36.8%
(08:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush left for 10 yards gain to the USA39 (#51 R.Sterling; #1 J.Tchienchou), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
32.7%
(07:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 P.Martin rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USA38 (#51 R.Sterling)Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 11
OWN 38
-4
33.0%
(06:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport sacked for loss of 8 yards to the USA30 (#51 R.Sterling, #70 K.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 19
OWN 30
+5
33.4%
PENALTY USA False Start (#72 E.Hubbard) 5 yards from USA30 to USA25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 24
OWN 25
0
33.1%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #3 K.Phillips caught at USA20, for 0 yards to the USA25, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 4:39
4TH & 24
OWN 25
0
33.6%
(04:48) #40 A.Pulkkinen punt 53 yards to the TLN22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:1540% → 94%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
39.9%
(04:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush left for 8 yards gain to the TLN30, out of bounds at TLN30Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+1
43.1%
(04:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush left for 1 yard gain to the TLN31 (#48 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+13
40.0%
(03:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short middle to #16 G.Mmahat caught at TLN36, for 13 yards to the TLN44 (#11 P.Shattuck), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
39.4%
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete deep right to #84 C.Semonza caught at USA22, for 36 yards to the USA20 (#8 D.Young), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
44.8%
(02:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Daniels rush left for 3 yards gain to the USA17 (#41 T.Carter; #48 J.Williams)Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+3
42.6%
(01:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 3 yards gain to the USA14 (#25 T.Henry)Similar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
94.3%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short left to #2 D.Hill caught at USA00, for 14 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17, 1ST DOWN #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1818% → 16%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.0%
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short left to #5 B.Jenkins thrown to USA42Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.2%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #0 P.Martin caught at USA20, for 3 yards to the USA28 (#7 K.Adams III), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
83.1%
(01:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Eager thrown to USA45Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
83.6%
(00:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass incomplete short middle to #5 B.Jenkins thrown to USA45 broken up by #5 E.Shine, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · -16 yds · 0:4895% → 95%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
95.0%
(00:51) Kneel down by #3 K.Semonza at USA31 for loss of 3 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-4
95.6%
(00:49) Kneel down by #3 K.Semonza at USA35 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 17
OPP 35
-4
95.3%
(00:46) Kneel down by #3 K.Semonza at USA39 for loss of 4 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 21
OPP 39
+5
95.0%
PENALTY TLN Delay Of Game 5 yards from USA39 to USA44. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:02
4TH & 26
OPP 44
0
95.2%
(00:02) Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass incomplete deep left to #5 A.Brown-Stephens thrown to USA04, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:17
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 K.Semonza pass complete short left to #2 D.Hill caught at USA00, for 14 yards to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:17, 1ST DOWN #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)
+51.6
TD · Q4 11:49
(11:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 B.Davenport pass complete short right to #5 B.Jenkins caught at TLN09, for 17 yards to the TLN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:49, 1ST DOWN #35 D.Little kick attempt good (H: #40 A.Pulkkinen, LS: #44 B.Turner)
-25.7
TD · Q3 4:53
(05:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Lucas rush right for 80 yards gain to the USA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:53, 1ST DOWN #96 J.Courville kick attempt good (H: #34 W.Hudlow, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)
+17.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com