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NMSU

New Mexico State 17 at Florida State 34

FSU
2026 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2026 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadNMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreNMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:21 · (09:29) #36 D.Hughes punt 41 yards to the NMS22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 54Pregame prior+38.4Home team on offense+1.6Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:49: (10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete deep middle to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at FSU00, for 33 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) PENALTY #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution declined — NMSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 7%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: (00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS00, for 4 yards to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers) — FSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 7:36: (07:36) #17 I.Uvaydov field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 07:36 — NMSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:09: (02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:09 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers) — FSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:42: TK King 34 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick) — NMSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: NMSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NMSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 3:05FSU 4th & 21 at NMSU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:38NMSU 4th & 11 at NMSU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:21FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:25NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:25NMSU 4th & 10 at NMSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:51FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:36NMSU 4th & 13 at FSU 21, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:29FSU 4th & 4 at NMSU 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−1.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:49NMSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:41FSU 4th & 9 at NMSU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:55NMSU 4th & 6 at NMSU 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:18NMSU 4th & 1 at NMSU 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:28NMSU 4th & 3 at NMSU 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NMSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:15FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:49NMSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:09FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:42NMSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NMSUDrive 1INT
14 plays · 51 yds · 6:403% → 4%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.3%
(14:58) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 1 yard gain to the NMS26 (#3 M.Desir)Similar
Q1 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
97.2%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #2 J.Jones caught at NMS28, for 9 yards to the NMS35 (#9 O.Graham Jr.; #10 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.1%
(13:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMS39 (#15 R.Kennedy; #7 A.Barker)Similar
Q1 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
97.0%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #1 T.King caught at NMS43, for 4 yards to the NMS43, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
96.9%
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush left for 6 yards gain to the NMS49 (#6 J.Rawls), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.8%
(12:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #7 T.Pride caught at NMS43, for 3 yards to the FSU48 (#9 O.Graham Jr.)Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+1
96.7%
(11:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 1 yard gain to the FSU47 (#3 M.Desir)Similar
Q1 10:46
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+11
96.6%
(10:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #11 A.Williams III caught at FSU40, for 11 yards to the FSU36 (#10 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.4%
(10:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU36 (#1 D.Desir)Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
96.3%
(09:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.King thrown to FSU00 broken up by #0 Q.JonesSimilar
Q1 9:25
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+11
96.3%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #1 T.King caught at FSU25, for 11 yards to the FSU25 (#7 A.Barker), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
96.1%
(08:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #1 T.King caught at FSU24, for 1 yard to the FSU24 (#7 A.Barker)Similar
Q1 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
96.0%
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass intercepted by #0 Q.Jones at FSU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:5996% → 95%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.1%
(08:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU25, for 10 yards to the FSU30 (#34 Z.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
96.0%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 10 yards gain to the FSU40 (#13 K.Roberts-Day), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
96.0%
(07:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU43 (#34 Z.Davis)Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-1
96.0%
(06:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 1 yard loss to the FSU42 (#16 G.Peterson; #8 B.Vislisel)Similar
Q1 5:59
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+44
95.7%
(06:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS25, for 44 yards to the NMS14 (#26 J.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
95.8%
(05:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS15, for 4 yards to the NMS10 (#0 L.Smith)Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+15
95.7%
(04:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 10 yards gain to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 04:55 PENALTY FSU Tripping (#65 A.Otto) 15 yards from NMS10 to NMS25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 21
OPP 25
+14
95.5%
(04:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS26, for 14 yards to the NMS11 (#5 N.Session), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+5
95.4%
PENALTY FSU False Start (#77 X.Chaplin) 5 yards from NMS11 to NMS16. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 12
OPP 16
-5
95.3%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels sacked for loss of 9 yards to the NMS25 (#16 G.Peterson, #14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q1 3:05
4TH & 21
OPP 25
+43
95.1%
(03:07) #39 G.Panikowski field goal attempt from 43 yards GOOD (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers), clock 03:05 PENALTY NMS Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:225% → 5%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.3%
(03:05) Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS27 (#7 A.Barker; #55 K.Wynn)Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
95.0%
(02:28) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.King thrown to FSU45Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
95.1%
PENALTY NMS False Start (#69 J.Williams) 5 yards from NMS27 to NMS22. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+2
95.1%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #86 J.Lydiatt caught at NMS23, for 2 yards to the NMS24 (#10 C.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
95.1%
(01:40) #91 B.Richter punt 36 yards to the FSU40 fair catch by #7 J.Lopez at FSU40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:1695% → 96%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
94.9%
(01:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FSU43 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+13
94.9%
(01:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush left for 13 yards gain to the NMS44 (#5 N.Session), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
94.9%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Robinson thrown to NMS41 QB hurried by #8 B.VisliselSimilar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+35
94.8%
(00:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS45, for 35 yards to the NMS09 (#4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.8%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NMS04 (#13 K.Roberts-Day)Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.8%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the NMS04 (#16 G.Peterson; #44 E.Tayou)Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.5%
(14:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 4 yards gain to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:15 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:065% → 7%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
(14:13) Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #15 J.Thomas caught at NMS25, for 0 yards to the NMS25 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.3%
(13:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Jones thrown to NMS20 broken up by #13 D.DiggsSimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
95.4%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at NMS43, for 20 yards to the NMS45 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
95.0%
(12:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS47 (#20 B.Nichelson)Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
94.8%
(12:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short middle to #5 M.Libman thrown to FSU48Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+19
94.8%
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #1 T.King caught at FSU34, for 19 yards to the FSU34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
94.3%
(11:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FSU33 (#3 M.Desir; #8 D.McCray)Similar
Q2 10:53
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
94.3%
(10:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short middle to #7 T.Pride thrown to FSU28 broken up by #6 J.RawlsSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+33
92.8%
(10:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete deep middle to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at FSU00, for 33 yards to the FSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:49, 1ST DOWN #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) PENALTY #17 I.Uvaydov kick attempt good (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage) PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0393% → 93%
Q2 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
93.1%
(10:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #8 M.Danzy caught at FSU26, for 2 yards to the FSU33 (#1 J.Charles)Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
93.0%
(10:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FSU37 (#98 J.Gwan)Similar
Q2 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
92.9%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FSU42 broken up by #1 J.CharlesSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
92.5%
(09:29) #36 D.Hughes punt 41 yards to the NMS22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:527% → 7%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
92.7%
(09:19) Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short right to #1 T.King thrown to NMS30 QB hurried by #13 D.DiggsSimilar
Q2 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.7%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #8 D.Stanley caught at NMS25, for 4 yards to the NMS26 (#14 M.Jones)Similar
Q2 8:34
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
92.7%
(08:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.King thrown to FSU42Similar
Q2 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
92.8%
(08:31) #91 B.Richter punt 50 yards to the FSU24 fair catch by #7 J.Lopez at FSU24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:4392% → 92%
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
92.4%
(08:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 0 yards to the FSU24 (#25 J.Sandiford)Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+24
92.4%
(07:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete deep left to #0 D.Robinson caught at FSU48, for 24 yards to the FSU48, out of bounds at FSU48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
92.8%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NMS45 (#2 J.Gillespie)Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+3
92.8%
(06:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 3 yards gain to the NMS42 (#0 L.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
92.6%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS40 (#10 C.Barron)Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
92.4%
(05:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass intercepted by #5 N.Session at NMS32, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 2:049% → 9%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
91.3%
(05:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush right for 3 yards gain to the NMS35 (#11 C.Richard Jr.; #3 M.Desir)Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-10
91.0%
(04:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden sacked for loss of 10 yards to the NMS25 (#28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q2 3:57
3RD & 17
OWN 25
+7
91.4%
(04:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #88 C.Su'esu'e caught at NMS25, for 7 yards to the NMS32 (#0 Q.Jones; #7 A.Barker)Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
91.3%
(03:31) #91 B.Richter punt 26 yards to the FSU42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:4391% → 94%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
91.4%
(03:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush left for 5 yards gain to the FSU47 (#99 R.Baller)Similar
Q2 2:51
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+20
91.3%
(02:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush right for 20 yards gain to the NMS33 (#10 C.Barron), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.5%
(02:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to #0 D.Robinson thrown to NMS00 PENALTY NMS Pass Interference (#2 J.Gillespie) 15 yards from NMS33 to NMS18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
91.4%
(02:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #15 J.Boggs thrown to NMS00 QB hurried by #34 Z.DavisSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
91.4%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMS15 (#25 J.Sandiford)Similar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+7
90.8%
(01:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #32 O.Kromah caught at NMS20, for 7 yards to the NMS08 (#5 N.Session; #97 H.Davis III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
91.1%
(01:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMS04 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
90.9%
(00:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #18 L.Thomas thrown to NMS00 QB hurried by #44 E.TayouSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
93.6%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS00, for 4 yards to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:207% → 7%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.1%
(00:36) Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NMS30 (#7 A.Barker; #28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
92.7%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMS31 (#20 B.Nichelson; #7 A.Barker)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5094% → 93%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
93.5%
(14:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush right for 5 yards gain to the FSU27 (#14 S.Aupiu; #16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+8
93.4%
(14:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush left for 8 yards gain to the FSU35 (#4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
93.4%
(13:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at FSU31, for 1 yard to the FSU36 (#26 J.Campbell)Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
93.6%
(13:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to #0 D.Robinson thrown to FSU48 broken up by #5 N.SessionSimilar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
93.3%
(13:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right to #15 J.Boggs thrown to FSU40Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
92.8%
(13:02) #36 D.Hughes punt 53 yards to the NMS11, out of bounds at NMS11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 13FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:057% → 10%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
93.2%
(12:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #1 T.King caught at NMS20, for 9 yards to the NMS20, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+5
92.9%
(12:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NMS25 (#10 C.Jones; #14 M.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
(11:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #1 T.King caught at NMS25, for 0 yards to the NMS25 (#10 C.Jones)Similar
Q3 10:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
92.8%
(10:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at NMS40, for 15 yards to the NMS40, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
92.2%
(10:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 J.Brown rush right for 12 yards gain to the FSU48 (#6 J.Rawls; #14 M.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
91.9%
PENALTY NMS False Start (#66 C.Pyfrom) 5 yards from FSU48 to NMS47. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+9
92.3%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush left for 9 yards gain to the FSU44 (#14 M.Jones; #28 M.Gbayor)Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
91.6%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #10 L.Ravare thrown to FSU12 broken up by #12 N.ChandlerSimilar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+11
91.8%
(08:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #7 T.Pride caught at FSU33, for 11 yards to the FSU33 (#6 J.Rawls), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#6 J.Rawls) 15 yards from FSU33 to FSU18, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
90.9%
(08:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 T.Washington Jr. pass incomplete short right to #11 A.Williams III thrown to FSU00Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 23
OPP 31
+10
92.2%
(08:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 10 yards gain to the FSU21 (#26 R.Knight III; #10 C.Jones)Similar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 13
OPP 21
+38
90.0%
(07:36) #17 I.Uvaydov field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #91 B.Richter, LS: #41 B.Sage), clock 07:36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:1392% → 97%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.3%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short left to #3 S.Singleton Jr. thrown to FSU49 QB hurried by #8 B.VisliselSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
92.1%
(07:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete deep left to #15 J.Boggs thrown to NMS10Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+6
91.4%
(07:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NMS45 (#8 B.Vislisel; #6 T.Gethers)Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+16
91.2%
(06:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #0 D.Robinson caught at NMS35, for 16 yards to the NMS29 (#4 D.Peters), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
92.3%
(06:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 4 yards gain to the NMS25, out of bounds at NMS25Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+9
92.2%
(05:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NMS16 (#6 T.Gethers; #0 L.Smith), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
92.1%
(05:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #8 M.Danzy caught at NMS19, for 1 yard to the NMS15 (#5 N.Session; #14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+5
91.9%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NMS10 (#34 Z.Davis; #10 C.Barron)Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+4
91.2%
(04:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMS06 (#25 J.Sandiford; #10 C.Barron), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
91.6%
(03:24) #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMS03 (#15 O.Okeke; #90 J.Downey)Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
91.5%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMS02 (#16 G.Peterson; #14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q3 2:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.6%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:09 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:155% → 5%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
(02:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short left to #8 D.Stanley thrown to NMS28Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.0%
(02:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS27 (#7 A.Barker)Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
95.0%
(01:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #7 T.Pride caught at NMS37, for 10 yards to the NMS37 (#6 J.Rawls), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
94.4%
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at NMS35, for 2 yards to the NMS39 (#12 N.Chandler)Similar
Q3 0:07
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-1
94.7%
(00:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush left for 1 yard loss to the NMS38 (#8 D.McCray)Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
95.0%
(15:00) Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford thrown to FSU32Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
95.4%
(14:51) #91 B.Richter punt 49 yards to the FSU13 fair catch by #7 J.Lopez at FSU13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16FG
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:5396% → 98%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+52
96.3%
(14:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 52 yards gain to the NMS35 (#4 D.Peters), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
96.8%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush right for 2 yards gain to the NMS33 (#98 J.Gwan; #16 G.Peterson)Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+9
96.8%
(13:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush left for 9 yards gain to the NMS24 (#20 D.Cloyd; #99 R.Baller), 1ST DOWN. #26 J.Campbell injured on the playSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.8%
(12:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #5 Q.Wisner caught at NMS30, for 5 yards loss to the NMS29 (#14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+11
96.9%
(12:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #18 L.Thomas caught at NMS23, for 11 yards to the NMS18 (#5 N.Session)Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
96.9%
(11:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short left to #5 Q.Wisner caught at NMS21, for 0 yards to the NMS18 (#1 J.Charles; #14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+5
96.5%
(10:53) PENALTY FSU False Start (#74 J.Daniels) 5 yards from NMS18 to NMS23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+41
97.7%
(10:44) #39 G.Panikowski field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers), clock 10:41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:502% → 9%
Q4 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
97.6%
(10:41) Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at NMS31, for 20 yards to the NMS45 (#6 J.Rawls), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
97.5%
(10:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS47 (#55 K.Wynn)Similar
Q4 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
97.4%
(09:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford thrown to FSU45Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+11
97.5%
(09:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #11 A.Williams III caught at FSU42, for 11 yards to the FSU42 (#12 N.Chandler), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
97.4%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #11 A.Williams III caught at FSU37, for 7 yards to the FSU35 (#20 B.Nichelson)Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+5
97.0%
PENALTY NMS False Start (#10 L.Ravare) 5 yards from FSU35 to FSU40. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+6
97.4%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short left to #6 B.Malone-Bradford caught at FSU34, for 6 yards to the FSU34, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 7:42
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+34
91.2%
TK King 34 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 3:1498% → 99%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
97.8%
(07:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush right for 16 yards gain to the FSU41 (#4 D.Peters; #14 S.Aupiu), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NMS Face Mask (#14 S.Aupiu) 15 yards from FSU41 to NMS44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.1%
(06:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass incomplete short right thrown to NMS44 QB hurried by #16 G.PetersonSimilar
Q4 6:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
98.3%
(06:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NMS39 (#16 G.Peterson; #98 J.Gwan)Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+9
98.2%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #5 Q.Wisner caught at NMS33, for 9 yards to the NMS30 (#1 J.Charles), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
98.3%
(05:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 M.Danzy rush left for 1 yard gain to the NMS29 (#14 S.Aupiu)Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+10
98.3%
(05:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 Q.Wisner rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NMS20 (#20 D.Cloyd), out of bounds PENALTY FSU Holding (#77 X.Chaplin) 10 yards from NMS29 to NMS39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+13
98.3%
(05:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels rush left for 13 yards gain to the NMS26, out of bounds at NMS26Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+25
98.4%
(04:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short middle to #15 J.Boggs caught at NMS09, for 25 yards to the NMS01 (#20 D.Cloyd), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Short of the goal line". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.5%
(03:59) Shotgun #32 O.Kromah rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:01 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NMSUDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 33 yds · 2:222% → 2%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.2%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep right to #1 T.King thrown to NMS38Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
98.2%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete deep middle to #1 T.King thrown to NMS32 broken up by #7 A.Barker. #1 T.King injured on the playSimilar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+4
98.2%
(03:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NMS12 (#14 M.Jones)Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+16
98.2%
(03:07) #91 B.Richter punt 54 yards to the FSU34 #7 J.Lopez return 16 yards to the FSU50, out of bounds at FSU50Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+3
98.1%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NMS20 (#11 C.Richard Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
98.1%
(02:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short middle to #15 J.Thomas caught at NMS34, for 14 yards to the NMS34, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. #15 J.Thomas injured on the playSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
97.9%
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden sacked for loss of 2 yards to the NMS32 (#15 R.Kennedy)Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+5
98.3%
PENALTY FSU Illegal Substitution 5 yards from NMS12 to NMS17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+9
98.2%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass complete short right to #7 T.Pride caught at NMS40, for 9 yards to the NMS41 (#12 N.Chandler; #29 C.LaVallee)Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
98.2%
(01:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short middle to #5 M.Libman thrown to FSU45Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
98.2%
(01:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Hedden pass incomplete short middle to #1 T.King thrown to NMS45 broken up by #13 D.Diggs, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20END OF GAME
3 plays · -5 yds · 1:0799% → 99%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
99.1%
(01:30) Kneel down by #14 A.Daniels at NMS42 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-2
99.1%
(00:46) Kneel down by #14 A.Daniels at NMS44 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 13
OPP 44
-2
99.0%
(00:19) Kneel down by #14 A.Daniels at NMS46 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:42
TK King 34 Yd pass from Trey Hedden (David Barker Kick)
-6.2
TD · Q3 2:09
(02:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 S.Singleton Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:09 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)
+5.1
TD · Q2 0:36
(00:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Daniels pass complete short right to #3 S.Singleton Jr. caught at NMS00, for 4 yards to the NMS00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:36 #39 G.Panikowski kick attempt good (H: #87 C.Jula, LS: #48 C.Bowers)
+2.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com