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AF

Air Force 28 at Northern Illinois 7

NIU
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Huskie Stadium
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Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:22 · (06:22) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete short middle to #80 S.Kibbee thrown to NIU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense−50.3Score differential−28.1Pregame prior−1.8Garbage-time factor−10.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:58: (08:02) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:58 #33 J.Schlenhardt kick attempt good (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans) — NIU win probability +10.0 pts (now 48%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:41: (00:44) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +9.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:41: (00:41) #90 C.Cremascoli kickoff 65 yards to the NIU00, Touchback — NIU win probability +7.1 pts (now 35%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:28: (10:33) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 33 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:28, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +10.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:23: (07:30) #5 E.Medders rush right for 41 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +8.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:50NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:45AF 4th & 3 at AF 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 5:36AF 4th & 2 at NIU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    58.0%−2.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q3 8:39NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  5. Q3 4:05NIU 4th & 4 at AF 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.2%−1.6
    30% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−1.0
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:53NIU 4th & 1 at AF 13, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−1.6
    85% to make
    Punt
    -1.1%−6.7
    average punt
  7. Q4 6:22AF 4th & 2 at NIU 2, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    98.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 4:21NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:48AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:58NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:41AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:28AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:23AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0434% → 34%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.5%
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU30 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
33.7%
(14:28) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short middle to #7 C.Thompson caught at NIU37, for 7 yards to the NIU37, End Of Play PENALTY NIU Illegal Shift 5 yards from NIU30 to NIU25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
33.8%
(14:14) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush left for 1 yard loss to the NIU24 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
34.0%
(13:40) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short middle to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU28, for 7 yards to the NIU31 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
34.3%
(12:57) #36 J.Ference punt 52 yards to the AF17 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 7:5666% → 67%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
34.4%
(12:49) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AF22 (#2 A.Jones)Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+11
34.6%
(12:13) #3 M.Long rush right for 11 yards gain to the AF33 (#14 M.Armstrong; #2 A.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
34.7%
(11:52) #2 O.Allen rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF38 (#9 D.Reynolds)Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
34.7%
(11:25) #44 R.Conti rush left for 1 yard gain to the AF39 (#2 A.Jones)Similar
Q1 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
35.0%
(10:47) #3 M.Long rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF44 (#25 B.Kerperin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
35.0%
(10:24) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NIU49 (#25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
35.1%
(09:46) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU45 (#93 F.Omotoso), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
35.2%
(09:09) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU40 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+4
35.3%
(08:33) #28 G.LaDue rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU36 (#44 J.Murray; #25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
35.6%
(07:54) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU33 (#44 J.Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
35.5%
(07:22) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU29 (#90 K.Sneed)Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
35.6%
(06:48) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 5 yards gain to the NIU24 (#2 A.Jones), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+1
36.1%
(06:13) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU23 (#12 A.Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
35.9%
(05:30) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 20 yards gain to the NIU03 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
32.7%
(04:51) #2 O.Allen rush right for 3 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:48 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3INT
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:4134% → 35%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
34.2%
(04:47) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #0 L.Bryant caught at NIU35, for 22 yards to the NIU47 (#15 M.Inweh), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
35.2%
(04:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF49 (#45 J.Reese)Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+11
35.6%
(03:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short middle to #9 G.Dimopoulos caught at AF40, for 11 yards to the AF38 (#30 I.Hubert), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
35.7%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush middle for 7 yards gain to the AF31 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+2
36.1%
(02:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF29 (#93 A.Tillett; #47 J.Kepler)Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+18
35.6%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush left for 18 yards gain to the AF11 (#6 B.Fletcher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
36.3%
(01:13) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF09 (#6 B.Fletcher; #5 R.Jones)Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
36.5%
(00:37) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF06 (#45 J.Reese; #26 A.Perez)Similar
Q2 14:59
3RD & 5
OPP 6
-5
34.9%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass intercepted by #6 B.Fletcher at AF05 #6 B.Fletcher return 5 yards to the AF10 (#70 C.Trask)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:0466% → 67%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
33.6%
(14:55) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AF15 (#25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+19
33.6%
(14:19) #5 E.Medders rush right for 19 yards gain to the AF34 (#12 A.Warren), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
32.9%
(13:46) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF43 (#16 K.Conyers)Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-6
32.2%
(13:12) #5 E.Medders sacked for loss of 6 yards to the AF37 (#25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+4
33.1%
(12:34) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF41 (#11 A.Washington; #12 A.Warren)Similar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
33.3%
(11:53) #94 W.Duncan punt 30 yards to the NIU29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 3:3535% → 48%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
34.6%
(11:45) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU33, for 21 yards to the NIU50 (#0 L.Fisher), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
50
+3
36.1%
(11:08) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the AF47 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+6
36.4%
(10:31) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the AF41 (#2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
36.2%
(09:55) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF39 (#95 N.Daniels), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
36.3%
(09:18) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #1 D.Rogers caught at AF27, for 18 yards to the AF21 (#23 C.Paterson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
37.5%
(08:38) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush right for 12 yards gain to the AF09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.5%
(08:02) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:58 #33 J.Schlenhardt kick attempt good (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 7:1160% → 72%
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.4%
(07:58) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF31 (#16 K.Conyers; #6 J.Nelson) PENALTY NIU Personal Foul 15 yards from AF31 to AF46, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
38.6%
(07:34) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF48 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
38.8%
(07:01) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU49 (#97 J.King)Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
38.7%
(06:19) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush right for 3 yards gain to the NIU46 (#50 M.Scarlett)Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+4
39.8%
(05:40) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU42 (#44 J.Murray; #55 J.Bellamy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
38.3%
(05:03) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NIU39 (#25 B.Kerperin; #0 M.Canion)Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+6
38.2%
(04:26) #5 E.Medders rush right for 6 yards gain to the NIU33 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+2
38.2%
(03:53) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU31 (#25 B.Kerperin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
37.6%
(03:10) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 4 yards gain to the NIU27 (#44 J.Murray; #16 K.Conyers)Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+13
37.1%
(02:29) #3 M.Long rush left for 13 yards gain to the NIU14 (#11 A.Washington), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
37.1%
(01:59) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NIU05 (#14 M.Armstrong)Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+1
37.2%
(01:17) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU04 (#12 A.Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.6%
(00:44) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7END OF HALF
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:1933% → 33%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
33.4%
(00:41) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush right for 3 yards gain to the NIU28 (#8 D.Daley) PENALTY NIU Holding 10 yards from NIU25 to NIU15. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
33.1%
(00:22) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU19 (#30 I.Hubert)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2770% → 83%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
29.7%
(14:59) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF29 (#2 A.Jones)Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
29.1%
(14:21) #3 M.Long rush right for 71 yards gain (9) to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 14:11 PENALTY AF Holding 10 yards from AF38 to AF28Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
29.3%
(14:10) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF31 (#2 A.Jones) PENALTY AF Holding 10 yards from AF28 to AF18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+12
30.3%
(13:47) #18 M.Hayes rush left for 12 yards gain to the AF30 (#16 K.Conyers; #5 Y.Falke)Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
29.6%
(13:10) #44 R.Conti rush left for 9 yards gain to the AF39 (#25 B.Kerperin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
27.8%
(12:33) #3 M.Long rush left for 10 yards gain to the AF49 (#14 M.Armstrong), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
27.2%
(11:56) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF50 (#93 F.Omotoso)Similar
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
50
+17
27.0%
(11:16) #3 M.Long rush left for 17 yards gain to the NIU33 (#16 K.Conyers; #3 L.Lindo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
16.6%
(10:33) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 33 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:28, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 1:4120% → 18%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.3%
(10:26) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #7 C.Thompson caught at NIU30, for 7 yards to the NIU32 (#15 M.Inweh)Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
20.0%
PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from NIU32 to NIU27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
19.2%
(09:38) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep left to #7 C.Thompson thrown to AF35 broken up by #15 M.InwehSimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
18.6%
(09:32) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens sacked for loss of 5 yards to the NIU22 (#8 D.Daley)Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
18.2%
(08:51) #36 J.Ference punt 33 yards to the AF45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 1:1086% → 96%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
13.9%
(08:39) #5 E.Medders rush right for 9 yards gain to the NIU46 (#12 A.Warren)Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
13.4%
(08:05) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 5 yards gain to the NIU41 (#30 A.Ellis; #12 A.Warren), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
4.5%
(07:30) #5 E.Medders rush right for 41 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:23, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11DOWNS
14 plays · 62 yds · 5:219% → 5%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
8.5%
(07:22) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU30, for 12 yards to the NIU37 (#26 A.Perez; #9 M.Mustell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
8.7%
(07:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU35, for 5 yards to the NIU42 (#26 A.Perez)Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+10
6.9%
(06:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush left for 10 yards gain to the AF48 (#6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
7.0%
(05:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #0 L.Bryant caught at AF43, for 4 yards to the AF44 (#6 B.Fletcher; #2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+2
7.0%
(05:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush left for 2 yards gain to the AF42 (#0 L.Fisher; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
6.5%
(04:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the AF42 (#48 A.Menard)Similar
Q3 4:05
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+6
6.2%
(04:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #45 T.Johnson Jr. caught at AF37, for 6 yards to the AF36 (#5 R.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+14
5.7%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short right to #1 D.Rogers caught at AF22, for 14 yards to the AF22, out of bounds at AF22, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
6.2%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep left to #0 L.Bryant thrown to AF00Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
5.9%
(03:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF19 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 2:32
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+6
5.6%
(02:38) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush left for 6 yards gain to the AF13 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
5.3%
(01:59) Shotgun #24 E.Porter rush middle for 0 yards to the AF13 (#6 B.Fletcher), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12DOWNS
23 plays · 85 yds · 10:1997% → 97%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
2.7%
(01:53) #2 O.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the AF19 (#6 J.Nelson; #97 J.King)Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+2
2.4%
(01:14) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF21 (#97 J.King)Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+8
2.3%
(00:30) #5 E.Medders rush left for 8 yards gain to the AF29 (#6 J.Nelson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
2.2%
(00:00) #44 R.Conti rush right for 13 yards gain to the AF42 (#16 K.Conyers; #6 J.Nelson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
2.0%
(14:59) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 11 yards gain to the NIU47 (#44 J.Murray), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
1.8%
(14:14) #5 E.Medders rush right for 3 yards gain to the NIU44 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+11
1.7%
(13:34) #3 M.Long rush left for 11 yards gain to the NIU33 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
1.5%
(12:48) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU28 (#6 J.Nelson; #90 K.Sneed)Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+4
1.4%
(12:03) #18 M.Hayes rush left for 4 yards gain to the NIU24 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+5
1.3%
(11:29) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NIU19 (#14 M.Armstrong), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
1.1%
(10:46) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU15 (#25 B.Kerperin)Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+4
1.0%
PENALTY AF False Start 4 yards from NIU15 to NIU19. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+6
1.1%
(09:44) #2 O.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the NIU13 (#29 R.Walker)Similar
Q4 9:01
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+6
1.0%
(09:05) #5 E.Medders rush right for 6 yards gain to the NIU07 (#2 A.Jones; #90 K.Sneed), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.8%
(08:24) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU05 (#93 F.Omotoso)Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.8%
(07:41) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 3 yards gain to the NIU02 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q4 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.3%
(07:10) #5 E.Medders rush right for 0 yards to the NIU02 (#6 J.Nelson)Similar
Q4 6:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
3.1%
(06:22) Shotgun #4 K.Hodges pass incomplete short middle to #80 S.Kibbee thrown to NIU00, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:541% → 1%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
0.8%
(06:20) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NIU15 (#2 K.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
0.8%
(05:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short middle thrown to NIU15 broken up by #48 A.MenardSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
0.7%
(05:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #1 D.Rogers caught at NIU19, for 4 yards to the NIU19 (#2 K.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+9
0.7%
(05:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass complete short left to #0 L.Bryant caught at NIU25, for 9 yards to the NIU28, out of bounds at NIU28, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.7%
(05:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete deep left to #0 L.Bryant thrown to AF27Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+8
0.7%
(05:05) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens rush left for 8 yards gain to the NIU36 (#95 N.Daniels; #6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
0.6%
(04:29) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Rogers thrown to NIU35Similar
Q4 4:21
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
0.6%
(04:28) Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short middle to #0 L.Bryant thrown to NIU40 broken up by #2 K.Johnson, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14END OF GAME
9 plays · 26 yds · 3:4298% → 99%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
1.6%
(04:20) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU34 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
1.5%
(03:42) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NIU33 (#50 M.Scarlett)Similar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+11
1.4%
(02:57) Shotgun #0 O.Chambers rush right for 11 yards gain to the NIU22 (#25 B.Kerperin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
1.2%
(02:30) Shotgun #45 O.Elias rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NIU20 (#44 J.Murray; #30 A.Ellis)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
0.7%
(01:58) Shotgun #45 O.Elias rush left for 5 yards gain to the NIU15 (#44 J.Murray)Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+6
0.6%
(01:12) Shotgun #6 H.Fisher rush left for 6 yards gain to the NIU09 (#16 K.Conyers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
0.6%
(00:33) Kneel down by Air Force at NIU10 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:28
(10:33) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 33 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:28, 1ST DOWN #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
-10.4
TD · Q2 7:58
(08:02) Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 9 yards gain to the AF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:58 #33 J.Schlenhardt kick attempt good (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans)
+10
TD · Q2 0:41
(00:44) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:41 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
-9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com