Try the model
UNLV

UNLV 38 at Akron 10

AKR
2026 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:19 · (12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Gant thrown to NLV30, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+1.2Pregame prior−21.3Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:21: (07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #9 J.Thomas caught at AKR00, for 2 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:21, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Schwartz, LS: #47 T.Jacobson) — UNLV win probability +6.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:44: (02:46) #37 A.Stire field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #95 J.Castle, LS: #36 C.Volpe), clock 02:44 — AKR win probability +7.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:33: No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 16 yards gain to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson) — UNLV win probability +9.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:26: (06:29) #32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #47 T.Jacobson, LS: #26 M.Choules), clock 06:26 — UNLV win probability +4.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:41: (03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Reddicks caught at AKR17, for 59 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:41, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson) — UNLV win probability +7.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 3:26UNLV 4th & 7 at AKR 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:19AKR 4th & 1 at UNLV 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−0.7
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−2.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:21UNLV 4th & 1 at AKR 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.4%
    60% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.1%−6.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:44AKR 4th & 13 at UNLV 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:57UNLV 4th & 10 at UNLV 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:00AKR 4th & 3 at AKR 29, down 11
    Close callPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:26UNLV 4th & 4 at AKR 21, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.0%−0.3
    74% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:45AKR 4th & 7 at UNLV 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:10UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:41AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:23UNLV 4th & 16 at AKR 39, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:16AKR 4th & 17 at AKR 11, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AKR made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNLV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:58AKR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:11UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:33UNLV Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:41UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:19UNLV Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4422% → 25%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.3%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short left to #2 M.Williams caught at AKR22, for 6 yards to the AKR31 (#7 J.Pope; #8 K.Ka'aihue)Similar
Q1 14:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
22.6%
(14:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AKR36 (#44 K.Togafau; #7 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
22.8%
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short middle to #4 M.Burris thrown to NLV47 PENALTY NLV Roughing The Passer (#94 L.Conti) 15 yards from AKR36 to NLV49, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
22.9%
(13:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush left for 11 yards gain to the NLV38 (#23 C.Santee), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NLV Face Mask (#43 J.Beasley) 15 yards from NLV38 to NLV23, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
23.2%
(13:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NLV18 (#42 A.Porter)Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
23.6%
(12:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Mason thrown to NLV02Similar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+6
23.7%
(12:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short left to #1 J.Gant caught at NLV23, for 6 yards to the NLV12, out of bounds at NLV12, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
24.8%
(12:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush left for 12 yards gain to the NLV00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:58, 1ST DOWN #47 M.Schramm kick attempt good (H: #95 J.Castle, LS: #36 C.Volpe)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:2775% → 75%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
24.8%
(11:47) Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #2 T.Reddicks caught at NLV24, for 5 yards to the NLV24, out of bounds at NLV24Similar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+11
25.1%
(11:21) Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 11 yards gain to the NLV35 (#29 T.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
25.5%
(10:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NLV37 (#5 R.Hull)Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+16
26.2%
(09:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short middle to #81 V.Carner caught at AKR47, for 16 yards to the AKR47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
26.4%
(09:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AKR46 (#18 D.Nunoo; #97 V.Kavals)Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+6
26.6%
(08:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #81 V.Carner caught at AKR40, for 6 yards to the AKR40 (#15 T.Thomas)Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+40
25.0%
(08:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #9 J.Thomas caught at AKR11, for 40 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:11, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3INT
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2426% → 29%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.6%
(08:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Mason thrown to AKR27 broken up by #7 J.PopeSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.6%
(08:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AKR27 (#3 D.Crayton; #9 L.Thomas)Similar
Q1 7:19
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
25.7%
(07:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #4 M.Burris caught at AKR42, for 15 yards to the AKR42 (#2 D.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
26.9%
(06:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush right for 18 yards gain to the NLV40 (#36 J.Flowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
27.5%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush right for 5 yards gain to the NLV35 (#36 J.Flowe; #3 D.Crayton)Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+11
28.0%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush right for 11 yards gain to the NLV24 (#2 D.Harris), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
28.4%
(05:06) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short left to #3 K.Mason thrown to NLV05Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-12
28.5%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant pass intercepted by #10 T.Fulton at NLV15 broken up by #7 J.Pope #10 T.Fulton return 12 yards to the NLV27 (#1 J.Gant)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:0073% → 72%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+30
27.3%
(04:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 30 yards gain to the AKR43 (#29 T.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
26.6%
(04:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AKR40 (#1 C.Durham; #18 D.Nunoo)Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
26.8%
(03:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #10 T.Stellato thrown to AKR26Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
27.0%
(03:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #24 D.Jones thrown to AKR40 broken up by #18 D.NunooSimilar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
27.6%
(03:26) #26 M.Choules punt 28 yards to the AKR12, out of bounds at AKR12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:4728% → 33%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+16
28.2%
(03:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short middle to #2 M.Williams caught at AKR25, for 16 yards to the AKR28 (#5 Q.Keyes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
28.6%
(02:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AKR33 (#2 D.Harris)Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
29.6%
(02:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR37 (#15 B.Alualu-Tuiolemotu; #88 M.Abbasher)Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
29.8%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #83 E.Alexander rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AKR40 (#36 J.Flowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.5%
(00:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush left for 0 yards to the AKR40 (#42 A.Porter; #16 M.Altayeb)Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-1
30.5%
(00:09) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow sacked for loss of 1 yard to the AKR39 (#3 D.Crayton)Similar
Q2 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+25
30.8%
(14:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete deep right to #2 M.Williams caught at NLV35, for 25 yards to the NLV35, out of bounds at NLV35, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
32.4%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 0 yards to the NLV35 (#94 L.Conti)Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
33.0%
(13:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NLV28 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+2
32.9%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush right for 2 yards gain to the NLV26 (#3 D.Crayton; #10 T.Fulton)Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 1
OPP 26
0
32.5%
(12:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short middle to #1 J.Gant thrown to NLV30, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:3969% → 76%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
30.8%
(12:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #24 D.Jones caught at NLV25, for 7 yards to the NLV33 (#1 C.Durham)Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
30.1%
(11:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #82 P.Zachary caught at NLV34, for 6 yards to the NLV39 (#29 T.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
30.4%
(11:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #5 T.McNair caught at NLV45, for 6 yards to the NLV45 (#15 T.Thomas)Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+4
30.1%
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 4 yards gain to the NLV49 (#9 A.Branch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
30.1%
(10:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR47 (#32 D.Johnson; #20 M.Flowers)Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
30.0%
(10:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #8 T.Lyons thrown to AKR30 broken up by #20 M.FlowersSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+36
30.4%
(09:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep left to #8 T.Lyons caught at AKR18, for 36 yards to the AKR11 (#17 C.Newsome), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
29.5%
(09:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 5 yards gain to the AKR06 (#23 D.Curtis)Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+2
29.8%
(08:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AKR04 (#20 M.Flowers)Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+2
30.0%
(08:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AKR02 (#16 D.Frazier)Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 1
OPP 2
+2
24.0%
(07:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #9 J.Thomas caught at AKR00, for 2 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:21, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #39 E.Schwartz, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:3125% → 32%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.3%
(07:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR29 (#10 T.Fulton; #94 L.Conti)Similar
Q2 6:31
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
25.7%
(06:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #13 S.Patrick caught at AKR25, for 4 yards to the AKR33 (#2 D.Harris)Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
25.9%
(06:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR37 (#94 L.Conti; #36 J.Flowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
26.1%
(05:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #83 E.Alexander caught at AKR40, for 9 yards to the AKR46 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
27.6%
(04:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AKR49 (#36 J.Flowe), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
27.7%
(04:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short middle to #2 M.Williams caught at NLV35, for 21 yards to the NLV30 (#10 T.Fulton), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NLV Personal Foul (#36 J.Flowe) 15 yards from NLV30 to NLV15, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
29.2%
(03:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush right for 3 yards gain to the NLV12 (#94 L.Conti), out of bounds PENALTY AKR Holding (#56 B.Smith) 10 yards from NLV15 to NLV25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:28
1ST & 20
OPP 25
-1
28.9%
(03:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #3 K.Mason caught at NLV27, for 1 yard loss to the NLV26 (#42 A.Porter)Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 21
OPP 26
+4
28.1%
(02:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush right for 4 yards gain to the NLV22 (#3 D.Crayton; #16 M.Altayeb)Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+4
27.5%
(02:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 C.Broughton rush left for 4 yards gain to the NLV18 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q2 2:44
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+36
32.1%
(02:46) #37 A.Stire field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #95 J.Castle, LS: #36 C.Volpe), clock 02:44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:3570% → 69%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
30.4%
(02:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 13 yards gain to the NLV38, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
29.1%
(02:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #84 K.Burnett thrown to NLV42Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
29.3%
(02:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #81 V.Carner thrown to AKR48Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
30.2%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #8 T.Lyons thrown to AKR47 PENALTY NLV Holding declinedSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
31.3%
(02:00) #39 E.Schwartz punt 60 yards to the AKR02Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9END OF HALF
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4331% → 32%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
31.3%
(01:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR06 (#7 J.Pope; #10 T.Fulton)Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+3
31.2%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AKR09 (#3 D.Crayton; #44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 9
+8
30.7%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #2 M.Williams caught at AKR07, for 8 yards to the AKR17 (#10 T.Fulton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
31.5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush left for 2 yards gain to the AKR19 (#23 C.Santee; #44 K.Togafau)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2770% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Thomas thrown to NLV33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
30.6%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 5 yards gain to the NLV30 (#1 C.Durham; #18 D.Nunoo)Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
30.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #10 T.Stellato caught at NLV37, for 9 yards to the NLV39 (#32 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
28.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Reddicks caught at AKR16, for 45 yards to the AKR16, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
19.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 16 yards gain to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2621% → 20%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
21.1%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR26 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
21.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AKR29 (#23 C.Santee; #94 L.Conti)Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
20.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Mason thrown to AKR40 broken up by #10 T.FultonSimilar
Q3 12:00
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+4
20.0%
#95 J.Castle punt 63 yards to the NLV08 #82 P.Zachary return 4 yards to the NLV12 (#29 T.Davis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:3479% → 88%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
20.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #82 P.Zachary thrown to NLV25 broken up by #17 C.NewsomeSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
20.9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short right to #82 P.Zachary thrown to NLV29Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+11
21.4%
(11:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #82 P.Zachary caught at NLV23, for 11 yards to the NLV23 (#13 R.Hunter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
20.7%
(11:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 12 yards gain to the NLV35 (#18 D.Nunoo; #9 A.Branch), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
19.7%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short middle to #84 K.Burnett thrown to NLV50Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+10
19.8%
(10:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #5 T.McNair caught at NLV45, for 10 yards to the NLV45 (#32 D.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
18.0%
(09:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AKR47 (#18 D.Nunoo; #32 D.Johnson)Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+7
18.1%
(08:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush left for 7 yards gain to the AKR40 (#29 T.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
17.8%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #8 T.Lyons caught at AKR33, for 13 yards to the AKR27 (#18 D.Nunoo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
17.3%
(07:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush middle for 1 yard loss to the AKR28 (#13 R.Hunter)Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+7
17.2%
(07:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short right to #2 T.Reddicks caught at AKR22, for 7 yards to the AKR21 (#9 A.Branch)Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OPP 21
0
17.2%
(06:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete short left to #2 T.Reddicks thrown to AKR02Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 4
OPP 21
+38
12.4%
(06:29) #32 R.Villela field goal attempt from 38 yards GOOD (H: #47 T.Jacobson, LS: #26 M.Choules), clock 06:26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13INT
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:3714% → 15%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
14.3%
(06:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete deep right to #3 K.Mason caught at AKR46, for 28 yards to the NLV48 (#7 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
16.0%
(06:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #13 S.Patrick rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NLV47 (#94 L.Conti; #9 L.Thomas)Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+4
15.8%
(05:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short middle to #13 S.Patrick caught at NLV43, for 4 yards to the NLV43 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
15.0%
(04:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass intercepted by #23 C.Santee at NLV38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:4489% → 97%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
11.0%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 3 yards gain to the NLV41 (#32 D.Johnson; #10 S.Beals)Similar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+59
3.1%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Reddicks caught at AKR17, for 59 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:41, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:315% → 4%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
4.5%
(03:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete deep middle to #3 K.Mason caught at NLV39, for 46 yards to the NLV29 (#7 J.Pope), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
5.2%
(02:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NLV25 (#44 K.Togafau)Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-8
5.1%
(02:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow sacked for loss of 8 yards to the NLV33 (#10 T.Fulton)Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+7
4.2%
(01:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass complete short right to #2 M.Williams caught at NLV31, for 7 yards to the NLV26 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+44
4.1%
(00:48) #47 M.Schramm field goal attempt from 44 yards NO GOOD (H: #95 J.Castle, LS: #36 C.Volpe), clock 00:45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:3297% → 98%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
2.7%
(00:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 5 yards gain to the NLV31 (#11 D.Galloway Jr.), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
2.5%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #24 D.Jones rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NLV34 (#8 J.Mixon)Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
2.6%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NLV35 (#13 R.Hunter; #8 J.Mixon)Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+5
2.7%
PENALTY NLV False Start 5 yards from NLV35 to NLV30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+5
2.5%
(13:15) #39 E.Schwartz punt 56 yards to the AKR14 #13 S.Patrick return 5 yards to the AKR19 (#23 C.Santee)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:213% → 3%
Q4 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
2.6%
(13:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short middle to #3 K.Mason thrown to AKR35Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
2.6%
(13:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Williams thrown to AKR33Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
2.5%
(12:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Williams thrown to AKR32 broken up by #3 D.CraytonSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
2.5%
(12:47) #95 J.Castle punt 45 yards to the NLV36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 4:1198% → 99%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
2.2%
(12:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NLV37 (#29 T.Davis)Similar
Q4 12:13
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+15
2.2%
(12:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete deep left to #5 T.McNair thrown to AKR18 PENALTY AKR Pass Interference (#15 T.Thomas) 15 yards from NLV37 to AKR48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
2.0%
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold rush left for 2 yards loss to the AKR50 (#5 R.Hull; #97 V.Kavals)Similar
Q4 11:23
2ND & 12
50
+5
1.9%
(11:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 5 yards gain to the AKR45 (#25 J.Hocker)Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+12
1.7%
(10:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete short left to #9 J.Thomas caught at AKR50, for 12 yards to the AKR33 (#13 R.Hunter; #29 T.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
1.6%
(10:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush middle for 8 yards gain to the AKR25 (#9 A.Branch; #20 M.Flowers)Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+5
1.5%
PENALTY NLV False Start (#70 A.Afoa) 5 yards from AKR25 to AKR30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+6
1.5%
(09:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Orji rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AKR24 (#20 M.Flowers; #1 C.Durham)Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+15
1.5%
(08:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Orji rush middle for 3 yards loss to the AKR27 (#23 D.Curtis; #97 V.Kavals) PENALTY NLV Personal Foul (#43 J.Beasley) 15 yards from AKR24 to AKR39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 16
OPP 39
0
1.5%
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass incomplete deep left to #8 T.Lyons thrown to AKR02Similar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
1.5%
(08:31) #39 E.Schwartz punt 39 yards to the AKR00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:532% → 0%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
2.1%
(08:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow sacked for loss of 8 yards to the AKR12 (#91 E.Rudolph)Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
2.0%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass incomplete short right to #3 K.Mason thrown to AKR14 broken up by #91 E.Rudolph QB hurried by #91 E.RudolphSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 18
OWN 12
-35
0.2%
(07:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow pass intercepted by #1 M.Bin-Wahad at AKR35 #1 M.Bin-Wahad return 35 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:19 #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
0.2%
(07:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AKR21 (#4 T.Nkuba; #92 H.Gray)Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+2
0.2%
(06:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Gant rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AKR23 (#92 H.Gray; #99 J.Covington)Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-12
0.2%
(06:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 B.Roggow sacked for loss of 12 yards to the AKR11 (#42 A.Porter)Similar
Q4 5:16
4TH & 17
OWN 11
0
0.2%
(05:18) #95 J.Castle punt 41 yards to the NLV48 fair catch by #82 P.Zachary at NLV48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21END OF GAME
10 plays · 49 yds · 4:38100% → 100%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
0.2%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Vann rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR48 (#5 R.Hull; #18 D.Nunoo)Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+2
0.2%
(04:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Vann rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AKR46 (#23 D.Curtis; #18 D.Nunoo)Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+23
0.2%
(03:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Orji rush right for 23 yards gain to the AKR23 (#29 T.Davis), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
0.2%
(03:05) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 K.Williams rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AKR17 (#13 R.Hunter)Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+7
0.2%
(02:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #23 K.Williams rush left for 7 yards gain to the AKR10 (#15 T.Thomas; #13 R.Hunter), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
0.1%
(02:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #29 M.Maali rush right for 3 yards gain to the AKR07 (#32 D.Johnson)Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
0.1%
(01:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #22 S.Vann rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AKR03 (#32 D.Johnson; #23 D.Curtis)Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 3
OPP 0
0
0.1%
(00:25) Kneel down by UNLV at AKR03 for loss of 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:33
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 J.Thomas rush right for 16 yards gain to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:33, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)
-9.1
TD · Q3 3:41
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #11 J.Arnold pass complete deep middle to #2 T.Reddicks caught at AKR17, for 59 yards to the AKR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:41, 1ST DOWN #32 R.Villela kick attempt good (H: #26 M.Choules, LS: #47 T.Jacobson)
-7.9
FG · Q2 2:44
(02:46) #37 A.Stire field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD (H: #95 J.Castle, LS: #36 C.Volpe), clock 02:44
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com