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NDSU

North Dakota State 31 at Sacramento State 10

SAC
2026 · Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026 · Hornet Stadium
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Win probability · SAC
modelSAC aheadNDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playSAC scoreNDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.6SAC 1.7%(08:11) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman passcomplete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr.caught at NDSU00, for 21 yards to theNDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1STDOWN, PENALTY NDSU Pass Interferencedeclined #49 G.Meadors kick attemptgood (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48K.Sutton)AWAY 31 - HOME 10 · Q4 8:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:05 · (08:11) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at NDSU00, for 21 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference declined #49 G.Meadors kick attempt good (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Home team on offense−41.0Pregame prior−9.2Score differential−26.6Garbage-time factor−14.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:04: (00:09) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 9 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +2.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:24: (11:32) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 42 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:24, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 6:52: (06:56) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 06:52 — NDSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:05: (08:11) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at NDSU00, for 21 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference declined #49 G.Meadors kick attempt good (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton) — SAC win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:05: Timeout North Dakota State, clock 08:05 — NDSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SAC made the numbers' call on 3 of 7NDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:53SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08NDSU 4th & 4 at SAC 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:36SAC 4th & 3 at SAC 47, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:24NDSU 4th & 6 at SAC 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:54SAC 4th & 6 at SAC 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:52SAC 4th & 5 at NDSU 7, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:23NDSU 4th & 6 at SAC 48, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:20SAC 4th & 17 at NDSU 41, down 25
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:51SAC 4th & 7 at NDSU 43, down 25
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:18NDSU 4th & 5 at NDSU 14, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:03SAC 4th & 1 at NDSU 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:00NDSU 4th & 6 at SAC 11, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:03NDSU 4th & 5 at SAC 45, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SAC made the numbers' call on 0 of 1NDSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:37NDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:49NDSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:04NDSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:24NDSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:05SAC Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDSUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1794% → 94%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.9%
(15:00) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to NDSU40Similar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
5.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep right to #15 M.Collins caught at SAC40, for 38 yards to the SAC37 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
6.0%
(14:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to SAC32Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
6.0%
(14:26) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SAC33 (#9 M.Tullis; #33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
6.1%
(13:44) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #18 J.Williams caught at SAC00, for 33 yards to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:37, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:366% → 6%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
6.2%
(13:30) Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 0 yards to the SAC27 (#11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
6.3%
(12:53) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #1 J.Curtis caught at SAC20, for 4 yards to the SAC31 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
6.4%
(12:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #2 M.Coleman caught at SAC35, for 6 yards to the SAC37 (#12 D.Voltz), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
6.3%
Darius Givance 24 Yd Fumble Return (Drew Klein Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:506% → 6%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
6.3%
(11:49) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush right for 2 yards loss to the SAC23 (#14 T.Eady; #11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
6.4%
(11:09) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to SAC30Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
6.4%
(11:05) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep middle to #16 J.Williams thrown to SAC45Similar
Q1 10:53
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
6.4%
(10:58) #37 H.Adams punt 45 yards to the NDSU32 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 3:3894% → 93%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
6.4%
(10:51) No Huddle #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 2 yards gain to the NDSU34 (#33 A.Rocha; #90 A.Chambers)Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
6.5%
(10:18) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 0 yards to the NDSU34 (#58 J.Howard Jr.)Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+20
6.6%
(09:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU48, for 20 yards to the SAC46 (#22 E.Mullican; #29 C.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
6.3%
(09:05) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 2 yards gain to the SAC44 (#18 F.Puloka)Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
6.5%
(08:29) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SAC41 (#2 D.Thornton; #18 F.Puloka)Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+1
6.6%
(07:52) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 1 yard gain to the SAC40 (#18 F.Puloka)Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
6.7%
(07:12) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #18 J.Williams thrown to SAC05 QB hurried by #26 T.Thomas, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:197% → 7%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
7.1%
(07:08) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SAC48, for 8 yards to the SAC48 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 2
OWN 48
-1
7.3%
(06:30) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush right for 1 yard loss to the SAC47 (#3 G.Sell; #25 R.James)Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
7.4%
(05:45) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #16 J.Williams thrown to NDSU45 broken up by #94 L.LarsonSimilar
Q1 5:36
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
7.3%
(05:41) #37 H.Adams punt 35 yards to the NDSU18 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 42 yds · 2:0093% → 93%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+38
6.9%
(05:36) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU13, for 38 yards to the SAC44 (#55 M.Bailey; #52 I.Chala Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
6.9%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 4 yards gain to the SAC40 (#6 W.Smith Jr.; #11 I.Moore Jr.)Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
6.9%
(04:21) #7 D.Scott rush left for 0 yards to the SAC40 (#1 B.Silvera)Similar
Q1 3:31
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
7.1%
(03:35) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #81 R.Kessel thrown to SAC20 QB hurried by #11 I.Moore Jr.Similar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
7.1%
(03:28) #39 A.Bickerton punt 32 yards to the SAC08, out of bounds at SAC08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:187% → 7%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
7.2%
(03:24) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #16 J.Williams caught at SAC08, for 4 yards to the SAC12 (#14 T.Eady)Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
7.3%
(02:47) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 0 yards to the SAC12 (#14 T.Eady)Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
7.4%
(02:04) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to SAC22 broken up by #14 T.EadySimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
7.4%
(01:59) #37 H.Adams punt 37 yards to the SAC49 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at SAC49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 8TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3693% → 95%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
7.2%
(01:54) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep right to #18 J.Williams caught at SAC27, for 22 yards to the SAC27 (#29 C.Reese), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
7.2%
(01:24) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SAC23 (#45 X.Williams; #33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+14
7.3%
(00:51) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 14 yards gain to the SAC09 (#26 T.Thomas; #0 D.Turner), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
4.8%
(00:09) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 9 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 9INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:566% → 6%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
5.6%
(00:04) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep left to #2 M.Coleman caught at NDSU44, for 21 yards to the NDSU44, out of bounds at NDSU44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
5.9%
(15:00) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 1 yard loss to the NDSU45 (#1 D.Woolen)Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+15
5.9%
(14:23) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to NDSU05 PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference (#4 N.Nelson) 15 yards from NDSU45 to NDSU30, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-27
6.0%
(14:15) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass intercepted by #14 T.Eady at NDSU11 QB hurried by #11 M.Stenbroten #14 T.Eady return 27 yards to the NDSU38 (#22 I.Ene)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 2:3795% → 97%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
4.8%
(14:05) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU41 (#52 I.Chala Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
4.8%
(13:30) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU42 (#2 D.Thornton)Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
4.8%
(12:50) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #81 R.Kessel caught at SAC49, for 9 yards to the SAC49 (#1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
4.6%
(12:14) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #81 R.Kessel caught at SAC47, for 7 yards to the SAC42 (#1 B.Silvera)Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+42
3.4%
(11:32) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 42 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:24, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 11FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:004% → 3%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
3.6%
(11:00) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at SAC35, for 8 yards to the SAC38 (#34 D.Russell)Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+18
3.5%
(10:42) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush left for 18 yards gain to the NDSU44 (#6 J.Crumby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
3.8%
(10:03) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the NDSU39 (#20 W.Steil; #41 P.Haugo)Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+3
3.6%
(09:30) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU36 (#16 M.Moore; #52 K.Williams)Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+24
3.6%
(08:56) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 24 yards gain to the NDSU12 (#20 W.Steil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
3.8%
(08:13) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU09 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-3
3.7%
(07:37) Shotgun #0 D.Swinney rush middle for 3 yards loss to the NDSU12 (#25 R.James)Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
3.5%
(06:59) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #0 D.Swinney thrown to NDSU10 broken up by #9 K.McCaslinSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+5
3.5%
PENALTY NDSU Offside (#48 B.Schiltz) 5 yards from NDSU12 to NDSU07. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
3.0%
(06:56) #49 G.Meadors field goal attempt from 25 yards GOOD (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton), clock 06:52Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 12DOWNS
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:1797% → 98%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
2.8%
(06:46) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NDSU32 (#18 F.Puloka; #93 M.Kindle)Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
2.6%
(06:06) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU25, for 3 yards to the NDSU35 (#33 A.Rocha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
2.7%
(05:25) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #84 L.Conklin thrown to SAC50 broken up by #22 E.MullicanSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
2.7%
(05:19) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NDSU41 (#6 W.Smith Jr.; #58 J.Howard Jr.)Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
2.5%
(04:53) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at NDSU40, for 7 yards to the NDSU48 (#33 A.Rocha), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY SAC Offside declinedSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.5%
(04:27) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep middle to #15 M.Collins thrown to SAC00Similar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
2.5%
(04:18) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush middle for 4 yards gain to the SAC48 (#0 D.Turner; #52 I.Chala Jr.)Similar
Q2 3:29
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
2.4%
(03:33) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #18 J.Williams thrown to SAC40 broken up by #9 M.TullisSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+1
2.5%
(03:23) #40 K.Zenzen rush left for 1 yard gain to the SAC47 (#15 K.Jefferson; #27 N.King), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 1:582% → 1%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
2.4%
(03:23) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to NDSU30 broken up by #12 D.Voltz QB hurried by #1 D.WoolenSimilar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
2.5%
(03:18) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 9 yards gain to the NDSU44 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+10
2.6%
(02:45) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush right for 10 yards gain to the NDSU34 (#25 R.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
2.5%
(02:12) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU31 (#99 O.Niyonkuru; #54 A.Wayne)Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
2.7%
(02:00) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep left to #2 M.Coleman thrown to NDSU05 broken up by #25 R.JamesSimilar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+15
2.5%
(01:54) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep right to #16 J.Williams caught at NDSU10, for 23 yards to the NDSU08 (#16 M.Moore) PENALTY SAC Chop Block (#54 S.Key) 15 yards from NDSU31 to NDSU46. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+5
1.9%
(01:34) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman rush right for 5 yards gain to the NDSU41 (#29 D.Givance)Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
1.1%
(01:27) #37 H.Adams punt 38 yards to the NDSU03Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2998% → 98%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
2.1%
(01:20) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU06 (#26 T.Thomas; #55 M.Bailey)Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
1.9%
(00:41) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU09 (#58 J.Howard Jr.)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 4:032% → 1%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
1.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 1 yard loss to the SAC24 (#11 M.Stenbroten; #41 P.Haugo)Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-4
1.6%
(14:21) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #1 J.Curtis caught at SAC20, for 4 yards loss to the SAC20 (#8 K.Wilson; #12 D.Voltz)Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+18
1.2%
(13:41) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at SAC38, for 18 yards to the SAC38 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
1.5%
(13:05) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC35, for 9 yards to the SAC47, out of bounds at SAC47Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+7
1.6%
(12:29) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NDSU46 (#29 D.Givance), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
1.4%
(11:48) Shotgun #11 J.Patterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the NDSU43 (#29 D.Givance; #42 A.Elliott)Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
1.4%
(11:07) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #5 R.Brown thrown to NDSU18 QB hurried by #42 A.ElliottSimilar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
1.4%
(11:01) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short middle to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to NDSU30Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
1.4%
(10:56) #37 H.Adams punt 34 yards to the NDSU09 fair catch by #18 J.Williams at NDSU09Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+4
1.4%
(10:50) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 4 yards gain to the NDSU13 (#6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 6
OWN 13
+1
1.3%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #5 M.Mitchell caught at NDSU14, for 1 yard to the NDSU14 (#3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
1.3%
(09:33) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #81 R.Kessel thrown to NDSU20Similar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+3
1.3%
(09:26) #39 A.Bickerton punt 61 yards to the SAC25 #2 M.Coleman return 3 yards to the SAC28 (#20 W.Steil)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 36 yds · 5:041% → 1%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
1.1%
(09:16) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC36, for 8 yards to the SAC36 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+7
1.1%
(08:46) Shotgun #1 J.Curtis rush middle for 7 yards gain to the SAC43 (#95 Z.Vanderpool; #6 J.Crumby), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
1.0%
(08:04) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC48 (#1 D.Woolen; #3 G.Sell)Similar
Q3 7:16
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
1.0%
(07:23) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU49 (#3 G.Sell; #12 D.Voltz)Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
1.0%
(06:43) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at NDSU47, for 5 yards to the NDSU44, out of bounds at NDSU44, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
1.0%
(06:11) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush right for 1 yard gain to the NDSU43 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
0.8%
(05:33) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at NDSU42, for 6 yards to the NDSU37 (#8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
1.0%
(04:51) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #5 R.Brown caught at NDSU35, for 2 yards to the NDSU35 (#16 M.Moore)Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 1
OPP 35
-1
0.7%
(04:10) Shotgun #22 I.Ene rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NDSU36 (#94 L.Larson; #3 G.Sell), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 53 yds · 6:5499% → 100%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
0.7%
(04:04) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 15 yards gain to the SAC49 (#18 F.Puloka; #3 A.Wallace), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
0.6%
(03:21) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SAC48 (#2 D.Thornton; #93 M.Kindle)Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
0.6%
(02:41) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #17 I.St. Romain thrown to SAC00Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+18
0.6%
(02:34) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at SAC30, for 18 yards to the SAC30, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-6
0.6%
(01:48) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 6 yards loss to the SAC36 (#3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 16
OPP 36
+10
0.6%
(01:00) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #11 J.McCants caught at SAC21, for 15 yards to the SAC21 (#3 A.Wallace) PENALTY SAC Holding (#3 A.Wallace) 10 yards from SAC36 to SAC26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
0.5%
(00:34) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SAC25 (#6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-1
0.5%
(15:00) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #18 J.Williams caught at SAC30, for 1 yard loss to the SAC26 (#3 A.Wallace)Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+11
0.5%
(14:18) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at SAC32, for 11 yards to the SAC15 (#33 A.Rocha), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.5%
(13:34) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush middle for 0 yards to the SAC15 (#18 F.Puloka; #6 W.Smith Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
0.4%
(12:52) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #18 J.Williams caught at SAC11, for 4 yards to the SAC11 (#2 D.Thornton)Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
0.4%
(12:10) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Patterson thrown to SAC00 broken up by #1 B.SilveraSimilar
Q4 12:00
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+29
0.4%
(12:03) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 29 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 12:00 PENALTY SAC UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#9 M.Tullis) 15 yards from SAC00 to NDSU50, 1ST DOWNSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 19TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:280% → 2%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.2%
(11:36) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 5 yards gain to the SAC25 (#42 A.Elliott; #95 Z.Vanderpool)Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+18
0.2%
(11:21) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #4 K.Shabazz caught at SAC40, for 18 yards to the SAC43 (#20 W.Steil), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
0.2%
(10:44) Shotgun #3 C.Rhaney rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SAC44 (#95 Z.Vanderpool)Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
0.2%
(10:06) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #7 K.Taylor caught at SAC41, for 0 yards to the SAC44 (#4 N.Nelson)Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+13
0.1%
(09:29) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #2 M.Coleman caught at NDSU45, for 13 yards to the NDSU43 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
0.1%
(08:50) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep middle to #16 J.Williams caught at NDSU22, for 22 yards to the NDSU21 (#52 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
1.7%
(08:11) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at NDSU00, for 21 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference declined #49 G.Meadors kick attempt good (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:5399% → 99%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
0.9%
(08:01) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 5 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#8 D.Jeanty)Similar
Q4 7:15
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
0.8%
(07:21) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 0 yards to the NDSU24 (#18 F.Puloka; #33 A.Rocha)Similar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+15
0.8%
(06:38) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #3 J.Patterson thrown to SAC36 broken up by #1 B.Silvera PENALTY SAC Roughing The Passer (#18 F.Puloka) 15 yards from NDSU24 to NDSU39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.7%
(06:30) #4 N.Punni rush right for 0 yards to the NDSU39 (#1 B.Silvera; #55 M.Bailey)Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
0.6%
(05:49) Shotgun #0 P.Brown rush right for 11 yards gain to the NDSU50 (#8 D.Jeanty; #1 B.Silvera), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
50
+2
0.5%
(05:10) Shotgun #0 P.Brown rush left for 2 yards gain to the SAC48 (#22 E.Mullican)Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
0.5%
(04:27) Shotgun #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 3 yards gain to the SAC45 (#1 B.Silvera; #45 X.Williams)Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
0.5%
(04:19) Shotgun #0 P.Brown pass incomplete short left to #26 B.Wavrunek thrown to SAC45 broken up by #6 W.Smith Jr. QB hurried by #33 A.RochaSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
0.6%
(04:08) #39 A.Bickerton punt 35 yards to the SAC10 fair catch by #2 M.Coleman at SAC10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 21INT
13 plays · 82 yds · 2:430% → 0%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
0.4%
(04:03) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at SAC12, for 8 yards to the SAC18 (#42 A.Elliott)Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+11
0.4%
(03:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short middle to #5 R.Brown caught at SAC29, for 11 yards to the SAC29 (#30 J.Archibald), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
0.4%
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #16 J.Williams caught at SAC45, for 16 yards to the SAC45, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
0.4%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #2 M.Coleman caught at NDSU45, for 18 yards to the NDSU37 (#42 A.Elliott), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
0.4%
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short left to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to NDSU27 broken up by #28 K.CarterSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
0.4%
(02:26) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short right to #82 K.Koontz caught at NDSU31, for 6 yards to the NDSU31, out of bounds at NDSU31Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
0.3%
(02:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #7 K.Taylor caught at NDSU26, for 5 yards to the NDSU26 (#56 A.Burley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
0.4%
(02:00) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to NDSU02Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
0.4%
(01:54) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to NDSU15 QB hurried by #56 A.BurleySimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+13
0.4%
(01:51) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete deep right to #2 M.Coleman thrown to NDSU00, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference (#14 T.Eady) 13 yards from NDSU26 to NDSU13, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
0.4%
(01:44) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete short left to #3 C.Rhaney caught at NDSU11, for 5 yards to the NDSU06 (#28 K.Carter)Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
0.3%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass incomplete short right to #12 O.Smith Jr. thrown to NDSU00Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
0.3%
(01:14) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass intercepted by #34 D.Russell at NDSU02, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
0.4%
(01:07) Shotgun #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU06 (#33 A.Rocha; #45 X.Williams)Similar
Q4 0:23
2ND & 6
OWN 6
-1
0.4%
(00:23) Kneel down by #0 P.Brown at NDSU05 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:04
(00:09) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 9 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:04 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
-2.4
TD · Q4 8:05
(08:11) Shotgun #8 J.Sharman pass complete deep left to #12 O.Smith Jr. caught at NDSU00, for 21 yards to the NDSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:05, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NDSU Pass Interference declined #49 G.Meadors kick attempt good (H: #37 H.Adams, LS: #48 K.Sutton)
+1.6
TD · Q2 11:24
(11:32) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 42 yards gain to the SAC00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 11:24, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
-1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com