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Fordham 0 at North Dakota State 38

NDSU
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Fargodome
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Win probability · NDSU
modelNDSU aheadFOR aheadconfidence bandkey playNDSU scoreFOR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:19 · (02:32) #97 D.Sansone punt 48 yards to the NDSU27 #18 J.Williams return 31 yards to the FOR42 (#27 J.Ofori-Ansah) PENALTY NDSU Holding declined NDSU Personal Foul (#6 J.Crumby) 15 yards from NDSU35 to NDSU20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginGarbage-time factor
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 66Pregame prior+38.6Home team on offense+8.5Score differential+2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:56: (14:56) #7 D.Scott rush left for 3 yards gain to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 6:04: Timeout North Dakota State, clock 06:04 — NDSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:55: (00:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #8 C.Kiel caught at FOR00, for 8 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:55 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:56: (14:04) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass intercepted by #16 M.Moore at FOR37 QB hurried by #11 M.Stenbroten #16 M.Moore return 37 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:56 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FOR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:51: (10:56) #7 D.Scott rush right for 7 yards gain to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:51 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson) — NDSU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FOR made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:51NDSU 4th & 1 at FOR 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.4%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01NDSU 4th & 14 at FOR 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    77% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:21FOR 4th & 14 at FOR 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:12NDSU 4th & 1 at FOR 4, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:13NDSU 4th & 1 at FOR 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:04NDSU 4th & 4 at FOR 5, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    96.5%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    95.7%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:19FOR 4th & 10 at FOR 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:05FOR 4th & 26 at FOR 9, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:30FOR 4th & 8 at FOR 27, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:54NDSU 4th & 2 at NDSU 35, up 38
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:40FOR 4th & 9 at FOR 43, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:33NDSU 4th & 11 at FOR 31, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:53FOR 4th & 6 at NDSU 28, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NDSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q2 14:56NDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:55NDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:56NDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:51NDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:28NDSU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDSUDrive 1FG
18 plays · 58 yds · 6:5599% → 99%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
99.1%
(14:02) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU22, for 12 yards to the NDSU35 (#19 B.Owens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.0%
(13:46) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 8 yards gain to the NDSU43 (#1 D.Minich; #12 A.Osmun)Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-1
99.0%
(13:33) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 1 yard loss to the NDSU42 (#32 J.Dawson)Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+13
99.0%
(13:04) #7 D.Scott rush middle for 13 yards gain to the FOR45 (#1 D.Minich; #11 J.Schmitt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.0%
(12:29) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #3 J.Patterson caught at FOR46, for 3 yards to the FOR42 (#1 D.Minich; #12 A.Osmun)Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+6
98.9%
(11:55) #4 N.Punni rush left for 6 yards gain to the FOR36 (#6 A.Riddick)Similar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
98.9%
(11:33) No Huddle #2 N.Hayes rush middle for 0 yards to the FOR36 (#11 J.Schmitt; #98 C.Spencer)Similar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+5
98.8%
(10:56) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FOR31 (#46 L.Riddick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
98.8%
(10:18) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #5 M.Mitchell thrown to FOR30Similar
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
98.8%
(10:14) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 4 yards gain to the FOR27 (#11 J.Schmitt)Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+12
98.7%
(09:29) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at FOR22, for 12 yards to the FOR15 (#15 J.Johnson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
98.7%
(09:03) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at FOR09, for 6 yards to the FOR09 (#6 A.Riddick), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-2
98.6%
(08:23) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes rush left for 2 yards loss to the FOR11 (#1 D.Minich)Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+7
98.6%
(07:46) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush left for 11 yards gain (7) to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 07:42 PENALTY NDSU Holding (#62 G.Empey) 10 yards from FOR04 to FOR14Similar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 9
OPP 14
-5
98.5%
(07:35) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 5 yards to the FOR19 (#42 J.Mwangelwa)Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 14
OPP 19
+39
98.5%
(07:03) #37 D.Klein field goal attempt from 39 yards GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 07:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:362% → 2%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
(07:01) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to #24 C.Tuck II thrown to FOR34 broken up by #1 D.WoolenSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.5%
(06:55) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FOR29 (#3 G.Sell; #8 K.Wilson)Similar
Q1 5:43
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
98.4%
(06:06) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #88 A.Bond caught at FOR41, for 12 yards to the FOR41 (#25 R.James), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
98.3%
(05:28) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush left for 0 yards to the FOR41 (#11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.2%
(04:46) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #84 J.Morris caught at FOR46, for 5 yards to the FOR46 (#3 G.Sell; #25 R.James)Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-9
98.1%
(04:07) Shotgun #12 G.Smith sacked for loss of 9 yards to the FOR37 (#3 G.Sell)Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
98.2%
(03:26) #97 D.Sansone punt 28 yards to the NDSU35, out of bounds at NDSU35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:1698% → 98%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
98.1%
(03:19) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 17 yards gain to the FOR48 (#27 A.Revella), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
98.0%
(02:38) #2 N.Hayes pass complete deep left to #11 J.McCants caught at FOR13, for 35 yards to the FOR13 (#0 K.Pothel), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
98.0%
(01:53) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FOR07 (#1 D.Minich)Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 4
OPP 7
-2
97.9%
(01:16) #5 M.Mitchell rush left for 2 yards loss to the FOR09 (#46 L.Riddick; #32 J.Dawson), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+5
97.8%
(00:42) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FOR04 (#46 L.Riddick)Similar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
97.7%
(00:12) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FOR03 (#12 A.Osmun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
(14:56) #7 D.Scott rush left for 3 yards gain to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 14:56 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:402% → 3%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.0%
(14:55) Shotgun #25 J.James rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FOR30 (#54 A.Wayne)Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
97.9%
(14:18) Shotgun #25 J.James rush middle for 8 yards gain to the FOR38 (#3 G.Sell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
97.9%
(13:36) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short right to #24 C.Tuck II caught at NDSU43, for 23 yards to the NDSU39 (#14 T.Eady), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
97.7%
(13:00) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #88 A.Bond caught at NDSU34, for 5 yards to the NDSU34 (#3 G.Sell; #14 T.Eady)Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+5
97.5%
(12:22) PENALTY FOR False Start (#50 W.Scarritt) 5 yards from NDSU34 to NDSU39. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
97.5%
(11:58) Shotgun #12 G.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU35 (#94 L.Larson)Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 35
-8
97.4%
(11:14) Shotgun #12 G.Smith rush left for 8 yards loss to the NDSU43 fumbled by #12 G.Smith at NDSU43 recovered by NDSU #94 L.Larson at NDSU43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 5DOWNS
14 plays · 52 yds · 4:5698% → 97%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
97.6%
(11:04) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU47 (#42 J.Mwangelwa)Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
97.6%
(10:32) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #7 D.Scott caught at NDSU49, for 5 yards to the FOR48 (#32 J.Dawson)Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+14
97.4%
(10:06) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at FOR43, for 14 yards to the FOR34 (#12 A.Osmun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
97.5%
(09:42) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at FOR28, for 6 yards to the FOR28, out of bounds at FOR28 PENALTY FOR Illegal Substitution 5 yards from FOR34 to FOR29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & 5
OPP 29
-3
97.4%
(09:26) Shotgun #8 C.Kiel rush left for 3 yards loss to the FOR32 (#12 A.Osmun). #1 D.Minich injured on the playSimilar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-7
97.4%
(08:49) #2 N.Hayes sacked for loss of 7 yards to the FOR39 (#12 A.Osmun)Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+5
97.1%
PENALTY FOR Offside (#98 C.Spencer) 5 yards from FOR39 to FOR34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+9
97.2%
(07:49) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at FOR30, for 9 yards to the FOR25 (#38 A.Fiala), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 7:13
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+14
97.0%
(07:19) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #8 C.Kiel caught at FOR11, for 14 yards to the FOR11 (#6 A.Riddick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
97.2%
(07:11) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 2 yards gain to the FOR09 (#11 J.Schmitt; #27 A.Revella), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
97.2%
(06:54) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to FOR00 broken up by #6 A.RiddickSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+4
97.1%
(06:48) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 4 yards gain to the FOR05 (#11 J.Schmitt; #12 A.Osmun)Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
96.9%
(06:09) #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #81 R.Kessel thrown to FOR00 QB hurried by #46 L.Riddick, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:353% → 3%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
97.1%
(06:03) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush right for 2 yards gain to the FOR08 (#11 M.Stenbroten; #42 A.Elliott)Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+3
97.0%
(05:17) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FOR11 (#9 K.McCaslin; #28 K.Carter)Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+14
96.9%
(04:43) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #84 J.Morris caught at FOR18, for 14 yards to the FOR25 (#29 D.Givance; #52 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.7%
(04:04) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush right for 3 yards loss to the FOR22 (#0 V.Isele)Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
96.7%
(03:15) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short left to #5 R.Gonzalez II thrown to FOR29 QB hurried by #94 L.LarsonSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+3
96.8%
(03:11) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short right to #25 J.James caught at FOR20, for 3 yards to the FOR25 (#28 K.Carter)Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.2%
(02:32) #97 D.Sansone punt 48 yards to the NDSU27 #18 J.Williams return 31 yards to the FOR42 (#27 J.Ofori-Ansah) PENALTY NDSU Holding declined NDSU Personal Foul (#6 J.Crumby) 15 yards from NDSU35 to NDSU20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 7TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 1:1197% → 98%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.2%
(02:12) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush middle for 4 yards gain to the NDSU24 (#12 A.Osmun)Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
97.4%
(01:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #18 J.Williams caught at NDSU30, for 6 yards to the NDSU30 (#1 D.Minich), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
97.4%
(01:53) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #7 D.Scott caught at NDSU27, for 11 yards to the NDSU41 (#27 A.Revella), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
97.5%
(01:46) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #8 C.Kiel caught at FOR41, for 19 yards to the FOR40 (#12 A.Osmun), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
97.6%
(01:38) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FOR36 (#27 A.Revella; #46 L.Riddick) PENALTY FOR Holding (#90 T.Afalava) 10 yards from FOR36 to FOR26, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
97.4%
(01:17) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #84 L.Conklin caught at FOR22, for 9 yards to the FOR17 (#15 J.Johnson), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+8
96.9%
(01:09) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at FOR09, for 8 yards to the FOR09, out of bounds at FOR09, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
97.1%
(01:05) Shotgun #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 1 yard gain to the FOR08 (#11 J.Schmitt; #45 T.Davis)Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
98.4%
(00:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #8 C.Kiel caught at FOR00, for 8 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:55 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 8END OF HALF
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
98.6%
(00:46) Shotgun #12 G.Smith sacked for loss of 10 yards to the FOR11 (#9 K.McCaslin)Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 20
OWN 11
+6
98.7%
(00:00) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the FOR17 (#1 D.Woolen; #3 G.Sell)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 9INT TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:552% → 1%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.8%
(14:54) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to #88 A.Bond thrown to FOR37Similar
Q3 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
97.9%
(14:49) Shotgun #25 J.James rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FOR22 (#11 M.Stenbroten)Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-37
98.9%
(14:04) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass intercepted by #16 M.Moore at FOR37 QB hurried by #11 M.Stenbroten #16 M.Moore return 37 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:56 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 10INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.7%
(13:55) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush right for 6 yards gain to the FOR31 (#34 D.Russell; #52 K.Williams)Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
98.6%
(13:22) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FOR33 (#34 D.Russell; #99 O.Niyonkuru)Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
98.8%
(12:40) Shotgun #13 Y.Louis rush right for 3 yards gain to the FOR36 (#11 M.Stenbroten; #52 K.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-24
98.8%
(11:58) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass intercepted by #52 K.Williams at FOR39 #52 K.Williams return 24 yards to the FOR15 (#13 Y.Louis; #78 W.Smith)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:2299% → 100%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
99.2%
(11:18) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FOR14 (#99 B.Henderson)Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+7
99.2%
(11:06) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to FOR01 PENALTY FOR Face Mask (#15 J.Johnson) 7 yards from FOR14 to FOR07, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
(10:56) #7 D.Scott rush right for 7 yards gain to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:51 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -16 yds · 1:380% → 0%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
(10:50) Shotgun #14 T.Denson rush left for 1 yard gain to the FOR26 (#95 Z.Vanderpool)Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.8%
(10:11) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short left to #24 C.Tuck II thrown to FOR30Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-17
99.8%
(10:06) Shotgun #12 G.Smith sacked for loss of 17 yards to the FOR09 (#11 M.Stenbroten), fumble by #12 G.Smith recovered by FOR #12 G.Smith at FOR09, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 9:05
4TH & 26
OWN 9
0
99.8%
(09:14) #97 D.Sansone punt 50 yards to the NDSU41 #3 J.Patterson return 0 yards to the NDSU41 (#21 N.Tracy)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 13TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:29100% → 100%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.9%
(09:04) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 15 yards gain to the FOR44 (#12 A.Osmun; #6 A.Riddick), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
(08:24) Shotgun #7 D.Scott rush right for 4 yards gain to the FOR40 (#6 A.Riddick)Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
(07:43) #5 M.Mitchell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FOR36 (#27 A.Revella)Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
99.9%
(07:05) #5 M.Mitchell rush right for 5 yards gain to the FOR31 (#11 J.Schmitt; #12 A.Osmun), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
99.9%
(06:26) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush middle for 9 yards gain (2) to the FOR22 (#1 D.Minich; #2 J.Kabaka) PENALTY NDSU Holding (#62 G.Empey) 10 yards from FOR29 to FOR39Similar
Q3 5:56
1ST & 18
OPP 39
0
99.9%
(06:00) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #15 M.Collins thrown to FOR22Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 18
OPP 39
+9
99.9%
(05:55) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short middle to #8 C.Kiel caught at FOR35, for 9 yards to the FOR30 (#46 L.Riddick)Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+18
99.9%
(05:15) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #81 R.Kessel caught at FOR22, for 18 yards to the FOR12 (#19 B.Owens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
(04:33) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short right to #15 M.Collins caught at FOR00, for 12 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:28, 1ST DOWN #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:510% → 0%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
(04:26) Shotgun #25 J.James rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FOR27 (#42 A.Elliott)Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
(03:49) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short right to #7 A.Hughes thrown to FOR39 broken up by #7 C.TuckerSimilar
Q3 3:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.9%
(03:44) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to #88 A.Bond thrown to FOR31Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
(03:40) #97 D.Sansone punt 48 yards to the NDSU25 #3 J.Patterson return 2 yards to the NDSU27 (#27 A.Revella)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:19100% → 100%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
(03:28) Shotgun #10 T.Drake pass complete short left to #3 J.Patterson caught at NDSU32, for 9 yards to the NDSU36 (#1 D.Minich; #19 B.Owens)Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 1
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
(02:50) #4 N.Punni rush middle for 1 yard loss to the NDSU35 (#12 A.Osmun)Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
99.9%
(02:07) Shotgun #10 T.Drake pass incomplete short right to #3 J.Patterson thrown to NDSU38Similar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
99.9%
(02:01) #39 A.Bickerton punt 35 yards to the FOR30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 3:020% → 0%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
100.0%
(01:53) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short right to #21 N.Tracy caught at FOR36, for 8 yards to the FOR38 (#34 D.Russell; #42 A.Elliott)Similar
Q3 1:11
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
(01:16) Shotgun #14 T.Denson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FOR42 (#95 Z.Vanderpool), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
100.0%
(00:36) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #14 T.Denson caught at FOR45, for 3 yards to the FOR45 (#20 W.Steil)Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
100.0%
(14:59) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass incomplete short middle to #84 J.Morris thrown to FOR48 QB hurried by #60 T.RobertsSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+3
100.0%
(14:52) Shotgun #14 T.Denson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the FOR48 (#42 A.Elliott; #56 A.Burley)Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+5
100.0%
(14:10) PENALTY FOR False Start (#78 W.Smith) 5 yards from FOR48 to FOR43. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+16
100.0%
(13:50) #97 D.Sansone punt 40 yards to the NDSU17 #3 J.Patterson return 23 yards to the NDSU40 (#27 A.Revella) PENALTY NDSU Holding (#28 K.Carter) 10 yards from NDSU33 to NDSU23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 17MISSED FG
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:59100% → 100%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
100.0%
(13:38) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU26 (#50 B.Oliver Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+12
100.0%
(12:59) #4 N.Punni rush middle for 12 yards gain to the NDSU38 (#11 J.Schmitt), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
100.0%
(12:20) Shotgun #4 N.Punni rush left for 3 yards gain to the NDSU41 (#6 A.Riddick; #96 J.Dunnemann II)Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-3
100.0%
(11:42) #32 B.Kpeenu rush left for 3 yards loss to the NDSU38 (#32 J.Dawson)Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+19
100.0%
(11:07) #10 T.Drake pass complete short left to #83 C.Osterman caught at NDSU49, for 19 yards to the FOR43 (#6 A.Riddick; #11 J.Schmitt), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
100.0%
(10:35) #26 B.Wavrunek rush middle for 5 yards gain to the FOR38 (#32 J.Dawson)Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
100.0%
(09:58) #32 B.Kpeenu rush middle for 1 yard gain to the FOR37 (#32 J.Dawson)Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+7
100.0%
(09:14) Shotgun #10 T.Drake pass complete short left to #86 D.Vokal caught at FOR30, for 7 yards to the FOR30 (#4 K.Tye), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
100.0%
(08:32) Shotgun #32 B.Kpeenu rush right for 7 yards gain to the FOR23 (#11 J.Schmitt)Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 3
OPP 23
0
100.0%
(07:54) #32 B.Kpeenu rush middle for 0 yards to the FOR23 (#12 A.Osmun; #98 C.Spencer)Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-8
100.0%
(07:18) Shotgun #0 P.Brown sacked for loss of 8 yards to the FOR31 (#42 J.Mwangelwa)Similar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 11
OPP 31
+49
100.0%
(06:33) #38 J.Onuonga field goal attempt from 49 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson), clock 06:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FORDrive 18INT
13 plays · 49 yds · 5:000% → 0%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
100.0%
(06:32) Shotgun #34 J.Rodriguez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the FOR35 (#60 T.Roberts; #99 O.Niyonkuru)Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+18
100.0%
(05:50) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #84 J.Morris caught at FOR48, for 18 yards to the NDSU47 (#13 M.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
100.0%
(05:16) Shotgun #34 J.Rodriguez rush left for 5 yards gain to the NDSU42 (#35 R.Satter; #47 J.Wrbanek)Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+1
100.0%
(04:36) Shotgun #34 J.Rodriguez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU41 (#60 T.Roberts)Similar
Q4 3:39
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+9
100.0%
(03:51) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short middle to #4 K.Reed caught at NDSU32, for 9 yards to the NDSU32 (#13 M.Ford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
100.0%
(03:12) Shotgun #16 T.Fallon rush left for 0 yards to the NDSU32 (#50 D.Devine)Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+8
100.0%
(02:32) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short left to #5 R.Gonzalez II caught at NDSU24, for 8 yards to the NDSU24 (#50 D.Devine)Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
100.0%
(02:05) Shotgun #34 J.Rodriguez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NDSU23 (#35 R.Satter; #47 J.Wrbanek)Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+5
100.0%
(02:00) PENALTY FOR False Start (#50 W.Scarritt) 5 yards from NDSU23 to NDSU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:53
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+8
100.0%
(01:59) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass complete short right to #24 C.Tuck II caught at NDSU28, for 8 yards to the NDSU20 (#53 C.Evink), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-20
100.0%
(01:27) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass intercepted by #33 W.Braaten at NDSU02 #33 W.Braaten return 20 yards to the NDSU22 (#4 K.Reed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDSUDrive 19END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:23100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
100.0%
(01:17) Kneel down by #0 P.Brown at NDSU21 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 11
OWN 21
-2
100.0%
(00:37) Kneel down by #0 P.Brown at NDSU19 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:55
(00:59) Shotgun #2 N.Hayes pass complete short left to #8 C.Kiel caught at FOR00, for 8 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 00:55 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
+1.2
TD · Q3 13:56
(14:04) Shotgun #12 G.Smith pass intercepted by #16 M.Moore at FOR37 QB hurried by #11 M.Stenbroten #16 M.Moore return 37 yards to the FOR00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:56 #37 D.Klein kick attempt good (H: #39 A.Bickerton, LS: #48 C.Anderson)
+1
KEY PLAY · Q2 6:04
Timeout North Dakota State, clock 06:04
+0.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com