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CMU

Central Michigan 7 at New Mexico 38

UNM
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+4.8UNM 94.0%(01:04) #31 G.Glasgow field goalattempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #19M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock01:04AWAY 0 - HOME 20 · Q2 1:04
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:04 · (01:04) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 01:04
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense+19.7Pregame prior+14.7Score differential+14.5Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:18: (07:23) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:18, 1ST DOWN #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein) — UNM win probability +1.7 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:56: (12:56) #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:56 #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein) — UNM win probability +4.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 8:19: (08:19) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 08:19 — UNM win probability +3.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 1:04: (01:04) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 01:04 — UNM win probability +4.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: End of 2nd quarter. — UNM win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:18UNM 4th & 4 at UNM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:37CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:07UNM 4th & 1 at UNM 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:59CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19UNM 4th & 12 at CMU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    83.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:14CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:04UNM 4th & 6 at CMU 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−3.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:35CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 43, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:34CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 22, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:29CMU 4th & 3 at CMU 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:07CMU 4th & 3 at UNM 46, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:31UNM 4th & 19 at CMU 32, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    51% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:23CMU 4th & 1 at UNM 23, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:07UNM 4th & 5 at CMU 44, up 31
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CMU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 7:18UNM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:56UNM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:03UNM Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:23CMU Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3377% → 77%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.4%
(14:59) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNM29 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.)Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
77.3%
(14:16) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 2 yards gain to the UNM31 (#1 J.Douglas; #26 M.McKenzie)Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
77.1%
(13:29) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short right to #25 D.Patterson thrown to UNM32Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
77.0%
(13:24) #35 C.Steinkamp punt 37 yards to the CMU32 fair catch by #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. at CMU32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:5523% → 23%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
77.0%
(13:17) Shotgun #2 B.Townsend rush right for 3 yards gain to the CMU35 (#2 M.Swaim)Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
76.8%
(12:41) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU36 (#5 F.Edwards)Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 6
OWN 36
-7
76.7%
(11:59) Shotgun #7 A.Flores sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CMU29 (#12 D.Speech)Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
76.7%
(11:21) #18 D.Duley punt 49 yards to the UNM22 fair catch by #16 M.Beltran, Jr. at UNM22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:5377% → 78%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
76.5%
(11:14) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short right to #0 M.Williams thrown to UNM26 QB hurried by #26 M.McKenzieSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
76.5%
(11:09) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short left to #7 T.Walsh thrown to UNM25 broken up by #26 M.McKenzieSimilar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+16
76.3%
(11:05) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 16 yards gain to the UNM38 (#1 J.Douglas), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CMU Holding (#26 M.McKenzie) 10 yards from UNM38 to UNM48, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+21
76.8%
(10:50) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete deep left to #11 M.Mingo caught at CMU28, for 21 yards to the CMU31, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
76.8%
(10:05) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 2 yards gain to the CMU29 (#40 B.McCalla; #5 K.Demma)Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
76.6%
(09:27) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 15 yards gain to the CMU14 fumbled by #22 S.Humphrey at CMU21 forced by #19 D.Bryant Jr. recovered by UNM #14 D.Darling at CMU14, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
76.5%
(08:46) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 2 yards gain to the CMU12 (#92 J.Cherry)Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+5
76.4%
(08:06) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short middle to #11 M.Mingo caught at CMU07, for 5 yards to the CMU07 (#27 T.Campbell)Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
78.1%
(07:23) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 7 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:18, 1ST DOWN #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3422% → 22%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.6%
(07:17) Shotgun #2 B.Townsend rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU26 (#2 M.Swaim; #45 B.Karhu)Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
77.6%
(06:33) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. thrown to CMU40 QB hurried by #10 D.AguSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
77.9%
(06:24) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass complete short right to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. caught at CMU28, for 2 yards to the CMU28 (#12 D.Speech)Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+18
78.0%
(05:47) #18 D.Duley punt 54 yards to the UNM18 #16 M.Beltran, Jr. return 18 yards to the UNM36 (#11 X.White)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5TD
16 plays · 64 yds · 7:2878% → 83%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.0%
(05:35) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short middle to #7 T.Walsh caught at UNM41, for 5 yards to the UNM41 (#17 C.Ali)Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
78.3%
(04:59) Shotgun #10 L.Moga rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNM43 (#10 J.Alston), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
78.1%
(04:50) #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNM45 (#34 D.Esper)Similar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+3
77.9%
(04:12) Shotgun #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM48 (#96 Q.Bird; #10 J.Alston), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
78.6%
(03:33) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short left to #81 B.George caught at UNM45, for 3 yards to the CMU49 (#14 J.Taylor; #20 J.Jones)Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
78.6%
(02:51) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #5 T.Omeire caught at CMU38, for 11 yards to the CMU38 (#4 J.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
78.5%
(02:14) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush right for 10 yards gain to the CMU28 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
78.6%
(01:34) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 8 yards gain to the CMU20 (#34 D.Esper; #11 X.White)Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
78.7%
(00:52) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #21 K.Sibley caught at CMU25, for 3 yards to the CMU17 (#5 K.Demma; #27 T.Campbell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
78.7%
(00:08) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU14 (#35 M.Hitchens; #92 J.Cherry)Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
78.7%
(14:58) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short left to #81 B.George thrown to CMU00Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
78.4%
(14:53) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #88 C.Keith caught at CMU06, for 8 yards to the CMU06 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
78.8%
(14:14) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU03 (#4 J.Jackson; #19 D.Bryant Jr.)Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.8%
(13:37) Shotgun #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CMU01 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.; #1 J.Douglas)Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.4%
(12:56) #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:56 #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:4918% → 18%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.8%
(12:54) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush right for 1 yard gain to the CMU26 (#6 J.Eck; #92 B.Booker)Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
81.9%
(12:15) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete short middle to #24 V.Blue thrown to CMU36 broken up by #92 B.BookerSimilar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
82.1%
(12:10) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass incomplete short right to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. thrown to CMU37 QB hurried by #0 A.Brawley and #6 J.EckSimilar
Q2 11:59
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
82.2%
(12:03) #18 D.Duley punt 38 yards to the UNM36, out of bounds at UNM36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:3384% → 88%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
83.6%
(11:58) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #14 D.Darling caught at UNM41, for 9 yards to the UNM45 (#12 D.Philord)Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
84.2%
(11:23) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNM47 (#11 X.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
84.4%
(10:43) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete deep left to #81 B.George thrown to CMU28Similar
Q2 10:29
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
84.3%
(10:37) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #88 C.Keith caught at CMU49, for 3 yards to the UNM50 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.)Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
50
+10
84.1%
(09:55) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short middle to #88 C.Keith thrown to CMU41 broken up by #4 J.Jackson PENALTY CMU Holding (#4 J.Jackson) 10 yards from CMU50 to CMU40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
84.6%
(09:50) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short left to #81 B.George caught at CMU29, for 11 yards to the CMU29 (#43 K.Hayward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
84.8%
(09:13) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short middle to #6 J.Eck thrown to CMU25Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-3
84.8%
(09:09) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short right thrown to CMU10 QB hurried by #92 J.Cherry and #4 J.Jackson PENALTY UNM Intentional Grounding (#10 L.Moga)Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 16
OPP 35
+4
84.2%
(09:03) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 4 yards gain to the CMU31 (#6 H.Zirkle)Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
87.5%
(08:19) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 08:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5714% → 13%
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.1%
(08:18) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete deep middle to #20 L.Lewis thrown to UNM32 broken up by #8 O.ArnoldSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.2%
(08:10) Shotgun #16 S.Foster rush right for 2 yards gain to the CMU27 (#6 J.Eck)Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
86.4%
(07:31) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete short left to #17 B.Naves thrown to CMU36Similar
Q2 7:14
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
86.6%
(07:25) #18 D.Duley punt 62 yards to the UNM11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9FG
16 plays · 60 yds · 6:0388% → 94%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
87.7%
(07:12) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 5 yards gain to the UNM16 (#40 B.McCalla)Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+11
88.1%
(06:28) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short right to #81 B.George caught at UNM24, for 11 yards to the UNM27 (#34 D.Esper), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
88.3%
(05:51) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete deep right to #5 T.Omeire thrown to CMU49 broken up by #12 D.Philord PENALTY CMU Pass Interference (#12 D.Philord) 15 yards from UNM27 to UNM42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
88.7%
(05:45) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short left to #14 D.Darling thrown to UNM48 PENALTY UNM Holding (#58 J.Tasi) 10 yards from UNM42 to UNM32. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+4
88.4%
(05:39) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UNM36 (#40 B.McCalla)Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 15
OWN 37
+10
88.8%
(04:55) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short right to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM31, for 9 yards to the UNM45 (#17 C.Ali) PENALTY CMU Holding (#97 M.Van Fleet) 10 yards from UNM36 to UNM46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
89.3%
(04:38) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 1 yard gain to the UNM47 (#34 D.Esper; #97 M.Van Fleet)Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
89.4%
(03:56) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 7 yards gain to the CMU46 (#40 B.McCalla), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+3
89.3%
(03:10) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU43 (#4 J.Jackson; #35 M.Hitchens), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
89.8%
(02:25) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete deep right to #81 B.George thrown to CMU10 PENALTY CMU Holding (#26 M.McKenzie) 10 yards from CMU43 to CMU33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
89.9%
(02:17) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 0 yards to the CMU33 (#48 N.VanTimmeren; #11 X.White)Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
90.3%
(01:59) PENALTY UNM False Start (#51 M.Aliane) 5 yards from CMU33 to CMU38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:53
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+9
90.1%
(01:58) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 9 yards gain to the CMU29 (#32 J.Reinbold; #5 K.Demma)Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
89.3%
(01:12) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass incomplete short right to #5 T.Omeire thrown to CMU23 broken up by #4 J.JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+46
94.0%
(01:04) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 01:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:347% → 7%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.4%
(01:02) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #31 J.Clerveaux caught at CMU25, for 1 yard to the CMU26 (#7 T.Combs)Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
93.5%
(00:57) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. caught at CMU23, for 2 yards to the CMU28 (#92 B.Booker)Similar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
93.6%
(00:52) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush right for 8 yards gain to the CMU36 (#7 T.Combs), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.1%
(00:44) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush right for 8 yards gain to the CMU44 (#7 T.Combs)Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+11
92.9%
(00:38) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush right for 11 yards gain to the UNM45 (#6 J.Eck; #0 A.Brawley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.8%
(00:26) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass intercepted by #15 X.Slayton at UNM43, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:1096% → 95%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
95.6%
(00:24) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush right for 9 yards gain to the CMU48 (#5 K.Demma; #40 B.McCalla)Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+15
95.5%
(00:13) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae rush left for 15 yards gain to the CMU33 (#12 D.Philord), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
95.0%
(00:04) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 50 yards NO GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 00:00Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:162% → 2%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.6%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush middle for 5 yards gain to the CMU30 (#15 X.Slayton)Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+8
97.2%
(14:23) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush right for 8 yards gain to the CMU38 (#1 J.Torres; #2 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.0%
PENALTY CMU False Start (#8 R.VanWetzinga) 5 yards from CMU38 to CMU33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-1
97.1%
(13:31) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass complete short left to #24 V.Blue caught at CMU29, for 1 yard loss to the CMU32 (#0 A.Brawley)Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+1
97.4%
(13:04) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush right for 1 yard gain to the CMU33 (#94 J.Mciver)Similar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 15
OWN 33
+10
97.8%
(12:21) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass complete short middle to #88 J.Allen caught at CMU42, for 10 yards to the CMU43 (#0 A.Brawley; #6 J.Eck)Similar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
97.8%
(11:43) #18 D.Duley punt 57 yards to the UNM00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:2398% → 99%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.0%
(11:33) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass incomplete short right to #81 B.George thrown to UNM31. #92 J.Cherry injured on the playSimilar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.0%
(11:26) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush left for 9 yards gain to the UNM29 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.; #11 X.White)Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
98.1%
(10:39) Shotgun #12 J.Laubstein rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM32 (#11 X.White), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
98.2%
(09:59) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short left to #88 C.Keith caught at UNM43, for 17 yards to the UNM49 (#5 K.Demma), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
98.4%
(09:18) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush left for 13 yards gain to the CMU38 (#19 D.Bryant Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
98.5%
(08:36) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #6 Z.Smith caught at CMU43, for 7 yards to the CMU31 (#4 J.Jackson) PENALTY CMU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#4 J.Jackson) 15 yards from CMU31 to CMU16, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
98.6%
(08:14) Shotgun #10 L.Moga rush left for 3 yards gain to the CMU13, End Of Play PENALTY CMU Personal Foul (#48 N.VanTimmeren) 7 yards from CMU13 to CMU06, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 6
OPP 7
+3
98.7%
(07:48) Shotgun #22 S.Humphrey rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU03 (#32 J.Reinbold)Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
(07:09) Shotgun #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:05 #22 S.Humphrey rush attempt SuccessfulSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
(07:02) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete deep right to #17 B.Naves thrown to UNM28Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
(06:55) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU26 (#5 F.Edwards; #22 J.Charles)Similar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-4
99.5%
(06:17) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser sacked for loss of 4 yards to the CMU22 (#45 B.Karhu)Similar
Q3 5:34
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+29
99.5%
(05:43) #18 D.Duley punt 46 yards to the UNM32 #16 M.Beltran, Jr. return 29 yards to the CMU39 (#10 J.Alston; #42 L.Swanson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
99.6%
(05:32) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short right to #0 M.Williams caught at CMU20, for 19 yards to the CMU20 (#24 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.6%
(04:52) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short left to #5 T.Omeire caught at CMU12, for 9 yards to the CMU11 (#27 T.Campbell)Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+11
99.6%
(04:07) Shotgun #10 L.Moga pass complete short left to #81 B.George caught at CMU00, for 11 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:03, 1ST DOWN #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16FUMBLE
13 plays · 13 yds · 4:490% → 0%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
(04:01) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete short right to #3 N.Williams thrown to CMU31 broken up by #0 A.Brawley PENALTY CMU Ineligible Downfield on Pass declinedSimilar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.7%
(03:55) Shotgun #31 J.Clerveaux rush middle for 10 yards gain to the CMU35 (#19 E.Brody; #12 D.Speech), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.7%
(03:07) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush left for 3 yards gain to the CMU38 (#10 D.Agu)Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
99.8%
(02:26) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush right for 4 yards gain to the CMU42 (#6 J.Eck; #98 N.Barber)Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
99.8%
(01:48) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass incomplete deep right to #20 L.Lewis thrown to UNM36 broken up by #0 A.BrawleySimilar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+5
99.7%
(01:41) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser pass complete short left to #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. caught at CMU47, for 5 yards to the CMU47, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. #69 J.Booth injured on the playSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.7%
(01:14) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush left for 2 yards gain to the CMU49 (#7 T.Combs; #9 E.McClain)Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
99.8%
(00:33) Shotgun #9 J.Ruffin, Jr. rush right for 2 yards gain to the UNM49 (#0 A.Brawley; #18 C.Martineau)Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+3
99.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser rush right for 3 yards gain to the UNM46 (#2 M.Swaim)Similar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 3
OPP 46
-16
99.8%
(14:18) Shotgun #5 J.Glasser sacked for loss of 16 yards to the CMU38 (#10 D.Agu), fumble by #5 J.Glasser recovered by UNM #94 J.Mciver at CMU38, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17FG
9 plays · 6 yds · 4:28100% → 100%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.8%
(14:03) Shotgun #23 C.Mathews rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU35 (#35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+6
99.8%
(13:20) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete short right to #25 D.Patterson caught at CMU32, for 6 yards to the CMU29 (#12 D.Philord)Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
(12:36) Shotgun #12 J.Laubstein rush right for 6 yards gain to the CMU23 (#12 D.Philord), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.8%
(11:57) Shotgun #23 C.Mathews rush middle for 0 yards to the CMU23 (#1 J.Douglas; #11 X.White)Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
99.8%
(11:12) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae pass complete deep left to #84 T.Moore caught at CMU00, for 23 yards to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:06 PENALTY UNM False Start (#9 K.Diop) 5 yards from CMU23 to CMU28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 15
OPP 28
+4
99.8%
(10:51) Shotgun #21 K.Sibley rush middle for 4 yards gain to the CMU24 (#35 M.Hitchens)Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-8
99.9%
(10:17) Shotgun #13 T.Fa'avae sacked for loss of 8 yards to the CMU32 (#5 K.Demma)Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 19
OPP 32
+49
99.9%
(09:33) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 09:31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:590% → 0%
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(09:29) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 3 yards gain to the CMU28 (#2 M.Swaim; #19 E.Brody)Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
(08:53) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU29 (#12 D.Speech; #22 J.Charles)Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
99.9%
(08:18) Shotgun #7 A.Flores pass complete short right to #3 N.Williams caught at CMU32, for 11 yards to the CMU40 (#12 D.Speech; #4 J.Sheridan), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.9%
(07:43) Shotgun #24 V.Blue rush right for 16 yards gain to the UNM44 (#20 K.Longstreet; #3 C.McBean), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
99.9%
(07:14) Shotgun #20 L.Lewis rush right for 4 yards gain to the UNM40 (#2 M.Swaim)Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
(06:42) Shotgun #16 S.Foster rush left for 8 yards gain to the UNM32 (#2 M.Swaim), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
99.9%
(06:09) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UNM30 (#18 C.Martineau)Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
(05:34) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UNM24 (#9 E.McClain)Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+1
99.9%
(04:53) Shotgun #7 A.Flores rush right for 1 yard gain to the UNM23 (#46 J.DeVos)Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
(04:28) Shotgun #3 N.Williams rush right for 23 yards gain to the UNM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:23, 1ST DOWN #38 C.VanHuis kick attempt good (H: #18 D.Duley, LS: #57 C.Ridderhoff)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
(04:21) Shotgun #23 C.Mathews rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UNM28 (#30 A.Cherry, Jr.)Similar
Q4 3:38
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+23
99.9%
(03:45) Shotgun #20 D.Bowers rush right for 23 yards gain to the CMU49 (#43 K.Hayward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
(03:00) Shotgun #23 C.Mathews rush left for 1 yard gain to the CMU48 (#32 J.Reinbold; #10 J.Alston)Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 9
OPP 48
-2
99.9%
(02:23) Shotgun #20 D.Bowers rush middle for 2 yards loss to the CMU50 (#48 N.VanTimmeren)Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 11
50
+6
99.9%
(01:58) Shotgun #23 C.Mathews rush middle for 6 yards gain to the CMU44 (#35 M.Hitchens; #10 J.Alston)Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
99.9%
(01:13) #35 C.Steinkamp punt 44 yards to the CMU00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:340% → 0%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
(01:05) Shotgun #43 N.Woodford rush left for 5 yards gain to the CMU25 (#1 J.Torres)Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
(00:25) Shotgun #43 N.Woodford rush left for 3 yards gain to the CMU28 (#19 E.Brody)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 1:04
(01:04) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 46 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 01:04
+4.8
TD · Q2 12:56
(12:56) #12 J.Laubstein rush middle for 1 yard gain to the CMU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:56 #31 G.Glasgow kick attempt good (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein)
+4.6
FG · Q2 8:19
(08:19) #31 G.Glasgow field goal attempt from 48 yards GOOD (H: #19 M.Kern, LS: #50 L.Epstein), clock 08:19
+3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com