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DUQ

Duquesne 0 at Air Force 34

AF
2026 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2026 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadDUQ aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreDUQ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:19 · (01:23) #44 R.Conti rush right for 10 yards gain to the DUQ49 (#11 Z.Chambers; #21 C.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 30Pregame prior+40.8Home team on offense+3.1Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:17: (12:17) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:17 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +1.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 10:32: (10:40) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the DUQ08 (#6 D.Fields) — AF win probability +0.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 9:33: (09:33) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 09:33 — AF win probability +0.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 4:04: (04:04) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 04:04 — AF win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:21: (01:21) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:21 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms) — AF win probability +1.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 5 of 6DUQ made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:49AF 4th & 1 at DUQ 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:19DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:19AF 4th & 1 at AF 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:33AF 4th & 4 at DUQ 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:37DUQ 4th & 6 at DUQ 29, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:04AF 4th & 15 at DUQ 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:32DUQ 4th & 4 at DUQ 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:32AF 4th & 2 at AF 35, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:33DUQ 4th & 14 at DUQ 33, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:54AF 4th & 10 at AF 5, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:51DUQ 4th & 10 at DUQ 45, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:43DUQ 4th & 9 at DUQ 37, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:45DUQ 4th & 19 at DUQ 41, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:06AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:17AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:21AF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:19AF Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:5097% → 96%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.5%
(14:59) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF27 (#6 D.Fields)Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
96.4%
(14:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush right for 5 yards gain to the AF32 (#27 N.Pate), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
96.3%
(13:58) No Huddle #44 R.Conti rush left for 9 yards gain to the AF41 (#21 C.Jones), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
96.3%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF45 (#52 C.Lance; #21 C.Jones)Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
96.2%
(12:53) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF48 (#27 N.Pate)Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
96.1%
(12:12) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUQ48 (#44 Z.Patillo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
96.0%
(11:30) Shotgun #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUQ46 (#93 J.Stephens)Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
95.9%
(10:51) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUQ41 (#0 R.Johnson)Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+2
95.8%
(10:17) #2 O.Allen rush right for 2 yards gain to the DUQ39 (#11 Z.Chambers; #44 Z.Patillo)Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+2
95.6%
(09:56) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUQ37 (#27 N.Pate; #99 C.Stec), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
95.6%
(09:22) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #3 M.Long caught at DUQ19, for 18 yards to the DUQ19 (#2 D.Cerisier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
95.5%
(08:50) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 15 yards gain to the DUQ04 (#1 J.Monds III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.8%
(08:08) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 4 yards gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:06 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:424% → 5%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.7%
(08:04) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short left to #14 R.Petras caught at DUQ26, for 3 yards to the DUQ28 (#26 A.Perez), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
95.6%
(07:36) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUQ31 (#2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
95.5%
(07:00) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short right to #14 R.Petras caught at DUQ35, for 4 yards to the DUQ35 (#26 A.Perez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.3%
(06:16) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush right for 6 yards gain to the DUQ41 (#23 C.Paterson)Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
95.1%
(05:32) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short middle to #2 M.Walker thrown to DUQ50 QB hurried by #8 D.DaleySimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
95.2%
(05:30) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short middle to #2 M.Walker thrown to AF44 QB hurried by #59 C.BarnettSimilar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
95.3%
(05:24) #81 A.Graham punt 59 yards to the AF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3TD
17 plays · 80 yds · 7:5595% → 96%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
95.3%
(05:16) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF23 (#55 L.Miller; #11 Z.Chambers)Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
95.2%
(04:47) #44 R.Conti rush left for 6 yards gain to the AF29 (#52 C.Lance)Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
95.1%
(04:16) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF32 (#52 C.Lance), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.1%
(03:41) #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 0 yards to the AF32 (#27 N.Pate)Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
94.9%
(02:57) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 8 yards gain to the AF40 (#27 N.Pate)Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
94.8%
PENALTY AF Delay Of Game 5 yards from AF40 to AF35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+6
94.6%
(01:52) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF41 (#55 L.Miller)Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+10
94.6%
(01:23) #44 R.Conti rush right for 10 yards gain to the DUQ49 (#11 Z.Chambers; #21 C.Jones), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
94.7%
(00:50) #29 S.Maiava-Alaimalo rush left for 4 yards gain to the DUQ45 (#88 B.Blakey; #27 N.Pate)Similar
Q1 0:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+1
94.7%
(00:12) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short right to #18 M.Hayes caught at DUQ44, for 1 yard to the DUQ44 (#5 D.Harper)Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+6
94.5%
(14:58) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 6 yards gain to the DUQ38 (#38 W.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
94.5%
(14:15) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 14 yards gain to the DUQ24 (#2 D.Cerisier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
94.4%
(13:35) #3 M.Long rush right for 8 yards gain to the DUQ16 (#5 D.Harper), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+4
94.4%
(13:07) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUQ12 (#27 N.Pate; #99 C.Stec), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
94.3%
(12:45) #44 R.Conti rush left for 11 yards gain to the DUQ01 (#21 C.Jones; #55 L.Miller), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
(12:17) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:17 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 4INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:285% → 5%
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
(12:14) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUQ28 (#6 B.Fletcher; #22 E.Oyamendan)Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
95.0%
(11:31) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short right to #32 N.Davis caught at DUQ23, for 4 yards to the DUQ32 (#22 E.Oyamendan)Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-26
95.0%
(10:48) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass intercepted by #9 M.Mustell at DUQ36 #9 M.Mustell return 26 yards to the DUQ10 (#18 C.Camp)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5996% → 97%
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
95.7%
(10:40) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 2 yards gain to the DUQ08 (#6 D.Fields)Similar
Q2 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
95.7%
(10:03) #44 R.Conti rush right for 4 yards gain to the DUQ04 (#18 J.Banks), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.5%
(09:41) #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #80 S.Kibbee thrown to DUQ00 broken up by #27 N.PateSimilar
Q2 9:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
96.5%
(09:33) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 21 yards GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 09:33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:454% → 4%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.0%
(09:30) Shotgun #4 S.Solomon, Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUQ28 (#7 N.Beckwith; #45 J.Reese)Similar
Q2 8:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
(08:56) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short right to #2 M.Walker thrown to DUQ33Similar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
96.1%
(08:52) Shotgun #18 C.Camp rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUQ29 (#30 I.Hubert), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 8:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
96.1%
(08:41) #81 A.Graham punt 43 yards to the AF28 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7FG
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:2397% → 98%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
96.5%
(08:33) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF30 (#55 L.Miller)Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
96.3%
(08:05) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF34 (#10 J.Buddin)Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
96.2%
(07:31) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush middle for 10 yards gain to the AF44 (#99 C.Stec), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
96.5%
(07:04) #3 M.Long rush left for 9 yards gain to the DUQ47 (#18 J.Banks)Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+2
96.5%
(06:24) #5 E.Medders rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUQ45 (#55 L.Miller), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
96.5%
(05:51) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 15 yards gain to the DUQ30 (#13 J.Harrell; #18 J.Banks), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
96.5%
(05:25) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass complete short left to #28 G.LaDue caught at DUQ12, for 30 yards to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 05:19 PENALTY AF Illegal Touch-Pass (#28 G.LaDue). NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
96.5%
(05:17) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 5 yards gain to the DUQ25 (#18 J.Banks)Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+10
96.4%
(04:36) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUQ24 (#44 Z.Patillo), out of bounds PENALTY AF Holding (#75 A.Falk) 10 yards from DUQ25 to DUQ35. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 4:09
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
96.3%
(04:14) Shotgun #5 E.Medders pass incomplete short right to #10 A.Hrynciw thrown to DUQ17 broken up by #21 C.JonesSimilar
Q2 4:04
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+52
97.6%
(04:04) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 04:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:322% → 2%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.6%
PENALTY DUQ Delay Of Game 5 yards from DUQ25 to DUQ20. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+12
97.6%
(04:01) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush middle for 12 yards gain to the DUQ32 (#23 C.Paterson)Similar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
97.5%
PENALTY DUQ False Start (#6 Z.Correll) 5 yards from DUQ32 to DUQ27. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
97.6%
(03:19) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short right to #1 A.Thomas caught at DUQ31, for 4 yards to the DUQ31, out of bounds at DUQ31Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.6%
(02:42) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short middle to #32 N.Davis thrown to DUQ40 broken up by #6 B.FletcherSimilar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.7%
(02:32) #98 J.Willis punt 42 yards to the AF27 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5298% → 98%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
97.9%
(02:30) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush right for 9 yards gain to the AF36 (#1 J.Monds III), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+5
98.0%
(02:05) PENALTY AF False Start (#55 L.Vonderhaar) 5 yards from AF36 to AF31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
97.9%
(01:57) #9 L.Szarka pass complete short left to #44 R.Conti caught at AF27, for 0 yards to the AF31 (#11 Z.Chambers)Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+4
97.9%
(01:19) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka rush right for 4 yards gain to the AF35 (#11 Z.Chambers)Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
97.8%
(00:35) #94 W.Duncan punt 51 yards to the DUQ14 fair catch by #14 R.Petras at DUQ14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 10INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:192% → 3%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
97.7%
(00:28) Shotgun #0 D.Hopkins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUQ17 (#93 A.Tillett; #8 D.Daley) PENALTY AF Face Mask (#93 A.Tillett) 15 yards from DUQ17 to DUQ32, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.5%
(00:20) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short left to #6 Z.Correll caught at DUQ37, for 5 yards to the DUQ37 (#2 K.Johnson)Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+13
97.5%
(00:18) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short right to #1 A.Thomas caught at DUQ48, for 13 yards to the DUQ50, out of bounds at DUQ50, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
50
0
97.3%
(00:11) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short right to #14 R.Petras thrown to AF45 QB hurried by #30 I.Hubert and #93 A.TillettSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
50
0
97.4%
(00:00) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass intercepted by #2 K.Johnson at AF06, End Of Play PENALTY DUQ Illegal Formation declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 3:212% → 2%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.9%
(14:57) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush right for 4 yards gain to the DUQ29 (#23 C.Paterson)Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
97.8%
(14:24) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush right for 3 yards loss to the DUQ26 (#2 K.Johnson; #6 B.Fletcher), out of bounds PENALTY DUQ Holding declinedSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
98.1%
(14:05) Shotgun #18 C.Camp rush right for 11 yards gain to the DUQ37, out of bounds at DUQ37, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
98.0%
(13:35) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush left for 2 yards gain to the DUQ39 (#59 C.Barnett)Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+2
97.6%
(12:57) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUQ41 (#23 C.Paterson)Similar
Q3 12:10
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-8
97.7%
(12:16) Shotgun #18 C.Camp sacked for loss of 8 yards to the DUQ33 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 11:33
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
97.7%
(11:33) #98 J.Willis punt 57 yards to the AF10 #3 M.Long return 0 yards to the AF10 (#9 J.Holmes; #18 J.Banks) PENALTY AF Holding (#4 M.Seiken) 5 yards from AF10 to AF05Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1398% → 98%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
98.3%
(10:07) Shotgun #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the AF08 (#3 A.Ramirez)Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-3
98.3%
(10:07) Shotgun #44 R.Conti rush left for 3 yards loss to the AF05 (#13 J.Harrell)Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 10
OWN 5
0
98.3%
(10:07) Shotgun #9 L.Szarka pass incomplete short right to #10 A.Hrynciw thrown to AF05Similar
Q3 9:54
4TH & 10
OWN 5
0
98.2%
(10:01) #94 W.Duncan punt 62 yards to the DUQ33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:572% → 2%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
97.9%
(09:51) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUQ36 (#23 C.Paterson)Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
97.9%
(09:17) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush middle for 0 yards to the DUQ36 (#6 B.Fletcher; #26 A.Perez)Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+9
98.1%
(08:32) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass complete short right to #14 R.Petras caught at DUQ35, for 9 yards to the DUQ45 (#93 A.Tillett), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.1%
(07:49) Shotgun #32 N.Davis rush left for 0 yards to the DUQ45 (#6 B.Fletcher)Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.1%
(07:07) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short left to #84 B.Abdelrahman thrown to AF37Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
(07:02) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short right to #1 A.Thomas thrown to AF44 broken up by #22 E.OyamendanSimilar
Q3 6:51
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
(06:51) #81 A.Graham punt 39 yards to the AF16 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 5:2399% → 100%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
98.5%
(06:50) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 8 yards gain to the AF24 (#11 Z.Chambers)Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+7
98.5%
(06:16) #4 K.Hodges rush left for 7 yards gain to the AF31 (#11 Z.Chambers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
98.4%
(05:42) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 11 yards gain to the AF42 (#12 A.Forehand; #18 J.Banks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
98.4%
(05:05) #3 M.Long rush right for 11 yards gain to the DUQ47 (#0 R.Johnson; #2 D.Cerisier), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+29
98.4%
(04:19) #4 K.Hodges rush right for 29 yards gain to the DUQ18 (#1 J.Monds III), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
98.4%
(03:42) #2 O.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUQ15 (#6 D.Fields)Similar
Q3 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+7
98.5%
(03:09) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 7 yards gain to the DUQ08 (#13 J.Harrell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.5%
(02:34) #2 O.Allen rush left for 0 yards to the DUQ08 (#6 D.Fields)Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
98.0%
(01:57) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 6 yards gain to the DUQ02 (#13 J.Harrell; #21 C.Jones)Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
(01:21) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:21 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:320% → 0%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
(01:19) Shotgun #0 D.Hopkins rush right for 8 yards gain to the DUQ33 (#5 R.Jones)Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.9%
(00:42) Shotgun #0 D.Hopkins rush middle for 3 yards gain to the DUQ36 (#6 B.Fletcher; #99 J.Oquendo), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
(00:01) Shotgun #0 D.Hopkins rush middle for 1 yard gain to the DUQ37 (#6 B.Fletcher; #99 J.Oquendo)Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
99.9%
(14:58) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete deep left to #14 R.Petras thrown to AF40Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
99.9%
(14:54) Shotgun #18 C.Camp pass incomplete short middle to #21 D.Tarabrella thrown to AF47 broken up by #2 K.JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:43
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
99.9%
(14:48) #81 A.Graham punt 38 yards to the AF25 fair catch by #3 M.Long at AF25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:18100% → 100%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
(14:41) #4 K.Hodges rush middle for 6 yards gain to the AF31 (#11 Z.Chambers; #13 J.Harrell)Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
(14:09) #3 M.Long rush left for 5 yards gain to the AF36 (#13 J.Harrell; #0 R.Johnson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.8%
(14:01) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 4 yards gain to the AF40 (#11 Z.Chambers; #21 C.Jones)Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+7
99.9%
(13:31) #20 K.Sack rush right for 7 yards gain to the AF47 (#38 W.Martin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
(12:53) #20 K.Sack rush left for 3 yards gain to the AF50 (#18 J.Banks)Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 7
50
0
99.9%
(12:11) #5 E.Medders pass incomplete short middle to #36 A.Hange thrown to DUQ33Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 7
50
+13
99.9%
(12:08) #5 E.Medders rush left for 13 yards gain to the DUQ37 (#8 J.Monds), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
(11:43) #28 G.LaDue rush middle for 4 yards gain to the DUQ33 (#6 D.Fields)Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
(11:11) #5 E.Medders rush right for 10 yards gain to the DUQ23 (#54 J.Farrell; #19 I.Summerlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
(10:33) #45 O.Elias rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUQ21 (#88 B.Blakey)Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+12
99.9%
(09:59) #18 M.Hayes rush right for 12 yards gain to the DUQ09 (#19 I.Summerlin), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.9%
(09:29) #45 O.Elias rush middle for 2 yards gain to the DUQ07 (#23 S.Thomas)Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
99.9%
(08:56) #20 K.Sack rush left for 3 yards gain to the DUQ04 (#8 J.Monds; #12 A.Forehand)Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
(08:22) Shotgun #5 E.Medders rush right for 4 yards gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:19 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUQDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 16 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(08:17) Shotgun #0 D.Hopkins rush left for 0 yards to the DUQ25 (#50 G.Forsythe; #95 N.Daniels)Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
(07:42) Shotgun #7 L.Kushner pass incomplete short right to #24 D.Cook thrown to DUQ40 broken up by #7 N.BeckwithSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
(07:36) Shotgun #7 L.Kushner pass incomplete deep right to #6 Z.Correll thrown to DUQ46 PENALTY AF Pass Interference (#15 M.Inweh) 15 yards from DUQ25 to DUQ40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.9%
(07:32) Shotgun #7 L.Kushner pass complete short right to #1 A.Thomas caught at DUQ47, for 10 yards to the DUQ50 (#15 M.Inweh), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.9%
PENALTY DUQ False Start (#56 C.Young) 5 yards from DUQ50 to DUQ45. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
(06:35) Shotgun #7 L.Kushner pass complete short left to #13 D.Byrd caught at DUQ46, for 1 yard to the DUQ46 (#15 M.Inweh)Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 14
OWN 46
0
99.9%
(05:49) Shotgun #7 L.Kushner pass incomplete short left to #1 A.Thomas thrown to AF44Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
99.9%
(05:42) Shotgun #7 L.Kushner rush middle for 0 yards to the DUQ46 (#42 B.Whitson; #90 M.Alcine)Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 14
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
PENALTY DUQ Delay Of Game 5 yards from DUQ46 to DUQ41. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 4:45
4TH & 19
OWN 41
0
99.9%
(04:53) #98 J.Willis punt 52 yards to the AF07Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18END OF GAME
12 plays · 60 yds · 3:39100% → 100%
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
99.9%
(04:43) Shotgun #0 O.Chambers rush left for 9 yards gain to the AF16 (#23 S.Thomas), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 4:23
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+5
99.9%
PENALTY AF False Start (#54 J.Perales) 5 yards from AF16 to AF11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
99.9%
(04:02) Shotgun #24 L.Rauh rush middle for 2 yards gain to the AF13 (#34 M.Wright)Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+7
99.9%
(03:33) Shotgun #33 M.Lowe rush right for 7 yards gain to the AF20 (#25 N.Collins, Jr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
99.9%
(02:59) Shotgun #24 L.Rauh rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF37 (#12 A.Forehand; #25 N.Collins, Jr), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
(01:54) #6 H.Fisher rush left for 4 yards gain to the AF41 (#34 M.Wright)Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
99.9%
(01:54) #26 J.Turner rush right for 9 yards gain to the AF50 (#52 C.Lance), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
50
+7
100.0%
(01:51) #34 O.Morales rush middle for 7 yards gain to the DUQ43 (#28 D.Harper; #30 K.O'Donnell)Similar
Q4 1:16
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+5
100.0%
(01:20) #6 H.Fisher rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUQ38 (#28 D.Harper), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
100.0%
(01:01) #27 P.Davis rush middle for 5 yards gain to the DUQ33 (#30 K.O'Donnell; #92 J.Logan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:21
(01:21) #9 L.Szarka rush left for 2 yards gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:21 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
+1.8
TD · Q2 12:17
(12:17) #9 L.Szarka rush right for 1 yard gain to the DUQ00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:17 #90 C.Cremascoli kick attempt good (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms)
+1.5
FG · Q2 4:04
(04:04) #90 C.Cremascoli field goal attempt from 52 yards GOOD (H: #98 R.D'Angelo, LS: #46 J.Helms), clock 04:04
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com