Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
UTSA32
NAVY21
UTSA by 11 · market UTSA by 6.75
Win chance
UTSA71%
NAVY 29%UTSA 71%
Projected total
54pts
Market total 55.5
Explore the range of outcomes
55%
chance UTSA wins by 7 or more
45% UTSA wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← NAVY winsUTSA wins →
-21-7+7+21+35
- 50% of outcomes
- NAVY by 1 to UTSA by 21
- 80% of outcomes
- NAVY by 12 to UTSA by 28
- 90% of outcomes
- NAVY by 15 to UTSA by 33
- Median
- UTSA by 9
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What's at stake
Playoff odds, and how this result moves them.
| The teams playing | Now | With a winWith a win | With a lossWith a loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 14% | 19% | 3% |
| Also riding on it | Now | NAVY wins (29%)If Navy wins (29%) | UTSA wins (71%)If UTSA wins (71%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 49% | 50% | 48% |
| Boise State | 30% | 31% | 29% |
2026 week 6 odds, simulated every Tuesday. All playoff odds