Pregame projection
Points model v7 · market line as of Oct 13, 9:17 AM ET, shown for referenceProjected score
MEM31
TULN24
MEM by 7 · market MEM by 6.75
Win chance
MEM68%
MEM 68%TULN 32%
Projected total
54pts
Market total 54.25
Explore the range of outcomes
46%
chance Memphis wins by 7 or more
54% Memphis wins by 6 or fewer, or loses
← TULN winsMEM wins →
-28-140+14+28+42
- 50% of outcomes
- TULN by 2 to MEM by 15
- 80% of outcomes
- TULN by 15 to MEM by 27
- 90% of outcomes
- TULN by 19 to MEM by 33
- Median
- MEM by 5
Not betting advice. This is just a model. These numbers are statistical estimates for entertainment and information only - not a prediction of what will happen and not a recommendation to bet on this or any game. The model is built without betting lines, and no model is reliably more accurate than the betting market. Scores and ranges cover regulation only (no overtime), and even the widest range here misses about 1 game in 10. If you choose to gamble, do so legally and responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
What's at stake
Playoff odds, and how this result moves them.
| The teams playing | Now | With a winWith a win | With a lossWith a loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis | 23% | 31% | 7% |
| Also riding on it | Now | MEM wins (68%)If Memphis wins (68%) | TULN wins (32%)If Tulane wins (32%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | 49% | 48% | 51% |
| Boise State | 30% | 29% | 31% |
| Houston | 31% | 30% | 32% |
and 2 more teams whose odds move a little
2026 week 6 odds, simulated every Tuesday. All playoff odds