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TLSA

Tulsa 26 at Navy 34

NAVY
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-10.3NAVY 25.4%(10:24) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes passcomplete short right to #2 O.Singletoncaught at Navy00, for 3 yards to theNavy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23 #10B.Hayes pass attempt failedAWAY 26 - HOME 14 · Q3 10:23
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:23 · (10:24) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #2 O.Singleton caught at Navy00, for 3 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23 #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failed
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Home team on offense−17.7Garbage-time factor−5.1Score differential−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:17: Truman Brasfield 58 Yd pass from Jackson Gutierrez (Nolan Bartley Kick) — NAVY win probability +8.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:23: (10:24) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #2 O.Singleton caught at Navy00, for 3 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23 #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failed — TLSA win probability +10.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:07: (05:07) #23 C.Robinson rush right for 7 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:07 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt failed (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +16.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 8:30: (08:31) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +28.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:10: (01:11) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry) — NAVY win probability +13.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 7:18TLSA 4th & 1 at NAVY 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    37.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−1.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:31NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:10TLSA 4th & 3 at NAVY 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    40.9%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:19TLSA 4th & 7 at NAVY 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−3.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:10TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:08NAVY 4th & 1 at TLSA 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.6%−2.0
    87% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:17TLSA 4th & 5 at NAVY 6, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:08TLSA 4th & 5 at NAVY 29, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    55.1%−8.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:13TLSA 4th & 6 at TLSA 29, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:41NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.0%−4.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:26TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:25TLSA 4th & 11 at NAVY 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.8%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:42NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:18TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:39TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:17NAVY Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:23TLSA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:07NAVY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:30NAVY Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−1.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:10NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.3%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1151% → 53%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.1%
(14:59) No Huddle #26 M.Barrow rush right for 8 yards gain to the Navy33 (#5 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 14:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
51.2%
(14:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy36 (#6 C.Thompson Jr.; #9 D.Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
51.3%
(14:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Navy39 (#19 R.Leathers; #11 J.George)Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
51.5%
(13:26) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Navy44 (#32 H.Ball; #4 T.Williams)Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+56
52.5%
(12:50) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 56 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:42, 1ST DOWN #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:4547% → 48%
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
52.6%
(12:06) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa27 (#14 T.Gillis)Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
52.7%
(11:56) Shotgun #9 J.Ross rush left for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa35 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
52.8%
(11:39) Shotgun #2 O.Singleton rush right for 1 yard loss to the Tulsa34 (#58 C.Cauley; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+5
52.9%
(11:24) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa39 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
54.8%
(10:25) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #9 J.Ross for 0 yards to the Tulsa39 (#6 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+39
54.9%
(07:26) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep left to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy22, for 39 yards to the Navy22 (#6 P.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
53.8%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy20 (#56 M.Parker; #14 T.Gillis)Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+5
53.8%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #2 O.Singleton caught at Navy21, for 5 yards to the Navy15 (#56 M.Parker; #6 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+6
54.2%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Navy09 (#8 A.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
53.8%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy07 (#90 I.Ozurumba; #97 M.Reyes)Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
53.8%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Navy02 (#13 C.Robinson; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
54.3%
(07:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy01 (#58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.6%
(07:18) No Huddle #28 S.Morrison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 07:18 #10 O.Carey kick attempt good (H: #29 M.Tulen, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0152% → 52%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
52.4%
(06:38) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 3 yards gain to the Navy36 (#6 C.Thompson Jr.; #9 D.Collins)Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+2
52.7%
(06:20) Shotgun #15 E.Blouir rush right for 2 yards gain to the Navy38 (#19 R.Leathers)Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
52.6%
(05:31) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy42 (#6 C.Thompson Jr.; #9 D.Collins)Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
52.4%
(05:31) #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 0 yards to the Navy42 (#5 A.Williams), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4149% → 54%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
51.2%
(05:25) No Huddle #3 T.Jones rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy40 (#52 N.McCamy; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
51.3%
(05:02) No Huddle #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #9 J.Ross thrown to Navy39 broken up by #16 G.SessiSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+5
51.4%
(05:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #6 D.Alston caught at Navy43, for 5 yards to the Navy35 (#93 A.Lyczek; #6 P.Hamilton)Similar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
52.0%
(04:23) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Navy31, for 5 yards to the Navy30 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
50.9%
(03:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #6 D.Alston caught at Navy33, for 0 yards to the Navy30 (#52 N.McCamy; #95 G.Willis)Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+16
50.9%
(03:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #86 L.Tevis caught at Navy24, for 16 yards to the Navy14 (#16 G.Sessi), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
50.3%
(02:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #2 O.Singleton for 0 yards to the Navy14 (#13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+3
50.3%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy15, for 3 yards to the Navy10 (#53 M.Bleazard; #13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
45.8%
(01:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.Singleton pass complete short right to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Navy02, for 10 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:39, 1ST DOWN #10 O.Carey kick attempt good (H: #29 M.Tulen, LS: #42 A.Fedigan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1447% → 47%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.2%
(01:18) #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 3 yards gain to the Navy28 (#25 S.Stone; #5 A.Williams)Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
47.3%
(00:51) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 0 yards to the Navy28 fumbled by #8 J.Gutierrez at Navy27 recovered by Tulsa #2 D.Robinson at Navy28, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6FG
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:3055% → 55%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
45.1%
(00:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Alston thrown to Navy22Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
45.2%
(00:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep left to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to Navy00Similar
Q1 0:31
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+14
45.5%
(00:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy16, for 14 yards to the Navy14 (#16 G.Sessi; #52 N.McCamy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
44.8%
(00:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush right for 1 yard gain to the Navy13 (#93 A.Lyczek; #52 N.McCamy)Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
44.7%
(14:58) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush left for 2 yards gain to the Navy11 (#14 T.Gillis; #53 M.Bleazard)Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 7
OPP 11
0
44.9%
(14:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #6 D.Alston QB hurried by #93 A.LyczekSimilar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+30
45.1%
(14:19) #10 O.Carey field goal attempt from 30 yards GOOD (H: #29 M.Tulen, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 14:19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:3044% → 44%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
43.7%
(13:27) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Navy36 (#99 T.Newhouse; #6 C.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
43.6%
(13:05) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #26 M.Barrow caught at Navy43, for 9 yards to the Navy45 (#6 C.Thompson Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
44.1%
(12:48) #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 2 yards gain to the Navy47 (#9 D.Collins)Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
44.1%
(12:24) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa49 (#9 D.Collins)Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
43.5%
(11:47) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa43 (#19 R.Leathers; #9 D.Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
43.7%
(11:16) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa40 (#11 J.George; #10 A.Nash)Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+12
44.1%
(10:44) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 12 yards gain to the Tulsa28 (#19 R.Leathers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
44.8%
(10:26) Shotgun #23 C.Robinson rush right for 8 yards gain to the Tulsa20 (#25 S.Stone)Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+6
44.3%
(09:51) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa14 fumbled by #8 J.Gutierrez at Tulsa17 forced by #19 R.Leathers recovered by Tulsa #12 D.Scott at Tulsa14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 1:3157% → 58%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
43.4%
(09:45) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to Tulsa22Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-2
43.5%
(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush left for 2 yards loss to the Tulsa12 (#52 N.McCamy; #90 I.Ozurumba)Similar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+2
43.9%
(08:57) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa14 (#95 G.Willis; #3 I.Oniha)Similar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
42.5%
(08:21) #29 M.Tulen punt 39 yards to the Navy47 PENALTY Tulsa Kick Catch Interference (#12 D.Scott) 15 yards from Navy47 to Tulsa38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9FUMBLE
8 plays · 27 yds · 3:5843% → 42%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
43.0%
(08:09) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 0 yards to the Tulsa38 () (#32 H.Ball; #10 A.Nash)Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+13
42.9%
(07:35) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Tulsa20 (#4 T.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
42.7%
(07:05) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa16 (#9 D.Collins; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+4
42.5%
(06:33) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa12 (#32 H.Ball)Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+1
41.1%
(05:53) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa11 (#25 S.Stone)Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
39.8%
(05:15) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa09 (#88 D.Howard; #90 J.Madkins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
41.9%
(04:38) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa08 (#88 D.Howard; #25 S.Stone)Similar
Q2 3:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
41.6%
(04:00) #26 M.Barrow rush left for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa06 fumbled by #26 M.Barrow at Tulsa05 forced by #9 D.Collins recovered by Tulsa #9 D.Collins at Tulsa06, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
13 plays · 88 yds · 2:3461% → 73%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
39.0%
(03:54) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to Tulsa19 PENALTY Tulsa Personal Foul declinedSimilar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+6
39.2%
(03:50) Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 6 yards gain to the Tulsa12 (#13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+53
39.3%
(03:09) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Tulsa48, for 53 yards to the Navy35 (#3 I.Oniha), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
35.6%
(02:13) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Navy34, for 1 yard to the Navy34 (#16 G.Sessi), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+23
34.8%
(01:58) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep right to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy11, for 23 yards to the Navy11, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
34.3%
(01:30) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy13, for 2 yards to the Navy09 (#13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
33.1%
(01:25) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush right for 3 yards gain to the Navy06 (#58 C.Cauley; #16 G.Sessi)Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
32.9%
(01:22) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #9 J.Ross thrown to Navy00 broken up by #6 P.HamiltonSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
27.3%
(01:17) #10 O.Carey field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #29 M.Tulen, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 01:17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 0:4834% → 42%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
33.8%
(01:09) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 0 yards to the Navy28 (#10 A.Nash)Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
33.4%
(00:45) #26 M.Barrow rush left for 10 yards gain to the Navy38 (#19 R.Leathers; #5 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
34.2%
(00:33) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass incomplete short right to #23 C.Robinson thrown to Tulsa44Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
33.6%
(00:28) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #84 J.Collins caught at Navy42, for 4 yards to the Navy42, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+58
42.2%
Truman Brasfield 58 Yd pass from Jackson Gutierrez (Nolan Bartley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
40.6%
(00:16) Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 4 yards loss to the Tulsa21 (#95 G.Willis)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:3760% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
40.4%
(15:00) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short middle to #2 O.Singleton caught at Tulsa23, for 4 yards to the Tulsa29 (#58 C.Cauley; #93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
39.5%
(14:18) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa32 (#8 A.Rose; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+28
39.8%
(13:49) Shotgun #9 J.Ross rush left for 28 yards gain to the Navy40 (#16 G.Sessi), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
37.2%
(13:15) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Navy37 (#56 M.Parker)Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+6
36.6%
(12:32) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy31, for 6 yards to the Navy31 (#13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
36.9%
(11:57) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy29 (#8 A.Rose), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
35.8%
(11:18) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #0 D.Gee Jr. caught at Navy26, for 12 yards to the Navy17 (#13 C.Robinson), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY Navy Roughing The Passer (#52 N.McCamy) 9 yards from Navy17 to Navy08, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
35.6%
(10:59) Shotgun #3 T.Jones rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Navy03 (#16 G.Sessi; #99 C.Herock)Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
25.4%
(10:24) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #2 O.Singleton caught at Navy00, for 3 yards to the Navy00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:23 #10 B.Hayes pass attempt failedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0930% → 46%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
29.7%
(10:20) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 16 yards gain to the Navy41 (#4 T.Williams; #2 D.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
30.4%
(09:45) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 7 yards gain to the Navy48 (#9 D.Collins; #2 D.Robinson)Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+5
30.4%
(08:47) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa47 (#5 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
30.4%
(08:28) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa45 (#6 C.Thompson Jr.; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
30.2%
(08:02) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 11 yards gain to the Tulsa34 (#19 R.Leathers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
31.1%
(07:00) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa32 (#9 D.Collins; #58 T.Rich)Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
31.0%
(06:40) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Tulsa27 (#10 A.Nash; #20 R.McIntosh)Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+3
28.8%
(06:08) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa24 (#10 A.Nash; #15 T.Davis), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
29.9%
(05:32) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short right to #40 V.Listorti caught at Tulsa21, for 17 yards to the Tulsa07 (#27 Z.Woodham; #3 J.Drew), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
46.0%
(05:07) #23 C.Robinson rush right for 7 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:07 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt failed (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:4365% → 67%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+40
34.7%
(04:57) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep left to #2 O.Singleton caught at Navy35, for 40 yards to the Navy34, out of bounds at Navy34, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
31.0%
(04:38) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short right to #9 J.Ross caught at Navy31, for 3 yards to the Navy31, End Of PlaySimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
30.6%
(04:00) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete deep right to #9 J.Ross thrown to Navy00Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
31.6%
(03:46) Shotgun #4 D.McKinney rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy29 (#95 G.Willis; #58 C.Cauley)Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
33.4%
(03:08) #10 O.Carey field goal attempt from 47 yards NO GOOD (H: #29 M.Tulen, LS: #42 A.Fedigan), clock 03:08Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16INT
3 plays · 27 yds · 1:0339% → 43%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
39.1%
(03:03) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 6 yards gain to the Navy35 (#88 D.Howard; #0 K.Duhon)Similar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+21
41.1%
(02:37) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 21 yards gain to the Tulsa44 (#4 T.Williams; #5 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.3%
(01:56) #8 J.Gutierrez pass intercepted by #4 T.Williams at Tulsa14, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:3367% → 66%
Q3 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
33.0%
(01:54) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush middle for 11 yards gain to the Tulsa25 (#58 C.Cauley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.0%
(01:28) Shotgun #6 D.Alston rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa28 (#99 C.Herock; #22 M.Williams)Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
31.4%
(00:59) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes rush right for 1 yard gain to the Tulsa29 (#58 C.Cauley), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 0:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
32.0%
(00:19) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle thrown to Tulsa30 broken up by #95 G.WillisSimilar
Q3 0:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
34.2%
(00:17) #29 M.Tulen punt 33 yards to the Navy38, out of bounds at Navy38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18TD
15 plays · 62 yds · 6:4240% → 69%
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
39.5%
(00:12) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 5 yards gain to the Navy43 (#19 R.Leathers; #32 H.Ball)Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
41.8%
(14:53) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the Navy47 (#9 D.Collins)Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
41.1%
(14:25) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 0 yards to the Navy47 (#58 T.Rich; #10 A.Nash)Similar
Q4 13:41
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
39.3%
(13:48) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy49 (#10 A.Nash; #58 T.Rich), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
41.8%
(13:09) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush left for 1 yard gain to the Navy50 (#2 D.Robinson; #6 C.Thompson Jr.)Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 9
50
+18
41.9%
(12:33) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush right for 18 yards gain to the Tulsa32 (#19 R.Leathers; #16 C.Williford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
44.6%
(12:08) Shotgun #23 C.Robinson rush right for 1 yard loss to the Tulsa33 (#15 T.Davis), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+2
44.2%
(11:38) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa31 (#10 A.Nash; #9 D.Collins)Similar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+14
38.7%
(11:03) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 14 yards gain to the Tulsa17 (#11 J.George), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
40.9%
(10:20) #8 J.Gutierrez pass complete short left to #26 M.Barrow caught at Tulsa19, for 7 yards to the Tulsa10 (#5 A.Williams). #10 A.Nash injured on the playSimilar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
41.3%
(10:02) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa08 (#5 A.Williams; #11 J.George)Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+2
38.7%
(09:43) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa06 (#10 A.Nash; #9 D.Collins), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
41.1%
(09:09) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa04 (#19 R.Leathers; #27 Z.Woodham)Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
69.3%
(08:31) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0140% → 36%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.0%
(08:27) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle thrown to Tulsa23 broken up by #93 A.LyczekSimilar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.4%
(08:24) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete short left to #1 D.Wells Jr. caught at Tulsa30, for 5 yards to the Tulsa30 (#13 C.Robinson)Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
60.6%
PENALTY Tulsa False Start (#52 I.Mayes) 5 yards from Tulsa30 to Tulsa25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
62.3%
(07:43) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short right to #2 O.Singleton thrown to Tulsa40 QB hurried by #7 K.AbrahamSimilar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
64.3%
(07:35) #29 M.Tulen punt 47 yards to the Navy28 #23 C.Robinson return 10 yards to the Navy38 (#22 T.Williams) PENALTY Navy Holding (#29 G.Leonard) 10 yards from Navy28 to Navy18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
18 plays · 82 yds · 6:0964% → 98%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
63.5%
(07:24) #40 V.Listorti rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Navy22 (#10 A.Nash; #4 T.Williams)Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+13
63.8%
(06:48) Shotgun #40 V.Listorti rush left for 13 yards gain to the Navy35, End Of Play, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
64.6%
(06:07) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 13 yards gain to the Navy48 (#5 A.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
68.6%
(05:28) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 2 yards gain to the Navy50 (#25 S.Stone)Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
50
+18
69.1%
(04:51) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 18 yards gain to the Tulsa32 (#32 H.Ball), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
71.4%
(04:06) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa28 (#90 J.Madkins)Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+4
74.2%
(03:21) Shotgun #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa24 (#5 A.Williams)Similar
Q4 2:32
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+3
72.5%
(02:38) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa21 (#11 J.George; #27 Z.Woodham), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
76.9%
(02:23) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa18 (#4 T.Williams; #90 J.Madkins)Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+9
77.8%
(02:15) Shotgun #26 M.Barrow rush left for 9 yards gain to the Tulsa09 (#5 A.Williams; #16 C.Williford), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
80.0%
(01:57) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa05 (#32 H.Ball)Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
80.1%
(01:54) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 2 yards gain to the Tulsa03, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
(01:11) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:365% → 5%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
95.2%
(01:06) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass complete deep middle to #2 O.Singleton caught at Navy49, for 29 yards to the Navy46 (#7 K.Abraham; #22 M.Williams), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
93.4%
(00:55) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to Navy31Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
93.9%
(00:52) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes sacked for loss of 1 yard to the Navy47 (#96 C.Young, #93 A.Lyczek)Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
94.7%
(00:33) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short left to #1 D.Wells Jr. thrown to Navy37Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
95.2%
(00:29) Shotgun #10 B.Hayes pass incomplete short middle to #2 O.Singleton thrown to Navy28 broken up by #22 M.Williams QB hurried by #58 C.Cauley, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-2
98.7%
(00:18) Kneel down by Navy at Navy45 for loss of 2 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:30
(08:31) #8 J.Gutierrez rush right for 4 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
+28.2
TD · Q3 5:07
(05:07) #23 C.Robinson rush right for 7 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:07 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt failed (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
+16.1
TD · Q4 1:10
(01:11) #8 J.Gutierrez rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Tulsa00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:10 #44 N.Bartley kick attempt good (H: #11 J.Carlson, LS: #92 R.Fry)
+13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com