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USF

South Florida 24 at UTSA 31

UTSA
2026 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2026 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:51 · (09:01) #39 L.Goater punt 50 yards to the UTSA25 #0 D.Amador II return 5 yards to the UTSA30 (#4 M.Williams II), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Illegal Block in Back (#18 A.Chapman) 10 yards from UTSA26 to UTSA16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.5+14.30−14.3−28.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 1:58: (01:59) #7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 01:58 — USF win probability +6.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:28: A'Marion Peterson 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick) — UTSA win probability +11.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 8:21: (08:21) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 08:21 — UTSA win probability +9.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:56: (01:59) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #5 D.Crowther caught at UTSA06, for 11 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) PENALTY #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) PENALTY UTSA Offside declined — USF win probability +50.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:15: A'Marion Peterson 1 Yd Run (Owen McCown Pass to David Amador II for Two-Point Conversion) — UTSA win probability +44.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 8:37UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:24USF 4th & 11 at USF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:53USF 4th & 2 at UTSA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    36.2%−0.9
    25% to make
    Punt
    36.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:53UTSA 4th & 4 at USF 8, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.5%−0.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:51USF 4th & 9 at USF 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:16UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:44USF 4th & 1 at UTSA 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.3%−2.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−2.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:58USF 4th & 6 at UTSA 6, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.4%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:32UTSA 4th & 2 at USF 31, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.9%−0.2
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:09USF 4th & 4 at USF 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:02USF 4th & 10 at USF 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−2.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:04UTSA 4th & 2 at USF 23, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%−1.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.2%−11.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:06USF 4th & 7 at USF 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:21UTSA 4th & 6 at USF 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−17.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:27USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:13UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:11USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:28UTSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    60.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:56USF Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−2.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:15UTSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.7%−1.4
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    83.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2229% → 32%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
71.1%
(14:59) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #47 E.Dangler caught at USF39, for 11 yards to the USF46 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
71.0%
(14:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UTSA48 (#0 J.Bailey; #14 J.Rogers)Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+4
70.8%
(13:59) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #5 D.Crowther caught at UTSA48, for 4 yards to the UTSA44 (#17 A.Chapman), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
70.7%
(13:17) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA44 (#15 D.White)Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
70.5%
(12:39) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #6 M.Reuben caught at UTSA34, for 14 yards to the UTSA30 (#17 A.Chapman; #26 B.Grays), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
70.3%
(12:00) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to UTSA00Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
70.2%
(11:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 9 yards gain to the UTSA21 (#91 J.Sampleton)Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
70.2%
(11:30) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA19 (#14 J.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
69.8%
(10:55) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #0 C.Seldon caught at UTSA24, for 4 yards to the UTSA15 (#34 J.Walley Jr.)Similar
Q1 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
68.4%
(10:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 15 yards gain to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:27, 1ST DOWN #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3969% → 68%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
68.8%
(10:25) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA23, for 2 yards to the UTSA27 (#0 G.Howard)Similar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
68.8%
(10:02) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTSA31 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q1 9:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
68.3%
(09:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA34, for 3 yards to the UTSA34 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
67.9%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (#66 D.Hurth) 5 yards from UTSA34 to UTSA29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 8:37
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
67.5%
(08:42) #30 C.Hogan punt 46 yards to the USF25 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 3:0632% → 34%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.6%
(08:36) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF33 (#15 D.White; #14 J.Rogers)Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
67.0%
(08:02) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the USF34 (#22 E.Newell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
66.8%
PENALTY USF False Start (#61 J.Tate) 5 yards from USF34 to USF29. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
66.7%
(07:03) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF30, for 6 yards to the USF35 (#26 B.Grays), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
66.2%
(06:27) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF40 QB hurried by #2 O.PeweeSimilar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
66.2%
(06:24) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF44, for 9 yards to the USF44, End Of PlaySimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+10
65.6%
(06:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF46 (#91 J.Sampleton; #11 C.Upshaw Jr.) PENALTY USF Holding (#47 E.Dangler) 10 yards from USF44 to USF34. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
66.1%
(05:33) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #0 C.Seldon thrown to UTSA45Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
66.3%
(05:29) #39 L.Goater punt 44 yards to the UTSA22 fair catch by #0 D.Amador II at UTSA22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 1:5966% → 70%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
66.0%
(05:23) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA22, for 0 yards to the UTSA22 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+10
65.8%
(04:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 4 yards gain to the UTSA26 (#0 G.Howard) PENALTY UTSA Holding (#0 D.Amador II) 10 yards from UTSA22 to UTSA12. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+27
65.6%
(04:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #84 A.Wilson caught at UTSA30, for 27 yards to the UTSA39 (#15 T.Beasley), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
65.9%
(04:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA42 (#31 J.Murphy; #2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
66.1%
(03:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA46, for 5 yards to the UTSA47 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+53
69.6%
(03:13) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 53 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:13, 1ST DOWN #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #67 J.Stephens III) #92 M.Petro kick attempt good (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5731% → 39%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.7%
(03:12) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 7 yards gain to the USF32 (#32 E.Baldwin) PENALTY UTSA Face Mask (#32 E.Baldwin) 15 yards from USF32 to USF47, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
67.7%
(02:48) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the UTSA47 (#17 A.Chapman; #14 J.Rogers)Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
66.8%
(02:09) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the UTSA47 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+2
67.2%
(01:45) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA45 (#98 J.Buxton)Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+3
67.6%
(00:59) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 3 yards gain to the UTSA42 (#34 J.Walley Jr.; #53 E.Osondu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
61.5%
Bryson Rodgers 42 Yd pass from Michael Van Buren Jr. (Nico Gramatica Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG
16 plays · 67 yds · 5:1663% → 65%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
63.3%
(00:09) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #89 B.Young Jr. caught at UTSA28, for 6 yards to the UTSA31 (#25 Z.Hamilton), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
63.8%
(14:59) Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 8 yards gain to the UTSA39 (#9 I.Boyce; #0 G.Howard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+25
63.3%
(14:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #89 B.Young Jr. caught at USF46, for 25 yards to the USF36 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
64.3%
(13:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the USF36 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
64.0%
(13:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #89 B.Young Jr. thrown to USF28Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
63.4%
(13:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to USF15 PENALTY USF Offside (#1 C.Hicks) 5 yards from USF36 to USF31. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
63.9%
(13:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush right for 6 yards gain to the USF25 (#2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
64.5%
(12:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush right for 3 yards gain to the USF22 (#2 T.Ward; #16 T.Foster)Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
64.2%
(11:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USF19 (#77 M.Dillard)Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+5
63.1%
(11:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF14 (#33 A.Mosley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
63.9%
(11:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush left for 2 yards loss to the USF16 (#18 L.Smiley)Similar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 12
OPP 16
+8
63.6%
(10:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #84 A.Wilson caught at USF13, for 8 yards to the USF08 (#12 J.Smith)Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 4
OPP 8
0
62.1%
(09:57) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #84 A.Wilson thrown to USF00Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+26
65.4%
(09:55) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 26 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 09:53Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5137% → 35%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
63.5%
(09:46) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF25 (#98 J.Buxton)Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
63.6%
(09:10) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to USF35Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
64.0%
(09:06) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF29Similar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+1
64.7%
(09:01) #39 L.Goater punt 50 yards to the UTSA25 #0 D.Amador II return 5 yards to the UTSA30 (#4 M.Williams II), out of bounds PENALTY UTSA Illegal Block in Back (#18 A.Chapman) 10 yards from UTSA26 to UTSA16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2864% → 60%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
63.6%
(08:50) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA21 (#2 T.Ward; #7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+12
63.8%
(08:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA20, for 12 yards to the UTSA33 (#12 J.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
62.8%
PENALTY UTSA False Start (#66 D.Hurth) 5 yards from UTSA33 to UTSA28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
62.3%
(07:38) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #0 D.Amador II thrown to UTSA41Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
62.0%
(07:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete deep left to #15 D.Allen thrown to USF31 QB hurried by #18 L.SmileySimilar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 15
OWN 28
0
60.3%
(07:27) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short right to #28 A.Peterson thrown to UTSA30 QB hurried by #45 M.OxleySimilar
Q2 7:16
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
59.8%
(07:21) #30 C.Hogan punt 38 yards to the USF34 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 4:4940% → 53%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
59.9%
(07:15) Shotgun South Fla. rush middle for 6 yards loss to the USF28 fumbled by South Fla. at USF34 recovered by USF #3 M.Van Buren Jr. at USF28, End Of PlaySimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+6
61.2%
(06:38) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 C.Seldon caught at USF25, for 6 yards to the USF34 (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.; #22 E.Newell) PENALTY UTSA Targeting (#23 B.Tucker, Jr.) 15 yards from USF34 to USF49, 1ST DOWN. UTSA #23 B.Tucker, Jr. has been disqualified. #0 C.Seldon injured on the playSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
58.4%
(06:11) Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTSA47 (#11 C.Upshaw Jr.)Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OPP 47
0
58.0%
(05:35) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #87 L.Clyburn thrown to UTSA45 QB hurried by #32 E.BaldwinSimilar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
58.3%
(05:32) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #80 J.Porter caught at UTSA48, for 5 yards to the UTSA42 (#17 A.Chapman; #2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
58.9%
(04:51) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA40 (#0 J.Bailey), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
56.9%
(04:10) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 12 yards gain to the UTSA28 (#13 R.Lester), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
56.1%
(03:47) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #8 W.Sullivan caught at UTSA25, for 20 yards to the UTSA08 (#11 C.Upshaw Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
54.6%
(03:03) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA06 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.9%
(02:17) Shotgun #17 L.Kromenhoek pass incomplete short right to #6 M.Reuben thrown to UTSA00Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
54.4%
(02:12) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 0 yards to the UTSA06 (#53 E.Osondu)Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
46.9%
(01:59) #7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 01:58Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 1:1752% → 54%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.3%
(01:56) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #89 B.Young Jr. caught at UTSA23, for 3 yards to the UTSA28 (#31 J.Murphy)Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
52.5%
(01:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA38, for 14 yards to the UTSA42 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
54.0%
(01:27) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 19 yards gain to the USF39 (#2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
55.5%
(01:19) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #0 D.Amador II caught at USF38, for 7 yards to the USF32 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+1
57.3%
(01:01) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF31 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
55.3%
(00:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #89 B.Young Jr. thrown to USF27 QB hurried by #33 A.MosleySimilar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 2
OPP 31
-4
54.4%
(00:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown sacked for loss of 4 yards to the USF35 (#5 A.Jackson), TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1851% → 49%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.3%
(00:31) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Collins Jr. thrown to USF35 QB hurried by #0 J.BaileySimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
49.7%
(00:26) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #2 J.Collins Jr. thrown to USF35Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
50.3%
(00:22) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USF41 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
50.8%
(00:15) #39 L.Goater punt 45 yards to the UTSA14 fair catch by #0 D.Amador II at UTSA14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
50.1%
(00:07) Kneel down by #2 O.McCown at UTSA13 for loss of 1 yardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2251% → 69%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
50.5%
(14:59) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 11 yards gain to the UTSA36 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
50.8%
(14:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 M.Anderson rush left for 30 yards gain to the USF34 (#8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
54.7%
(13:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #0 D.Amador II caught at USF30, for 6 yards to the USF28 (#8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+14
54.0%
(12:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #19 T.West caught at USF16, for 14 yards to the USF14 (#16 T.Foster; #2 T.Ward), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
53.5%
(12:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush left for 9 yards gain to the USF05 (#0 G.Howard), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+2
53.2%
(11:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 2 yards gain to the USF03 (#25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
56.6%
(11:01) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 0 yards to the USF03 (#7 S.Robinson; #9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
68.5%
A'Marion Peterson 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1239% → 38%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
61.1%
(10:27) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF30 (#91 J.Sampleton)Similar
Q3 9:40
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
60.1%
(09:49) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #6 M.Reuben caught at USF35, for 7 yards to the USF37 (#14 J.Rogers), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-4
59.8%
(09:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 4 yards loss to the USF33 (#1 C.Cooper)Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
61.1%
(08:53) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #5 D.Crowther thrown to USF43 QB hurried by #0 J.BaileySimilar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+4
62.3%
(08:47) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF37 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q3 8:02
4TH & 10
OWN 37
-2
62.4%
(08:11) #39 L.Goater punt 48 yards to the UTSA15 #0 D.Amador II return for loss of 2 yards to the UTSA13 (#13 M.Ziglar)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 5:4863% → 70%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
63.2%
(07:59) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA20, for 9 yards to the UTSA22 (#5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q3 7:34
2ND & 1
OWN 22
-6
63.9%
(07:40) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown sacked for loss of 6 yards to the UTSA16 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+15
61.2%
(06:55) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #14 M.Anderson caught at UTSA15, for 15 yards to the UTSA31 (#5 A.Jackson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
63.7%
(06:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #1 W.Henderson III caught at UTSA30, for 15 yards to the UTSA46 (#31 J.Murphy), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
66.3%
(05:51) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 3 yards gain to the UTSA49 (#0 G.Howard; #9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
66.6%
(05:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 D.Amador II pass incomplete short right to #14 M.Anderson thrown to USF39 QB hurried by #4 M.Williams II. #2 T.Ward injured on the playSimilar
Q3 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+9
64.9%
(05:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 W.Henderson III caught at UTSA43, for 9 yards to the USF42 (#5 A.Jackson), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
66.7%
(04:35) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF34 (#16 T.Foster)Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+3
67.7%
(03:54) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush left for 3 yards gain to the USF31 (#0 G.Howard), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
67.7%
(03:20) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 B.High Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the USF30 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+7
67.5%
(02:50) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #13 J.Hardy caught at USF24, for 7 yards to the USF23 (#12 J.Smith)Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
65.9%
(02:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #81 M.Campbell thrown to USF14 QB hurried by #4 M.Williams IISimilar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+41
69.9%
(02:07) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 41 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 02:04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5331% → 29%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.1%
(02:03) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to UTSA45 QB hurried by #0 J.BaileySimilar
Q3 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.4%
(01:58) #5 D.Crowther rush right for 3 yards gain to the USF28 (#2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
70.1%
(01:17) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to UTSA45Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
71.1%
(01:11) #39 L.Goater punt 42 yards to the UTSA30, out of bounds at UTSA30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 7:3469% → 86%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
68.9%
(01:05) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 4 yards gain to the UTSA34 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+16
70.0%
(00:31) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short middle to #0 D.Amador II caught at UTSA33, for 16 yards to the UTSA50 (#1 C.Hicks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
50
+7
72.2%
(14:59) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush left for 7 yards gain to the USF43 (#1 C.Hicks). #1 C.Hicks injured on the playSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+1
75.8%
(14:25) Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short left to #86 I.Butler-Tanner caught at USF43, for 1 yard to the USF42 (#33 A.Mosley)Similar
Q4 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+3
75.2%
(13:48) Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USF39 (#9 I.Boyce), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
76.0%
(13:14) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 5 yards gain to the USF34 (#7 S.Robinson)Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
77.0%
(12:37) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USF28 (#11 A.Redwood; #45 M.Oxley), 1ST DOWN. #4 M.Williams II injured on the playSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
77.0%
(11:46) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 9 yards gain to the USF19 (#0 G.Howard)Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+2
77.1%
(11:05) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF17 (#7 S.Robinson), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
78.0%
(10:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF13 (#8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+1
78.2%
(09:48) No Huddle-Shotgun #28 A.Peterson rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF12 (#56 T.Simmons Jr.)Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 5
OPP 12
-1
76.8%
(09:08) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 1 yard loss to the USF13 (#33 A.Mosley)Similar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
85.8%
(08:21) #92 M.Petro field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD (H: #30 C.Hogan, LS: #60 W.Hodges), clock 08:21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:1923% → 76%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
77.3%
(08:20) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF29 (#14 J.Rogers; #13 R.Lester)Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
76.5%
(07:39) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF33, for 8 yards to the USF37 (#22 E.Newell), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
76.3%
(07:01) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 2 yards loss to the USF35 (#95 D.Fite III)Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+13
77.9%
(06:23) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to USF45 QB hurried by #0 J.Bailey PENALTY UTSA Pass Interference (#26 B.Grays) 13 yards from USF35 to USF48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
73.1%
(06:15) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 0 yards to the USF48 (#91 J.Sampleton; #2 O.Pewee)Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
75.2%
(05:36) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF48, for 11 yards to the UTSA41 (#18 A.Chapman), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
72.9%
(05:13) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #6 R.Hill thrown to UTSA05Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
73.1%
(05:07) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA39 (#53 E.Osondu)Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+8
74.0%
(04:22) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 8 yards gain to the UTSA31 (#22 E.Newell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
70.6%
(03:40) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 9 yards gain to the UTSA22 (#14 J.Rogers; #13 R.Lester)Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+14
70.6%
(02:52) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #2 J.Collins Jr. caught at UTSA25, for 14 yards to the UTSA08 (#2 O.Pewee), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
70.4%
(02:19) Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UTSA06 (#26 B.Grays)Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
67.1%
PENALTY USF False Start (#87 L.Clyburn) 5 yards from UTSA06 to UTSA11. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
24.2%
(01:59) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #5 D.Crowther caught at UTSA06, for 11 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) PENALTY #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) PENALTY UTSA Offside declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 1:3647% → 97%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.4%
(01:55) Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 5 yards gain to the UTSA30 (#33 A.Mosley; #5 A.Jackson)Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
47.9%
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #84 A.Wilson thrown to UTSA35Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
43.7%
(01:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush right for 19 yards gain to the UTSA49 (#12 J.Smith), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
52.0%
(01:21) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass incomplete short left to #1 W.Henderson III thrown to UTSA50 QB hurried by #4 M.Williams IISimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
50.4%
(01:16) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 7 yards gain to the USF44 (#9 I.Boyce), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
48.3%
(01:10) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF40 (#18 L.Smiley), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
49.6%
(00:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF32 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
54.7%
(00:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #0 D.Amador II caught at USF30, for 5 yards to the USF27 (#16 T.Foster), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+26
52.3%
(00:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 W.Henderson III rush right for 26 yards gain to the USF01 (#16 T.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
A'Marion Peterson 1 Yd Run (Owen McCown Pass to David Amador II for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:1011% → 8%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
89.3%
(00:14) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 M.Reuben caught at USF50, for 22 yards to the UTSA45 (#20 Z.Morris) PENALTY USF Holding (#79 E.Green) 10 yards from USF33 to USF23. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 20
OWN 23
0
92.7%
(00:08) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #8 W.Sullivan thrown to USF30 QB hurried by #34 J.Walley Jr.Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+5
92.5%
(00:04) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short middle to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF30, for 5 yards to the USF28 (#24 W.Nelson)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:56
(01:59) Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #5 D.Crowther caught at UTSA06, for 11 yards to the UTSA00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:56 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) PENALTY #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) PENALTY UTSA Offside declined
-50.4
TD · Q4 0:15
A'Marion Peterson 1 Yd Run (Owen McCown Pass to David Amador II for Two-Point Conversion)
+44.4
TD · Q3 10:28
A'Marion Peterson 3 Yd Run (Michael Petro Kick)
+11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com