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TEM

Temple 17 at South Florida 13

USF
2026 · Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:01 · #7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 08:01
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differential
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Home team on offense+0.7Pregame prior+7.6Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score differential−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:45: JoJo Bermudez 24 Yd pass from Ajani Sheppard (Carl Hardin Kick) — TEM win probability +12.8 pts (now 59%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:33: #5 D.Crowther rush left for 1 yard gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:33 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett) — USF win probability +15.6 pts (now 65%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:08: Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 34 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #97 S.Wolfenden) — TEM win probability +57.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01: Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the USF37 (#28 R.Jenkins) — TEM win probability +19.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  5. PUNT · Q4 0:51: #7 D.Atton punt 27 yards to the USF10, out of bounds at USF10 — TEM win probability +17.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:55TEM 4th & 11 at TEM 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:06USF 4th & 6 at TEM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:40TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:34USF 4th & 15 at USF 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16TEM 4th & 12 at USF 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.8
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:05USF 4th & 1 at USF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.0%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01USF 4th & 14 at TEM 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    61.8%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:44TEM 4th & 15 at TEM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:22USF 4th & 20 at USF 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−2.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:51USF 4th & 6 at TEM 31, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.3%−0.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.5%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:14TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:32USF 4th & 7 at USF 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−2.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:47USF 4th & 8 at USF 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.9%−4.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:51TEM 4th & 5 at USF 37, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    87.5%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−2.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 0:45TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:33USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:08TEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:0538% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.1%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 0 yards to the TEM25 (#77 M.Dillard; #0 G.Howard)Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.1%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush left for 5 yards gain to the TEM30 (#25 Z.Hamilton; #9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
62.1%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TEM24 (#11 A.Redwood)Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
62.2%
#7 D.Atton punt 44 yards to the USF32 #80 J.Porter return 3 yards to the USF35 (#89 Z.Baptiste)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2FG
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:4962% → 63%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
62.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at TEM50, for 17 yards to the TEM48 (#29 A.Powell), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
62.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 2 yards gain to the TEM46 (#33 C.Ordonez; #30 J.Brown)Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+25
62.3%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 M.Reuben caught at TEM39, for 25 yards to the TEM21 (#22 J.Gould), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
62.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #6 M.Reuben caught at TEM26, for 1 yard to the TEM20 (#29 A.Powell), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+4
62.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 4 yards gain to the TEM16 (#30 J.Brown)Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-1
62.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard loss to the TEM17 (#2 S.Karriem)Similar
Q1 9:06
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
62.8%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 35 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 09:06Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2637% → 37%
Q1 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass incomplete short right to #26 K.Mason thrown to TEM20Similar
Q1 9:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.7%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short left to #1 C.Chase caught at TEM30, for 5 yards to the TEM30 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
62.7%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short right to #17 J.Bermudez caught at TEM29, for 0 yards to the TEM30 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
63.2%
#7 D.Atton punt 47 yards to the USF23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 2:0663% → 62%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
62.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to USF30 QB hurried by #23 Z.PowellSimilar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
62.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF27 (#2 S.Karriem; #30 J.Brown)Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
62.2%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF36, for 11 yards to the USF38 (#21 A.Locks) PENALTY USF Pass Interference (#0 C.Seldon) 10 yards from USF27 to USF17. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+6
62.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 6 yards gain to the USF23 (#36 W.Brown), out of boundsSimilar
Q1 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 23
+5
61.9%
PENALTY USF False Start (#12 J.Alexis) 5 yards from USF23 to USF18. NO PLAYSimilar
Q1 5:34
4TH & 15
OWN 18
0
61.8%
#39 L.Goater punt 52 yards to the TEM30 #17 J.Bermudez return 0 yards to the TEM30 (#13 M.Ziglar)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 6:1837% → 39%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
62.8%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEM34 (#9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
62.6%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEM37 (#9 I.Boyce; #28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
62.6%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEM40 (#9 I.Boyce; #0 G.Howard), 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "First down". CALL UPHELDSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
62.3%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short left to #0 P.Clarke caught at USF45, for 23 yards to the USF37 (#0 G.Howard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
62.0%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass incomplete deep left to #17 J.Bermudez thrown to USF10Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+12
62.0%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush left for 12 yards gain to the USF25 (#0 G.Howard; #25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
61.6%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short left to #18 J.Schlaffer caught at USF15, for 11 yards to the USF14 (#1 C.Hicks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-6
61.5%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short right to #17 J.Bermudez caught at USF18, for 6 yards loss to the USF20 (#15 T.Beasley)Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+2
61.8%
Shotgun #17 J.Bermudez rush right for 2 yards gain to the USF18 (#8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 18
+2
62.2%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush right for 2 yards gain to the USF16 (#0 G.Howard), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
60.6%
#98 C.Hardin field goal attempt from 34 yards GOOD (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #97 S.Wolfenden), clock 14:16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6MISSED FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 6:1562% → 60%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.5%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 3 yards gain to the USF28 (#56 J.Diaz)Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
61.7%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 3 yards loss to the USF25 (#56 J.Diaz)Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.6%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass intercepted by #2 S.Karriem at USF30 #2 S.Karriem return 30 yards to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:05 PENALTY TEM Offside (#10 J.Joseph) 5 yards from USF25 to USF30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
61.1%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 5 yards gain to the USF35 (#2 S.Karriem; #52 R.Sykes), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.7%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the USF35 (#58 K.Artis)Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
61.6%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the USF38 (#33 C.Ordonez)Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
61.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF41, for 6 yards to the USF44 (#32 A.Laing)Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
61.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 2 yards gain to the USF46 (#44 T.Alualu), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
63.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep left to #0 C.Seldon caught at TEM29, for 25 yards to the TEM29 (#33 C.Ordonez), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
63.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TEM28 (#95 T.Cunningham)Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
63.7%
PENALTY USF Encroachment (#1 B.Rodgers) 5 yards from TEM28 to TEM33. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 14
OPP 33
0
62.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep right to #80 J.Porter thrown to TEM00Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
62.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short middle to #6 M.Reuben thrown to TEM18 broken up by #2 S.KarriemSimilar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 14
OPP 33
+52
60.2%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 52 yards NO GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 08:01Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:1742% → 40%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
58.2%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEM37 (#56 T.Simmons Jr.)Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-4
57.5%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short right to #26 K.Mason caught at TEM31, for 4 yards loss to the TEM33 (#0 G.Howard)Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
59.5%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush left for 0 yards to the TEM33 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+5
60.1%
PENALTY TEM Illegal Snap (#97 S.Wolfenden) 5 yards from TEM33 to TEM28. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
60.1%
#7 D.Atton punt 37 yards to the USF35, out of bounds at USF35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:2262% → 59%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
61.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right thrown to USF32Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
61.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to USF36Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
60.2%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF48 QB hurried by #99 C.JonesSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.5%
PENALTY USF False Start (#23 C.Hawkins Jr.) 5 yards from USF35 to USF30. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+5
59.2%
PENALTY USF False Start (#12 J.Alexis) 5 yards from USF30 to USF25. NO PLAYSimilar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 20
OWN 25
0
59.2%
#39 L.Goater punt 30 yards to the TEM45, out of bounds at TEM45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD
11 plays · 55 yds · 4:3744% → 59%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
56.2%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 0 yards to the TEM45 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+2
57.1%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush right for 2 yards gain to the TEM47 (#1 C.Hicks), out of boundsSimilar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+8
57.7%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 8 yards gain to the USF45 (#0 G.Howard), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
56.0%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 6 yards gain to the USF39 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
55.9%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush right for 4 yards gain to the USF35 (#8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
53.3%
Shotgun #21 D.Young rush right for 0 yards to the USF35 (#1 C.Hicks)Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
53.3%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush right for 11 yards gain to the USF24 (#9 I.Boyce; #8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
40.6%
JoJo Bermudez 24 Yd pass from Ajani Sheppard (Carl Hardin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10END OF HALF
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
46.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 8 yards gain to the USF18 (#36 W.Brown)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:2745% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.3%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 4 yards gain to the USF29 (#93 K.Hornbeak)Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
45.8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF39, for 10 yards to the USF39, out of bounds at USF39, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
46.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
46.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #5 D.Crowther caught at USF34, for 7 yards to the USF46 (#33 C.Ordonez)Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
46.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF44, for 8 yards to the TEM46 (#25 O.Gray), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
47.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 2 yards gain to the TEM44 (#33 C.Ordonez; #30 J.Brown)Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
47.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 6 yards gain to the TEM38 (#13 D.Chavis; #33 C.Ordonez)Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+4
47.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEM34 (#25 O.Gray; #2 S.Karriem), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
48.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #0 C.Seldon caught at TEM35, for 9 yards to the TEM25 (#15 J.Montgomery), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 1
OPP 25
0
48.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #80 J.Porter thrown to TEM00Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
47.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 3 yards gain to the TEM22 (#93 K.Hornbeak; #22 J.Gould), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
48.9%
Shotgun #2 J.Collins Jr. rush left for 21 yards gain to the TEM01 (#30 J.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.9%
#3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #85 K.Caton thrown to TEM00Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.5%
#5 D.Crowther rush left for 1 yard gain to the TEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:33 #7 N.Gramatica kick attempt good (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12FUMBLE
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2544% → 50%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
56.1%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush left for 3 yards gain to the TEM28 (#0 G.Howard)Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
55.5%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TEM21 (#4 M.Williams II)Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+29
58.3%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete deep left to #10 J.Freeman caught at TEM50, for 29 yards to the TEM50, out of bounds at TEM50, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
50
+34
52.0%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 34 yards gain to the USF16 (#8 A.Fortenberry), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
50.0%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush left for 2 yards gain to the USF14 (#8 A.Fortenberry)Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
50.0%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the USF14 (#4 M.Williams II; #28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+14
50.5%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush left for 14 yards gain to the USF00 fumbled by #13 A.Sheppard at USF04 forced by #8 A.Fortenberry recovered by USF #1 C.Hicks at USF00, TouchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13FG
13 plays · 49 yds · 6:1759% → 71%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.9%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 0 yards to the USF20 (#23 Z.Powell; #33 C.Ordonez)Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.7%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 3 yards gain to the USF23 (#23 Z.Powell)Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+19
57.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #0 C.Seldon caught at USF25, for 19 yards to the USF42 (#32 A.Laing), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
62.1%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF45Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
60.7%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #2 J.Collins Jr. caught at USF42, for 7 yards to the USF49 (#33 C.Ordonez), out of boundsSimilar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+4
62.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 4 yards gain to the TEM47 (#33 C.Ordonez), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
63.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush middle for 1 yard gain to the TEM46 (#58 K.Artis; #97 D.Bishop)Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+11
63.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #1 B.Rodgers caught at TEM35, for 11 yards to the TEM35 (#24 J.Pierre), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
65.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 5 yards gain to the TEM30 (#23 Z.Powell; #88 L.Fairfax Jr)Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
65.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush middle for 0 yards to the TEM30 (#93 K.Hornbeak; #88 L.Fairfax Jr)Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 30
-1
63.6%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #2 J.Collins Jr. caught at TEM35, for 1 yard loss to the TEM31 (#2 S.Karriem)Similar
Q4 12:51
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
71.2%
#7 N.Gramatica field goal attempt from 49 yards GOOD (H: #39 L.Goater, LS: #49 E.Bonnett), clock 12:51Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3732% → 29%
Q4 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.4%
Shotgun #17 J.Bermudez rush right for 3 yards gain to the TEM28 (#2 T.Ward), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
67.7%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 2 yards gain to the TEM30 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
68.6%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass incomplete deep right to #1 C.Chase thrown to USF40Similar
Q4 11:14
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.1%
#7 D.Atton punt 45 yards to the USF25 fair catch by #80 J.Porter at USF25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4271% → 74%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.8%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 5 yards gain to the USF30 (#99 C.Jones; #2 S.Karriem)Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
71.4%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #1 B.Rodgers caught at USF26, for 7 yards to the USF37 (#2 S.Karriem), out of bounds, 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
72.1%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 1 yard gain to the USF38 (#58 K.Artis; #33 C.Ordonez)Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-1
72.0%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. sacked for loss of 1 yard to the USF37 (#10 J.Joseph)Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+3
69.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush left for 3 yards gain to the USF40 (#14 N.Lawrence)Similar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
73.5%
#39 L.Goater punt 56 yards to the TEM04Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 16TD
13 plays · 96 yds · 5:3327% → 85%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+15
73.0%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass incomplete deep left to #1 C.Chase thrown to TEM35 PENALTY USF Holding declined USF Pass Interference (#16 T.Foster) 15 yards from TEM04 to TEM19, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
72.0%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 7 yards gain to the TEM26 (#2 T.Ward)Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+12
70.8%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 12 yards gain to the TEM38 (#16 T.Foster), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
70.0%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush right for 1 yard gain to the TEM39 (#77 M.Dillard)Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
75.7%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass incomplete deep left to #10 J.Freeman thrown to USF40 broken up by #8 A.FortenberrySimilar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+10
76.8%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass complete short middle to #10 J.Freeman caught at TEM48, for 10 yards to the TEM49 (#35 H.Perry Jr.), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
73.2%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush right for 8 yards gain to the USF43 (#15 T.Beasley), out of boundsSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
71.4%
Shotgun #26 K.Mason rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USF42 (#1 C.Hicks; #0 G.Howard)Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+5
72.5%
PENALTY USF Offside (#28 R.Jenkins) 5 yards from USF42 to USF37, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
71.4%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard pass incomplete deep middle to #17 J.Bermudez thrown to USF00 broken up by #8 A.FortenberrySimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
71.6%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush right for 3 yards gain to the USF34 (#25 Z.Hamilton)Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+34
14.6%
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 34 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #97 S.Wolfenden)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:2130% → 23%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.4%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush right for 15 yards gain to the USF40 (#2 S.Karriem), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
33.6%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 3 yards loss to the USF37, End Of PlaySimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+5
30.2%
Shotgun #5 D.Crowther rush left for 5 yards gain to the USF42 (#99 C.Jones)Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
24.6%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short right to #5 D.Crowther thrown to USF40Similar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
23.0%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep middle to #6 M.Reuben thrown to TEM28, TURNOVER ON DOWNSSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5692% → 95%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
7.8%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush right for 1 yard gain to the USF41 (#9 I.Boyce)Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
7.9%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 4 yards gain to the USF37 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
5.1%
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the USF37 (#28 R.Jenkins)Similar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
4.9%
#7 D.Atton punt 27 yards to the USF10, out of bounds at USF10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:2822% → 22%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
22.4%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete deep left to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF30 broken up by #36 W.BrownSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
21.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short right to #80 J.Porter caught at USF20, for 11 yards to the USF21 (#21 A.Locks), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
17.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #1 B.Rodgers thrown to USF38Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+1
17.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. rush right for 7 yards gain (1) to the USF28 (#36 W.Brown), out of bounds PENALTY USF Holding (#78 C.Cook) 10 yards from USF22 to USF12Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 19
OWN 12
0
17.3%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete short left to #80 J.Porter thrown to USF16Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 19
OWN 12
+21
16.5%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete deep left to #80 J.Porter caught at USF33, for 21 yards to the USF33 (#36 W.Brown), 1ST DOWNSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
18.9%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass incomplete, Spike PENALTY TEM Offside (#10 J.Joseph) 5 yards from USF33 to USF38. NO PLAYSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 5
OWN 38
+22
21.8%
Shotgun #3 M.Van Buren Jr. pass complete short left to #6 M.Reuben caught at TEM48, for 22 yards to the TEM40 fumbled by #6 M.Reuben at TEM45 recovered by TEM #21 A.Locks at TEM40, End Of PlaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:08
Shotgun #13 A.Sheppard rush middle for 34 yards gain to the USF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 03:08, 1ST DOWN #98 C.Hardin kick attempt good (H: #7 D.Atton, LS: #97 S.Wolfenden)
-57.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-19.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:01
Shotgun #29 H.Smith rush middle for 0 yards to the USF37 (#28 R.Jenkins)
-19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com